Pollock signs with Dodgers; 4-years, $55M+

[KeithStone53151]

[KeithStone53151]

Passan says 5/$60M range. That might seem a touch low, but for a 31 year old injury prone guy that played in a hitter friendly park...a 5 year guarantee is a pretty good deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This move makes all the sense in the world. Surprised it took as long as it did.

[JDBrewCrew]

Bob Nightengale

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@BNightengale

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Pollock receives a 5-year deal from #Dodgers with escalators and opt outs.

[KeithStone53151]

Escalators and opt outs would definitely move this closer to being a more fair deal given Pollock's upside if he can stay healthy. I'll be curious to see the final details.

 

[Lathund]

Yeah the full details of the escalators and opt-outs will be interesting, as anywhere close to 5/60 would be a steal. It's more years than you'd like, but it's just a $60m dollar commitment which is nothing to the Dodgers. Despite the missed time due to injuries he's still averaged 3+ WAR per season, and is well worth taking a chance on.

[KeithStone53151]

The Dodgers prior to this deal were just under $20M under the luxury tax for 2019. This probably moves them to between $5 and 10M from the luxury tax depending on how the contract is paid out. This almost definitively slams the door on any chances they go for Harper as their outfield is now set.

[KeithStone53151]

This guy says 4/$50M guarantee now...

 

[reillymcshane]

This guy says 4/$50M guarantee now...

 

Heyman says $55M+

 

[Nader Raider Tim]

Dang, I was sure that AJ was going to have to settle for a 1 year deal. Good for him, I've always liked him. Just hate he's a Dodger now.

[reillymcshane]

Pollack was a hard one to peg with regards to a contract. Good player, but lots of injuries. Only played in 112 and 113 games in 2016/17. Missed almost all of 2105. Hard to back up the truck to a guy who is 31 and has had that many injuries.

 

Sounds like lots of escalators and incentives and opt outs - no doubt rewarding Pollack if he can stay healthy.

[Lathund]

4/$55m, with an opt-out after 3 years. 5th year is a player option for $10m or a buyout for $5m.

 

[KeithStone53151]

4/$55m, with an opt-out after 3 years. 5th year is a player option for $10m or a buyout for $5m.

 

 

Rosenthal broke it out as well. I think it's $4/50M with the opt out at 3. The player option piece looks correct, and would get him to $60M if Pollock exercises his end.

[KeithStone53151]

Hard to imagine a situation where he wouldn't opt out after 3 years but would also turn down his player option and instead take the buyout. This will likely end up being 3/$40ish million or 5/$60M

[RollieTime]

$65 Million for 5 years for Pollock even if he can’t stay healthy. Pretty good security for him. I don’t think he will want to hit the free agent market at 34 again even if he can after seeing how the last couple offseasons have gone. I don’t see him turning down approximately $24 million total for his age 34 and 35 seasons.

[xisxisxis]

Those numbers are pretty proportional to what Lorenzo Cain got last year (including the 5th year player option), given that both signed FA contract at age 31, injury history and better historical performance from Cain...

[JosephC]

I like Pollock as a player, but it's hard to ignore that games played column on the stat sheet. Think Braun has a durability problem? Over the last five years Pollock has averaged 94 games played per season. During that timeframe Braun has played in 639 games and Pollack has played in 469. On average, Braun has averaged 34 more games per season, over a full month worth of games. The average value per year of Pollock's deal is pretty attractive, but there is no way I could justify 5 years on a 30+ year old with an extensive history of missing games at this rate.

 

Really surprised that Harper did not wind up in a Dodger uniform, especially after they moved Puig and Kemp off the roster. Have to wonder if teams really fear a rapid and steep decline in Harper's defense...because when I look at the guy he seems as sure a bet as any to be a superior offensive player over the next 7-10 years. The guy had a pretty mediocre stretch that nearly lasted half the season, and he still finished with a .393 OBP, .889 OPS, 34 HR and 100 RBI.

[KeithStone53151]

I like Pollock as a player, but it's hard to ignore that games played column on the stat sheet. Think Braun has a durability problem? Over the last five years Pollock has averaged 94 games played per season. During that timeframe Braun has played in 639 games and Pollack has played in 469. On average, Braun has averaged 34 more games per season, over a full month worth of games. The average value per year of Pollock's deal is pretty attractive, but there is no way I could justify 5 years on a 30+ year old with an extensive history of missing games at this rate.

