Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[young guns]

First off day isn't until after the 7th game.

[82brewcrew82]

First off day isn't until after the 7th game.

Then I'll go with him starting the season somewhere other than the rotation. Which isn't to say we won't see 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year.

[Brew crew 92]

They could very well pitch him in the opening game and have him on a 60-pitch limit too. I mean, would that really surprise anyone knowing how this team uses pitchers?

 

Good point. I think the brewers know his stuff is back,and they have a plan for jimmy and we’ll just have to wait to see what that plan is.

[Lathund]

Jimmy Nelson in his comeback gave up 2 runs of 4 hits, including a HR. Which is perhaps the least relevant stats of the outing; and one run-scoring hit should've been caught by Stokes if I heard Uecks right.

 

No, what matters is this: 3 strikeouts, no walks, sat 91-92 and touched 94. This in his first outing in 549 days. In other words, his stuff appears to be just fine. Throwing some hittable pitches is less concerning, both rust and adrenaline/nerves likely plays into it. Or perhaps the hitters deserve credit; I only have the radio to go on so I don't know.

 

Still too early to speculate on his role or what he'll do, but if he had no ill effects I'll consider this very promising.

[markedman5]

Great to see the support from his teammates

 

[Brew crew 92]

HE’S BACK!!!!!!!!

[long ball]

I haven't previously thought about this, but the guys on the MKE Tailgate podcast speculated that it really isn't that big a deal to take things really slow with Nelson because if he comes back and is an effective pitcher this season they'll likely want him available for post season play. They may impose a usage limit on him this year and if he isn't up and stretched out for the first month or so of the season that could potentially save some bullets for late in the season and hopefully for the post season.

 

They also used the same logic for Jeffress and taking it slow with him.

 

**this isn't insider info, was just speculation and discussion.

[markedman5]

[HiAndTight]

First off day isn't until after the 7th game.

Then I'll go with him starting the season somewhere other than the rotation. Which isn't to say we won't see 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year.

 

 

Am I to understand that you went from asking when the first off-day would be so as to find out if perhaps Nelson could be used as our 5th starter and then when you realized that the Brewers 5th starter would need to be used the first time through the rotation, THEN decided he wouldn't regain his 2017 form? If the 5th starter could have taken the first two turns off, then what? Cy Young-Jimmy Nelson?

 

Wow.....Brewers fans are just on tilt when it comes to Jimmy Nelson's health.

 

I'm gonna be happy to see him out there again. Full stop. We'll see what happens and how he looks from there.

 

 

Either way, the Brewers certainly cannot be accused of rushing him back.

[Lathund]

First off day isn't until after the 7th game.

Then I'll go with him starting the season somewhere other than the rotation. Which isn't to say we won't see 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year.

 

 

Am I to understand that you went from asking when the first off-day would be so as to find out if perhaps Nelson could be used as our 5th starter and then when you realized that the Brewers 5th starter would need to be used the first time through the rotation, THEN decided he wouldn't regain his 2017 form? If the 5th starter could have taken the first two turns off, then what? Cy Young-Jimmy Nelson?

 

No, you're not to understand that. I think you should read the post you quoted again.

[Ennder]

There is on reason to think he will be ready opening day, it seems just silly to expect that. It doesn't mean it can't happen but it is silly to expect it. It is also silly to expect a repeat of 2017 considering it was a clear outlier in his career and the fact you have to expect the injury to take some sort of toll on his stats.

[owbc]

This is an incredible story and I'm so happy for Jimmy. Can't wait to see him pitch in the regular season this year.

[AKCheesehead]

Great to see the support from his teammates

 

 

That picture is amazing. Just another thing to add to my list of reasons why I love this team.

[rickh150]

As long as he’s healthy I predict he starts opening day.

 

He could pitch better than ever, and he still won't start opening day.... just can't see the team putting the extra pressure on him from the get go.... no reason for it.

[Brew crew 92]

As long as he’s healthy I predict he starts opening day.

 

He could pitch better than ever, and he still won't start opening day.... just can't see the team putting the extra pressure on him from the get go.... no reason for it.

 

I made that prediction before I found out he only pitching only one inning against sox. So yeah, prob not gonna happen now.

[Brew crew 92]

There is on reason to think he will be ready opening day, it seems just silly to expect that. It doesn't mean it can't happen but it is silly to expect it. It is also silly to expect a repeat of 2017 considering it was a clear outlier in his career and the fact you have to expect the injury to take some sort of toll on his stats.

 

I think it’s “silly” to ignore the way he’s pitching right now. Looks like his stuff is as good or better than ever, he’s healthy and just needs innings.

As far as 2017 being an outlier, I beg to differ, in fact I think most of us who watched him pitch in 2017 had seen Jimmy turn the corner, and that was the ace pitcher he would be moving forward.

[sveumrules]

Jimmy may have turned a corner in 2017 & if he didn't get hurt we would have found out by now if he actually did.

