Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[Brew crew 92]

 

Shoulder injuries are the most unpredictable injuries an athlete can have aside from the brain or back. That he's throwing right now pain-free is a good thing, and while it doesn't mean he's GOING to be the Jimmy Nelson was of the past, frankly, we're all too ignorant about his situation to accurately predict how he's going to recover.

 

So like I said in the past, since we don't know, why not just be optimistic, hope for the best and see how it goes. Isn't that kinda the fun of baseball at this point in the season? Especially for a team that improved it's talent and was just one game away from the World Series last year?

 

I feel that the context has been completely erased here. Someone sarcastically called out all the "shoulder experts" on this board for expressing completely reasonable doubts about whether Jimmy is going to be "better than ever". People are also being called out for being too negative about it, but all we're saying is basically what you're saying - that the shoulder is an extremely complex joint, throwing is a complex motion, and shoulder surgeries have uneven success rates, so therefore we're skeptical of him returning to form. I think it was obvious from the context that I wasn't claiming to be a shoulder surgeon, but only claiming to be enough of an expert on it to express skepticism about Nelson bouncing back 100%. I'm probably about as much of an expert as one can be without actually working in the field. People jumped all over that expert comment without context.

 

Honest question for the people who actually work in the field. If you were absolutely forced to make some kind of huge wager on Nelson's future, would you be willing to bet on him ever being close to his 2017 self again? Maybe some arbitrary cutoff like producing another 3 WAR season? Knowing what you know about shoulder surgeries, recovery, recurrence rates, and possible lingering issues like scar tissue and changes to proprioception? Based on my personal experience and the research I did before deciding not to have shoulder surgery again, I would never be able to bet on it even with very good odds. I'm with the people who think anything we get from him is kind of a bonus. And that's definitely NOT the same as saying I believe he's going to be bad; it's saying I'm not ready to be persuaded that he's going to be good by cliche spring training comments about how he's better than ever.

 

One man’s cliché is another man’s truth.

[MrTPlush]

lol the Brewers aren't going to hold Nelson in the minors for no reason. We were a win from the World Series...what is this madness being proposed. They are going to do everything they can to win it all...not play around with service time.

 

+1. The only reason he'd be in the minors is if he was unproductive or not 100% ready to pitch every 5th day. Service time is 0% of that equation.

 

At which point he will be in extended spring training or end up the DL. There is no reason to even option him to be honest. If he isn't ready for the start of the year he will easily just be put on the DL from the get go. Even if "healthy" and still working up starter strength/tweaking things Nelson won't care if they just put him on the DL and have him do the extended spring training and then go on a rehab assignment. He is on a MLB salary regardless of where he is and how.

[benji]

As of right now a 3 WAR season would be hard for me to predict. That being said the only info I have is what has been reported. That is not always accurate. Really is a wait and see situation.

 

 

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[KeithStone53151]

90-91 is fine at this point in ST. Hopefully he can get a couple ticks back.

 

[Brew crew 92]

Hoping brewers let him pitch in real spring training game next week.

Enough of the babying. He needs innings against non brewer hitters.

[DHonks]

Hoping brewers let him pitch in real spring training game next week.

Enough of the babying. He needs innings against non brewer hitters.

 

why? I don't care what he does in March. I want him to be pitching in Sept/Oct

[brewcrewdue80]

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

 

Not to mention how quickly this plan of action would prompt a grievance filed by Nelson's team and the players' union. It's one thing to leave him in extended spring training to buy a few more weeks to get his pitch count and arm strength up, but all indications are that he's in a similar spot in his conditioning that other pitchers are. While teams have the right to use minor league options as a way of retaining roster depth, a healthy Nelson anything close to his 2017 vintage is this team's best starter and it's not even close.

