Remaining top free agent predictions

[bill hAll Star]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?

 

Kimbrel. I'd prefer to get through 4-5 innings with someone else and then close out 50 or 60 games that are close or we have a lead in with Kimbrel, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Claudio.

 

Keuchel may be able to push back an inferior starter or move someone else to the bullpen but in theory he could end up being only about as valuable as Chacin was last year.

 

And even with all of that, if they sign Keuchel to a reasonable deal, I'd be fine with it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?

 

I could potentially see a lot of value in both, and I love solid starters, but with the way the Brewers use their pitchers, I think they'd probably value Kimbrel more. I mean, the fact that the pen was a major strength last year surely didn't stop them from trading for Soria in an effort to create a super pen. That move basically worked, too.

[JosephC]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?

 

Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.

[bill hAll Star]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?

 

Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.

 

I don't think his role would be rigid or specific with woke Counsell.

 

You could also argue that you'd be paying Keuchel $15 million to pitch hopefully a little bit better than Jhoulys Chacin is not a great investment. And if you extend it to years beyond this one, Kimbrel may age a bit better (though that is debatable).

 

One could maybe compare this to paying up for Case Keenum vs. paying up for Le'Veon Bell. A potentially elite player at a "less important" (but fairly important if deployed correctly) or a pretty good player at a very important position. Of course all sorts of debates can rage on about how good Keuchel will be and how that works into the comparison.

[wallus]

Keuchel for me and it also isn't close. He has shown that he can go through the order three times without losing much effectiveness. That would have a tremendous value to our starting rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Well kind of a hard question when one doesn't have contract options to pick from. I will take Kimbrel though. Probably a shorter contract and cheaper. Our rotation will be fine. If we need to get a back end guy to solidify it, fine...but we probably have enough depth. Keuchel just isn't a huge difference maker to me over what we have.

 

While last October proves no ones performance is guarantee (Kimbrel was bad) I want the bullpen guy. Bullpen bullpen bullpen...that is the pitching that wins a World Series. Keuchel is not the kind of starter that is going to be ungodly in the postseason. The only thing that makes me want Keuchel is the fact he may help more getting to the postseason, which is obviously important. I am pretty confident this team can get there just as well with Kimbrel (and grabbing a starter in July if need be). So I want Kimbrel.

 

I am guessing Kimbrel would sign for a lot less than one would expect though in my analysis....and I also don't particularly want to spend big money on either. So really neither is the right answer...but if I was spending the money regardless...Kimbrel.

[wallus]

Well kind of a hard question when one doesn't have contract options to pick from. I will take Kimbrel though. Probably a shorter contract and cheaper. Our rotation will be fine. If we need to get a back end guy to solidify it, fine...but we probably have enough depth. Keuchel just isn't a huge difference maker to me over what we have.

 

While last October proves no ones performance is guarantee (Kimbrel was bad) I want the bullpen guy. Bullpen bullpen bullpen...that is the pitching that wins a World Series. Keuchel is not the kind of starter that is going to be ungodly in the postseason. The only thing that makes me want Keuchel is the fact he may help more getting to the postseason, which is obviously important. I am pretty confident this team can get there just as well with Kimbrel (and grabbing a starter in July if need be). So I want Kimbrel.

 

I am guessing Kimbrel would sign for a lot less than one would expect though in my analysis....and I also don't particularly want to spend big money on either. So really neither is the right answer...but if I was spending the money regardless...Kimbrel.

 

Keuchel would be a left handed starter that we could use for matchups. He would give us another year of control on one of our good young starting pitchers that we could stash in the minors/keep in reserve. I am more concerned about our starting pitching depth than I am about our bullpen depth.

 

I have a lot of confidence in our "A" bullpen guys (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Claudio, Guerra). Kimbrel would add to that group but not as much as Keuchel adding to our starting pitcher depth.

[yoshii8]

I'd be thrilled and super surprised if we signed either Keuchel or Kimbrel, both would be pretty huge additions.

[Brew crew 92]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?

 

Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.

 

Disagree good sir. I’ll take 40+ saves from arguably the best closer in the game today. Knebel,Hader and hopefully healthy Jeffress can lock down the 7th & 8th inning. His signing also protects us from an injured or ineffective Jeffress.

[brewmann04]

I still have hope David has one more addition to make and its one of these two guys never have enough pitching.

[JosephC]

Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.

[KeithStone53151]

Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.

 

Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.

[bill hAll Star]

Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.

 

Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.

 

Moustakas, probably Keuchel, and...?

 

Most of this just seems to be the crappy reality of owners making a switch to the system where non-elite guys won't get long-term deals in their 30s and Moustakas and Keuchel (debatable) were left holding the bag.

 

EDIT: And OK, I guess Maldonado.

[KeithStone53151]

Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.

 

Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.

 

Moustakas, probably Keuchel, and...?

 

Most of this just seems to be the crappy reality of owners making a switch to the system where non-elite guys won't get long-term deals in their 30s and Moustakas and Keuchel (debatable) were left holding the bag.

 

EDIT: And OK, I guess Maldonado.

 

Pollock, Mccutchen, Eovaldi, Lemehiu, Murphy...all got multi-year deals and guess what these guys all have in common?

 

Also don't forget about Greg Holland last year.

