To Extend or Not Extend: Corey Knebel

[clancyphile]

Corey Knebel has been an outstanding relief option for the Brewers the last two years, totaling 55 saves and a 2.54 ERA.

 

Much of that was a dominant 2017, where his ERA was 1.76, and he posted 39 of those saves. In 2018, he was injured, and was a little untracked, but he soon returned to form. In fact, his K/BB ratio improved from 2017 (3.15) to 2018 (4.00). Both seasons was a K/9 of over 14.

 

In short, when Knebel's in, hitters will strike out.

 

So, is it time to think about an extension?

 

Knebel is arbitration-eligible in 2020, and a free agent after 2022. He has his age 27 season in 2019, where he will earn $5.13 million.

 

His past performance, while no guarantee of future production, certainly points to him being highly valuable in the Brewers' bullpen. But an extension for Knebel will likely still be expensive. In the wake of the 2017 season, I pushed for giving Knebel a four-year, $18 million extension.

 

Since then, I am still in favor of it, albeit it will be larger than earlier.

 

I'd propose going for five years:

Bonus: $1.5 million

2020: $5.5 million

2021: $5.5 million

2022: $6 million

2023: $6.5 million

2024: $7.5 million

 

Total: Five years, $32.5 million.

 

What do you think with regards to Knebel, extend, or don't extend?

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think that's even close to what the reality would be in extension talks. He got over $5 million in arbitration this year and has it for 2 more years. He's basically guaranteed to get raises assuming we tender him a contract, and is probably looking at around $14-16 million over the next 2 years alone. If Corey were to take an extension, you are probably looking moreso at a 3 year extension...possibly 4. Maybe those numbers would be 3/$24 million or 4/$36 million not including his 2019 salary...and frankly those are a bit optimistic and friendly towards the Brewers.

 

That said, I'm not interested in extending Corey. As much as I hate to say it, it looks highly likely that we'll have a 3-4 year window of competitiveness before needing to retool/rebuild. We have 3 years of control on Corey and the ability to back out at any time if he starts to suck or his arm falls off, and if we did have to cut him loose...we could allocate his projected salary to a different, productive player.

[tmwiese55]

I don't see the need. If this info is accurate and you have this year and three more you'll have him through our window if he's good and up until he's 31/32. Too bad for him but being a later riser to MLB he's the type to get hurt by the current system. But with the volatility of relief pitching and potential major injuries I don't see the need or advantage to lock anything in from the Brewers perspective unless it's really team friendly and he just wants the stability of putting a large chunk in the bank.

[istanbultaye]

If he could really be had at those numbers, I'd be on board, but it does seem a little low for what it would likely take to actually do it. Even at that price, I lean towards not wanting to lock in 5 years on a reliever, but his track record has been good enough that I wouldn't think it was a drastic mistake. Assuming it would take even more money to lock in 5 years on him, it would take it from being borderline acceptable to tie up payroll that long for a reliever to being a pass in my book. I just think that for the Brewers to maintain flexibility for the future, it's against their best interests to lock in contracts for such a long term. My loose guidelines for max length of contracts would probably be something like 3 years RP, 4 years SP, 5 years position player, if the players have the track record to back up a long term deal.

[jerichoholicninja]

Pass. Hope he stays healthy, continues to pitch well, and then cash him in for prospects.

[Warning Track Power]

Pass. Hope he stays healthy, continues to pitch well, and then cash him in for prospects.

This is precisely how the Brewers need to operate in order to remain competitive. Lifelong Brewers like Braun need to be a dying breed if we want the Brewers to continually be relevant. It will be hard, as I am as guilty as anyone with romanticizing the lifelong Brewer. However, I would rather see consistently winning baseball in Milwaukee.

[OldHeidelberg]

I remember at least one poster here advocating selling high on him last offseason and I thought it was ridiculous. Then about August I thought damn we should have sold high. In the playoffs I trusted him more than Hader. I would probably do the deal proposed but I wouldn't extend him for anything much larger than that, rather play it by ear the next 3 years.

[KeithStone53151]

Pass. Hope he stays healthy, continues to pitch well, and then cash him in for prospects.

This is precisely how the Brewers need to operate in order to remain competitive. Lifelong Brewers like Braun need to be a dying breed if we want the Brewers to continually be relevant. It will be hard, as I am as guilty as anyone with romanticizing the lifelong Brewer. However, I would rather see consistently winning baseball in Milwaukee.

