Braun Working on a Swing Change

[sveumrules]

They needed a starting RF, not a 4th OF. The stuff they've done to accommodate Braun, despite his salary, health, and production, is a curse.

 

Do you anticipate this curse lasting more or less than 108 years?

[coolhandluke121]

They needed a starting RF, not a 4th OF. The stuff they've done to accommodate Braun, despite his salary, health, and production, is a curse.

 

Do you anticipate this curse lasting more or less than 108 years?

 

I don't know but I do intend to complain about it for at least that long.

[3and2Fastball]

They needed a starting RF, not a 4th OF. The stuff they've done to accommodate Braun, despite his salary, health, and production, is a curse.

 

Do you anticipate this curse lasting more or less than 108 years?

 

I'll take the under on the 108 year curse.

 

I think it is way overdue for Braun to be a platoon player. His ability to focus in the clutch would make him a better than average pinch hitter, as well.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun is back under .200 ... Again, I ask:

 

If he is still below .200 by June 1st, will he be benched?

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/28721/ryan-braun

[adambr2]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

[wntrtxn21]

Braun is the typical end-of-a-big-contract MLB player. Washed up and no longer a viable starter. He's getting worse as time goes on. It's time to look for a starting RF (move Yelich back to LF) and let Braun be the RH pinch hitter and occasional LF. That would mean moving Gamel down or trading Aguilar. Corey Ray has played himself out of consideration for big league status. I don't know if Taylor is ready after a short time in AAA.

[NYChez]

Hopefully his .220 BABIP improves.

[tmwiese55]

Hopefully his .220 BABIP improves.

 

How do the hard hit stats and things like that look? Last year all those things were still positive to give hope or that he was getting unlucky. Eyeball test this year, that does not seem to be the case. Of course some here and there, but that happens to everyone. For the most part I think his biggest flaw is pitch recognition, flailing at stuff way out of the zone, not getting walks, etc.

 

ETA: Thanks for response and info

[bill hAll Star]

Hopefully his .220 BABIP improves.

 

How do the hard hit stats and things like that look? Last year all those things were still positive to give hope or that he was getting unlucky. Eyeball test this year, that does not seem to be the case. Of course some here and there, but that happens to everyone. For the most part I think his biggest flaw is pitch recognition, flailing at stuff way out of the zone, not getting walks, etc.

 

Basically the same on hard%, LD%, soft% as last year's profile finished.

 

He's putting the ball in the air more and also pulling it more so far. Not sure what to make of that other than maybe he's able to be shifted easier.

[bill hAll Star]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

 

Well the funny thing is that person was still wrong.

 

I get that he's probably of rotational OF quality these days instead of an everday caliber starter/stud...but he ended up being fine last year and given context shouldn't have been DFA'ed.

 

I also get that we're paying for past production with him and many questioned the extension as it was as well as not shipping him off in the Puig/McCarthy deal.

 

OK, all of that said, he's off to a similar start as last year. Let's see if he finishes as a ~1.5 WAR guy again once the hard hit balls find grass. Domingo Santana lit the first few weeks on fire but is playing bad defense and regressing. Of course if I was given the option of having Domingo's first month vs. Braun's, I'd take Domingo...but there's a pretty good chance that they end up finishing with similar seasons outside of Braun maybe having to sit a few more times.

 

Nuance taken into account, yes it hurts Joe Casual fan to see, "arggg this guy is making $18 million and this guy is making $3 million" but we all know that every team is going to have a few good contracts and a few bad ones. Braun is basically the only bad one outside of Albers' little contract and maybe Chase Anderson depending on how one thinks he finishes the year. It is what it is and all things considered, there's a good chance he's about on par with Domingo Santana this year.

[OnTheBlack]

They needed a starting RF, not a 4th OF. The stuff they've done to accommodate Braun, despite his salary, health, and production, is a curse.

 

I don't disagree. But it is what it is. Braun is gonna be looked at as a starter as long as he's on this team. The best we can hope for as fans is that he finds a few hot streaks and helps carry the offense in short bursts. Santana was never going to displace Ryan Braun in the lineup, no matter how much sense it made.

 

 

If you're talking about coming into this season, I disagree. There was every reason to believe Braun would be a productive hitter in...~135 games. Ben Gamel fills in the rest of the games and you have two good OF'ers in AAA.

 

I haven't noticed a change in approach, but I know last year he was just unlucky and there wasn't any reason that I saw to not expect him to improve.

 

I don't think Santana got enough rope last year and I think his low WAR this year is as mis-leading as...say Brett Lawrie's from early in his career. He was a below average OF'er, but he wasn't a butcher.

