Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I’ll believe it when I see it. Remember when reports were that he was ahead of schedule and may be back by June....2018

 

That was just ridiculous speculation. Looking at past news reports, he was reported as being 'on schedule' in May 2018 which basically meant 2019 unless there was some sort of miracle. Then progress plateaued in the summer and he was officially declared out in August.

 

After such a long rehab his comments are the best you can hope for. Nobody is going to expect him to be a #1 starter this year but I admire his confidence.

 

 

That was coming from the Brewers organization. Not June per say, but that he may be ready as soon as before the ASB up until they shut him down and sent him back out when he took that two week break in May or whenever last year.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/18/17370484/jimmy-nelson-still-on-track-in-recovery-from-shoulder-surgery

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/1/28/16942356/brewers-on-deck-notes-jimmy-nelson-could-return-around-june

[OnTheBlack]

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/18/17370484/jimmy-nelson-still-on-track-in-recovery-from-shoulder-surgery

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/1/28/16942356/brewers-on-deck-notes-jimmy-nelson-could-return-around-june

 

 

I didn't remember specifically it being June, but I agreed with you, it wasn't just "ridiculous speculation," it was from the people in the Brewers organization who were talking about a pre-ASB return from Nelson last year. They certainly weren't saying in May that he was on schedule and that "basically meant" 2019 unless there was a miracle. They all seemed confident he'd be back at some point. The poster that replied to you suggested it was just fans throwing out ridiculous predictions.

 

 

Either way, he's back now, and I'm confident he's going to be the surprise player for us this year like Yelich was last year who picks up some of the slack from guys who performed a little better than expected did.

[owbc]

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/18/17370484/jimmy-nelson-still-on-track-in-recovery-from-shoulder-surgery

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/1/28/16942356/brewers-on-deck-notes-jimmy-nelson-could-return-around-june

 

 

I didn't remember specifically it being June, but I agreed with you, it wasn't just "ridiculous speculation," it was from the people in the Brewers organization who were talking about a pre-ASB return from Nelson last year. They certainly weren't saying in May that he was on schedule and that "basically meant" 2019 unless there was a miracle. They all seemed confident he'd be back at some point. The poster that replied to you suggested it was just fans throwing out ridiculous predictions.

 

 

Either way, he's back now, and I'm confident he's going to be the surprise player for us this year like Yelich was last year who picks up some of the slack from guys who performed a little better than expected did.

 

I'm guessing it was a typo. That's the only piece of information that ever suggested June 2018. Everything else was late 2018 at the earliest, most likely 2019, and a non-negligible risk of it being career ending. But if the Brewers did indeed say mid-2018 then I stand corrected.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/18/17370484/jimmy-nelson-still-on-track-in-recovery-from-shoulder-surgery

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/1/28/16942356/brewers-on-deck-notes-jimmy-nelson-could-return-around-june

 

 

I didn't remember specifically it being June, but I agreed with you, it wasn't just "ridiculous speculation," it was from the people in the Brewers organization who were talking about a pre-ASB return from Nelson last year. They certainly weren't saying in May that he was on schedule and that "basically meant" 2019 unless there was a miracle. They all seemed confident he'd be back at some point. The poster that replied to you suggested it was just fans throwing out ridiculous predictions.

 

 

Either way, he's back now, and I'm confident he's going to be the surprise player for us this year like Yelich was last year who picks up some of the slack from guys who performed a little better than expected did.

 

I guess that depends on your definition of "back." I'll say he's back when his velo returns to where it was pre-injury, then he needs to stay there consistently. Once he does that, still needs to show he doesn't have any set-backs and can get MLB hitters out consistently.

 

I'm still not optimistic he'll get there, but really hope I'm wrong.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I guess that depends on your definition of "back." I'll say he's back when his velo returns to where it was pre-injury, then he needs to stay there consistently. Once he does that, still needs to show he doesn't have any set-backs and can get MLB hitters out consistently.

 

It's just going to be impossible to really say Nelson's "back", given the fact that he was an extremely ho-hum MLB starter until 2017 when he seemingly put it all together for ~4 months.

 

While I understand the above line of thinking, I don't think it's realistic to compare anything Nelson does in 2019 to when he was at his best in 2017. If he's healthy and taking the ball every 5th day, that's about all the Brewers can hope for - he may be similar to what he was for that fleeting breakout he had in 2017, or he may revert back to being a ho-hum bottom of the rotation starter...regardless, his performance needs to be viewed with the perspective that he's pitching with a different shoulder than he had at any earlier point in his career - for better or worse, that's just the reality of it.

