NL Central Standings Predictions

[dlk9s]

That would certainly be something if the NL Central was as competitive as PECOTA thinks it will be.

[RollieTime]

Cardinals: 94-68

Brewers: 92-70

Reds: 85-77

Cubs: 84-78

Pirates: 73-89

[Brew crew 92]

Brewers:97-65

Cards:87-75

Cubs:84-78

Reds:82-80

Pirates:77-85

 

First time poster. I feel like I’m sandbagging this great brewers team, but this year’s national league stronger than last years

[Eye Black]

After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

 

The new FanGraphs projections...

 

Brewers 87-75

Cardinals 84-78

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 79-83

Reds 79-83

 

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, [sarcasm]or someone hacked their site.[/sarcasm]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

 

The new FanGraphs projections...

 

Brewers 87-75

Cardinals 84-78

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 79-83

Reds 79-83

 

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, [sarcasm]or someone hacked their site.[/sarcasm]

 

Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?

[TURBO]

I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

 

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

 

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.

[Eye Black]

After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

 

The new FanGraphs projections...

 

Brewers 87-75

Cardinals 84-78

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 79-83

Reds 79-83

 

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, [sarcasm]or someone hacked their site.[/sarcasm]

 

Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?

 

Well it has already changed back closer to what it was previously, so maybe the hacking theory wasn't so far off? I wish I would have taken a screenshot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central.

 

The new FanGraphs projections...

 

Brewers 87-75

Cardinals 84-78

Cubs 80-82

Pirates 79-83

Reds 79-83

 

It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, [sarcasm]or someone hacked their site.[/sarcasm]

 

Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look?

 

Well it has already changed back closer to what it was previously, so maybe the hacking theory wasn't so far off? I wish I would have taken a screenshot.

 

Yeah, I see that the Brewers are back to a 82-win projection. Did Yelich have a bad breakfast burrito or something this morning? Likely the more probable explanation is that Fangraphs is run by a Cub fan LOL

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

 

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

 

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.

 

The fact that they change seemingly hourly at times for no legitimate reason certainly points to that. Although is was fun to see the mountains of Cub fans go nuts with the PECOTA projections came out.

 

Truth is, I know there is algorithms and a a lot of science that goes into determining these projections, but there is no way that they totally eliminate human bias.

[Lathund]

I'd imagine that it showed either the combined ZiPS+Steamer, or ZiPS only for a while, and that what's currently there (Brewers with 82 wins) is Steamer but with Moose added. Or that they're doing some work on the depth chart / playing time side of things, which can obviously affect the team outcome for projections even while not changing any individual ones.

[JosephC]

I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

 

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

 

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.

 

80% agreed with what you say. Prior to 2017 I would have agreed with you 100%, but the previous off-season I claimed all these projection systems were nuts for predicting such a dramatic fall-off for both Braun and Villar. They got both of those right.

 

I do pay attention to these projection systems and find some value in them. But just to pull a number out of my rear end, I'd probably put about 20% stock into a projection and about 80% stock into the historical data. What I don't understand are all the people who go nuts when they disagree with a projection. It's one thing to disagree, but why go nuts thinking one's personal opinion has any more value than the projection system? Neither party has a crystal ball.

 

PS - The "go nuts" statement is not aimed at any member of this forum, but a couple people I know that don't post here.

[Lathund]

One factor that will always play into projections is that they can only project based on the players the team has. Injuries can only be taken into account to a small degree, but more importantly a projection system can't project team selling and buying at the trade deadline. That alone will take a few wins from the worst teams and add them to some of the better teams. A projection system could be 100% correct on a players true skill, and very accurate on their actual production, and still be way off on team win totals. You could even take it a step further, they could get the run differential right and still be off by several wins due to sequencing and performance in 1-run games etc. Projections are really useful because they provide a very different perspective to what we as individuals predict and guess. They'll miss out on some things, but they'll also not be affected by sentiment or past achievements or any other way that us humans misinterpret data and other input.

 

If nothing else, take advantage of projections that differ significantly from your own beliefs. There's *something* that makes them believe or not believe in a team or player, so find out what that is. Maybe there are other factors that make up for those things that the projection system can't see, in which case you could ignore it entirely, or take it into account in the sense that it adds some risk and volatility. But maybe you've missed something in your own analysis, something that a purely data-driven model would catch but a human wouldn't.

[sveumrules]

I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

 

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

 

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.

 

Every team in MLB uses some sort of internal projection system to guide their decision making process. The reason people like to discuss the publicly available systems is because they act as the closest approximation thereof.

 

Given the massive proliferation of data in the game, one of the few remaining avenues a small market team like Milwaukee has to gain a competitive advantage is to be able to better parse that mountain of data to produce more accurate projections & more effective game day strategies.

