Wade Miley to Astros - 1 yr / $4.5m

[Roderick]

I would have guessed a 2yr/$15M deal for him (so shows what I know). At this price I am disappointed in not resigning him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would have guessed a 2yr/$15M deal for him (so shows what I know). At this price I am disappointed in not resigning him.

 

I too would have signed him at the price the Astros got him at. Who knows if that was even an option for the Brewers, though? Negotiations don't happen in a vacuum.

 

Still, solid signing for the Astros. Pretty cheap insurance in case Keuchel signs elsewhere. While Keuchel has obviously had a ton more success and is much more durable than Miley, they are similar style pitchers. And I'm happy for Wade, as he seemed like a pretty cool, laid back dude who was a good fit personality wise in the clubhouse. I also appreciate that he worked with the Brewers to stay in the organization instead of opting out of his deal after getting hurt in Spring Training. His presence in the rotation in August and September may have been the difference between making the playoffs and not.

 

That said, I think the Brewers will go hard after Keuchel now, and perhaps Gio as a fallback. They could always make a trade play for MadBum or Kluber as well. They could also sign a few rebound candidates like they did last year with Miley and Gallardo. A lot of starting pitching options are still on the table if the team wants to go down that road. Even with Miley's loss, I still feel much better about the starting pitching going into the season.

[clancyphile]

Well, I figured Miley was a likely candidate to return - especially if his price wasn't too hefty (which it wasn't).

 

I thought he'd get $7-8M - maybe even a two-year deal. I guess teams are skeptical, which I can't blame them. Still, at the price, he is a good deal. And Miley is from Louisiana, went to college there, so he's a lot closer to home, which might mean something to him.

 

My next guess is that the Crew are looking for someone better, which might mean they are going for Keuchel. Or perhaps they want Gio instead of Miley.

 

In the end, they might just wait to see if something good falls to them - and if not go into spring training with what they have.

 

I'm okay with a Chacin, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Anderson rotation... they're the five healthiest guys. Nelson and Davies missed a lot of time, and have the options to have them start in San Antonio to get back into the routine.

[MrTPlush]

Well, I figured Miley was a likely candidate to return - especially if his price wasn't too hefty (which it wasn't).

 

I thought he'd get $7-8M - maybe even a two-year deal. I guess teams are skeptical, which I can't blame them. Still, at the price, he is a good deal. And Miley is from Louisiana, went to college there, so he's a lot closer to home, which might mean something to him.

 

My next guess is that the Crew are looking for someone better, which might mean they are going for Keuchel. Or perhaps they want Gio instead of Miley.

 

In the end, they might just wait to see if something good falls to them - and if not go into spring training with what they have.

 

I'm okay with a Chacin, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Anderson rotation... they're the five healthiest guys. Nelson and Davies missed a lot of time, and have the options to have them start in San Antonio to get back into the routine.

 

There really is zero reason to waste an option on Nelson to start the year. They can just have him start the year on the DL and then have him go rehab in San Antonio. It isn't like Nelson would care either way. He is collecting an MLB salary regardless.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Well, I figured Miley was a likely candidate to return - especially if his price wasn't too hefty (which it wasn't).

 

I thought he'd get $7-8M - maybe even a two-year deal. I guess teams are skeptical, which I can't blame them. Still, at the price, he is a good deal. And Miley is from Louisiana, went to college there, so he's a lot closer to home, which might mean something to him.

 

My next guess is that the Crew are looking for someone better, which might mean they are going for Keuchel. Or perhaps they want Gio instead of Miley.

 

In the end, they might just wait to see if something good falls to them - and if not go into spring training with what they have.

 

I'm okay with a Chacin, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Anderson rotation... they're the five healthiest guys. Nelson and Davies missed a lot of time, and have the options to have them start in San Antonio to get back into the routine.

 

I keep seeing this - what happens when Nelson and Davies are fully healthy then? Do the Brewers then burn options on the other guys and play musical starting pitchers for whole season? If everyone is healthy and performing they are going to have to come up with some creative DL excuses. If the younger guys (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) are all performing well, it's going to look really bad to option one of them back to AAA to make room for a more veteran starter - particularly Davies. That's why I think if he's healthy in Spring Training, Davies is going to get traded. I know there is some flexibility with shifting a couple younger guys between the pen, rotation, and AAA - but you can only fit so many established MLB arms on a 25 man roster.

[LouisEly]

 

Chacin

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Peralta

Burnes

Nelson

 

Am I missing anyone?

 

Guerra sort of. And "openers"?

Guerra and Houser, who is out of options, profile as that eighth "emergency starter"/long reliever. Then you have Brown and Supak at AAA, and Wilkerson as your 12th emergency-emergency starter.