 

Really surprised that Harper did not wind up in a Dodger uniform, especially after they moved Puig and Kemp off the roster. Have to wonder if teams really fear a rapid and steep decline in Harper's defense...because when I look at the guy he seems as sure a bet as any to be a superior offensive player over the next 7-10 years. The guy had a pretty mediocre stretch that nearly lasted half the season, and he still finished with a .393 OBP, .889 OPS, 34 HR and 100 RBI.

 

I believe I saw somewhere the Nats hitting coach saying that Harper got too caught up with the launch angle stuff the first half of 2018. When he reverted back to just trying to drive baseballs, that's when he got back to success. I think it's a bit crazy to expect a steep decline from Harper. He's got a cannon and that isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and his body type doesn't seem likely to have a steep speed dropoff. I wonder if many teams simply didn't even begin to get involved because of the anticipated ask. Why would the Brewers waste time with more than a courtesy call when there is 0 chance we can afford 30 million? Frankly, I'm ready for these guys to sign a contract.

[tmwiese55]

Harper in a weird way might now be being underrated. I know that's crazy on the surface since he hasn't quite lived up to the hype and overrating that came with it. Kind of like since he didn't live up to hype he's now being ripped on which is weirdly making him seem worse than he is. The low BA thing is there but he always has a great OBP and obviously that's very important. Is he worth some crazy 40 mil per for 500 mil deal, no of course not. But high OBP, tons of HRs, good speed, etc is all there.

 

I don't see why he'd be pegged as someone to regress sharply on D at age 26. He's in great shape and has a good build. From what I understand he's only so so at CF but fine or good at the corners. I don't see why that would change anytime soon. Really surprising LA didn't find a way to get this done as presumably his price is falling off the crazy initial ask

[jerichoholicninja]

Harper in a weird way might now be being underrated. I know that's crazy on the surface since he hasn't quite lived up to the hype and overrating that came with it. Kind of like since he didn't live up to hype he's now being ripped on which is weirdly making him seem worse than he is. The low BA thing is there but he always has a great OBP and obviously that's very important. Is he worth some crazy 40 mil per for 500 mil deal, no of course not. But high OBP, tons of HRs, good speed, etc is all there.

 

He's averaged 30+ HR a season, career OBP near .400 and OPS at .900. Not sure how much more he needs to do to live up to the hype. But I agree with the overall point that he's almost underrated now. I agree his contract demands and whatever he actually gets will be ridiculous but we're talking one of the best hitters in baseball and he still should be for another 4-6 years.

[tmwiese55]

Basically he was supposed to be Trout, best player ever discussion level. That was the hype initially so that's what I was getting at, but yea we're on the same page.

[xisxisxis]

He's averaged 30+ HR a season, career OBP near .400 and OPS at .900. Not sure how much more he needs to do to live up to the hype. But I agree with the overall point that he's almost underrated now. I agree his contract demands and whatever he actually gets will be ridiculous but we're talking one of the best hitters in baseball and he still should be for another 4-6 years.

Harper has a fWAR of 30.7 over 7 seasons with the nationals. Over that time that puts Harper 12th on the list of positional players. The list is actually Trout, an almost 50% drop, then the rest of the players in MLB. The press and hype over Harper exceeds about 8 of the players that are above him on the fWAR list for his career.

 

Mike Trout has a fWAR of 64.7 in 7+ (7.25 ish) seasons in MLB. That's the player who should get the next record breaking contract.

 

Edit: Machado is 15th on that list and Cain/Yelich are 18/19.

[tmwiese55]

The list is actually Trout, an almost 50% drop,

 

The guy is just absurd, unreal what he's doing

[KeithStone53151]

The list is actually Trout, an almost 50% drop,

 

The guy is just absurd, unreal what he's doing

 

Seriously though. That guy could almost quit baseball now and still get into the hall. Trout I could see teams bidding for in the manner that was anticipated for Harper.

[xisxisxis]

The guy is just absurd, unreal what he's doing

Yep. And if he played for an East Coastish team, he'd get the recognition he deserves. I think the late start of West Coast games just prevents a lot of people from seeing him play and recognizing that he could be the greatest player of all time.