 

Braun is really the wrong choice of a person to drive your point home. If not for the HGH/injury issues, he's exactly the type of generational player that you specifically do keep and try to build around. Weeks, Hart, Fielder, Knebel, Scooter, Khris Davis, etc...all very very good players in their prime, but there is a good reason in each case for those guys to not be extended into their mid-late 30s as a lifelong brewer. Spoiler alert, but Yelich might be the type of player we try to extend if possible...though if/when he wants $35 million per year we'll probably have to let him go to LA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wouldn't. Relievers are so volatile. The chance that Knebel is out of the league in 4 years is probably just as high as the chance he's still performing at a high level.

[Warning Track Power]

Pass. Hope he stays healthy, continues to pitch well, and then cash him in for prospects.

This is precisely how the Brewers need to operate in order to remain competitive. Lifelong Brewers like Braun need to be a dying breed if we want the Brewers to continually be relevant. It will be hard, as I am as guilty as anyone with romanticizing the lifelong Brewer. However, I would rather see consistently winning baseball in Milwaukee.

 

Braun is really the wrong choice of a person to drive your point home. If not for the HGH/injury issues, he's exactly the type of generational player that you specifically do keep and try to build around. Weeks, Hart, Fielder, Knebel, Scooter, Khris Davis, etc...all very very good players in their prime, but there is a good reason in each case for those guys to not be extended into their mid-late 30s as a lifelong brewer. Spoiler alert, but Yelich might be the type of player we try to extend if possible...though if/when he wants $35 million per year we'll probably have to let him go to LA.

I hear you. We are basically saying the same thing though. Weeks, Hart, Fielder...could be synonymous with Shaw, Knebel, Hader and Aguilar in time. Unfortunately, the Brewers should be selling most of these guys off before or during their contract year in order to constantly rotate talent through the system.

[KeithStone53151]

I hear you. We are basically saying the same thing though. Weeks, Hart, Fielder...could be synonymous with Shaw, Knebel, Hader and Aguilar in time. Unfortunately, the Brewers should be selling most of these guys off before or during their contract year in order to constantly rotate talent through the system.

 

Fair enough, I think we generally agree. As sad as it's going to be, the cream of the crop from this current team...guys like Hader, Knebel, Shaw, Arcia, Aguilar, etc...all should be cycled out at some point. None of those guys are great candidates for a long term deal, and that's especially sad for me regarding Hader as I anticipate him being fairly high on my all-time favorite Brewers list in due time. Yelich, maybe Hiura, and maybe(though unlikely) Burnes are probably the only guys we should consider extending significantly beyond team control years. If we could extend Hader of Arcia for an additional year beyond team control along with an option year, I'd probably be meh on the deal depending on $...but I'd be pretty annoyed if we bought out 3-4 years of Hader's free agency at what I imagine would have to be Chapman-level prices.

[3and2Fastball]

No chance I extend any relief pitcher, even Hader. The chances of them continuing to be elite year after year are historically slim.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm totally in the never extend a relief pitcher boat. But with the way pitching use is changing to multi-inning relievers, perhaps they won't be so "volatile" in the future. For example, last year Hader threw 80 innings. Just taking a quick look at the IP for two of the best RP is baseball shows that neither Kimbrel nor Jansen has ever thrown 80 innings in a season. Kimbrel was over 70 once in his career and Jansen has done it twice. Otherwise they've been in the 60's. More innings gives you a bigger sample and less volatility, in theory. Plus you're actually "getting what you pay for" so to speak.

[3and2Fastball]

It is interesting how the top relievers threw more innings last year. Treinen & Hader threw 80, & Diaz threw 73. Not sure if that is a new trend or what but all 3 put in extremely valuable seasons.

[reillymcshane]

I'd propose going for five years:

Bonus: $1.5 million

2020: $5.5 million

2021: $5.5 million

2022: $6 million

2023: $6.5 million

2024: $7.5 million

 

Total: Five years, $32.5 million.

 

What do you think with regards to Knebel, extend, or don't extend?

I'd extend Knebel for that contract - but I think he gets a more than what you are proposing.

[clancyphile]

Pass. Hope he stays healthy, continues to pitch well, and then cash him in for prospects.

