Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[JohnBriggs12]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board. I don't think it's overly optimistic to believe that some 17 months after his surgery that he's pain free and able to do the work all of the other pitchers in camp are doing. Will he be as effective in 2019 as he was in 2017? Since that was by all measures the best year of his career, it's a tall order even if he had never injured his shoulder but had sat out an entire year. His numbers in 2017 were close to the elite category. But it's also foolish to doubt that he can't be an effective pitcher in 2019.

 

The braintrust of the Brewers have a lot of work to do in setting up the rotation to start the year. There's more viable candidates than there are positions. They don't have to throw Nelson into the fray right away. But there's nothing so far to indicate that he isn't up to it. There's still over 3 weeks till the opener and plenty of ways for a pitcher in camp to get his work in, whether it's on the back fields in morning B games or in front of a paying crowd.

[brewcrewdue80]

It'll be interesting with the 2 options as Nelson currently sits at 4.107 service time. So if he happened to be sent down to the minors around 120days? that doesn't add to that service time, the Brewers would gain another year I believe in control? In a way they get the year back they lost last season. Not being ready for Opening day and pitching down in the minors to start the season, if he has a setback down there this becomes a realistic possibility. Meantime, you give Burnes/Woodruff/Davies/ and Anderson their chance to hold down a SP role.

[coolhandluke121]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board.

 

Subluxated my left shoulder and then dislocated it completely a few weeks later in high school football. Had a bankart reconstruction but either subluxated or completely dislocated the shoulder about 10-12 more times over the next 25 years. The instability has occurred in multiple directions and under different motions. The effect on my overall proprioception and sense of balance/symmetry has been profound. There's a lot of scar tissue as well. And with all that, there have been times that I felt 100%, just like Jimmy Nelson is saying now. But it was never 100% structurally sound, no matter how good it felt, and that's usually the case with surgeries - especially shoulders, which have very poor success rates compared to, say, torn ACLs or UCLs.

 

Also have a labrum torn in two places in my right shoulder. First had problems with overextending to stock high shelves for years, then tore the back of the labrum whipping a pass to someone behind me, followed by a minor anterior labral tear from lifting weights and then a more serious one from throwing too hard without warming up. I opted against surgery this time because it often doesn't make much difference for shoulders (and sometimes makes it worse). Bottom line, you just have to rehab the heck out of it, keep the rotator cuff as strong and healthy as possible, and hope for the best... but you can never have your original shoulder back, and trying to do the same things you did before will often lead to problems.

 

So I don't know how many shoulder experts there are here, but you better believe there's at least one.

[benji]

I just want to say this about the discussion. I am a shoulder expert sports medicine trained orthopedic surgeon and huge Brewer fan for my whole life. Nelson's tear was in the front and not the typical SLAP tear. Bottom line is there is little evidence to predict how it will go for him. I have done literature searches and there is no reports in the sports medicine journals for return to sports at a MLB level. This is simply because not many pitchers have had this procedure done. I guess what I am trying to say is I dont think the surgeon who did the surgery or the Brewers medical staff really know. Its frustrating I know. Its gonna have to be a wait and see approach and even if he pitches in April and May something could flair up in June. This will not be linear. There will be setbacks which won't necessarily mean its doomsday. To expect him to pitch at the 2017 level off the bat might be aggressive, certainly could be attainable by mid-season in my opinion.

[Brew crew 92]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board. I don't think it's overly optimistic to believe that some 17 months after his surgery that he's pain free and able to do the work all of the other pitchers in camp are doing. Will he be as effective in 2019 as he was in 2017? Since that was by all measures the best year of his career, it's a tall order even if he had never injured his shoulder but had sat out an entire year. His numbers in 2017 were close to the elite category. But it's also foolish to doubt that he can't be an effective pitcher in 2019.

