Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck

[Brew crew 92]

Do you have reason not to believe him now?

 

More than I did before, so yes. But let’s see what happens moving forward and see if jimmy was right after all.

But this is what you do, right? You make some over the top point and state it as a fact like you've come up with something novel. Then proceed to make 50 posts in 18 threads about it. Pfft to those who don't see it because you have it figured out. Then slowly but surely you back track on said point until you become an easy target for others.

 

You are passionate and you do make some solid points at times but its hard for anyone to take you seriously when you do the above and if you continue to do the above you are going to continue to get called on it.

 

Continue to get called out on a comment I made over 3 months ago that I admitted I was wrong the same day I said it. Ok.

[DHonks]

Continue to get called out on a comment I made over 3 months ago that I admitted I was wrong the same day I said it. Ok.

 

didn't you say we had something like 6 potential aces? I've taken things with a grain of salt since then. regardless, love seeing the enthusiasm. I remember my days in college spending lots of time on this site, posting a crap ton. Of course, back then it was all about the Link Report and the minor league forum, as our MLB teams were pretty bad.

[82brewcrew82]

Continue to get called out on a comment I made over 3 months ago that I admitted I was wrong the same day I said it. Ok.

Let's not pretend this isn't a pattern for you. Look, just some friendly advice. Ignore it, lash out over it, I don't really care.

[82brewcrew82]

Astros lineup littered with AAA bats because of injuries, so their lineup isn’t exactly scary good.

For instance........................

[Brew crew 92]

Continue to get called out on a comment I made over 3 months ago that I admitted I was wrong the same day I said it. Ok.

 

didn't you say we had something like 6 potential aces? I've taken things with a grain of salt since then. regardless, love seeing the enthusiasm. I remember my days in college spending lots of time on this site, posting a crap ton. Of course, back then it was all about the Link Report and the minor league forum, as our MLB teams were pretty bad.

 

Now it’s 6 aces.

 

3-4 tor arms including Nelson is what I said. Then admitted it was a silly prediction. And Every now and then it’s thrown back at me, but only by a certain few, and that’s ok because most see them for what they are.

[FVBrewerFan]

That's not the only time. Nelson will start opening day and better than ever. Brewers never pour it on. Counsel to blame for roster decisions. A few I can't recall off-hand. It's to the point where I hope you say the Brewers won't win the WS this year, then we'll be certain they will.

 

Nobody wants to poke at you, just stop giving us the ammunition. We're all just trying to help man, because you seem like a good guy.

[Brew crew 92]

Astros lineup littered with AAA bats because of injuries, so their lineup isn’t exactly scary good.

For instance........................

 

What are you talking about?

[TigerUppercut]

Continue to get called out on a comment I made over 3 months ago that I admitted I was wrong the same day I said it. Ok.

 

didn't you say we had something like 6 potential aces? I've taken things with a grain of salt since then. regardless, love seeing the enthusiasm. I remember my days in college spending lots of time on this site, posting a crap ton. Of course, back then it was all about the Link Report and the minor league forum, as our MLB teams were pretty bad.

 

Now it’s 6 aces.

 

3-4 tor arms including Nelson is what I said. Then admitted it was a silly prediction. And Every now and then it’s thrown back at me, but only by a certain few, and that’s ok because most see them for what they are.

 

Do we even have 1 "Ace?" Personally, I don't think so.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

[

 

Do we even have 1 "Ace." Personally, I don't think so.

 

Do we even need one is the best question I think. If we could get 4-5 guys putting up similar results and numbers to what Woodruff and Davies have done, that would be pretty great. Now if by "ace" you mean a guy with the confidence to take the ball in Game 7 of the NLCS and give you a chance to win ... I don't know. I'd like to think so.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Astros lineup littered with AAA bats because of injuries, so their lineup isn’t exactly scary good.

For instance........................

 

What are you talking about?

