Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.

 

Wily Peralta? Wow

 

Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season.

 

I really dig the optimism, and I too hope you are right. Because that would be terrific for the Brewers' 2019 chances.

[MrTPlush]

How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.

 

Wily Peralta? Wow

 

Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season.

 

It isn't about comparing their skill levels. It is the concept that one can figure things out and take steps back in the future. Wily Peralta was promising himself and showed flashes of potential through his early years of struggle. You can attribute Nelson's success to a mechanical change etc., but that doesn't really change the fact he can regress. If mechanical changes were so magical I would think Wade Miley could have secured a nice multi year deal. I am not sure how many pitchers who debut at 25+ years old, are average for a good chunk of time, and suddenly vault into the Top 10 analytically as pitchers...but it seems pretty unlikely.

 

At the end of the day Nelson is a baseball player and more importantly a pitcher. Where career years are common and regression also very common. Whether a #5 pitcher or a #1 pitcher one is likely to have major outlier seasons good and bad. It is especially concerning when a pitcher depends on command as you say to be elite vs. average. He could lose that overnight...he has zero track record with good commond outside of 2017. Is it crazy to think Nelson went from average to having a career year and would have settled in as a really good #3 or a low end #2?

[Brew crew 92]

MrTPlush I agree with a lot of your posts but just happen to disagree with you on this one. All the outlier talk while technically true, To me is puzzling because injury not withstanding, quite a few of you fellas had no faith in Jimmy going forward to continue to be the pitcher he was in 17. Your opinion is A good chance for Jimmy to regress, mine expect another similar year.

[82brewcrew82]

MrTPlush I agree with a lot of your posts but just happen to disagree with you on this one. All the outlier talk while technically true, To me is puzzling because injury not withstanding, quite a few of you fellas had no faith in Jimmy going forward to continue to be the pitcher he was in 17. Your opinion is A good chance for Jimmy to regress, mine expect another similar year.

That's not true. I think the prevailing opinion is that it isn't a given we will see 2017 Jimmy. It's also possible we will. Your stance seems to be that we will see 2017 Jimmy because he was really good two years ago.

[Brew crew 92]

MrTPlush I agree with a lot of your posts but just happen to disagree with you on this one. All the outlier talk while technically true, To me is puzzling because injury not withstanding, quite a few of you fellas had no faith in Jimmy going forward to continue to be the pitcher he was in 17. Your opinion is A good chance for Jimmy to regress, mine expect another similar year.

That's not true. I think the prevailing opinion is that it isn't a given we will see 2017 Jimmy. It's also possible we will. Your stance seems to be that we will see 2017 Jimmy because he was really good two years ago.

 

Yes that is my stance. Takeaway the injury, and I would’ve expected to see the same ace like pitcher in 18. And now that Nelson is healthy again and with reports that his breaking stuff and command is as good as ever and he has touched 95 mph, I believe with innings his velo will tick back to where it was and he will be an ace for us again this year at some point.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

MrTPlush I agree with a lot of your posts but just happen to disagree with you on this one. All the outlier talk while technically true, To me is puzzling because injury not withstanding, quite a few of you fellas had no faith in Jimmy going forward to continue to be the pitcher he was in 17. Your opinion is A good chance for Jimmy to regress, mine expect another similar year.

That's not true. I think the prevailing opinion is that it isn't a given we will see 2017 Jimmy. It's also possible we will. Your stance seems to be that we will see 2017 Jimmy because he was really good two years ago.

 

Yes that is my stance. Takeaway the injury, and I would’ve expected to see the same ace like pitcher in 18. And now that Nelson is healthy again and with reports that his breaking stuff and command is as good as ever and he has touched 95 mph, I believe with innings his velo will tick back to where it was and he will be an ace for us again this year at some point.

 

Man, I hope that comes true, because it was be awesome! But as I found out last year, expecting him back in mid-June, lofty expectations can lead to disappointment. But if you temper those expectations, it makes the disappointment more palatable.

 

I personally am very encouraged by what Nelson has shown so far. It leads me to believe that he will in fact make an impact on this year's squad. The skepticism is still going to be there, though.

[HiAndTight]

How soon we forget Wily Peralta. As with every comparison, it's not exact, but same concept. Bad season, one really good season, then back to bad. Spare me the reasons, it doesn't matter. (He's out of shape....yea he was out of shape during his good season too.) There are all sorts of things that come into play that causes a player to have one really good year above the norm.

 

Wily Peralta? Wow

 

Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season.

 

 

 

I think Wily Peralta is a perfect example. Peralta had better stuff than Nelson. Heck, Pertalta had an upper 90's fastball with good movement.