 

The braintrust of the Brewers have a lot of work to do in setting up the rotation to start the year. There's more viable candidates than there are positions. They don't have to throw Nelson into the fray right away. But there's nothing so far to indicate that he isn't up to it. There's still over 3 weeks till the opener and plenty of ways for a pitcher in camp to get his work in, whether it's on the back fields in morning B games or in front of a paying crowd.

 

+1

Some people talking about Chase Anderson like he’s a scrub pitcher, even with the homeruns he allowed his ERA was still below 4.ABOVE AVE MLB

PITCHER.

[Humans Need Water]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board.

 

Subluxated my left shoulder and then dislocated it completely a few weeks later in high school football. Had a bankart reconstruction but either subluxated or completely dislocated the shoulder about 10-12 more times over the next 25 years. The instability has occurred in multiple directions and under different motions. The effect on my overall proprioception and sense of balance/symmetry has been profound. There's a lot of scar tissue as well. And with all that, there have been times that I felt 100%, just like Jimmy Nelson is saying now. But it was never 100% structurally sound, no matter how good it felt, and that's usually the case with surgeries - especially shoulders, which have very poor success rates compared to, say, torn ACLs or UCLs.

 

Also have a labrum torn in two places in my right shoulder. First had problems with overextending to stock high shelves for years, then tore the back of the labrum whipping a pass to someone behind me, followed by a minor anterior labral tear from lifting weights and then a more serious one from throwing too hard without warming up. I opted against surgery this time because it often doesn't make much difference for shoulders (and sometimes makes it worse). Bottom line, you just have to rehab the heck out of it, keep the rotator cuff as strong and healthy as possible, and hope for the best... but you can never have your original shoulder back, and trying to do the same things you did before will often lead to problems.

 

So I don't know how many shoulder experts there are here, but you better believe there's at least one.

Am I reading this correctly - you're saying you're a shoulder expert due to your personal injuries? All of which *aren't* what Nelson had surgery for nor are you working with the minds/experts he's working with. And that doesn't even touch on comparing your body to his in general.

 

Step off your pedestal - you're not a Dr. You're not board certified. You're an ex-patient.

 

The biggest problem in this discussion is people *assuming* those who are backing Nelson are saying he'll be at his 2017 level when literally nobody is saying that. Him being back means he'll be an effective starter, which also means he'll be better than a lot of other starters in that case. Literally nobody is saying he's 100% not going to be injured again moving forward or it's impossible there will be setbacks/flareups. The conversation is about him being ready come the end of March and how ready will that be or will it leak over to April before he can get to 100+ pitches and be deep in games.

 

And all the evidence we have thus far says he's on pace with everyone else. Nelson literally just said a bit ago he was scheduled to have a live BP session next but the team met in the middle with him so they're bumping it up to intrasquad game.

[homer]

I just want to say this about the discussion. I am a shoulder expert sports medicine trained orthopedic surgeon and huge Brewer fan for my whole life. Nelson's tear was in the front and not the typical SLAP tear. Bottom line is there is little evidence to predict how it will go for him. I have done literature searches and there is no reports in the sports medicine journals for return to sports at a MLB level. This is simply because not many pitchers have had this procedure done. I guess what I am trying to say is I dont think the surgeon who did the surgery or the Brewers medical staff really know. Its frustrating I know. Its gonna have to be a wait and see approach and even if he pitches in April and May something could flair up in June. This will not be linear. There will be setbacks which won't necessarily mean its doomsday. To expect him to pitch at the 2017 level off the bat might be aggressive, certainly could be attainable by mid-season in my opinion.

 

Well we have one actual shoulder expert at least.

[Brew crew 92]

I just want to say this about the discussion. I am a shoulder expert sports medicine trained orthopedic surgeon and huge Brewer fan for my whole life. Nelson's tear was in the front and not the typical SLAP tear. Bottom line is there is little evidence to predict how it will go for him. I have done literature searches and there is no reports in the sports medicine journals for return to sports at a MLB level. This is simply because not many pitchers have had this procedure done. I guess what I am trying to say is I dont think the surgeon who did the surgery or the Brewers medical staff really know. Its frustrating I know. Its gonna have to be a wait and see approach and even if he pitches in April and May something could flair up in June. This will not be linear. There will be setbacks which won't necessarily mean its doomsday. To expect him to pitch at the 2017 level off the bat might be aggressive, certainly could be attainable by mid-season in my opinion.