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess that depends on your definition of "back." I'll say he's back when his velo returns to where it was pre-injury, then he needs to stay there consistently. Once he does that, still needs to show he doesn't have any set-backs and can get MLB hitters out consistently.

 

It's just going to be impossible to really say Nelson's "back", given the fact that he was an extremely ho-hum MLB starter until 2017 when he seemingly put it all together for ~4 months.

 

While I understand the above line of thinking, I don't think it's realistic to compare anything Nelson does in 2019 to when he was at his best in 2017. If he's healthy and taking the ball every 5th day, that's about all the Brewers can hope for - he may be similar to what he was for that fleeting breakout he had in 2017, or he may revert back to being a ho-hum bottom of the rotation starter...regardless, his performance needs to be viewed with the perspective that he's pitching with a different shoulder than he had at any earlier point in his career - for better or worse, that's just the reality of it.

 

No question. I guess I'll use the word "serviceable." If he can even get back to that level, where he pitches every 5th day and he's serviceable I would consider he's "back." Even with that low bar, I have serious doubts he can return to even that level.

[Brew crew 92]

I guess that depends on your definition of "back." I'll say he's back when his velo returns to where it was pre-injury, then he needs to stay there consistently. Once he does that, still needs to show he doesn't have any set-backs and can get MLB hitters out consistently.

 

It's just going to be impossible to really say Nelson's "back", given the fact that he was an extremely ho-hum MLB starter until 2017 when he seemingly put it all together for ~4 months.

 

While I understand the above line of thinking, I don't think it's realistic to compare anything Nelson does in 2019 to when he was at his best in 2017. If he's healthy and taking the ball every 5th day, that's about all the Brewers can hope for - he may be similar to what he was for that fleeting breakout he had in 2017, or he may revert back to being a ho-hum bottom of the rotation starter...regardless, his performance needs to be viewed with the perspective that he's pitching with a different shoulder than he had at any earlier point in his career - for better or worse, that's just the reality of it.

 

No question. I guess I'll use the word "serviceable." If he can even get back to that level, where he pitches every 5th day and he's serviceable I would consider he's "back." Even with that low bar, I have serious doubts he can return to even that level.

 

Totally disagree with this negative line of thinking. His labrum tear was on

The front part of shoulder not the back like all other pitching injuries. Based upon this fact doctors say this injury less devastating To a pitcher

And should make a full recovery. He was at 88-91 last sept in instructs.

Now 20lbs heavier said he’s throwing harder with movement,breaking ball

Sharper in fact he said all his pitches better than ever. I agree with on the black, surprise player of the year

[Humans Need Water]

I guess that depends on your definition of "back." I'll say he's back when his velo returns to where it was pre-injury, then he needs to stay there consistently. Once he does that, still needs to show he doesn't have any set-backs and can get MLB hitters out consistently.

 

It's just going to be impossible to really say Nelson's "back", given the fact that he was an extremely ho-hum MLB starter until 2017 when he seemingly put it all together for ~4 months.

 

While I understand the above line of thinking, I don't think it's realistic to compare anything Nelson does in 2019 to when he was at his best in 2017. If he's healthy and taking the ball every 5th day, that's about all the Brewers can hope for - he may be similar to what he was for that fleeting breakout he had in 2017, or he may revert back to being a ho-hum bottom of the rotation starter...regardless, his performance needs to be viewed with the perspective that he's pitching with a different shoulder than he had at any earlier point in his career - for better or worse, that's just the reality of it.

 

No question. I guess I'll use the word "serviceable." If he can even get back to that level, where he pitches every 5th day and he's serviceable I would consider he's "back." Even with that low bar, I have serious doubts he can return to even that level.

 

Totally disagree with this negative line of thinking. His labrum tear was on

The front part of shoulder not the back like all other pitching injuries. Based upon this fact doctors say this injury less devastating To a pitcher

And should make a full recovery. He was at 88-91 last sept in instructs.

Now 20lbs heavier said he’s throwing harder with movement,breaking ball

Sharper in fact he said all his pitches better than ever. I agree with on the black, surprise player of the year

YES. It's annoying people continually skip over this fact. His tear was on the *opposite* side of the shoulder pitchers always tear and struggle to come back from. Nelson is clearly on his way back to where he was. There has been zero evidence suggesting otherwise. The only question is whether he'll be ready to throw 90-100 pitches opening day or if it'll take a little longer to do so.