 

That was your response to me when I suggested that perhaps the Brewers were holding Nelson back for the Giants to avoid him having to face a tough Astros lineup. Yeah, kind of a "hindsight is 20/20" deal, but you get the point. That "AAA" lineup just put 10 up on the Brewers. It's a well-built team. Their backups and minor leaguers can hit, too. The Giants aren't nearly as deep top to bottom, and perhaps the team's analytics department crunched the numbers and made the determination that it was a better bet to give Nelson his second big league start in 18 months against the underwhelming Giants. Would Nelson have pitched better than Freddy tonight against the Astros? Well, I sure hope he would have, but it's a moot point now. It would have been crappy to see Nelson get baby sealed in his hometown with a bunch of his family watching. So I totally get it.

[Brew crew 92]

Their not scary good with out Altuve, Correa, and Springer. Nothing wrong with that comment. All I said earlier was for Peralta to Pitch in Nelson’s turn in the order when he’s struggling with command, and now it’s gonna be 10 days between starts, is setting Nelson up to fail, imo. The crew keeps talking about keeping jimmy in a routine, how he’s so routine orientated, and now they substitute him for Peralta, breaking up his routine, and at the worst possible time. I’ll be surprised if he has command of his pitches Saturday.

[MrTPlush]

[

 

Do we even have 1 "Ace." Personally, I don't think so.

 

Do we even need one is the best question I think. If we could get 4-5 guys putting up similar results and numbers to what Woodruff and Davies have done, that would be pretty great. Now if by "ace" you mean a guy with the confidence to take the ball in Game 7 of the NLCS and give you a chance to win ... I don't know. I'd like to think so.

 

History would tell you, yes....yes we do. Look it up, past World Series winners have aces. It hasn't happened since 2005 that a team really had no one considered an ace...that is pretty bad and a long time ago. The 2015 Royals might have a weak case as one of those teams, but they had Cueto. He may have pitched poorly at times, but when it came to the World Series he threw a gem in Game 2 for the win.

 

You pretty much have to hope and be an exception like the 2015 Royals...who had an absolutely ridiculous pen. One of which, sorry, we aren't even close to having. Wade Davis had a sub 1 ERA....almost impossible to fathom.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

[

 

Do we even have 1 "Ace." Personally, I don't think so.

 

Do we even need one is the best question I think. If we could get 4-5 guys putting up similar results and numbers to what Woodruff and Davies have done, that would be pretty great. Now if by "ace" you mean a guy with the confidence to take the ball in Game 7 of the NLCS and give you a chance to win ... I don't know. I'd like to think so.

 

History would tell you, yes....yes we do. Look it up, past World Series winners have aces. It hasn't happened since 2005 that a team really had no one considered an ace...that is pretty bad and a long time ago. The 2015 Royals might have a weak case as one of those teams, but they had Cueto. He may have pitched poorly at times, but when it came to the World Series he threw a gem in Game 2 for the win.

 

You pretty much have to hope and be an exception like the 2015 Royals...who had an absolutely ridiculous pen. One of which, sorry, we aren't even close to having. Wade Davis had a sub 1 ERA....almost impossible to fathom.

 

The thing is, the term "Ace" is pretty subjective. A lot of people saw Nelson as an ace in 2017, and he was 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA. Brandon Woodruff is sitting at 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA (skewed by a few poor early season starts) and is among the top strikeout pitchers in the league. Zach Davies is sitting at 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA. If both those guys continue to pitch well this year, how would they not be considered "aces"? We may possibly be witnessing two pitchers budding into that echelon.

[MrTPlush]

The thing is, the term "Ace" is pretty subjective. A lot of people saw Nelson as an ace in 2017, and he was 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA. Brandon Woodruff is sitting at 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA (skewed by a few poor early season starts) and is among the top strikeout pitchers in the league. Zach Davies is sitting at 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA. If both those guys continue to pitch well this year, how would they not be considered "aces"? We may possibly be witnessing two pitchers budding into that echelon.

 

Yah, I am not saying either of those guys can't be that....a bit early to say that.

 

Woodruff had an incredible May, but while having nice secondary numbers he has given up lots of runs in April/June. He is not dependable thus not an ace. I think he can and will get there eventually. Right now he just isn't consistently shutting down teams and showing up.