 

Thanks for the info and opinion Dr Benji. If you say mid-season and jimmy says opening day, I’ll meet you two in the middle and say 2017

Form may 15.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

I tend to think that Nelson will come back to a very good level. But I think he will pitch on Opening Day for the San Antonio Missions. I just see five healthier and better options.

 

Jimmy has two option years... they should not be afraid to use them.

 

This. There is no need to have him starting in the majors right away which would only add stress to the situation. Let him get his feet under him and continue to stretch out to full strength without the added pressure to win games. If by some change he looks really great early on in AAA then bring him up.

[pitchleague]

I just hope all of his lead offs from first base are literally one step away, all his singles stay as easy singles rather than rounding the bag, every time he runs the bases he stays up and NEVER slides headfirst, and that if he does go for extra bases he better make it standing up--if the outfielder didn't fall down, he better stay at first base.

Seriously, (hmm, maybe that first paragraph is actually serious, too) I really believe that he'll be okay. There WILL be some setbacks and there WILL be some successes. I'd be happy with 15-20 starts from him for the Brewers big league club. Any more would be gravy. I am not expecting 2017 Nelson. But it's certainly possible that there will be glimmers of that season in some of his appearances.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board.

 

Subluxated my left shoulder and then dislocated it completely a few weeks later in high school football. Had a bankart reconstruction but either subluxated or completely dislocated the shoulder about 10-12 more times over the next 25 years. The instability has occurred in multiple directions and under different motions. The effect on my overall proprioception and sense of balance/symmetry has been profound. There's a lot of scar tissue as well. And with all that, there have been times that I felt 100%, just like Jimmy Nelson is saying now. But it was never 100% structurally sound, no matter how good it felt, and that's usually the case with surgeries - especially shoulders, which have very poor success rates compared to, say, torn ACLs or UCLs.

 

Also have a labrum torn in two places in my right shoulder. First had problems with overextending to stock high shelves for years, then tore the back of the labrum whipping a pass to someone behind me, followed by a minor anterior labral tear from lifting weights and then a more serious one from throwing too hard without warming up. I opted against surgery this time because it often doesn't make much difference for shoulders (and sometimes makes it worse). Bottom line, you just have to rehab the heck out of it, keep the rotator cuff as strong and healthy as possible, and hope for the best... but you can never have your original shoulder back, and trying to do the same things you did before will often lead to problems.

 

So I don't know how many shoulder experts there are here, but you better believe there's at least one.

Am I reading this correctly - you're saying you're a shoulder expert due to your personal injuries? All of which *aren't* what Nelson had surgery for nor are you working with the minds/experts he's working with. And that doesn't even touch on comparing your body to his in general.

 

Step off your pedestal - you're not a Dr. You're not board certified. You're an ex-patient.

 

The biggest problem in this discussion is people *assuming* those who are backing Nelson are saying he'll be at his 2017 level when literally nobody is saying that. Him being back means he'll be an effective starter, which also means he'll be better than a lot of other starters in that case. Literally nobody is saying he's 100% not going to be injured again moving forward or it's impossible there will be setbacks/flareups. The conversation is about him being ready come the end of March and how ready will that be or will it leak over to April before he can get to 100+ pitches and be deep in games.

 

And all the evidence we have thus far says he's on pace with everyone else. Nelson literally just said a bit ago he was scheduled to have a live BP session next but the team met in the middle with him so they're bumping it up to intrasquad game.

 

Yes, people have literally said that. In fact, they took it one step further and agreed with Nelson when he said he'll be "better than ever." It's actually the whole reason I needed to put my Mr. Negative hat on in the first place.