 

Hopefully what this means is that Nelson is ready to go, and thus no room at the inn. Perhaps they were trying to trade Anderson but didn't find the right value in return; and if guys like Miley are getting 1/$4.5M without having to give up any players in return, then I don't blame teams for not wanting to offer much value for Anderson. Anderson has a good changeup, and was actually better against LHB last year (.677 OPS-A) than RHB (.785 OPS-A).

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I figured Miley was a likely candidate to return - especially if his price wasn't too hefty (which it wasn't).

 

I thought he'd get $7-8M - maybe even a two-year deal. I guess teams are skeptical, which I can't blame them. Still, at the price, he is a good deal. And Miley is from Louisiana, went to college there, so he's a lot closer to home, which might mean something to him.

 

My next guess is that the Crew are looking for someone better, which might mean they are going for Keuchel. Or perhaps they want Gio instead of Miley.

 

In the end, they might just wait to see if something good falls to them - and if not go into spring training with what they have.

 

I'm okay with a Chacin, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Anderson rotation... they're the five healthiest guys. Nelson and Davies missed a lot of time, and have the options to have them start in San Antonio to get back into the routine.

 

I keep seeing this - what happens when Nelson and Davies are fully healthy then? Do the Brewers then burn options on the other guys and play musical starting pitchers for whole season? If everyone is healthy and performing they are going to have to come up with some creative DL excuses. If the younger guys (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) are all performing well, it's going to look really bad to option one of them back to AAA to make room for a more veteran starter - particularly Davies. That's why I think if he's healthy in Spring Training, Davies is going to get traded. I know there is some flexibility with shifting a couple younger guys between the pen, rotation, and AAA - but you can only fit so many established MLB arms on a 25 man roster.

 

If all 5 pitchers are healthy and effective, I'll take that "problem" all day long. And they don't necessarily have to option them, and they certainly don't have to play games with the DL. Woodruff and/or Peralta could go to the BP. They will be shuffling guys in the BP anyhow, that's why they want at least a couple guys with options.

 

Look at the alternative. You would rather have exactly 5 starters going into the season and hope they hold up for 6 months? And that all 5 are really good?

[Roderick]

 

Chacin

Anderson

Davies

Woodruff

Peralta

Burnes

Nelson

 

Am I missing anyone?

 

Guerra sort of. And "openers"?

Guerra and Houser, who is out of options, profile as that eighth "emergency starter"/long reliever. Then you have Brown and Supak at AAA, and Wilkerson as your 12th emergency-emergency starter.

 

Hopefully what this means is that Nelson is ready to go, and thus no room at the inn. Perhaps they were trying to trade Anderson but didn't find the right value in return; and if guys like Miley are getting 1/$4.5M without having to give up any players in return, then I don't blame teams for not wanting to offer much value for Anderson. Anderson has a good changeup, and was actually better against LHB last year (.677 OPS-A) than RHB (.785 OPS-A).

 

Yeah, if Miley only gets a 1yr/$4.5M deal, that means the Chase Anderson contract should only have a little surplus trade value (but probably closer to no surplus after the Brewers held off of playoff roster). So you get a B prospect in A ball to clear his contract.

[RobDeer 45]

I have mixed thoughts on this. My respect for Miley grew a lot, after what he did down the stretch. That said, I didn't think he was anyone we should be trying to force on the roster. Also, didn't he outperform his norm last year? As others said, there is also injury concern. He just seems like a candidate for regression next year. All that said, I will miss him a little. He cracked me up. Just seemed like he was straight out of a Busch Light commercial. Thank you for your service Wade.

[long ball]

I have two thoughts on this:

 

1) The Brewers didn't really want Miley back if he only signed for $4.5m guaranteed. This is consistent with Haudricourt's tweet yesterday stating he has heard they weren't interested in re-signing him.

 

2) The Astros signing Miley is enough proof for me that the Brewers should have been interested in bringing him back.

[Lathund]

Will be really interesting to see what Miley does going forward.

 

Miley in 2017: 128 ERA-, 106 xFIP-

Miley in 2018: 63 ERA-, 106 xFIP-

 

On the one hand he did revamp his pitch arsenal completely. and with the way he used his Cutter and the weak groundballs it kept inducing you see just the results exceeded the peripherals, and how he'd be the type of pitcher to exceed his xFIP. But at the same time, K/BB ratio (Which is what accounts for most of xFIP) is an excellent predictor of future results, and if you have a 5.6 K/9 and 3 BB/9 you don't have any margin of error. Get hit slightly harder, have some bad BABIP luck, and it can get ugly quickly.

