NL Central Standings Predictions

[Eye Black]

Brewers: 137

Cardinals: 86

Pirates: 79

Reds: 76

Cubs: 3

Wow, that would be great!... but this might also be a good time to point out that extreme outliers likely won’t be counted in the final tabulation.

[Tbadder]

Cards 94

Cubs. 88

Brewers 86

Reds. 86

Pirates. 77

 

I expect big regression in the bullpen. Santana trade was a mistake. Jimmy just too big of a question mark. Starters in general lack ceiling, although they have decent floor. Braun gonna be tough to justify. 1st base doesn’t fill me with confidence. Loss of the pitching coach to division rival was another mistake. I’m just a nervous nelly I hope.

[ewitkows]

Brewers 95

Cubs 92

Cards 90

Pirates 81

Reds 79

[LouisEly]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

 

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cards 94

Cubs. 88

Brewers 86

Reds. 86

Pirates. 77

 

I expect big regression in the bullpen. Santana trade was a mistake. Jimmy just too big of a question mark. Starters in general lack ceiling, although they have decent floor. Braun gonna be tough to justify. 1st base doesn’t fill me with confidence. Loss of the pitching coach to division rival was another mistake. I’m just a nervous nelly I hope.

 

Wow I hope you're a nervous nelly too. I think your outlook is probably the absolute floor for this team.

[tbbrewers]

Brewers 89

Cards 88

Cubs 87

Pirates 81

Reds 80

[clancyphile]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

 

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.

 

The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part. For the Crew's sake, I hope it is not. I think they're in the 80-85 win range - not enough to beat the Brewers, but decent enough that maybe Theo Epstein will spend more on free agents and try to make some deadline deals...

[Bob Skube Snacks]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing.)

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

 

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.

 

The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part.

 

I detest Chicago teams as much as any red-blooded Milwaukee-born ought to, but statements like this just make me laugh.

 

They tied us for the division a year ago. While I agree they’re not 100-win material, they ain’t going anywhere for a little while. The window is wide-open for both them, us and the Cardinals. And the Reds are at least in the same room as the window for the first time in a few years. The Pirates could be, but they’d rather live in a windowless, furnished apartment because it’s cheaper.

[clancyphile]

So 35-year-old John Lester and 35-year-old Cole Hamels are not candidates to regress, the loss of Justin Wilson from the bullpen will have no impact, Brandon Morrow's and Yu Darvish's elbows are certain to recover, Addison Russell's 40 game suspension will have no impact and he won't be a distraction when he returns, 38-year-old Ben Zobrist isn't a candidate for regression, Baez isn't a candidate for regression...

 

The Cubs have as many question marks as the Brewers, if not more.

 

The Cubs' window ended in 2018. The only question is if 2019 will be bad enough to break any denial on their part.

 

I detest Chicago teams as much as any red-blooded Milwaukee-born ought to, but statements like this just make me laugh.

 

They tied us for the division a year ago. While I agree they’re not 100-win material, they ain’t going anywhere for a little while. The window is wide-open for both them, us and the Cardinals. And the Reds are at least in the same room as the window for the first time in a few years. The Pirates could be, but they’d rather live in a windowless, furnished apartment because it’s cheaper.

 

Between age, injuries, a crappy farm system, and drama, I don't see the Cubs as any better, and likely to be a whole lot worse. Quintana is their best pitcher, and after that, it's pray the pitcher in question keeps it together.

 

I think the Cubs are an 80-85 win team. Worth respecting, but on the downward trajectory. They're too good to get the pieces they need to rebuild properly via the draft, and right now, too many of their pieces are overpriced and old.

 

I expect that by 2020, they will crater.

[owbc]

BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.

[Warning Track Power]

While still super early in the offseason to make predictions with any sense of comfort, I will go with:

 

Brewers 88

Cubs 88

Cardinals 87

Reds 80

Pirates 79

 

On paper, the Brewers are the same or maybe better than last season. However, I just see an absolutely brutal 76 divisional games, another bruising 25 games against the NL East contenders (Phillies, Braves, Nationals and Mets), 14 more against the NL West contenders (Dodgers and Rockies) and 4 games against the Astros. 119 games of what should be very competitive baseball.