 

Had he had Nelson's worth ethic, I think he'd have become a much better pitcher. Sadly, he didn't.

 

I think the difference is, they're at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Peralta had more talent, Nelson had more than enough. Peralta tried to get by just on talent...and was able to for a while, Nelson was ok just being a thrower, but evolved and refined his mechanics until he looked like he was on the precipice of becoming an ace.

 

 

As for Nelson's 2017 season, there's really not an argument to make that it's NOT an outlier....as of now. If you have one season that deviates greatly from the norm, that's an outlier. You can say it's because he just got better and he worked harder or this improved or that, but outlier isn't a subjective word.

 

Nelson figuring things out and his 2017 season being the result of him just getting better AND that season thus far being an outlier are not muturally exclusive.

 

Hopefully he can get 150-170 innings in with 30 of those in the post-season and make '17 look like less of an outlier. But as of this moment...it is.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Wily Peralta is a perfect example. Peralta had better stuff than Nelson. Heck, Pertalta had an upper 90's fastball with good movement.

 

Had he had Nelson's worth ethic, I think he'd have become a much better pitcher. Sadly, he didn't.

 

I think the difference is, they're at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Peralta had more talent, Nelson had more than enough. Peralta tried to get by just on talent...and was able to for a while, Nelson was ok just being a thrower, but evolved and refined his mechanics until he looked like he was on the precipice of becoming an ace.

 

 

As for Nelson's 2017 season, there's really not an argument to make that it's NOT an outlier....as of now. If you have one season that deviates greatly from the norm, that's an outlier. You can say it's because he just got better and he worked harder or this improved or that, but outlier isn't a subjective word.

 

Nelson figuring things out and his 2017 season being the result of him just getting better AND that season thus far being an outlier are not muturally exclusive.

 

Hopefully he can get 150-170 innings in with 30 of those in the post-season and make '17 look like less of an outlier. But as of this moment...it is.

 

The only think that keeps me from calling Nelson's 2017 a true outlier was the fact that injury prevented him from having the opportunity to either continue on that path or return to the mean. I guess given that, by definition, outliers can occur by chance in any distribution, he doesn't necessarily need to return to the mean for the word to ring true, if you believe that he had enough statistical data to reliably compare his 2017 numbers to previous numbers.

[Brew crew 92]

Feels like the movie “Ground-hog day” same stances by most of the same people over and over and over again. When jimmy wins comeback player of the year, and starts game 1 of playoffs, those of you that used word “outlier” hundreds of times must.....

[HiAndTight]

I think Wily Peralta is a perfect example. Peralta had better stuff than Nelson. Heck, Pertalta had an upper 90's fastball with good movement.

 

Had he had Nelson's worth ethic, I think he'd have become a much better pitcher. Sadly, he didn't.

 

I think the difference is, they're at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Peralta had more talent, Nelson had more than enough. Peralta tried to get by just on talent...and was able to for a while, Nelson was ok just being a thrower, but evolved and refined his mechanics until he looked like he was on the precipice of becoming an ace.

 

 

As for Nelson's 2017 season, there's really not an argument to make that it's NOT an outlier....as of now. If you have one season that deviates greatly from the norm, that's an outlier. You can say it's because he just got better and he worked harder or this improved or that, but outlier isn't a subjective word.

 

Nelson figuring things out and his 2017 season being the result of him just getting better AND that season thus far being an outlier are not muturally exclusive.

 

Hopefully he can get 150-170 innings in with 30 of those in the post-season and make '17 look like less of an outlier. But as of this moment...it is.

 

The only think that keeps me from calling Nelson's 2017 a true outlier was the fact that injury prevented him from having the opportunity to either continue on that path or return to the mean. I guess given that, by definition, outliers can occur by chance in any distribution, he doesn't necessarily need to return to the mean for the word to ring true, if you believe that he had enough statistical data to reliably compare his 2017 numbers to previous numbers.

 

 

I agree with your opinions on Nelson, but if Nelson pitched in 10 GAMES and he had 9 games in which he went less than 6 and gave up 3 runs, and then one in which he pitched 9, gave up hit, 0ER and struck out 14, that'd be an outlier.

 

The term outlier doesn't leave room for explanation or reasoning. It just is. Take Nelson's season and put them on a graph. That 2017 season would stand far apart from the rest, hence, outlier.

 

I agree that had he not got hurt he would have likely continued to be the pitcher I think he genuinely turned into.

 

I also believe he's going to be back to the pitcher we saw this year. I think everyone's too hung up on what is an outlier. I also think people need to start watching the game more and breaking it down with raw data less. You can SEE Nelson becoming a better pitcher in 2017.