This is precisely how the Brewers need to operate in order to remain competitive. Lifelong Brewers like Braun need to be a dying breed if we want the Brewers to continually be relevant. It will be hard, as I am as guilty as anyone with romanticizing the lifelong Brewer. However, I would rather see consistently winning baseball in Milwaukee.

 

Braun is really the wrong choice of a person to drive your point home. If not for the HGH/injury issues, he's exactly the type of generational player that you specifically do keep and try to build around. Weeks, Hart, Fielder, Knebel, Scooter, Khris Davis, etc...all very very good players in their prime, but there is a good reason in each case for those guys to not be extended into their mid-late 30s as a lifelong brewer. Spoiler alert, but Yelich might be the type of player we try to extend if possible...though if/when he wants $35 million per year we'll probably have to let him go to LA.

 

The big question is whether they want to be life-long Brewers. If they do, work out the extension. If not...

[adambr2]

I actually think that's a pretty good proposal by Clancy. I agree it's on the light side, but that's the risk mitigating factor. $32.5M is 3 times as much as Knebel has made in his entire career. He's a reliever. Rather than go for the huge money later, he might weigh the risks and decide to take the life changing guaranteed money, especially if he enjoys being here. It's hard to say, each individual is different in that regard. Villar didn't want to do it that way. Lucroy did.

[JosephC]

I wouldn't. Relievers are so volatile. The chance that Knebel is out of the league in 4 years is probably just as high as the chance he's still performing at a high level.

 

Agree 100%. Knebel is as good as anybody when he's on, but to this point he's been very volatile and I don't think the ever harnesses his control where he fits in that class of truly elite reliever. No question that he'll continue to have stretches where he is great...but at the same time this is a guy that had a 5+ ERA on August 21st and got sent to the minors.

 

If Jeffress and Hader continue what they did for most of last year....and say if someone like Woodruff gets put in the pen and dominates (and he's been very good as a MLB reliever so far)....I'd consider trade Knebel this season if he was pitching well and I got a good enough offer.

[phnxcrew]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

[rickh150]

For me, he's a candidate to be dealt in a Kluber deal. I see myself sweetening the deal consistently to get Kluber.

Ray, Knebel, Peralta?

[Oxy]

Ja, Knebel is far closer to the "trade high" category than the "offer an extension" category.

[agent39]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

 

 

 

Youd be very wrong to use the word "cheap" for any reason next time.

[82brewcrew82]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

 

 

 

Youd be very wrong to use the word "cheap" for any reason next time.

LOL!

[clancyphile]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

 

 

 

Youd be very wrong to use the word "cheap" for any reason next time.

 

JJ has pitched very well for Milwaukee, and I'm probably gonna do a Jeremy Jeffress post in my "To Extend or Not Extend" in the next couple of days...

[HiAndTight]

I don't think that's even close to what the reality would be in extension talks. He got over $5 million in arbitration this year and has it for 2 more years. He's basically guaranteed to get raises assuming we tender him a contract, and is probably looking at around $14-16 million over the next 2 years alone. If Corey were to take an extension, you are probably looking moreso at a 3 year extension...possibly 4. Maybe those numbers would be 3/$24 million or 4/$36 million not including his 2019 salary...and frankly those are a bit optimistic and friendly towards the Brewers.

 

That said, I'm not interested in extending Corey. As much as I hate to say it, it looks highly likely that we'll have a 3-4 year window of competitiveness before needing to retool/rebuild. We have 3 years of control on Corey and the ability to back out at any time if he starts to suck or his arm falls off, and if we did have to cut him loose...we could allocate his projected salary to a different, productive player.

 

 

I don't know if I agree on this part....just far, far too many unknowns at this time, but I like the direction we're moving and feel like Stearns is going to keep that window open year in and year out.

 

But I'll just say across the board, I don't see any reason to extend ALMOST any reliever with whom we have multiple years of control left.

 

 

Look at how many guys we've had who've dominanted and then struggled BADLY shortly after. Axford, Kolb(to a lesser degree, but he had a good year), Turnbow.

 

There seem to be about 40 relievers in baseball each year who were great the year before who become terrible and 40 who go the other way. That's a bit of hyperbole, but still. It's just too volatile a job and we have him through him prime for 3 more years. That's perfect.

 

Why take on ALL the risk ourselves?