Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I didn't say anything about ST. He needs to sit at 95 in the regular season, I don't care what he's throwing now.

[docduany]

I'll echo the fastball velocity. If Jimmy isn't at 95, I'm skeptical about his chances of repeated the 2017 magic

[Brew crew 92]

Jimmy twice has said he cleaned up his delivery this off season so that’s why his breaking stuff(curve,slider,change)is better than ever. When his velo ticks upward, and it will,he will be a better pitcher than 2017. NL Comeback player of the year.

[markedman5]

So we can forget about Jimmy opening on the active roster.

 

[Brew crew 92]

So we can forget about Jimmy opening on the active roster.

 

 

He can build up arm strength and velo in extended st and aaa.

[Ennder]

There is on reason to think he will be ready opening day, it seems just silly to expect that. It doesn't mean it can't happen but it is silly to expect it. It is also silly to expect a repeat of 2017 considering it was a clear outlier in his career and the fact you have to expect the injury to take some sort of toll on his stats.

 

I think it’s “silly” to ignore the way he’s pitching right now. Looks like his stuff is as good or better than ever, he’s healthy and just needs innings.

As far as 2017 being an outlier, I beg to differ, in fact I think most of us who watched him pitch in 2017 had seen Jimmy turn the corner, and that was the ace pitcher he would be moving forward.

 

He wasn't pitching right now, he was still waiting to get into real action so your first statement made no sense. I think he turned a corner in 2017 as well, but usually an outlier season like that is only partially true, not the new level and the fact he is coming off of an injury is a clear sign to lower expectations a bit. There is no reason at all to expect 2017 Jimmy Nelson in the first half of this season, if that is what you are hoping for you are just setting yourself up for disappointment. It isn't a realistic expectation.

[Brew crew 92]

What I don’t understand is how you can watch jimmy all of 2017 prior to the injury and not only think he’s turned the corner, but at a minimum would see an ace like pitcher moving forward. Some people keep mentioning “outlier” season, injury notwithstanding, like he will regress back to a pumpkin moving forward. I get it, he needs to prove to everybody that he can come back from this injury, but enough of the outlier season talk.

[Brew crew 92]

Very very interesting interview of Jimmy Nelson in the media thread section of BF.net. He got into the details of his injured shoulder & fastball velo among other things. Cool interview.

[FVBrewerFan]

What I don’t understand is how you can watch jimmy all of 2017 prior to the injury and not only think he’s turned the corner, but at a minimum would see an ace like pitcher moving forward. Some people keep mentioning “outlier” season, injury notwithstanding, like he will regress back to a pumpkin moving forward. I get it, he needs to prove to everybody that he can come back from this injury, but enough of the outlier season talk.

 

Strawman argument. Nobody is saying he will regress back into a pumpkin. We're saying we don't know, and until we do by definition 2017 was an outlier.

[Brew crew 92]

What I don’t understand is how you can watch jimmy all of 2017 prior to the injury and not only think he’s turned the corner, but at a minimum would see an ace like pitcher moving forward. Some people keep mentioning “outlier” season, injury notwithstanding, like he will regress back to a pumpkin moving forward. I get it, he needs to prove to everybody that he can come back from this injury, but enough of the outlier season talk.

 

Strawman argument. Nobody is saying he will regress back into a pumpkin. We're saying we don't know, and until we do by definition 2017 was an outlier.

 

I was being facetious using “regress back to a pumpkin”. Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.

[Cirilloing]

What I don’t understand is how you can watch jimmy all of 2017 prior to the injury and not only think he’s turned the corner, but at a minimum would see an ace like pitcher moving forward. Some people keep mentioning “outlier” season, injury notwithstanding, like he will regress back to a pumpkin moving forward. I get it, he needs to prove to everybody that he can come back from this injury, but enough of the outlier season talk.

 

Strawman argument. Nobody is saying he will regress back into a pumpkin. We're saying we don't know, and until we do by definition 2017 was an outlier.

 

To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.

[BillScottCanRake]

Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.

 

The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

 

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

 

Roger Maris (1961)

Mark Fidrych (1976)

Pat Listach ( 1992)

Brady Anderson (1996)

Jeff Francoeur (2006)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

 

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

 

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.

[82brewcrew82]

To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.

So what is the underlying assumption here? That Jimmy is so talented he was destined to have the season he had in 2017? The league is littered with very talented ball players that put up a single solid season and never amounted to much more than that one season. I'm sure in every one of those instances there were stories of tangible reasons to explain that one season. I don't think it's any less hollow to assume that 2017 Jimmy is the Jimmy we get going forward.

[Brew crew 92]

Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.

 

The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

 

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

 

Roger Maris (1961)

Mark Fidrych (1976)

Pat Listach ( 1992)

Brady Anderson (1996)

Jeff Francoeur (2006)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

 

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

 

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.