 

"shaking the rust off" is one thing, but that's far from intentionally holding him in the minors for 2/3rd of the season to try and squeeze an extra year of control out of him. If he's healthy I'd rather find out as early in the season as possible whether he's going to be effective...why waste 3 months of bullets in A or AAA? Plus, if he falls on his face early you might have an easier time justifying sending him down to the minors for an extended period after seeing the MLB results.

 

I've heard this same approach discussed about Davies, and at times Anderson if I'm not mistaken...to me that's leaning way too much on the young pitchers assuming they'll be lights out and injury free - plus it's a surefire way to tick off a big part of your clubhouse. If they truly find themselves with too many pitchers to avoid roster shenanigans with their more veteran arms, I'd rather they make a trade or two to thin the mid-rotation starter herd than dole out minor league options to major league-caliber talent.

 

Yep, if the Brewers try to pull these sort of shenanigans with a veteran ML pitcher in order to backdoor their way to an extra year of control, they deserve all the negative press they'd be likely to get. Fortunately I don't think Stearns and the rest of the team's management would even think of operating this won

 

I put the thought out there but apparently ignored was the question I posed while the scenario regaining year of control occurred.

Nelson Starts the season in the minors.

Nelson while on the mound suffers a setback and or reinjury.

Nelson while playing in the minors is out on DL for 2 or 3 months while back in Rehab.

 

On that instance, Is Nelson accruing any Service time? I would think not being optioned down there?

The train of thought on the possibility of a setback and that reward, was agreeing to a poster who says start the season at AAA. Because if he goes out there game #5 pitching for Brewers, has to be shutdown, his service clock will run while spending another season not pitching for the team on the DL.

[Brew crew 92]

Hoping brewers let him pitch in real spring training game next week.

Enough of the babying. He needs innings against non brewer hitters.

 

why? I don't care what he does in March. I want him to be pitching in Sept/Oct

 

Because he’s ready to pitch in games. I think brewers agree,but we’ll find out tomorrow. Love to see him build up his pitch count so he can open with the big club.

[stoutdude04]

Hoping brewers let him pitch in real spring training game next week.

Enough of the babying. He needs innings against non brewer hitters.

 

why? I don't care what he does in March. I want him to be pitching in Sept/Oct

 

Because he’s ready to pitch in games. I think brewers agree,but we’ll find out tomorrow. Love to see him build up his pitch count so he can open with the big club.

 

He can build up the pitch count by throwing simulated games.

[DHonks]

Hoping brewers let him pitch in real spring training game next week.

Enough of the babying. He needs innings against non brewer hitters.

 

why? I don't care what he does in March. I want him to be pitching in Sept/Oct

 

Because he’s ready to pitch in games. I think brewers agree,but we’ll find out tomorrow. Love to see him build up his pitch count so he can open with the big club.

 

What's the maximum allowable innings for Nelson this year? 100? 120? 150? I'd rather he be in extended spring training until May 1. I don't want him having too many limitations, and I'd hate to see him doing well in the pennant chase when he gets pulled for surpassing an innings allotment

[brewcrewdue80]

Because he’s ready to pitch in games. I think brewers agree,but we’ll find out tomorrow. Love to see him build up his pitch count so he can open with the big club.

 

What's the maximum allowable innings for Nelson this year? 100? 120? 150? I'd rather he be in extended spring training until May 1. I don't want him having too many limitations, and I'd hate to see him doing well in the pennant chase when he gets pulled for surpassing an innings allotment

 

 

Why not in the 170s? as the last 3 seasons he pitched reached?

[Brew crew 92]

If he opens with the big club i think he can throw 200+Innings. Which he was on pace to do before injury. If brewers make the playoffs and have a deep run and jimmy healthy all year he’ll probably throw at least that.

[MrTPlush]

Nelson should not have any limitations regarding his health.

 

Now could there be a hypothetical limitation because him throwing 180+ innings might tire him out and the tail end of those innings (plus playoffs) might be a empty tank Nelson.