 

Short of just not trading Santana though, to what extent do you go to in order to acquire a starting RF'er? You spent money at catcher, you spent money at 2nd base, you tried to spend some on Kimbrel. I don't see any suggesting you go out and spent 18.25 million on a RF'er like Grandal, but how much? 10? I just don't feel like this was predictable. That Braun would look as bad as he has AND Aguilar would. I fully expected Braun to be back around .280/.350/.500 this year given how he looked last year.

[OnTheBlack]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

 

Well the funny thing is that person was still wrong.

 

I get that he's probably of rotational OF quality these days instead of an everday caliber starter/stud...but he ended up being fine last year and given context shouldn't have been DFA'ed.

 

I also get that we're paying for past production with him and many questioned the extension as it was as well as not shipping him off in the Puig/McCarthy deal.

 

OK, all of that said, he's off to a similar start as last year. Let's see if he finishes as a ~1.5 WAR guy again once the hard hit balls find grass. Domingo Santana lit the first few weeks on fire but is playing bad defense and regressing. Of course if I was given the option of having Domingo's first month vs. Braun's, I'd take Domingo...but there's a pretty good chance that they end up finishing with similar seasons outside of Braun maybe having to sit a few more times.

 

Nuance taken into account, yes it hurts Joe Casual fan to see, "arggg this guy is making $18 million and this guy is making $3 million" but we all know that every team is going to have a few good contracts and a few bad ones. Braun is basically the only bad one outside of Albers' little contract and maybe Chase Anderson depending on how one thinks he finishes the year. It is what it is and all things considered, there's a good chance he's about on par with Domingo Santana this year.

 

 

I'd bet if you took the time to look the top 15 payrolls in baseball, you'll find maybe one or two who have more wasted money in their payroll. I think Anderson's worth his deal...if you take a more negative view, he's got a little negative value. Albers is getting paid 2.5 I think?

 

And your one bad contract is arguably your franchise best hitter who's nearing the end of his deal. It's not like we've got Chris Davis on our payroll.

[Outlander]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

 

Well the funny thing is that person was still wrong.

No, the real funny thing is the poster wasn't wrong. The poster never said Braun should be DFA when the post was made. It was at what point would Braun be DFA. Certainly a fair question now, if Braun plays this way all year, is he gone after the season? Maybe. I remember how horrible it was when I was a kid in 1987 seeing Cecil Cooper on the team and not getting any playing time the last two months of his career. At some point the Brewers will have to let go.

[bill hAll Star]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

 

Well the funny thing is that person was still wrong.

No, the real funny thing is the poster wasn't wrong. The poster never said Braun should be DFA when the post was made. It was at what point would Braun be DFA. Certainly a fair question now, if Braun plays this way all year, is he gone after the season? Maybe. I remember how horrible it was when I was a kid in 1987 seeing Cecil Cooper on the team and not getting any playing time the last two months of his career. At some point the Brewers will have to let go.

 

I may have read it wrong.

 

"DFAed last year" meaning "we should've DFAed him last year." I recall the thread and there were several people asking to DFA him last year. However, I think the poster meant, "the thread about DFAing him was started last year."

 

In that case, sure. Could happen this year or next but I doubt it. They'll just give him a fake injury if he really looks like he's done later this year or early next year.

[bill hAll Star]

Someone started a thread on Braun being DFAed last year and was just ridiculed for it.

 

He's not going to be DFAed, but it doesn't sound nearly as ridiculous anymore.

 

Well the funny thing is that person was still wrong.

 

I get that he's probably of rotational OF quality these days instead of an everday caliber starter/stud...but he ended up being fine last year and given context shouldn't have been DFA'ed.

 

I also get that we're paying for past production with him and many questioned the extension as it was as well as not shipping him off in the Puig/McCarthy deal.

 

OK, all of that said, he's off to a similar start as last year. Let's see if he finishes as a ~1.5 WAR guy again once the hard hit balls find grass. Domingo Santana lit the first few weeks on fire but is playing bad defense and regressing. Of course if I was given the option of having Domingo's first month vs. Braun's, I'd take Domingo...but there's a pretty good chance that they end up finishing with similar seasons outside of Braun maybe having to sit a few more times.

 

Nuance taken into account, yes it hurts Joe Casual fan to see, "arggg this guy is making $18 million and this guy is making $3 million" but we all know that every team is going to have a few good contracts and a few bad ones. Braun is basically the only bad one outside of Albers' little contract and maybe Chase Anderson depending on how one thinks he finishes the year. It is what it is and all things considered, there's a good chance he's about on par with Domingo Santana this year.

 

 

I'd bet if you took the time to look the top 15 payrolls in baseball, you'll find maybe one or two who have more wasted money in their payroll. I think Anderson's worth his deal...if you take a more negative view, he's got a little negative value. Albers is getting paid 2.5 I think?

 

And your one bad contract is arguably your franchise best hitter who's nearing the end of his deal. It's not like we've got Chris Davis on our payroll.

 

I'm assuming you mean "one or two who have less wasted on their payroll?

