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Whit Merrifield signs 4-year extension with KC


reillymcshane
Brewer Fanatic Contributor

Whit Merrifield signed a 4-year extension with a 5th year mutual option. The deal is reportedly worth $16.25M with $2M in performance bonuses. The 5th year is a mutual option that can drive the contract's value up to around $30M.

 

The 4-year deal does not buy out any free agent seasons.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/royals-nearing-extension-with-whit-merrifield.html

 

$16M for the next four years probably plays out something like $1M, $3M, $5M, $7M - which seems pretty light considering the guy has produced 3.8 and 5.5 WAR in his first two years. If he had played it year-by-year, he could have gotten at least another $5M+ (assuming he stayed healthy and kept producing). I'm guessing the Merrifield was willing to sacrifice the additional cash for the security of the long term deal. The guy is 30 years old, and this is really his only chance to cash in. $16M is a ton of money. It will set him up for life. He's probably never going to get a huge FA contract as he won't reach free agency until he's 34. This will take care of him forever. Yes, he could have tried to get another $5M or $10M by going through the arby process. But an injury or a decline in production could be devastating.

 

Merrifield has been a frequent object of affection by some on the trade boards. It's unlikely the deal includes a no-trade clause, so the contract really doesn't affect Merrifield's trade value. It might, in fact, enhance his value, since he's under contract for such a reasonable amount.

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It also drives up Merrifield's trade value, as you have a ~4 WAR/year player locked in for <$19M over the next four years. Having that certainty eliminates some of the financial risk of a team acquiring him.

 

I posted the same in the rumors thread. Any team that wants him has cost certainty now so it should increase his trade value somewhat.

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Arbitration figures still seem to be largely driven by things like home runs and RBIs, and from that perspective Merrifield could easily be short-changed once he gets into arbitration. And he was only going to be a 500k-600k player in 2019, so for this season it will be a nice jump in pay.

 

I certainly wouldn't claim to be any sort of expert in figuring arbitration estimates, but I'd take a guess that if he went year by year in arbitration he'd probably get something like 22-24 million. So this deal guarantees him somewhere around 70% of that. Seems pretty fair to me. Reasonable enough discount for the Royals. Now Merrifield has that money in the bank, does not have to be so concerned about injury or a regression in his performance.

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