 

Which new stats are you referring to? Which old stats do you believe actually do mean jack squat?

[lukevan]

Brewers 91

Cardinals 90

Cubs 85

Reds 83

Pirates 71

[Dead Simmons]

I put zero stock in those "expert' predictions, and of course, fan predictions are jaded by hope and team loyalty. The only thing I would put money on is that no Central team will get a WC. We had 4 teams over .500 last year and Cincy WILL be better. (happy birthday Rockies and Phils/Nats)

 

I can't make a good prediction on the Brewers/Cubs because I don't know enough. What I know the most about is the Cardinals. My gut says 90+ wins. If Carpenter breaks his legs: 95+ wins.

 

On paper the Cards have the best pitching staff in the NL...WHEN HEALTHY...which ain't often. Overall defense is weak, only 3 plus glove men in Bader, Wong and Goldie. Base running is bad. Managing is mediocre and uninspired but a helluva upgrade over Matheny.

 

The hitting is decent, but every Central team is as well. So why will the Cards win 90? Martinez to the pen and Wainwright to pasture or spot duty. Those 2 "Aces" were at 90 pitches in the 4th inning every other start last year (when not on DL). No staff could overcome that!

 

I think the race will go down to the last week AGAIN with the same usual 3 suspects as I think predictions of a Cubs demise is woefully premature.

[KeithStone53151]

I put zero stock in those "expert' predictions, and of course, fan predictions are jaded by hope and team loyalty. The only thing I would put money on is that no Central team will get a WC. We had 4 teams over .500 last year and Cincy WILL be better. (happy birthday Rockies and Phils/Nats)

 

I can't make a good prediction on the Brewers/Cubs because I don't know enough. What I know the most about is the Cardinals. My gut says 90+ wins. If Carpenter breaks his legs: 95+ wins.

 

On paper the Cards have the best pitching staff in the NL...WHEN HEALTHY...which ain't often. Overall defense is weak, only 3 plus glove men in Bader, Wong and Goldie. Base running is bad. Managing is mediocre and uninspired but a helluva upgrade over Matheny.

 

The hitting is decent, but every Central team is as well. So why will the Cards win 90? Martinez to the pen and Wainwright to pasture or spot duty. Those 2 "Aces" were at 90 pitches in the 4th inning every other start last year (when not on DL). No staff could overcome that!

 

I think the race will go down to the last week AGAIN with the same usual 3 suspects as I think predictions of a Cubs demise is woefully premature.

 

I have a couple Cardinals questions for you. Are you concerned about O'Neill and Martinez getting less atbats, or generally about your team being too RH? Your only LH options are Carpenter, Wong, and Fowler(S)...and frankly Fowler should never play, and even Wong will sit a decent number of games for Gyorko and Munoz. Do you have concerns about the rotation with Martinez moving to the bullpen and Wainwright moving to LR(that's the vibe I got from you)? Mikolas, Flaherty, Wacha, and...? I wouldn't count on 180 innings from Reyes. I feel like the Cardinals have a ton of talent, but it doesn't really fit together as well as it could to optimize the talent. They would definitely get the greatest benefit from the DH of any NL Central club, but that's not reality right now.

[Dead Simmons]

I put zero stock in those "expert' predictions, and of course, fan predictions are jaded by hope and team loyalty. The only thing I would put money on is that no Central team will get a WC. We had 4 teams over .500 last year and Cincy WILL be better. (happy birthday Rockies and Phils/Nats)

 

I can't make a good prediction on the Brewers/Cubs because I don't know enough. What I know the most about is the Cardinals. My gut says 90+ wins. If Carpenter breaks his legs: 95+ wins.

 

On paper the Cards have the best pitching staff in the NL...WHEN HEALTHY...which ain't often. Overall defense is weak, only 3 plus glove men in Bader, Wong and Goldie. Base running is bad. Managing is mediocre and uninspired but a helluva upgrade over Matheny.

 

The hitting is decent, but every Central team is as well. So why will the Cards win 90? Martinez to the pen and Wainwright to pasture or spot duty. Those 2 "Aces" were at 90 pitches in the 4th inning every other start last year (when not on DL). No staff could overcome that!

 

I think the race will go down to the last week AGAIN with the same usual 3 suspects as I think predictions of a Cubs demise is woefully premature.

 

I have a couple Cardinals questions for you. Are you concerned about O'Neill and Martinez getting less atbats, or generally about your team being too RH? Your only LH options are Carpenter, Wong, and Fowler(S)...and frankly Fowler should never play, and even Wong will sit a decent number of games for Gyorko and Munoz. Do you have concerns about the rotation with Martinez moving to the bullpen and Wainwright moving to LR(that's the vibe I got from you)? Mikolas, Flaherty, Wacha, and...? I wouldn't count on 180 innings from Reyes. I feel like the Cardinals have a ton of talent, but it doesn't really fit together as well as it could to optimize the talent. They would definitely get the greatest benefit from the DH of any NL Central club, but that's not reality right now.