[IntentionalHBP]

is contract reconstruction allowed? I doubt this will happen but it would be nice to save money now and pay him later.

[pacopete4]

is contract reconstruction allowed? I doubt this will happen but it would be nice to save money now and pay him later.

 

Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.

[Ennder]

Brauns xwOBA was .370 last year, anyone who talked about him being DFA'd is just a moron and nothing else last season. His stats this year are much more concerning and have nothing at all to do with what happend last season. I'm guessing it is still just small sample but at least it is supported by the stats that matter and not just the stats that people who don't understand baseball prioritize.

[TJseven7]

It's a shame that Dodgers trade from a few years ago never went though. I could really go for a 50/50 platoon of him and Gamel the moment Yelich is healthy.

[bill hAll Star]

is contract reconstruction allowed? I doubt this will happen but it would be nice to save money now and pay him later.

 

Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.

 

On top of that, we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of the contract on the books, this year is already paid out unless you think that Braun's salary will inhibit a midseason acquisition. Next year it goes down and is the final guaranteed year. Then a buyout year, which will be interesting. I can't imagine he's worth anywhere near $15 million, but $4 of it is already a sunk cost in the buyout and Mark will probably fear the optics of buying out Braun.

[adambr2]

is contract reconstruction allowed? I doubt this will happen but it would be nice to save money now and pay him later.

 

Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.

 

On top of that, we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of the contract on the books, this year is already paid out unless you think that Braun's salary will inhibit a midseason acquisition. Next year it goes down and is the final guaranteed year. Then a buyout year, which will be interesting. I can't imagine he's worth anywhere near $15 million, but $4 of it is already a sunk cost in the buyout and Mark will probably fear the optics of buying out Braun.

 

The optics? Even the casual fan can see his performance declining significantly. I think the optics of paying a net $11M to burn a roster spot on a replacement level player would be much worse.

 

2020 is his last year as a Brewer, IMO. Barring some sort of amazing late career resurgence, no way is his 2021 option getting picked up.

[pacopete4]

It's just too early to know. Both in this season and future seasons. Who knows what types of moves will be available to us between then and now. The Brewers have been pretty active in a lot of ways over the past few seasons.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Braun's start to this year looks very similar to his April-May splits from last season - some of that is due to his regression as a player, but some is also due to bad luck with that babip...it's still too early to write him off, because he will have stretches of games where he can still carry them offensively. That being said, his days as a #3 hitter in lineups should be over due to that inconsistency that comes with age/regression. He isn't a lineup anchor anymore - I'd much rather see him in the #5-7 range in most batting orders assuming all the other key Brewer regulars are healthy.

 

I'm hoping Aguilar/Thames remains a 1B platoon, and Shaw finds a way to get going - assuming Yelich's absence isn't prolonged, I'd love to see lineups consisting of Cain/Yelich at the top followed by a 3-5 comprised of Grandal, Moose, and 1B in some order. Then you can plug in Shaw/Braun at spots 6-7.

 

Gamel provides tremendous value to this team as a 4th OF, which is his best role moving forward. He'll get extended PT just subbing for the regular OFs, let alone a few stints playing everyday during likely DL stints.

 

And I highly doubt a $4Mil buyout would be bad optics to rid themselves of Braun's payroll obligation if the writing is on the wall two offseasons from now that he's done as a player...that $11M will be much better spent on arbitration salaries/FA on prime-age players.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Why would he do this though? He already made a deal to pay him his worth further down the road. It’d take paying him even more money to do this.

 

On top of that, we're very close to the light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of the contract on the books, this year is already paid out unless you think that Braun's salary will inhibit a midseason acquisition. Next year it goes down and is the final guaranteed year. Then a buyout year, which will be interesting. I can't imagine he's worth anywhere near $15 million, but $4 of it is already a sunk cost in the buyout and Mark will probably fear the optics of buying out Braun.

 

The optics? Even the casual fan can see his performance declining significantly. I think the optics of paying a net $11M to burn a roster spot on a replacement level player would be much worse.

 

2020 is his last year as a Brewer, IMO. Barring some sort of amazing late career resurgence, no way is his 2021 option getting picked up.

 

I assumed the chances were over 100% that someone would comment on that part. I may not have made it too clear, I think we'll decline the option but I do think Mark may think twice about it.

 

Mark picked up a similar option on Aramis Ramirez in 2015 where the choice was, $4 million on nothing or $16 million on an aging starter who was on the decline in the previous season. If the farm system is not fruitful and we're in our last "going for it" year and Braun hasn't fallen off a cliff, you never know.

[jerichoholicninja]

Is he blocking a younger better player at the moment? I really don't think so. The money's spent whether he's on the team or not. I guess I would rather take his current production with the chance he's going to put together some All Star level streaks here and there. The floor is probably about the same as anyone they would call up but there's a much higher ceiling with Braun.