 

I keep flip-flopping back and forth between how this will last (even if it'll be more like mid 3s ERA) or will crash and burn.

[mtrebs]

I’m surprised at the lack of love towards Miley. I thought he was our best pitcher over the entire season, and especially at the end of the season and postseason. $4.5 million is nothing for a quality starting pitcher. Even though we have a lot of young talent, you can never have enough depth, especially at that price. We won’t be able to sign a better FA pitcher for anything close to $4.5 million per year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’m surprised at the lack of love towards Miley. I thought he was our best pitcher over the entire season, and especially at the end of the season and postseason. $4.5 million is nothing for a quality starting pitcher. Even though we have a lot of young talent, you can never have enough depth, especially at that price. We won’t be able to sign a better FA pitcher for anything close to $4.5 million per year.

 

He was the team's best pitcher, when available. Pretty big caveat. I would have preferred to resign him, but who knows if he would have even resigned with the Brewers for that kind of price? I'm ok with the team moving on, as I think they have a plan in place.

[jerichoholicninja]

What will be really interesting is if the Astros treat him like a "regular" starting pitcher and try as get as many innings out of him as possible each game or use him how the Brewers did. And then what his numbers look like.

[adambr2]

The fact that the Brewers weren't even interested in Miley at all tells me that their advanced analytics told them they don't think what Miley did in 2018 is sustainable.

 

As good as the price tag looks, I'll trust them on that. They've been right far more than not.

[rickh150]

I like Miley, but the fact that we didn't make an effort to bring him back makes me think we have bigger plans in the works, which makes me happy.

 

Or no further plans..... until the deadline.

[clancyphile]

Will be really interesting to see what Miley does going forward.

 

Miley in 2017: 128 ERA-, 106 xFIP-

Miley in 2018: 63 ERA-, 106 xFIP-

 

On the one hand he did revamp his pitch arsenal completely. and with the way he used his Cutter and the weak groundballs it kept inducing you see just the results exceeded the peripherals, and how he'd be the type of pitcher to exceed his xFIP. But at the same time, K/BB ratio (Which is what accounts for most of xFIP) is an excellent predictor of future results, and if you have a 5.6 K/9 and 3 BB/9 you don't have any margin of error. Get hit slightly harder, have some bad BABIP luck, and it can get ugly quickly.

 

I keep flip-flopping back and forth between how this will last (even if it'll be more like mid 3s ERA) or will crash and burn.

 

On the one hand, the revamped arsenal is something to keep in mind. The sabremetrics say one thing, the results say another - which is it?

 

Between the injury history and the fact you have that huge disparity between the sabremetrics and actual results, I would have made Miley an offer, likely for one year, but with a couple of team options, ala Chase Anderson.

[reillymcshane]

The thing that scared me most about Miley was that he gave up 3 HR last year in 80 IP. The year before it was 25 HR in 157 IP.

 

Some point to the cutter that Miley refined last year. But Miley still gave up about the same number of walks as he usually does, and he struck out guys at a lower rate than ever.

 

And then I get back to the HRs. Only 3 surrendered is extraordinary. Can that be sustained?

 

In the end, what is real? I'm guessing somewhere in between - when means he's a back-of-the-rotation arm. For $4.5M, that's not a bad deal for Houston.

 

For Milwaukee, perhaps they just feel they can do better - either with what they have, or with what they can sign. We shall see.

[HiAndTight]

I'm kinda indifferent to this move. I'm hoping that it suggests the Brewers have a better option in mind...but I don't think injuries were a big factor in leading him walk. He's been a really durable pitcher with the exception of that oblique last year.

 

 

That said, I really hope this isn't a sign that Kuechel is a possible landing spot here as he's going to get a big deal. I'd rather just roll with Gio one more year for around 6-7, or better yet, pick up some talented young relievers with options left and try and replace what we're likely losing in the pen.

[Point Beer Is Best]

For Milwaukee, perhaps they just feel they can do better - either with what they have, or with what they can sign. We shall see.

 

That's where I'm at. I think they are still eyeing someone like Dallas Keuchel as being worth an investment to improve the group, but signing someone like Miley at the expense of having one of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta in the rotation wasn't seen as worthwhile.

[MNBrew]

^^I agree. I really liked what Miley turned out to be last year. But if the chances of significant regression are too great, and if signing him amounted to only a lateral type of move vs. a legit upgrade, I can go along with the idea of the Brewers not really pursuing him.

 

What seems to have received little airplay in any of the Keuchel speculation/discussions is that Stearns has some history with Keuchel via the years Stearns was in Houston. Maybe it's insignificant in the scheme of things, but if the Brewers are truly "in the game" still, I wonder if that connection plays into it at all.