 

Like Dr. benji, I'm also a "shoulder doctor." In my professional opinion, either he'll make it all the way back to an effective starting pitcher, or he won't.

[coolhandluke121]

I spent hundreds of hours with shoulder surgeons and physical therapists specializing in shoulder injuries. I've also experienced many of them first-hand and did a lot of research when deciding whether to have surgery again. That definitely makes me an expert by layman's standards, especially when it comes to responding to a condescending comment implying that those of us skeptical of Nelson's chances of a 100% recovery don't know anything about shoulder injuries.

[cesser000]

In my professional opinion, either he'll make it all the way back to an effective starting pitcher, or he won't.

So, in other words, he's either going to be a good pitcher, or he's gonna suck. I think that much is obvious.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think we need to scale back the tone here. Let's start playing nice guys or threads are going to get locked and people are going to get warnings and bans real quick. It's real easy to share opinions and thoughts, and even disagree with others without this condescension.

 

I had Tommy John surgery once on a ruined elbow, that doesn't make me an expert. I'm not a surgeon, I'm an IT guy

[pacopete4]

I think we need to scale back the tone here. Let's start playing nice guys or threads are going to get locked and people are going to get warnings and bans real quick. It's real easy to share opinions and thoughts, and even disagree with others without this condescension.

 

I had Tommy John surgery once on a ruined elbow, that doesn't make me an expert. I'm not a surgeon, I'm an IT guy

 

But did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express?

[clancyphile]

It'll be interesting with the 2 options as Nelson currently sits at 4.107 service time. So if he happened to be sent down to the minors around 120days? that doesn't add to that service time, the Brewers would gain another year I believe in control? In a way they get the year back they lost last season. Not being ready for Opening day and pitching down in the minors to start the season, if he has a setback down there this becomes a realistic possibility. Meantime, you give Burnes/Woodruff/Davies/ and Anderson their chance to hold down a SP role.

 

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

[And That]

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

Nelson needs just 65 days on the active roster to reach 5 years of service. They'd have to keep him in the minors until July 29th.

 

And once he reaches 5 years, he can decline optional assignment.

[HiAndTight]

Wow, I can't believe the number of shoulder experts on this board.

 

Subluxated my left shoulder and then dislocated it completely a few weeks later in high school football. Had a bankart reconstruction but either subluxated or completely dislocated the shoulder about 10-12 more times over the next 25 years. The instability has occurred in multiple directions and under different motions. The effect on my overall proprioception and sense of balance/symmetry has been profound. There's a lot of scar tissue as well. And with all that, there have been times that I felt 100%, just like Jimmy Nelson is saying now. But it was never 100% structurally sound, no matter how good it felt, and that's usually the case with surgeries - especially shoulders, which have very poor success rates compared to, say, torn ACLs or UCLs.

 

Also have a labrum torn in two places in my right shoulder. First had problems with overextending to stock high shelves for years, then tore the back of the labrum whipping a pass to someone behind me, followed by a minor anterior labral tear from lifting weights and then a more serious one from throwing too hard without warming up. I opted against surgery this time because it often doesn't make much difference for shoulders (and sometimes makes it worse). Bottom line, you just have to rehab the heck out of it, keep the rotator cuff as strong and healthy as possible, and hope for the best... but you can never have your original shoulder back, and trying to do the same things you did before will often lead to problems.

 

So I don't know how many shoulder experts there are here, but you better believe there's at least one.

 

Ok, ignoring the fact that you're calling yourself an expert because of your personal experience..which would make a great many of us experts, in your post you talk about how you initially hurt in playing HS sports and then over the next 25 years you continually had 10-12 dislocations...which I'm guessing you mean separations, but even if they were full actually 10-12 dislocations, you're still comparing and contrasting two different types of injuries and the bodies of a professional athlete who had a shoulder injury and then surgery at the age of 27 as opposed to you who had it at best in your 40's. And more importantly, the guy in his 20's went to elite specialists for intensive rehabilitation whereas even if you went to the same Doctors, I doubt there was a team around you helping you.