 

You could SEE Braun hitting into a lot of hard outs and I thought I could see Cain hitting into a lot of soft outs, I could see Cain running a mile to easily catch a fly ball, you could see Yelich at times struggling out there relative to his GG reputation, you could see Keon Broxton pressing and scared of losing playing time. You could NOT see Phillips throw a ball from center to catcher as I believe that traveled faster than the speed of light, but most of the things you see are only confirmed by analytics.

 

Analytics are awesome. They're great for teams, they're great for fans during lulls. They're great just to be better informed if you care to be(many people don't, they just want to watch the games, and that's fine with me). But for people arguing that 2017 might not have been the real Jimmy Nelson because of his ERA+ the previous seasons and what not, I feel like you just weren't WATCHING him. He was pitching with more confidence, he wasn't nibbling, he was attacking, he was getting ahead, he was putting guys away. He was a emerging pitcher.

[MrTPlush]

those of you that used word “outlier” hundreds of times and indirectly mentioned WILY P in the same sentence with Jimmy must.....

 

- Is it an outlier? Fact, though one can interpret outlier however they want. Calling it an outlier is not predicting the future.

 

- Could he regress regardless of the injury after "figuring it out"? Yes, just like thousands of other players before him.

 

Show me the people saying it is an outlier AND he can't change that or that he will end up exactly how Peralta did. I will wait. No one is trying to predict the future except you so you are the only one at risk of eating crow. Everyone else is just pointing out how he very well may never be the same. No one is saying he will never be the same.

[HiAndTight]

Feels like the movie “Ground-hog day” same stances by most of the same people over and over and over again. When jimmy wins comeback player of the year, and starts game 1 of playoffs, those of you that used word “outlier” hundreds of times and indirectly mentioned WILY P in the same sentence with Jimmy must.....

 

 

Must what? Enjoy it with the knowledge that we were absolutely right?

 

 

Again, you're acting as if an outlier is an opinion. It's not.

statistics

a data point on a graph or in a set of results that is very much bigger or smaller than the next nearest data point.

 

What part of his 2017 season does this not describe?

 

 

And why is using Wily Peralta's name in the same sentence sacrilige. They came up at roughly the same time. Wily Peralta had more talent. Many thought Wily Peralta was going to be the Brewers next ace or at least a force atop their rotation for a while. Again, he had a heavy upper 90's fastball and nasty movement on his breaking stuff. He had some success.

 

He apparently just wasn't mentally tough enough to reach his potential. There are probably a few dozen pitchers across baseball right now that for one reason(injury) or another(effort) have the potential to be an ace, but won't.

 

But what's wrong with pointing out that a guy who came up around the same time as Nelson and had more talent but a far inferior work ethic, had a good season, bad season and then was so bad he got like 2 chances in the pen, a role in which you'd think his stuff would be unhittable?

 

 

Explain to me what I've got wrong here?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Wily Peralta is a perfect example. Peralta had better stuff than Nelson. Heck, Pertalta had an upper 90's fastball with good movement.

 

Had he had Nelson's worth ethic, I think he'd have become a much better pitcher. Sadly, he didn't.

 

I think the difference is, they're at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Peralta had more talent, Nelson had more than enough. Peralta tried to get by just on talent...and was able to for a while, Nelson was ok just being a thrower, but evolved and refined his mechanics until he looked like he was on the precipice of becoming an ace.

 

 

As for Nelson's 2017 season, there's really not an argument to make that it's NOT an outlier....as of now. If you have one season that deviates greatly from the norm, that's an outlier. You can say it's because he just got better and he worked harder or this improved or that, but outlier isn't a subjective word.

 

Nelson figuring things out and his 2017 season being the result of him just getting better AND that season thus far being an outlier are not muturally exclusive.

 

Hopefully he can get 150-170 innings in with 30 of those in the post-season and make '17 look like less of an outlier. But as of this moment...it is.

 

The only think that keeps me from calling Nelson's 2017 a true outlier was the fact that injury prevented him from having the opportunity to either continue on that path or return to the mean. I guess given that, by definition, outliers can occur by chance in any distribution, he doesn't necessarily need to return to the mean for the word to ring true, if you believe that he had enough statistical data to reliably compare his 2017 numbers to previous numbers.

 

 

I agree with your opinions on Nelson, but if Nelson pitched in 10 GAMES and he had 9 games in which he went less than 6 and gave up 3 runs, and then one in which he pitched 9, gave up hit, 0ER and struck out 14, that'd be an outlier.

 

The term outlier doesn't leave room for explanation or reasoning. It just is. Take Nelson's season and put them on a graph. That 2017 season would stand far apart from the rest, hence, outlier.