[Eye Black]

I will likely alter these predictions when Spring Training starts since more of the free agents and trade targets will have landed with clubs, but this is where I would predict things currently:

 

Cubs - 90

Brewers - 88

Cardinals - 88

Reds - 81

Pirates - 77

 

As others have mentioned I think the National League on the whole is going to be tough sledding this season, and the Central is easily going to be the best division top to bottom.

 

If Kris Bryant proves fully recovered and healthy I think the Cubs are still likely the most talented offense from leadoff through the #8 hitter. The Brewers have definitely closed the gap and the Reds have a nice looking offense, but the Cubs are still a slight step above, IMO. I do think the pitching is where the Cubs could see the biggest swing in results. They have big question marks in both their rotation and bullpen. They could get nothing from Darvish and Hamels, or they could be borderline All-Stars.

 

I think Goldschmidt is going to absolutely rake in St. Louis this season and Jack Flaherty is on the verge of becoming a front of the rotation type arm. I think the Cardinals achilles heel is going to be their defense which brings me to one of my favorite photos...

 

 

I actually think the Reds have pieced together a decent rotation, but could still use additions to their bullpen. Offensively they are going to be fun to watch (when they aren’t playing the Brewers).

 

The Pirates have some good arms in the rotation and the bullpen, but I am not confident in the Pirates to score runs this year.

[Ennder]

BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.

 

 

No they haven't. I brought up the fact that I thought the Cubs were going to be a long term dynasty 3 years ago and mid season last year felt like they had made enough bad moves that their window was going to close in the next few years. Most people said I was crazy at the time. The Cubs looked like a team that was going to dominate the division for a good 10 years and now they look like they are in the running for the next few years. Almost nobody agreed with me mid season last year, that certainly isn't predicting the downfall for years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

BF.net has been predicting the downfall of the Cubs for years. The Cubs improved their record in 2018 and they would have cruised to another division title if it wasn't for the uprising of the pesky Brewers. The Brewers have plenty of 30+ year old regression candidates as well and our starting rotation is a complete mystery. It's logical to knock wins off both the Brewers and Cubs in 2019 and it's not clear which team should lose more wins--as shown by the wide array of win predictions in this thread.

 

As Ennder pointed out, it's not like we've been saying they are going to crater back to where they were when theo and company took over (now that they are acting like a huge market team, a complete teardown is unlikely). It's simply that most of the moves they have made since winning the WS haven't improved their chances to win short term while drastically thinning out their organizational depth they developed over 4-5 painful years of building. Their trade for quintana cost them Jimenez and Cease, and it didn't move the needle on the mlb team nearly enough. They looked like a juggernaut for the next 5-7 years after their WS win, but most of their pitching moves since then have been bad and several of their young position players have been underwhelming compared to what they were projected to become.

[Eye Black]

So far ZiPS projections have been unveiled for two NL Central teams. Below are the ZiPS WAR projections by position for the Cardinals and Reds.

 

 

CARDINALS

 

 

 

REDS

[tmwiese55]

While I generally agree with the notion that the Cubs have botched what should have been a basically dominant window here for a while. I also think they're being underrated in this thread overall for this season. Essentially I think they should be the clear favorite. Not in the sense of say how the Indians were in the AL Central last year or anything. The division is just too deep for that level of confidence. Just that I think it's obvious to me if you had to put all your money on one team right now from these teams they'd be the one you'd go with. That's not saying its a lock as all 3 could easily win.