 

Davies isn't and won't be. His ERA is really low right now, cool story, it will balloon soon enough. His stats this year are hardly better than any other year of his career which has seen him just a touch below a 4 ERA 2/3 times. He can be a real solid mid rotation guy...but upper rotation, not even close honestly. If Chase Anderson was doomed for major regression, then Davies is about to be shot into another galaxy.

[tmwiese55]

That's not the only time. Nelson will start opening day and better than ever. Brewers never pour it on. Counsel to blame for roster decisions. A few I can't recall off-hand. It's to the point where I hope you say the Brewers won't win the WS this year, then we'll be certain they will.

 

Nobody wants to poke at you, just stop giving us the ammunition. We're all just trying to help man, because you seem like a good guy.

 

My favorites are the told ya so's after every good Peralta outings, which is like 1/4 appearances.

 

Wonder what they do there, walks issues from the minors seem to have gone down so maybe trust him as reliever to just come in and gas his one great pitch for a few batters. Then focus on a changeup in the offseason.

[homer]

[

 

Do we even have 1 "Ace." Personally, I don't think so.

 

Do we even need one is the best question I think. If we could get 4-5 guys putting up similar results and numbers to what Woodruff and Davies have done, that would be pretty great. Now if by "ace" you mean a guy with the confidence to take the ball in Game 7 of the NLCS and give you a chance to win ... I don't know. I'd like to think so.

 

History would tell you, yes....yes we do. Look it up, past World Series winners have aces. It hasn't happened since 2005 that a team really had no one considered an ace...that is pretty bad and a long time ago. The 2015 Royals might have a weak case as one of those teams, but they had Cueto. He may have pitched poorly at times, but when it came to the World Series he threw a gem in Game 2 for the win.

 

You pretty much have to hope and be an exception like the 2015 Royals...who had an absolutely ridiculous pen. One of which, sorry, we aren't even close to having. Wade Davis had a sub 1 ERA....almost impossible to fathom.

 

 

Obviously having an ace makes your team better over the course of a season and a team with an ace is more likely to get to the playoffs but I wonder how much aces matter to WIN a world series? I guess it would mean looking at all the world series winners and seeing how their aces did. Last year, for example, Chris Sale didn't really pitch all that great in the World Series yet Boston still won. Houston's ace was Keuchel I guess. He wasn't very good in the WS either. Cubs had a great staff overall. Hendricks and Lester were sort of co-aces and pitched well in the world series.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you just sort of thinking out loud. My theory is that you can't have any black holes on your staff more than you need a true ace but I could be wrong about that. Would need to look.

[tmwiese55]

Thing that's had me questioning this the last few years is that LAD and WAS haven't won (NAts not even making the WS) in spite of just loaded Ace level pitchers every postseason. Of course it's an advantage and everything if you have one but it doesn't seem to guarantee anything now that they've reduced off days in the playoffs so they can't pitch 3 games out of 7. Maybe the money can be more efficiently spent spread out improving other areas. Really though all I take from it is that it shows baseball is the flukiest game when it comes to the postseason so the key is just getting there and then anything can happen.

[MrTPlush]

Thing that's had me questioning this the last few years is that LAD and WAS haven't won (NAts not even making the WS) in spite of just loaded Ace level pitchers every postseason. Of course it's an advantage and everything if you have one but it doesn't seem to guarantee anything now that they've reduced off days in the playoffs so they can't pitch 3 games out of 7. Maybe the money can be more efficiently spent spread out improving other areas. Really though all I take from it is that it shows baseball is the flukiest game when it comes to the postseason so the key is just getting there and then anything can happen.

 

2018 Dodgers lost to Sale/Price

2017 Dodgers lost to a loaded Astros staff

2016 Indians lost to a loaded Cubs staff

2015 we already spoke of

2014 Royals lost to a loaded Giants staff

2013 Cardinals lost to a pretty loaded Red Sox staff

2012 Tigers lost to pretty darn good Giants staff

2011 Tigers lost to pretty elite Cardinals staff

 

 

Actually...I feel most of the time two teams with pretty darn good starters square off. Usually two guys who are arguably aces. Only one loaded staff can win and only two can make the World Series. Not saying it can't be done, but history says not having an ace, heck even two, is not a good start to WS dreams.