[MrTPlush]

Nelson threw to live batters today. I don’t think he will be ready for opening day, but a good step.

 

There is zero evidence to show anything, no one knows. Jimmy Nelson saying he is better than ever is about the most meaningless thing under the sun. Every player says similar garbage ever spring training. It is like some kind of requirement.

[brewmann04]

yes very good to year

[FVBrewerFan]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

[OnTheBlack]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

 

 

So he didn't pitch in 2018. You're wording that in a way as if to suggest his layoff has been longer. Pitchers routinely miss seasons and come back and make a full recovery.

 

That said, I did say he'd be our "surprise" impact player this year because if he is healthy, he's going to have to deal with scar tissue and probably some pain at times(which is absolutely normal when coming back from a major shoulder injury and actually in some cases a good thing).

 

 

People seem to be trying too hard to make their cases though for their position. Throwing better than ever before and his stuff is sharper than it ever has been. Doubt it. I'll bet it was sharper during his breakout season. Then the flip side, hasn't pitched since all the way back in 2017 and he's nearing 30. So he'll turn 30 during the year and he missed a year. Not the first to do so. Or people will be happy if he ever just pitches again at a replacement level. Really? That's the "happy" outcome here?

 

I'm a Brewers fan, so I just choose to be optimistic...but we all understand the risks. It's a shoulder injury. Some never come back. Some return to form. It does seem to me that if someone is going to come back from this, Nelson would be the guy to do it. And who knows, maybe he is throwing better than ever before and he's ready to put up a 20 win season with a sub 2.50 ERA. We'll see. But in the mean time, I'm personally tired of all the hand wringing with each routine start that doesn't go well, or when he slips off the mound.

 

And the most profound statement I can think of...we'll see when we see. 162 game season and hopefully 3 more series after that season.

[clancyphile]

Totally disagree with this negative line of thinking. His labrum tear was on

The front part of shoulder not the back like all other pitching injuries. Based upon this fact doctors say this injury less devastating To a pitcher

And should make a full recovery. He was at 88-91 last sept in instructs.

Now 20lbs heavier said he’s throwing harder with movement,breaking ball

Sharper in fact he said all his pitches better than ever. I agree with on the black, surprise player of the year

YES. It's annoying people continually skip over this fact. His tear was on the *opposite* side of the shoulder pitchers always tear and struggle to come back from. Nelson is clearly on his way back to where he was. There has been zero evidence suggesting otherwise. The only question is whether he'll be ready to throw 90-100 pitches opening day or if it'll take a little longer to do so.

 

I tend to think that Nelson will come back to a very good level. But I think he will pitch on Opening Day for the San Antonio Missions. I just see five healthier and better options.

 

Jimmy has two option years... they should not be afraid to use them.

[OnTheBlack]

 

Jimmy has two option years... they should not be afraid to use them.

 

 

That seems reasonable given how they've talked about taking it slow with him. But if he is pitching opening day in SA, my guess would be that he'd be in Milwaukee then within a couple weeks.

 

Probably just as likely that he stays behind for extended ST'ing, builds up his arm, then gets a few starts in the minors for us at whatever level works out the best. Maybe it'll be 90 in April and that'll Appleton!

[Brew crew 92]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

 

Nelson past the rehab stage when he said he throwing better than ever.

I have no reason not to believe him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

 

The bolded part is the only part that really matters. None of us truly know what their plan is for Nelson at the outset of the year, but I would imagine if he does the multi-inning simulated game thing the end of this week, then gets into game action next week, he'll likely start the season on the MLB roster. I imagine they'll have him on a pretty strict pitch limit to start the year (probably something like 75 pitches) for his first few starts.

 

I'm optimistic as well. There's really no reason to poo on the hopes of fans who are excited to see progress from Nelson. If he doesn't make it back, it sucks ... but all signs right now are pointed to him making it back.

[FVBrewerFan]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

 

 

So he didn't pitch in 2018. You're wording that in a way as if to suggest his layoff has been longer. Pitchers routinely miss seasons and come back and make a full recovery.

 

That said, I did say he'd be our "surprise" impact player this year because if he is healthy, he's going to have to deal with scar tissue and probably some pain at times(which is absolutely normal when coming back from a major shoulder injury and actually in some cases a good thing).