 

1) O'Neill and JMart getting less AB's: Yes, I'm concerned. Fowler is putrid with a bat in his hands, and the Cards always play the man with the biggest contract, the old "shoot-self-foot strategy.

2) concerns about the rotation with Martinez moving to the bullpen and Wainwright moving to LR(that's the vibe I got from you) No. Cards system is rife with arms. I'd never heard of Flaherty and others before last season.

3)Wong will sit a number of games for Gyorko and Munoz I think the addition of Goldie will push Gyorko out of the lineup and off the team. I have no clue what they do to get the best of Munoz, save starts vs. lefties.

4) Cards have tons of talent but can't optimize it. You hit the nail on the head there, Kieth. The GM should have been fired years ago, WITH his flunky, Matheny.

[Brew crew 92]

Vegas-2017-72.5(15.5 wins short)

2018-84.5(11.5 wins short)

2019-84.5(probably short again)

 

Fangraphs-2017-74(14 wins short)

2018-79(17 wins short)

2019-87(probably short again)

 

Prospectus-2017-76(12 wins short)

2018-86(10 wins short)

2019-88(probably short again)

 

All three terrible read on the Brewers baseball team. I personally think our elite depth,bullpen,front office brain power,ie shifting,pitching game plan,... outperforms there algorithms

[Pugger]

Brewers: 137

Cardinals: 86

Pirates: 79

Reds: 76

Cubs: 3

 

[Pugger]

I can't believe anyone puts any stock in any of these prediction systems... What they pump out is no more accurate than what we as fans put out there...

 

Same with all these new stats that mean jack squat.

 

The games gotta be played, in the end, it sorts itself out.

 

I would guess the only redeeming thing about these projections is it gives us something to chew on until Spring Training starts in earnest. They are just speculating like the rest of us.

[Montezuma]

Allow me to say that the NL Central is going to be a bloodbath this year. The Reds are greatly improved, Cards with the addition of Paul Goldschmidt will keep Saint Louis in contention. The Cubs did little in the offseason and their owner is not spending this year. The Pirates are dangerous, still. Here is my predictions.

 

Brewers 92

Cardinals 89

Reds 86

Cubs 82

Pirates 70

[BrewFan130]

Projections are fine until Opening Day and then they become irrelevant. There is not one team in the NL Central that I’d take lightly. I think the last 2 seasons have showed the Brewers players and fans how important every win is.

2017 Brewers fall 1 game short of a Wild Card spot

2018 Brewers win game 163 to win NL Central Division

2018 Brewers fall 1 game short of World Series

[Eye Black]

The Cubs ZiPS graphic was released last week.

 

Based on the addition of Moustakas at 2B, below is the updated projected ZiPS fWAR for the Brewers and the rest of the NL Central based on each team’s ZiPS graphic (doesn’t include all bench players).

 

Cubs (43.9 WAR)

Starters 16.6

Bullpen 5.0

Position Players 22.3

 

Brewers (41.8 WAR)

Starters 11.4

Bullpen 5.8

Position Players 24.6

 

Cardinals (41.3 WAR)

Starters 12.9

Bullpen 4.2

Position Players 24.2

 

Reds (37.4 WAR)

Starters 10.3

Bullpen 4.3

Position Players 22.8

 

Pirates (35.3 WAR)

Starters 11.3

Bullpen 4.7

Position Players 19.3

 

As mentioned previously, these projected WAR totals only take into account players shown on the ZiPS graphics above, so it doesn’t account for positional role players such as Ben Gamel and Eric Thames.

 

Assuming all teams get approximately the same production from their role players, below is a rough translation of the ZiPS WAR into projected win totals:

 

Cubs - 90 wins

Brewers - 88 wins

Cardinals - 87 wins

Reds - 83 wins

Pirates - 81 wins

[Dead Simmons]

Projections are fine until Opening Day and then they become irrelevant. There is not one team in the NL Central that I’d take lightly. I think the last 2 seasons have showed the Brewers players and fans how important every win is.

2017 Brewers fall 1 game short of a Wild Card spot

2018 Brewers win game 163 to win NL Central Division

2018 Brewers fall 1 game short of World Series

Yipes! You guys could save a lot of time and angst by skipping the first 161 games.

[Eye Black]

Reminder for those who haven’t already predicted win totals for the NL Central teams, get your guesses in by the end of February if you would like to participate. I will tally and average everyone’s submissions next weekend.