 

So bottom line, there are very few similarities between you and Nelson other than you both injured the same part of your body and had serious reconstructive surgeries. In which case, I too an am expert as I had torn most of my shoulder and was able to return to still compete in college. However today in my 30's, the time it takes for me to heal has grown exponentially. So I can expertly say at the very least, what just about anyone on here dealt with doesn't compare to the experience Nelson's dealing with.

 

Shoulder injuries are the most unpredictable injuries an athlete can have aside from the brain or back. That he's throwing right now pain-free is a good thing, and while it doesn't mean he's GOING to be the Jimmy Nelson was of the past, frankly, we're all too ignorant about his situation to accurately predict how he's going to recover.

 

So like I said in the past, since we don't know, why not just be optimistic, hope for the best and see how it goes. Isn't that kinda the fun of baseball at this point in the season? Especially for a team that improved it's talent and was just one game away from the World Series last year?

[Fear The Chorizo]

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

 

Not to mention how quickly this plan of action would prompt a grievance filed by Nelson's team and the players' union. It's one thing to leave him in extended spring training to buy a few more weeks to get his pitch count and arm strength up, but all indications are that he's in a similar spot in his conditioning that other pitchers are. While teams have the right to use minor league options as a way of retaining roster depth, a healthy Nelson anything close to his 2017 vintage is this team's best starter and it's not even close.

 

"shaking the rust off" is one thing, but that's far from intentionally holding him in the minors for 2/3rd of the season to try and squeeze an extra year of control out of him. If he's healthy I'd rather find out as early in the season as possible whether he's going to be effective...why waste 3 months of bullets in A or AAA? Plus, if he falls on his face early you might have an easier time justifying sending him down to the minors for an extended period after seeing the MLB results.

 

I've heard this same approach discussed about Davies, and at times Anderson if I'm not mistaken...to me that's leaning way too much on the young pitchers assuming they'll be lights out and injury free - plus it's a surefire way to tick off a big part of your clubhouse. If they truly find themselves with too many pitchers to avoid roster shenanigans with their more veteran arms, I'd rather they make a trade or two to thin the mid-rotation starter herd than dole out minor league options to major league-caliber talent.

[Brew crew 92]

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

 

Not to mention how quickly this plan of action would prompt a grievance filed by Nelson's team and the players' union. It's one thing to leave him in extended spring training to buy a few more weeks to get his pitch count and arm strength up, but all indications are that he's in a similar spot in his conditioning that other pitchers are. While teams have the right to use minor league options as a way of retaining roster depth, a healthy Nelson anything close to his 2017 vintage is this team's best starter and it's not even close.

 

"shaking the rust off" is one thing, but that's far from intentionally holding him in the minors for 2/3rd of the season to try and squeeze an extra year of control out of him. If he's healthy I'd rather find out as early in the season as possible whether he's going to be effective...why waste 3 months of bullets in A or AAA? Plus, if he falls on his face early you might have an easier time justifying sending him down to the minors for an extended period after seeing the MLB results.

 

I've heard this same approach discussed about Davies, and at times Anderson if I'm not mistaken...to me that's leaning way too much on the young pitchers assuming they'll be lights out and injury free - plus it's a surefire way to tick off a big part of your clubhouse. If they truly find themselves with too many pitchers to avoid roster shenanigans with their more veteran arms, I'd rather they make a trade or two to thin the mid-rotation starter herd than dole out minor league options to major league-caliber talent.

 

+1

[Roderick]

 

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

 

I would think they would want him somewhere warmer than Appleton.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In the minors, be it full-season A or AAA, they can control things better with Nelson. Maybe April in Appleton, May with the Missions, and with the Crew in June.

 

He shakes all the rust off in the minors, and that covers enough of the season to buy an extra year of team control.