 

I’m telling jimmy you guys think his 2017 season an “outlier”.

[lukevan]

Hard to call 1/3 of the sample an outlier in my opinion.

[brewcrewdue80]

I already answered what was the cause for 2017. Nelson's CB improved to above league avg from below avg. That of course made his Fastball more effective. 2017 will be an outlier if the curveball isn't above league average moving forward. By all accounts the breaking pitches seem to be there at this time. There is higher hope on his future performance than many are suggesting it will be.

[Cirilloing]

To call his third full season an outlier, while technically true, is a pretty hollow assessment of where he was at. Young, talented players tend to improve over time heading towards their athletic prime. If he had pitched six full season and his last one was was great while the other five were average, saying outlier is more sufficient. But many players struggle early on. Its just kind of a pointless thing to say. The bigger picture is that he took a big leap forward and there were tangible reasons to point to for his improvement.

So what is the underlying assumption here? That Jimmy is so talented he was destined to have the season he had in 2017? The league is littered with very talented ball players that put up a single solid season and never amounted to much more than that one season. I'm sure in every one of those instances there were stories of tangible reasons to explain that one season. I don't think it's any less hollow to assume that 2017 Jimmy is the Jimmy we get going forward.

 

if your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

 

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

[502 to Right]

I think we should sit back, relax, and see what Jimmy does in 2019 rather than getting worked up about things we can't possibly know the answer to.

[Cirilloing]

Hard to call 1/3 of the sample an outlier in my opinion.

 

this is really the trump card to what is already a very tired argument and a strange hill to die on..

[Brew crew 92]

I already answered what was the cause for 2017. Nelson's CB improved to above league avg from below avg. That of course made his Fastball more effective. 2017 will be an outlier if the curveball isn't above league average moving forward. By all accounts the breaking pitches seem to be there at this time. There is higher hope on his future performance than many are suggesting it will be.

 

Yes. He struck out the side with his breaking stuff, without the FB he’s gonna have moving forward with innings under his belt. As long as he’s healthy he is going to help us big time at some point early in season.

[Roderick]

Outlier talk driving me crazy. AM I THE ONLY ONE? Regress back to 2015 or 16. Do we really think the jimmy we saw all of 2017 was a mirage. You say we don’t really know. Really? I saw top of the rotation starter. TOR moving forward for sure. And I don’t think I’m the only one.

 

The point is until he repeats 2017, no matter how he did it, no matter how good he looked doing it, no matter how convincingly he did it, it's a one-off season. Add onto that the unknowns of his injury (and even though it looks better than a lot of other shoulder injuries, there are still unknowns) and you have not only a classic outlier season, but additional worries about him being able to repeat it.

 

Baseball is littered with players who, for a whole lot of different reasons including injury, had seasons which were not typical of the rest of their career. Some of the more memorable ones for me are:

 

Roger Maris (1961)

Mark Fidrych (1976)

Pat Listach ( 1992)

Brady Anderson (1996)

Jeff Francoeur (2006)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (2008)

 

Some of those guys had nice careers, some not so nice, but none of them were the player they were in their peak year at any other time in their career. I am sure at the time they had their peak seasons the was plenty of talk about their future being bright, but they were outliers never to be seen again.

 

Until Nelson repeats his 2017 season, or betters it, it is the dictionary definition of an outlier. That doesn't mean it will always be, and it doesn't mean Nelson can't be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it just means he has to prove it.

 

I’m telling jimmy you guys think his 2017 season an “outlier”.

 

Yeah and take the ball and go home too, while you are crying to mama. Pat Listach is the one that jumps in my mind also.

[82brewcrew82]

If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

 

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

 

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.

[MrTPlush]

I think the odds Jimmy Nelson is 2017 good ever again are probably low...but then again I can't say I would be confident in him ever being like that again without the injury. He struck out 10.2/9....that is pretty insane. That is about what Greinke did for us in 2011 and that was Greinke's career high. That was higher than Sheets and Gallardo EVER had. You don't have to be a risky person to bet against him being that good again.

 

I expect him to be more like his 2015 self. I am not confident he is going to strike people out at that rate again and I don't know how his control will be post injury. That would not be all that bad to be honest. Repeating 2017 would have been a feat anyway.

[Brew crew 92]

If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

 

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

 

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.

 

Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If your definition of the word "outlier" is simply, "this one thing is different from these other things," then yes you could call the season an outlier if we were just looking at three sets of numbers in a vacuum.

 

it's very possible that 2017 will be Jimmy Nelson's high water mark, but as that story is still unfolding I don't find it appropriate to label that season as an outlier, or an aberration just yet.

This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample.

 

The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else.

 

Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “.

 

Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.