[sveumrules]

Even if Nelson is "healthy" all year, I'd imagine he is still handled with some degree of caution - limited to twice through the lineup unless he's cruising, occasional skipped or pushed back start for extra rest, etc.

 

25 starts, 140 innings, 110 ERA+ seems like it falls somewhere in the overlap of the venn diagram with Optimistic & Realistic expectations for Jimmy's season . I'd glady accept anything over that & will certainly expect less.

[Brew crew 92]

Even if Nelson is "healthy" all year, I'd imagine he is still handled with some degree of caution - limited to twice through the lineup unless he's cruising, occasional skipped or pushed back start for extra rest, etc.

 

25 starts, 140 innings, 110 ERA+ seems like it falls somewhere in the overlap of the venn diagram with Optimistic & Realistic expectations for Jimmy's season . I'd glady accept anything over that & will certainly expect less.

 

If healthy,don’t think he will be limited as much as you say. Unless he’s ineffective, which I don’t think he will be.

[brewcrewdue80]

Fangraphs I think or maybe it was roto, anyway read Nelson threw 2IP yesterday with FB sitting around 90-91. So he's off about 3MPH for the moment.....

 

Here I actually still had the page open and it was Rotoworld

 

 

March 7, 2019

Nelson (shoulder) was satisfied with the way the ball was coming out in his two-inning intrasquad outing Thursday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

ANALYSIS

His fastball was clocked at 90-91 mph, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. Nelson said he wanted better results in the intrasquad match but said he felt good afterward. He is unsure what the next step will be, but is anxious to get into a Cactus League game.

[KeithStone53151]

Fangraphs I think or maybe it was roto, anyway read Nelson threw 2IP yesterday with FB sitting around 90-91. So he's off about 3MPH for the moment.....

 

Here I actually still had the page open and it was Rotoworld

 

 

March 7, 2019

Nelson (shoulder) was satisfied with the way the ball was coming out in his two-inning intrasquad outing Thursday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

ANALYSIS

His fastball was clocked at 90-91 mph, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. Nelson said he wanted better results in the intrasquad match but said he felt good afterward. He is unsure what the next step will be, but is anxious to get into a Cactus League game.

 

Guys don't always have their midseason velocity at this point in ST. This isn't overly concerning to me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nelson making his 2019 Cactus league debut Monday, per McCalvy

 

 

This makes me happy.

[Dean Machine]

i was standing next to the guy with the gun yesterday at the sim game (The Brewers had like 10 guys with laptops hooked up to cameras and the gun) and he was saying the speeds out loud and he hit 93 once and 92 once. That said, and i'm no scout, but Chase was pitching for the other "team" in the sim game and his stuff looked much more explosive and alive.

[brewmann04]

i was standing next to the guy with the gun yesterday at the sim game (The Brewers had like 10 guys with laptops hooked up to cameras and the gun) and he was saying the speeds out loud and he hit 93 once and 92 once. That said, and i'm no scout, but Chase was pitching for the other "team" in the sim game and his stuff looked much more explosive and alive.

 

Did you mean Chase stuff more explosive as flying out of the park

sorry I could not resist

[Brew crew 92]

As long as he’s healthy I predict he starts opening day.

[Brew crew 92]

As long as he’s healthy I predict he starts opening day.

 

Well there goes the opening day prediction out the window. Just read Brewers only pitching him 1 inning on Monday. Looks like no matter how good he’s throwing the Brewers have a plan in place to protect Jimmy from himself. Extended spring? AAA? Bullpen?

[young guns]

He may only pitch 1 inning in the game, but that doesn't mean they won't have him pitch some simulated stuff afterwards to continue ramping him up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They could very well pitch him in the opening game and have him on a 60-pitch limit too. I mean, would that really surprise anyone knowing how this team uses pitchers?

[82brewcrew82]

I'm too lazy to look but what do the off days look like early? Is it possible he's in the rotation but maybe held back until they need a fifth starter?