 

Not to mention how quickly this plan of action would prompt a grievance filed by Nelson's team and the players' union. It's one thing to leave him in extended spring training to buy a few more weeks to get his pitch count and arm strength up, but all indications are that he's in a similar spot in his conditioning that other pitchers are. While teams have the right to use minor league options as a way of retaining roster depth, a healthy Nelson anything close to his 2017 vintage is this team's best starter and it's not even close.

 

"shaking the rust off" is one thing, but that's far from intentionally holding him in the minors for 2/3rd of the season to try and squeeze an extra year of control out of him. If he's healthy I'd rather find out as early in the season as possible whether he's going to be effective...why waste 3 months of bullets in A or AAA? Plus, if he falls on his face early you might have an easier time justifying sending him down to the minors for an extended period after seeing the MLB results.

 

I've heard this same approach discussed about Davies, and at times Anderson if I'm not mistaken...to me that's leaning way too much on the young pitchers assuming they'll be lights out and injury free - plus it's a surefire way to tick off a big part of your clubhouse. If they truly find themselves with too many pitchers to avoid roster shenanigans with their more veteran arms, I'd rather they make a trade or two to thin the mid-rotation starter herd than dole out minor league options to major league-caliber talent.

 

Yep, if the Brewers try to pull these sort of shenanigans with a veteran ML pitcher in order to backdoor their way to an extra year of control, they deserve all the negative press they'd be likely to get. Fortunately I don't think Stearns and the rest of the team's management would even think of operating this way.

[MrTPlush]

lol the Brewers aren't going to hold Nelson in the minors for no reason. We were a win from the World Series...what is this madness being proposed. They are going to do everything they can to win it all...not play around with service time.

[KeithStone53151]

lol the Brewers aren't going to hold Nelson in the minors for no reason. We were a win from the World Series...what is this madness being proposed. They are going to do everything they can to win it all...not play around with service time.

 

+1. The only reason he'd be in the minors is if he was unproductive or not 100% ready to pitch every 5th day. Service time is 0% of that equation.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Shoulder injuries are the most unpredictable injuries an athlete can have aside from the brain or back. That he's throwing right now pain-free is a good thing, and while it doesn't mean he's GOING to be the Jimmy Nelson was of the past, frankly, we're all too ignorant about his situation to accurately predict how he's going to recover.

 

So like I said in the past, since we don't know, why not just be optimistic, hope for the best and see how it goes. Isn't that kinda the fun of baseball at this point in the season? Especially for a team that improved it's talent and was just one game away from the World Series last year?

 

I feel that the context has been completely erased here. Someone sarcastically called out all the "shoulder experts" on this board for expressing completely reasonable doubts about whether Jimmy is going to be "better than ever". People are also being called out for being too negative about it, but all we're saying is basically what you're saying - that the shoulder is an extremely complex joint, throwing is a complex motion, and shoulder surgeries have uneven success rates, so therefore we're skeptical of him returning to form. I think it was obvious from the context that I wasn't claiming to be a shoulder surgeon, but only claiming to be enough of an expert on it to express skepticism about Nelson bouncing back 100%. I'm probably about as much of an expert as one can be without actually working in the field. People jumped all over that expert comment without context.

 

Honest question for the people who actually work in the field. If you were absolutely forced to make some kind of huge wager on Nelson's future, would you be willing to bet on him ever being close to his 2017 self again? Maybe some arbitrary cutoff like producing another 3 WAR season? Knowing what you know about shoulder surgeries, recovery, recurrence rates, and possible lingering issues like scar tissue and changes to proprioception? Based on my personal experience and the research I did before deciding not to have shoulder surgery again, I would never be able to bet on it even with very good odds. I'm with the people who think anything we get from him is kind of a bonus. And that's definitely NOT the same as saying I believe he's going to be bad; it's saying I'm not ready to be persuaded that he's going to be good by cliche spring training comments about how he's better than ever.