NL Central Standings Predictions

[Eye Black]

There has been on-going discussion specific to the current projected standings hosted at Fangraphs (thread link), but I thought we could take the discussion a slightly different direction.

 

Post your own predicted order of finish for the NL Central in this thread along with your predicted win totals for each team. I will leave the thread voting open until the end of February at which time I will average everyone’s predicted win totals for each team in order to come up with our own BF.net projected standings for the division. Feel free to include discussion of the projected standings as well, I will sift through and find everyone’s predictions.

 

Below is a template for how simple your vote can be listed. For your vote to count we just need the team names and predicted # of wins for each. This example template was done using Clay Davenport’s current projected standings (as of 1/26):

 

Voting Example

 

Cubs - 88

Brewers - 87

Cardinals - 86

Reds - 80

Pirates - 76

 

 

One reminder, each team in the NL Central has to play the other four teams in the division a total of 19 times each (76 total games within the division). I mention this since it would be difficult to end up with a scenario where there are 3+ teams at or above the 90 win mark unless you think other teams in the division are going to be very bad.

 

Lastly, feel free to edit your own predicted standings at any point over the next month, the voting portion of this thread will end at midnight on Friday, March 1st. I won’t collect the data before that point, so you will be able to make changes up until the deadline.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers - 92

Cardinals - 89

Reds - 83

Cubs - 81

Pirates - 74

 

Gonna be a dogfight between the Cards and Brewers right up until the end. Reds and Cubs hang for awhile but the Cubs injury woes in their rotation are their Achilles Heel, and the Reds are going to be vastly overrated. Pirates continue to be the Pirates. Also, Steamer is a steaming pile of dung

[TURBO]

Brewers 90

Cubs 89

Cardinals 89

Reds 84

Pirates 72

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers 92

Cardinals 90

Reds 88

Cubs 85

Pirates 73

[long ball]

Brewers 86

Cardinals 86

Cubs 86

Pirates 81

Reds 81

[kalle8]

Cubs 90

Brewers 88

Cardinals 87

Reds 80

Pirates 75

[pitchleague]

Brewers 94

Cubs 91

Cardinals 82

Reds 77

Pirates 70

[Roderick]

The division won 428 games last year. I assume that will be the floor for wins. This would be 428 wins.

 

Cubs 91

Cardinals 91

Brewers 90

Reds 80

Pirates 76

[clancyphile]

Brewers 94

Cardinals 90

Cubs 83

Reds 81

Pirates 73

 

Brewers have strengthened a weak position in C, and Hiura solidifies 2B by June 15. Cardinals will be second, with good improvements, but they'll fall short. Cubs have too many bad contracts, and I don't see Darvish/Quintana rebounding enough. Reds find DJ can only work so much magic given their pitching talent level. Pirates worst off, but will play spoiler.

[Baldkin]

Brewers: 137

Cardinals: 86

Pirates: 79

Reds: 76

Cubs: 3

[3and2Fastball]

Too early. I need to know where the rest of the free agents sign, first.

 

However: I do like Baldkin's response!

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers 93

Cardinals 88

Cubs 85

Reds 82

Pirates 74

 

The Cubs could still go out and win 100+ games if all their talent stays healthy and performs up to career norms/expectations, but recent history suggests they are just as likely to take a big step back in a more competitive division with an expensive but very questionable pitching staff - not to mention what appears to be some organizational friction building due to a combo of the Addison Russell situation, player/coaches relationships, and less than expected results following significant trades and FA signings that have thinned out their minor league system and apparently handcuffed their MLB payroll flexibility. If Bryant doesn't return to MVP-level form, they are in trouble.

 

The Cards and Reds probably made the biggest improvements from bringing in talent via trade/FA, but I feel like the Brewers actually have the most complete 40 man roster in the division, which IMO is more important than having the most talented 25 man MLB gameday roster with how the game is evolving.

[topper09er]

Brewers: 137

Cardinals: 86

Pirates: 79

Reds: 76

Cubs: 3

 

Is this a joke? the Pirates winning 79 games?!?

[MrTPlush]

Brewers 100

Cardinals 89

Cubs 84

Reds 80

Pirates 73

 

One of these days that Cubs pitching staff is going to take a big step backwards due to older guys disappointing and their record will reflect that.

 

I think this Brewers team is just as good as last year...and I think there will be big win-now mentality at the deadline if we look good. Big moves will be made. We will win 100 games. Maybe a little fandom, but I think they could field a 100 win team. We also have yet to trade any of that pitching we have. Serious starting rotation depth (and experienced) will play big when we have injuries.

[Zad Fnark]

Brewers: 137

Cardinals: 86

Pirates: 79

Reds: 76

Cubs: 3

 

Is this a joke? the Pirates winning 79 games?!?

 

[owbc]

Did the Reds really improve by 10-15 wins? I doubt it. I'll give them 9 extra wins which might be generous.

 

Cubs 94

Brewers 93

Cardinals 87

Pirates 78

Reds 76

[KeithStone53151]

I'm in agreement with a couple others on the Cubs pitching staff. Their bullpen is also notably getting older. This estimate also figures on Bryant coming back as a 4 or less WAR guy and not the 6-7 WAR guy he is when fully healthy. I'm also expecting the Pirates to start selling players if/when they start slow.

 

Brewers 94

Cardinals 88

Reds 87

Cubs 83

Pirates 68

[Ricky_Bobby]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)

Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)

Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)

[KeithStone53151]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)

Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)

Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)

 

Who are these high yield trade chips?

[SRB]

I'm predicting another Game 163!

 

Brewers 96 (+1)

Cardinals 96 (-1)

Reds 85

Cubs 82

Pirates 75

[82brewcrew82]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)

Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)

Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)

Did the Cardinals not "know how to win" last year?

[ougiqbxy]

Brewers 86

Cardinals 85

Cubs 84

Pirates 83

Reds 82

[brewcrewdue80]

Brewers 98

Cardinals 93

Cubs 90

Reds 82

Pirates 82

 

Hardest Division in Baseball. Too much talent on Brewers though with the bullpen to win close and come from behind games. Depending how Hiura fares and when called up could easily see this team going for 110wins.

[jjfanec]

Cubs - 95 Wins (I HATE the Cubs, but they win and have plenty of high yield trade chips.)

Cardinals - 89 Wins (PG is a stud and they are the Cardinals who just know how to win.)

Reds - 84 Wins (Their new pitching coach along with their additions will pay off.)

Brewers - 83 Wins (I love the Brewers but I truly do not think Cain, Yelich, or the bullpen will do as well as they did and I have little faith in the prowess of Thames, Shaw, Arcia, 2B, and the aging Braun who is going to reinvent his swing. I'm not as harsh as Fangraphs but we will have to see. I hope I am wrong. They had the chance to snag 3-4 FA not named Machado or Harper that could have really improved the quality of the team but got only one.)

Pirates - 69 Wins (They are not that bad of of a team but are constantly rocked by teams in their division.)

 

Who are these high yield trade chips?

 

I was wondering the same thing

[Eye Black]

The division won 428 games last year. I assume that will be the floor for wins. This would be 431 wins.

 

Cubs 92

Cardinals 92

Brewers 92

Reds 80

Pirates 75

I love the logic of looking at last year’s total division wins as a guide! The one admittedly anecdotal counterpoint I would make is that it seems like the National League on the whole will have slightly more competitive this season. Still, I think something near last year’s total wins is realistic.