 

I agree that had he not got hurt he would have likely continued to be the pitcher I think he genuinely turned into.

 

I also believe he's going to be back to the pitcher we saw this year. I think everyone's too hung up on what is an outlier. I also think people need to start watching the game more and breaking it down with raw data less. You can SEE Nelson becoming a better pitcher in 2017.

 

You could SEE Braun hitting into a lot of hard outs and I thought I could see Cain hitting into a lot of soft outs, I could see Cain running a mile to easily catch a fly ball, you could see Yelich at times struggling out there relative to his GG reputation, you could see Keon Broxton pressing and scared of losing playing time. You could NOT see Phillips throw a ball from center to catcher as I believe that traveled faster than the speed of light, but most of the things you see are only confirmed by analytics.

 

Analytics are awesome. They're great for teams, they're great for fans during lulls. They're great just to be better informed if you care to be(many people don't, they just want to watch the games, and that's fine with me). But for people arguing that 2017 might not have been the real Jimmy Nelson because of his ERA+ the previous seasons and what not, I feel like you just weren't WATCHING him. He was pitching with more confidence, he wasn't nibbling, he was attacking, he was getting ahead, he was putting guys away. He was a emerging pitcher.

 

I think this is one of the best replies I've seen on this thread. Sometimes you just feel like throwing the stats and analytics out the window, and going with your gut If it worked for Lou Brown ...

[HiAndTight]

those of you that used word “outlier” hundreds of times and indirectly mentioned WILY P in the same sentence with Jimmy must.....

 

- Is it an outlier? Fact, though one can interpret outlier however they want.

- Could he regress regardless of the injury after "figuring it out"? Yes, just like thousands of other players before him.

 

Show me the people saying it is an outlier AND he can't change that or that he will end up exactly how Peralta did. I will wait. No one is trying to predict the future except you so you are the only one at risk of eating crow. Everyone else is just pointing out how he very well may never be the same. No one is saying he will never be the same.

 

 

Well...they can, but there's really only one right way

 

I'm just not getting the problem. I think if he doesn't return to his 2017 form, it'll be because he'll continue to struggle with shoulder issues, not because I don't that the 2017 Jimmy Nelson was a fluke. But me believing it doesn't change that it was only one season.

 

 

I feel like everyone here is pretty much in agreement with the ONLY difference being that some are a little MORE optimistic that he bounces back from injury to pitch like he did and others who understand what a major surgery are tempering their expectations for this year a little bit more.

 

Other than that, we all love Jimmy, we all think he CAN be an ace. WE all agree he was REALLY good in 2017, BUT that 2017 was the first time he was that good.

 

 

I feel like when I went to Home Depot with my GF and she kept asking what color paint I liked and after a while, my eyes started glossing over and I kept pointing to the BLUE paint and she kept telling me she liked the "Lake Victoria," and they were the SAME DAMN COLOR!!!!

[HiAndTight]

 

I think this is one of the best replies I've seen on this thread. Sometimes you just feel like throwing the stats and analytics out the window, and going with your gut If it worked for Lou Brown ...

 

 

LOL....honestly, and I'm ashamed to say this, when you first said this, this guy who ran a hedge fund named Lou Brown was the first name who came to mind and he lost people MILLIONS! You had me re-thinking my stance on ever abandoning the science!

 

But after a second, "givve'em the heater Rickie," came to my mind and all was right with the world!

[Brew crew 92]

Feels like the movie “Ground-hog day” same stances by most of the same people over and over and over again. When jimmy wins comeback player of the year, and starts game 1 of playoffs, those of you that used word “outlier” hundreds of times and indirectly mentioned WILY P in the same sentence with Jimmy must.....

 

 

Must what? Enjoy it with the knowledge that we were absolutely right?

 

 

Again, you're acting as if an outlier is an opinion. It's not.

statistics

a data point on a graph or in a set of results that is very much bigger or smaller than the next nearest data point.

 

What part of his 2017 season does this not describe?

 

 

And why is using Wily Peralta's name in the same sentence sacrilige. They came up at roughly the same time. Wily Peralta had more talent. Many thought Wily Peralta was going to be the Brewers next ace or at least a force atop their rotation for a while. Again, he had a heavy upper 90's fastball and nasty movement on his breaking stuff. He had some success.

 

He apparently just wasn't mentally tough enough to reach his potential. There are probably a few dozen pitchers across baseball right now that for one reason(injury) or another(effort) have the potential to be an ace, but won't.