 

 

People seem to be trying too hard to make their cases though for their position. Throwing better than ever before and his stuff is sharper than it ever has been. Doubt it. I'll bet it was sharper during his breakout season. Then the flip side, hasn't pitched since all the way back in 2017 and he's nearing 30. So he'll turn 30 during the year and he missed a year. Not the first to do so. Or people will be happy if he ever just pitches again at a replacement level. Really? That's the "happy" outcome here?

 

I'm a Brewers fan, so I just choose to be optimistic...but we all understand the risks. It's a shoulder injury. Some never come back. Some return to form. It does seem to me that if someone is going to come back from this, Nelson would be the guy to do it. And who knows, maybe he is throwing better than ever before and he's ready to put up a 20 win season with a sub 2.50 ERA. We'll see. But in the mean time, I'm personally tired of all the hand wringing with each routine start that doesn't go well, or when he slips off the mound.

 

And the most profound statement I can think of...we'll see when we see. 162 game season and hopefully 3 more series after that season.

 

Yea, I don't like playing the role of "Mr. Negative." The only reason I felt the need to chime in were all the overly-optimistic posts every time anything positive is announced. "He's better than ever" and "He said he wants to start opening day" stuff like that. Again, it's great HE has those goals. He's a competitor and should feel that way.

 

With what he's dealing with in his career and personal life, I'm pulling for him as hard as anyone else. Just trying to be realistic about seeing the 2017 version of Nelson, or possibly any version for an extended period of time.

[yoshii8]

I guess I don't understand the point of being realistic or negative about it, I would rather just take him for his word and hope that he really is feeling better than ever. I feel like I've been watching sports far too long to be totally surprised when a player either plays up or down to expectations.

 

Go Jimmy Nelson, cheers to you becoming our ace again!

[coolhandluke121]

I guess I don't understand the point of being realistic or negative about it, I would rather just take him for his word and hope that he really is feeling better than ever. I feel like I've been watching sports far too long to be totally surprised when a player either plays up or down to expectations.

 

Go Jimmy Nelson, cheers to you becoming our ace again!

 

Athletes do that all the time. They need to believe it and talk themselves into it just as much as some fans do. It would probably be foolish to bet on him being really good again.

[FVBrewerFan]

Other side of shoulder, yes. Its still his shoulder. Turning 30 in June, and hasnt pitched since 2017. Yea, sorry, Im not optimistic. Some of you are acting like its a given he will be back and pitch well. Nelson is optimistic as well, but he should be. Only way you can deal with rehab. We'll find out soon enough.

 

 

So he didn't pitch in 2018. You're wording that in a way as if to suggest his layoff has been longer. Pitchers routinely miss seasons and come back and make a full recovery.

 

That said, I did say he'd be our "surprise" impact player this year because if he is healthy, he's going to have to deal with scar tissue and probably some pain at times(which is absolutely normal when coming back from a major shoulder injury and actually in some cases a good thing).

 

 

People seem to be trying too hard to make their cases though for their position. Throwing better than ever before and his stuff is sharper than it ever has been. Doubt it. I'll bet it was sharper during his breakout season. Then the flip side, hasn't pitched since all the way back in 2017 and he's nearing 30. So he'll turn 30 during the year and he missed a year. Not the first to do so. Or people will be happy if he ever just pitches again at a replacement level. Really? That's the "happy" outcome here?

 

I'm a Brewers fan, so I just choose to be optimistic...but we all understand the risks. It's a shoulder injury. Some never come back. Some return to form. It does seem to me that if someone is going to come back from this, Nelson would be the guy to do it. And who knows, maybe he is throwing better than ever before and he's ready to put up a 20 win season with a sub 2.50 ERA. We'll see. But in the mean time, I'm personally tired of all the hand wringing with each routine start that doesn't go well, or when he slips off the mound.

 

And the most profound statement I can think of...we'll see when we see. 162 game season and hopefully 3 more series after that season.

 

Yea, I don't like playing the role of "Mr. Negative." The only reason I felt the need to chime in were all the overly-optimistic posts every time anything positive is announced. "He's better than ever" and "He said he wants to start opening day" stuff like that. Again, it's great HE has those goals. He's a competitor and should feel that way.

 

With what he's dealing with in his career and personal life, I'm pulling for him as hard as anyone else. Just trying to be realistic about seeing the 2017 version of Nelson, or possibly any version for an extended period of time.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Totally disagree with this negative line of thinking. His labrum tear was on

The front part of shoulder not the back like all other pitching injuries. Based upon this fact doctors say this injury less devastating To a pitcher

And should make a full recovery. He was at 88-91 last sept in instructs.

