Braun Working on a Swing Change

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Nice Fangraphs article touching on this topic...

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/ryan-braun-isnt-done-yet/

 

Kinda lands on both sides of this discussion. Based upon how hard Braun was hitting the ball, the case can surely be made to change nothing. On the flip-side the argument is made that his tweaks are with eliminating bad luck in mind. I'm skeptical of altering a swing that data suggests should have resulted in .296 AVG, .515 SLG, .368 wOBA but as a fan I'd much rather just hope it works out.

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs 2019 BABIP Surgers Article lists the players with the biggest 2018 discrepancy between BABIP and xBABIP. I'll let you guess who tops the list for lowest BABIP as compared to their expected BABIP.

[KeithStone53151]

There's a pretty significant gap between him and the next guy as well. Hard to not expect a much better season based on that.

[igor67]

Even in reduced ABs for health a return to that form has a huge impact on the team and line-up especially once the post season rolls around. I want to believe Stat Cast

[coolhandluke121]

I don't think Braun's talent is in the upper echelon of a Willie Mays or Ted Williams (Mays had one of his best offensive seasons at age 34, Williams at 38) but he's in there with the next tier.

 

Wow. That's a pretty big tier. I'm sure a lot of people who aren't Brewer fans also have him one tier below those guys though.

[BrewFan130]

I like the idea of Braun willing to try something different in an effort to better his game. I have no doubt that between his back surgery and nerve issue in is thumb that over the years he’s probably not getting the bat around as fast as he once did. Worse case scenario he can always go back to his original swing. I think Braun is about the only player I’ve heard of who’s had the same swing from high school and through his career in the MLB

[RollieTime]

https://apnews.com/cbe6c73dcf594854ae27b0705f4d7393

 

Pretty good article with Braun talking about his swing change. In the article, he said that the ball is traveling further now than it has in a long time, possibly ever.

 

I think Braun will really surprise people this season and put up numbers similar to his 2016 season. Hopefully he can stay healthy all season and play around 130 games.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Per Adam McCalvy...

 

Ryan Braun has been working with a private hitting coach this winter and is making changes to his swing for the first time ever. Call it the launch angle revolution or whatever, but he's trying to turn some of those hard outs into home runs.

 

Personally, I think this is a mistake. Hitting the ball hard is the most important thing. Bad luck shouldn't be a reason to make changes. Hopefully this doesn't backfire like it did for Harper.

 

So far not so good. Maybe it will turn around for Ryan soon.

[adambr2]

Every year there's fluff pieces on a new swing, a new stance, lasik eye surgery making everything clearer, "best shape of my life", etc etc.

 

Most of it never amounts to a hill of beans.

 

Braun is probably done. He's not THIS bad, but he's probably a platoon player now and certainly should never be hitting 3rd.

 

Hanley Ramirez is about the same age as Braun and was also once one of the best players in baseball. He was just DFAed. Age has caught up to both of them.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Every year there's fluff pieces on a new swing, a new stance, lasik eye surgery making everything clearer, "best shape of my life", etc etc.

 

Most of it never amounts to a hill of beans.

 

Braun is probably done. He's not THIS bad, but he's probably a platoon player now and certainly should never be hitting 3rd.

 

Hanley Ramirez is about the same age as Braun and was also once one of the best players in baseball. He was just DFAed. Age has caught up to both of them.

 

Braun's exit velocity was great last year. He was hitting into a lot of bad luck. I'd like to see him scrap whatever change he made. If not hopefully the tinkering he did shows positive results soon. I was leery from the start though.

 

Still think the best adjustment he could make is a shorter, lighter bat.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There we go!

[Ennder]

Braun's struggles on the year have nothing to do with launch angle, it has all been about plate control. He is barrelling the ball well, he has a good launch angle, he is hitting the ball hard, he is just striking out too much and not taking any walks.

[sveumrules]

Braun's struggles on the year have nothing to do with launch angle, it has all been about plate control. He is barrelling the ball well, he has a good launch angle, he is hitting the ball hard, he is just striking out too much and not taking any walks.

 

Yup. Career BB%/K% of 8.1/18.5 vs 4.3/25.7 so far in 2019.

 

That will tend to happen when you have a 13.1 swinging strike % vs a 9.8 career average. Braun also has a 54.8 contact % on out of zone pitches vs a 66.7 career average, that is a huge dropoff. He's also swinging at more out of zone pitches this year, 37.4% vs a 34.0% career average.