[tmwiese55]

Yea that's fair too. Overall I think that would simply also show how advantageous it is to have good starting pitching as it pertains just to making the playoffs. Then once you're there everyone has good pitching so anything can happen. And of course I totally agree it's an advantage we'd all take if we could get it.

 

But of those teams I think one could argue 11 Cards Ace would've been what an old Carpenter or maybe Wainwright, IDK how good either were at the time to be 'ace' level. Bumgarner, of course counts in those years. Bost was Lester/Bucholz. Again good Ps but not like true 'ace'. Cubs had old Lester, Arrietta, Hendrick. Arrietta for that like 1.5 year stretch was ridiculous that's for sure. But they beat true Ace Kluber I think twice. I know they beat true Ace Kershaw to make the WS. Verlander rebounded in 2017 to be Ace like again so yea that works. Sale of course Ace as well.

 

I'm sure some of this has me just using a tighter definition of the word "ace" than most but what you point to me also shows good pitching staffs all the way through are key. not necessarily "needing" the true Ace though in Kershaw, Max, prime Bum, Stras, etc. Of course I'd want the true Ace but just saying it shows it can be done with depth and several good 2nd or 3rd tier guys as well even without true ace. Long story short I guess of what I'm getting at is: Definitely an advantage to have a guy like that but no guarantees, and there is certainly other ways to do it. That said, I for sure know I'd like one more workhorse type in the line of what Woodruff is trending towards right now.

 

Note that I'm not saying MKE even has that now since the Pen is not what it was last year. But what they put together in a creative way would've had them toe to toe with anyone, just like they did.

[Brew crew 92]

I still think the brewers made a mistake in not starting Jimmy last Tuesday, but whatever, they had their reasons. 10 days since his last start obviously doesn’t bode well for him to try to regain command of his pitches. Not expecting a great start, but he needs to pitch, and hopefully he’ll surprise today.

[Smichaelis9]

I still think the brewers made a mistake in not starting Jimmy last Tuesday, but whatever, they had their reasons. 10 days since his last start obviously doesn’t bode well for him to try to regain command of his pitches. Not expecting a great start, but he needs to pitch, and hopefully he’ll surprise today.

I saw you say this on Tuesday... I guess I just don’t understand how you think you understand the amount of rest he needs, during the comeback from a major injury, more than the Brewers do...

[Brew crew 92]

I still think the brewers made a mistake in not starting Jimmy last Tuesday, but whatever, they had their reasons. 10 days since his last start obviously doesn’t bode well for him to try to regain command of his pitches. Not expecting a great start, but he needs to pitch, and hopefully he’ll surprise today.

I saw you say this on Tuesday... I guess I just don’t understand how you think you understand the amount of rest he needs, during the comeback from a major injury, more than the Brewers do...

 

I don’t.

Just don’t think it’s about rest.

[DHonks]

I still think the brewers made a mistake in not starting Jimmy last Tuesday, but whatever, they had their reasons. 10 days since his last start obviously doesn’t bode well for him to try to regain command of his pitches. Not expecting a great start, but he needs to pitch, and hopefully he’ll surprise today.

 

Such a weird statement. Jimmy is working hard in his bullpen sessions to improve each and every time. He's going to be innings-limited this year. I want Jimmy strong in Sept, and don't care about him this time of year. I'm a golfer, and by your logic a player can't work on their issues on the range, but rather only by playing.

[Brew crew 92]

I still think the brewers made a mistake in not starting Jimmy last Tuesday, but whatever, they had their reasons. 10 days since his last start obviously doesn’t bode well for him to try to regain command of his pitches. Not expecting a great start, but he needs to pitch, and hopefully he’ll surprise today.

 

Such a weird statement. Jimmy is working hard in his bullpen sessions to improve each and every time. He's going to be innings-limited this year. I want Jimmy strong in Sept, and don't care about him this time of year. I'm a golfer, and by your logic a player can't work on their issues on the range, but rather only by playing.

 

I don’t think it’s gonna matter much anyhow, he has no stamina, 50-60 pitches and velo down a couple ticks. I think we’ll see him in the pen soon.

[pacopete4]

You don’t get stamina by going to the bullpen.