Now 20lbs heavier said he’s throwing harder with movement,breaking ball

Sharper in fact he said all his pitches better than ever. I agree with on the black, surprise player of the year

YES. It's annoying people continually skip over this fact. His tear was on the *opposite* side of the shoulder pitchers always tear and struggle to come back from. Nelson is clearly on his way back to where he was. There has been zero evidence suggesting otherwise. The only question is whether he'll be ready to throw 90-100 pitches opening day or if it'll take a little longer to do so.

 

This is not at all conclusive IMO. Just because it's not the part of his labrum that pitchers normally tear doesn't mean that it won't have a major detrimental effect on a pitcher who does tear it. Shoulders are complicated and unstable. Besides, the effect of surgery on creating scar tissue and changing proprioception could prove critical.

[Humans Need Water]

Nelson threw to live batters today. I don’t think he will be ready for opening day, but a good step.

 

There is zero evidence to show anything, no one knows. Jimmy Nelson saying he is better than ever is about the most meaningless thing under the sun. Every player says similar garbage ever spring training. It is like some kind of requirement.

1 - zero issues with his shoulder

2 - he's on the same pace and program as every other pitcher in camp

3 - his velocity is better at this point than usually is

4 - he, and the team, have felt great about every pen/live session he's had thus far (20-40 pitches each)

5 - there's 3.5wks until opening day so depending where he slots in the rotation he has 3.5-4wks to finish getting ready

 

It's easy to say there's zero evidence showing anything when you ignore all the evidence.

 

The only difference between his 20 or so pitch, 1 inning performance yesterday in live session compared to what Chacin, Woodruff, Peralta have done thus far is the batters they faced were in a game. But that doesn't matter much right now given Nelson's experience. He's doing one more live session before game action. And if he's not able to get up to 100+ pitches in spring then the Brewers can use April to get him from X number of pitches to Y given how the pen is built.

 

Nelson isn't injured right now. Neither is Davies. Pitchers come back after missing large chunks or full seasons all the time. *Right now* they're healthy. They're no longer injured. They're on the same pace/program as everyone else. Maybe they are injured moving forward but that can literally be said about, and happen to, any player. All that matters is right now they're healthy and they're on the same pace/program as everyone else.

[Brew crew 92]

I guess I don't understand the point of being realistic or negative about it, I would rather just take him for his word and hope that he really is feeling better than ever. I feel like I've been watching sports far too long to be totally surprised when a player either plays up or down to expectations.

 

Go Jimmy Nelson, cheers to you becoming our ace again!

 

Athletes do that all the time. They need to believe it and talk themselves into it just as much as some fans do. It would probably be foolish to bet on him being really good again.

 

Foolish on him being really good again... okey-dokey

[coolhandluke121]

I guess I don't understand the point of being realistic or negative about it, I would rather just take him for his word and hope that he really is feeling better than ever. I feel like I've been watching sports far too long to be totally surprised when a player either plays up or down to expectations.

 

Go Jimmy Nelson, cheers to you becoming our ace again!

 

Athletes do that all the time. They need to believe it and talk themselves into it just as much as some fans do. It would probably be foolish to bet on him being really good again.

 

Foolish on him being really good again... okey-dokey

 

Pitching is hard enough without any structural damage to a shoulder. I'm not saying it can't happen, but acting like it's going to happen is incredibly optimistic no matter what he says. I don't care for gambling at all, but if I did and my money was on the line, no way I'd bet on him bouncing back completely.

[bill hAll Star]

Athletes do that all the time. They need to believe it and talk themselves into it just as much as some fans do. It would probably be foolish to bet on him being really good again.

 

Foolish on him being really good again... okey-dokey

 

Pitching is hard enough without any structural damage to a shoulder. I'm not saying it can't happen, but acting like it's going to happen is incredibly optimistic no matter what he says. I don't care for gambling at all, but if I did and my money was on the line, no way I'd bet on him bouncing back completely.

 

And to add to that, Nelson had one really good year. Great, it seemed like he had turned the corner.

 

But as we're seeing with Chase Anderson, what if that version of Jimmy Nelson was actually the aberration. So now we're talking about a pitcher that we aren't even sure yet was that good and now take a few MPH off or give him less confidence in a pitch and I'm unfortunately skeptical.

 

It has nothing to do with him. Seems like a hard-working/good guy and he definitely could be better than ever. But the odds of it happening are low in my opinion. I'm in expect the worst, hope for the best mode. It's not impossible for him to come back and be really good but I will treat it as unlikely so as not to be too disappointed.