 

But what's wrong with pointing out that a guy who came up around the same time as Nelson and had more talent but a far inferior work ethic, had a good season, bad season and then was so bad he got like 2 chances in the pen, a role in which you'd think his stuff would be unhittable?

 

 

Explain to me what I've got wrong here?

 

Fixed my post to better reflect how I feel. Agree with Joey Meyer bombs love your post, the eyes have it over the stats. I’m old so as long as I wear my glasses I trust what I see/saw with jimmy.

[Lathund]

Jimmys 2017, whether you want to call it a breakout or an outlier or both is perhaps better evaluated when you also consider 2016 as one. Not that he was as good in 2013-2015 as in 2017, but he was a lot better than in 2016. Looking at plate discipline stats is interesting; he had a SwStrk % of 9-10 in those years, that then dropped to 7% in 2016 before 11% in 2017.. Batters stopped swinging as often on pitches (Mainly outside the zone) in 2016, but started making more contact. Jimmy threw more strikes in 2016, but had a lower first strike %. He threw more sinkers and fewer curveballs. The stats can tell a story here. Falling behind more often (Lower first strike %) results in more of the latter pitches being thrown in the zone, and in counts where you expect to see strikes/fastballs. Fewer breaking balls means fewer swings and misses, both outside and inside the zone. So without throwing fewer strikes, you still see the BB% rise and thus K% drop even more than K/9 does. Now without looking at heatmaps and such it's harder to tell the details, like which pitches got the swings (and contact) outside the zone (My guess would be sinker), or if there was a particular pitch he was struggling to throw for strikes. The pitch value would suggest that it was the sinker.

 

Now I didn't watch much of Jimmy in 2016, but just from the above numbers it made me think that he struggled vs RHB in 2016, and he in fact did (.802 OPS vs .685 for his career. vs LHB he was exactly in line with his career numbers) simply because sinkers that miss their spot vs a same-handed batter are just the kind of pitch you'd see more contact made against even outside the zone.

 

Anyway, what changed in 2017 was the pitch mix, back to something very close to 2015 with more curves and fewer sinkers. What stuck from 2016 was the higher zone % compared to before, while the other numbers aren't much different from 2013-2015 with the exception of getting a few more swings, but most importantly getting more swings and misses outside the zone. Better breaking stuff, and more pitches thrown in the zone.

 

You see the evolution where Jimmy in 2015 threw fewer fastballs and more breaking stuff, which saw more swing and miss but more walks. 2016 where where more fastballs (Sinkers) again, more strikes but more walks probably due to lacking an out pitch and nibbling more (I can't find pitches / PA, but I'd expect a spike there). 2017 going back to what showed promise in 2015 with the curveball, but this time seeing better results. Maybe because of the new curveball grip that I recall hearing about, maybe because the fastball/sinker got better. Maybe because he set himself up to throw them in the right count better.

 

Anyway, I hadn't really looked at these stats before, but found it pretty interesting that you could tell a tale just from looking at some stats. Some of it aligns with what I remember (Like the very effective curveball in 2017), some I have no idea if they're true. But I'd say that 2016 makes 2017 look like more of an outlier than it was. 2013-2015 Jimmy was a league-average pitcher lacking some ability to finish off hitters. Add some strikeouts to that and you've got a breakout.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jimmy Nelson just pitched a 1-2-3 inning, touching 95 on the gun according to McCalvy. That is pretty dang promising news. At this point, I don't think there's any reason to believe we won't see Nelson in the MLB rotation by mid-April.

 

Edit: Two innings of no-run ball. HBP and a single given up in the 8th. I'll take it!

[Brew crew 92]

Jimmy Nelson in the rotation mid-April ya gotta love it!

[82brewcrew82]

Jimmy Nelson just pitched a 1-2-3 inning, touching 95 on the gun according to McCalvy. That is pretty dang promising news. At this point, I don't think there's any reason to believe we won't see Nelson in the MLB rotation by mid-April.

 

Edit: Two innings of no-run ball. HBP and a single given up in the 8th. I'll take it!

Definitely encouraging. I'm not all that concerned with the results even, it's just good to see innings ramping up and seeing the velocity ramping up.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

nasty

[brewmann04]

If we get him back in the rotation come may it be a welcome site.

[Brew crew 92]

 

nasty

 

Now I KNOW what he’s talkin about when he says his breaking stuff BETTER than ever. Sometimes we have to take a man for his word.

[Brew crew 92]

What about jimmy starting out opening day in The bullpen?

He wouldn’t need stretched out and could pitch like a righty Hader?

[TURBO]

I'd rather see him in AAA, stretching out as a normal starter for every 5th day...

 

Get him back into the role he will at some point be playing for us...