 

As it stands now in 2015 he pitched 177 innings with a 96 ERA+, in 2016 he pitched 179 innings with a 92 ERA+ & in 2017 he pitched 175 innings with a 126 ERA+.

 

Until he repeats his 2017 it will be the outlier.

[RobDeer 45]

I haven't previously thought about this, but the guys on the MKE Tailgate podcast speculated that it really isn't that big a deal to take things really slow with Nelson because if he comes back and is an effective pitcher this season they'll likely want him available for post season play. They may impose a usage limit on him this year and if he isn't up and stretched out for the first month or so of the season that could potentially save some bullets for late in the season and hopefully for the post season.

 

They also used the same logic for Jeffress and taking it slow with him.

 

**this isn't insider info, was just speculation and discussion.

 

I like this take and it makes a lot of sense to me. Mind as well be more cautious on the front end. My only concern with this would be if there was a setback or need for rest at some point during the season, would you worry it would happen to close to the playoffs, instead of closer to midseason? Obviously you can't plan for that, so again, I like the idea of lighter work early.

[Brew crew 92]

Jimmy may have turned a corner in 2017 & if he didn't get hurt we would have found out by now if he actually did.

 

As it stands now in 2015 he pitched 177 innings with a 96 ERA+, in 2016 he pitched 179 innings with a 92 ERA+ & in 2017 he pitched 175 innings with a 126 ERA+.

 

Until he repeats his 2017 it will be the outlier.

 

OK I see your point with the “outlier” 2017. But what’s your opinion on Jimmy turning the corner in 2017.

[coolhandluke121]

Jimmy always had some good pitches but that works both ways. To say he looks good now might not mean any more than it meant in 2015 or 2016. Statistically it's true that 2017 was an outlier. Instinctively it felt like he always had that potential and had turned the corner. Logically it seems that he should still be better than 2015 or 2016 simply because experience was probably the issue at the time, but pitching is such a delicate balance that it's hard to imagine labral surgery not causing some bumps along the way.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jimmy always had some good pitches but that works both ways. To say he looks good now might not mean any more than it meant in 2015 or 2016. Statistically it's true that 2017 was an outlier. Instinctively it felt like he always had that potential and had turned the corner. Logically it seems that he should still be better than 2015 or 2016 simply because experience was probably the issue at the time, but pitching is such a delicate balance that it's hard to imagine labral surgery not causing some bumps along the way.

 

This is the perfect take on the subject I believe. I think we've really dreamt and hoped on Nelson for so long seeing his raw stuff and potential, that his showing in 2017 really just felt like a win. It's so rare in Brewers history to see a talented guy come up through the system, and have the team stick with him to the point where that patience and his talent pays off. I think that is probably causing most of us to look at him a little skewed now, with maybe misplaced optimism that we'll see the 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year. Personally I think we will see the 2017 Jimmy at times this year, but with the inconsistency of 2015 and 2016 thrown in more than we'd like. And that is totally OK.

[Brew crew 92]

Jimmy always had some good pitches but that works both ways. To say he looks good now might not mean any more than it meant in 2015 or 2016. Statistically it's true that 2017 was an outlier. Instinctively it felt like he always had that potential and had turned the corner. Logically it seems that he should still be better than 2015 or 2016 simply because experience was probably the issue at the time, but pitching is such a delicate balance that it's hard to imagine labral surgery not causing some bumps along the way.

 

This is the perfect take on the subject I believe. I think we've really dreamt and hoped on Nelson for so long seeing his raw stuff and potential, that his showing in 2017 really just felt like a win. It's so rare in Brewers history to see a talented guy come up through the system, and have the team stick with him to the point where that patience and his talent pays off. I think that is probably causing most of us to look at him a little skewed now, with maybe misplaced optimism that we'll see the 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year. Personally I think we will see the 2017 Jimmy at times this year, but with the inconsistency of 2015 and 2016 thrown in more than we'd like. And that is totally OK.

 

I thought Jimmy made a mechanical adjustment to his wind up prior to the 2017 season. And that’s the reason that he became an ace like pitcher prior to his injury. But I could be mistaken.

[FVBrewerFan]

Main thing keeping me from being overly optimistic is FB velocity. He always sat at 94-95, and touched 96-97 quite often. His FB is pretty straight, doesn't hide his delivery or anything funky. So if that drops even a couple ticks it could make a huge difference. Otherwise he'll need to really command another pitch or two, that's another route but not as easy.

[Lathund]

A lot of pitchers are down a few ticks early on in ST, even when not recovering from shoulder surgery. So we don't even know if there is a loss of velocity, let alone if it'll have any consequences.

[brewcrewdue80]

Pretty sure 2017 coincided with throwing a curve ball 3rd pitch he didnt have previously. If he's throwing the curveball again(read tweet his breaking pitches leading to 3ks) then his 2017 shouldnt be an outlier moving forward. I dont know if part of those 3ks were a cb result or all on sliders. That would be what Im watching for. FB velocity seems good enough to me already.