 

Add it all up & Ryan has only seen 39.4% of pitches in the zone vs a career average of 44.1. The book seems to be, pitch him out of the zone, he will swing & not make contact.

[Austin Tatious]

Yeah he seems to be chasing off speed pitches down and away a lot. I’m surprised to see him chase so often out of the zone. His confidence used to be extraordinary.

[pacopete4]

I wonder if he’s trying to do too much. He’s buddies with Yelich. He worked out with him all off season trying to get in a position to do more this year and now he’s he’s swinging at bad pitches. Hopefully he will settle in and get going. Tonight was a big swing from him.

[rickh150]

Gone are the days of him hitting it hard to right center....

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Wait so people don't think a change in swing to create launch angle has any effect on contact rates or chase percentage? If he changed his hand position it can even change how quickly he reacts to pitches. And if it affected his loading it can lead to chasing more out of the zone. It's as if people think changing his launch angle simply means more fly balls. Lol, there can be many more negative consequences. His line drive percentage is down to 12.5% from 23% last year.

 

I hope tonight's HR is a sign of things to come but let's not act like there's no chance that this swing change was a bad idea.

[xisxisxis]

This year is starting out like last year where he will be a weight on the offense as his replacement level performance is not of any value at $18M this year and $16M next year. He should be in a firm platoon with Gamel and the first PH off the bench when not starting. His days of being a regular should be done, but Counsell will trot him out there 90% of the time because he was once really good...

 

His blind squirrel performance last night will get him months of playing time that is no longer justified... And he'll get plenty of options to hit as teams start to pitch around Yelich...

[pacopete4]

Well that’s an awful take imo. We are like 75 ABs into the season. Sure am glad CC doesn’t panic or overreact to small sample sizes. It usually pays off the Brewers. Gamel will get plenty of opportunities as should Braun to get himself on track.

[PeaveyFury]

I do think it's worth questioning whether he should automatically be put in the middle of the order when he's in. Granted, with Jesus and Shaw hitting poorly as well, there aren't a ton of other options, but it feels like Braun would be a better fit at 6-7, at least until he starts drawing walks again.

[sveumrules]

but Counsell will trot him out there 90% of the time because he was once really good

 

So far Braun has started 16 of 22 games, about 73%.

 

He would have to start 130 of our remaining 140 games to hit 90%.

 

Even if he is "healthy" all season & starts hitting closer to his last couple two tree years, I don't think that's happening.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun hasn’t been a middle of the order bat since 2016.

One doesn’t have to wonder any longer if he is a middle of the order bat right now. Then again at this point the rest of the line up is absolute garbage...so what does it matter.

[coolhandluke121]

Do yourself a favor and don't check Domingo Santana's stats. Or Puig's in 2017 and 2018. Or Choi's. Or Khris Davis's (not that they should have kept him, but much like Santana, they wouldn't have had to trade him at his lowest possible value if they hadn't been stuck with Braun).

 

That botched Dodger trade is the gift that keeps on giving. They almost cut Aguilar in spring training last year because they thought Braun would be the RHB 1B. How much wreckage is there going to be in the wake of that failed trade when it's all said and done? It's bad enough that they're paying him what they are when they could spend the money on depth, let alone all the personnel losses listed above to accommodate him on the roster. It's one of the most soul-sucking things I've ever experienced as a fan, right up there with Jabari Parker and Tony Mandarich.

[pacopete4]

Soul sucking? Lol a bit dramatic. Domingo is slowly creeping down after his hot start. Davis probably doesn’t own a glove and for good reason. Puig was pretty comparable over the last couple of seasons and comes with baggage. And no one saw Aguilar being worth anything and is looking more and more like just some guy.

[adambr2]

Soul sucking? Lol a bit dramatic. Domingo is slowly creeping down after his hot start. Davis probably doesn’t own a glove and for good reason. Puig was pretty comparable over the last couple of seasons and comes with baggage. And no one saw Aguilar being worth anything and is looking more and more like just some guy.

 

True, but there's one important aspect missing here.

 

None of those guys cost $20M or anything close to it.

 

That's a ton of payroll flexibility that has been lost for very mediocre production.

 

Stearns would never say it out loud, but I don't doubt the Braun no-trade of August 2016 was one of his more regrettable moves that didnt happen.