 

But we seem to be forgetting we only tied them last year and they played great pretty much the whole second half as well. Yelich just went out of his mind for us. They're a really good deep team and Bryant should be back to his old self. There's a lot that could go wrong for them too just like everyone else. But I'm sure once the over/unders and odds come out they'll be the favorite. Before you say, yes I know that's not a pure indiciation because they factor betting in but it's still a good gauge.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1. I don't like the Cubs' organization depth beyond their 25 man roster compared to the Brewers or Cards

 

2. I also think there is more concern with their pitching staff than the Brewers and Cards - they may have more names but they are also older, more injury-riddled, and much more expensive

 

If you look at the division on paper and limit it to the expected 25 man opening day roster, then yes - the Cubs are probably still the favorite. But, if you expand the comparison to include teams' 40 man rosters and look at where individual players are in terms of their career arcs (particularly pitching), then aside from their payroll the Cubs are absolutely not the clear favorite for 2019. The Brewers won the division last year, meaning the Cubs tied the Brewers after 162 - they are a talented but flawed team that could win this division, but the Cubs aren't a team head and shoulders above the Brewers or Cardinals.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, that's what I was trying to avoid with what I said. Didn't want to make it sound 'head and shoulders' because clearly any could win. And you never know on luck, injuries, variance etc. It's nothing like a Cleveland in the Central type thing. They have issues just like all the others do too. Just that if one had to wager all their money and spoke honestly I don't know how you don't go with them. And I know it's Brewers board so should expect it that way but quick run through without counting it sure seemed they weren't being picked by many.

 

This division is so deep though it could get really weird and make all the teams neck and neck. Could be an interesting year.

[Eye Black]

So far ZiPS projections have been unveiled for two NL Central teams. Below are the ZiPS WAR projections by position for the Cardinals and Reds.

 

 

CARDINALS

 

 

 

REDS

 

PIRATES

[MadThinker88]

I spotted the Street & Smith's Baseball issue in the store today so I picked it up.

 

They predict places (not wins) & have the Brewers finishing 2nd & claiming a WC spot, behind St. Louis.

Unfortunately they predict the other WC (Washington) to win the 1 game and move onto play top seed Atlanta (losing there).

 

Atlanta over St. Louis (after beating LAD) in NLCS & losing to Houston in the WS.

 

They also predict Counsell to win NL Manager of the Year.

[Tbadder]

I think the difference is going to be the Cardinal starters and Ozuna having a big bounce back. Goldie is going to eat up this division and Bader will only get better. Plus I think they’ll be able move Martinez eventually to the American League for something that will solidify and balance their team. I think Zips has Reyes too low. Again I’m looking for a big bounce back. Buttttttttt....if he remains injury prone, here’s hoping, then the Crew or Cubs could step into the breach.

[Ennder]

While I generally agree with the notion that the Cubs have botched what should have been a basically dominant window here for a while. I also think they're being underrated in this thread overall for this season

 

I do not believe they botched anything. They won a world series, were in the running for 3 more and are probably going to be in the running for the next 3. It isn't about botching it, it is just about the window being shorter than I expected. They also aren't underrated by most this season. That rotation has the potential to be really really bad. Lester's peripherals were awful last year, Quintana is now in his 5th straight year of decline, we have no clue what Darvish is going to do and Hamels has been in obvious decline. Sure maybe the good defense and overall experience leads to a decent rotation, it could happen, but it is just as likely that the Cubs have the 3rd or 4th best rotation in the division.

[Eye Black]

NL Central predictions according to PECOTA hosted on Baseball Prospectus...

 

[Eye Black]

Brewers ZiPS Projections are being released today at Fangraphs:

 

 

 

As expected ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than STEAMER. Eventually they will be rolled into the Fangraphs depth charts and the Brewers projected win total on the site will improve.

 

EDIT: Here is the link, 2019 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

[Eye Black]

Using the ZiPS graphics here are the projected WAR shown for each team in the NL Central (Cubs haven’t been released yet):

 

Cardinals (41.3 WAR)

Starters 12.9

Bullpen 4.2

Position Players 24.2

 

Brewers (39.4 WAR)

Starters 11.4

Bullpen 5.8

Position Players 22.2

 

Reds (37.4 WAR)

Starters 10.3

Bullpen 4.3

Position Players 22.8

 

Pirates (35.3 WAR)

Starters 11.3

Bullpen 4.7

Position Players 19.3

 

These projected WAR totals only take into account players shown on the ZiPS graphics above, so it doesn’t account for positional role players such as Ben Gamel and Eric Thames.