[stalton]

There's evidence on both sides where Boras has done well/poorly for his players. At what point does enough people are hampered by Boras where it tarnishes his ability to get the really good contracts?

[bill hAll Star]

 

Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.

 

Moustakas, probably Keuchel, and...?

 

Most of this just seems to be the crappy reality of owners making a switch to the system where non-elite guys won't get long-term deals in their 30s and Moustakas and Keuchel (debatable) were left holding the bag.

 

EDIT: And OK, I guess Maldonado.

 

Pollock, Mccutchen, Eovaldi, Lemehiu, Murphy...all got multi-year deals and guess what these guys all have in common?

 

Also don't forget about Greg Holland last year.

 

Guys that have Boras probably know they are taking a bit of a risk. Moustakas and Howard are still with him even after being screwed (more likely by unlucky year of baseball system changing).

 

Guys will take the chance that they're the next Greg Holland in hopes that they can be the next Eric Hosmer.

 

Boras doesn't have many free agents of worth this year, but many of the other guys like Holland and Britton signed "prove it" deals. Britton may have taken more money and only 1 year to keep trying to bet on himself. Ditto on Moustakas.

[KeithStone53151]

If this is true, Boras is seriously an idiot. Wow what a great deal that would have been for Maldonado. Considering he's going on 33 and a terrible hitter, and he's only made $8.5 million in his career...$12 million is life changing money. He'll be lucky to make that much over the rest of his career. What in the world was Boras thinking?

 

[JosephC]

That's terrible. And in a market where, at absolute best, Maldonado would rank no higher than the 3rd best catcher. Many would argue that Suzuki should also be rated higher but at least that could be debated. And if one wanted to expand the list of available catchers to trade opportunities, then Realmuto was out there too.

 

Again, Boras gets an A++++++ for getting a team to dump 330 million into a player who has been a 3.1 bWAR/fWAR player over the last three seasons. Pretty remarkable work there. But he gets an F for what he did to Maldonado.

[TURBO]

If this is true, Boras is seriously an idiot. Wow what a great deal that would have been for Maldonado. Considering he's going on 33 and a terrible hitter, and he's only made $8.5 million in his career...$12 million is life changing money. He'll be lucky to make that much over the rest of his career. What in the world was Boras thinking?

 

 

That is a complete and total FAIL on the part of Boras. Does he have Maldonado so brainwashed that he thinks he can get more?

 

Maldonado looks a bit foolish here too.

[Austin Tatious]

Boras is lost and rudderless in the new environment where Ivy League general managers do a better job of recognizing the true contract value of players rather than overpaying for past performance, which was the norm for forty years.

 

He’s notorious for having his assistants prepare fancy binders of players’ portfolios but that isn’t going to be consistent with today’s environment where you have to justify future performance.

 

Some of these absurd contracts, like Pujols’, just kill the player’s association. They miss a bright guy like Marvin Miller. They don’t think with foresight and haven’t adapted. They aren’t going to be able to make a collusion case when the data kills them.

[HarveysWBs]

Boras is lost and rudderless in the new environment where Ivy League general managers do a better job of recognizing the true contract value of players rather than overpaying for past performance, which was the norm for forty years.

 

He’s notorious for having his assistants prepare fancy binders of players’ portfolios but that isn’t going to be consistent with today’s environment where you have to justify future performance.

 

Some of these absurd contracts, like Pujols’, just kill the player’s association. They miss a bright guy like Marvin Miller. They don’t think with foresight and haven’t adapted. They aren’t going to be able to make a collusion case when the data kills them.

 

Putting Boras' antics to one side (and I agree, he was always a bit ridiculous, and is now fast becoming a dinosaur) he is not necessarily wrong to complain about the dynamics of the current climate at the end of this CBA. Yes, Boras' big-name clients and other blue chip players of the past decade plus have lived high on the hog and received massive overpays during their declining years. This has been often described as a way to compensate players for their past performance, with many scoffing at this notion. But the obvious core of truth at the heart of this argument is that if the old vets tend to be overpaid, then the young players--from the arbitration guys all the way down to the kids in rookie ball--are massively underpaid in the current system. Minor leaguers in many cases can barely make ends meet, and due to team-friendly aspects of the CBA allowing for arbitration control and service time manipulation, even young stars get nowhere near their worth in some of the prime years of their careers. Now as teams are all in unison about not overpaying for vets, and in a time of record-setting revenue streams all across the game, as ludicrous as it may seem, the players and their representatives can make a strong case that they are not receiving their due.

 

On all of this, I am torn. Being a fan of the smallest market team in baseball means that this team-friendly environment can reap handsome rewards for a team savvy enough to maximize the angles. The David Stearns era (and I'll even give the late-Melvin era a little credit here) has certainly been about doing just that. Yet, I cannot help but fear that as the rest of the league gets just as savvy, those advantages will become nil, and the Brewers will fall behind again due to salary constraints. And, of course, if players remain this dissatisfied, and the owners are unwilling or unable to find a way to strike a balance between overpaying vets and underpaying youth, then labor strife could bring the game to a grinding halt.

 

Long story short, many in this current crop of FAs, including the two big names still out there (Keuchel and Kimbrel) played much of the early years of their career while being paid less than their worth, with the understanding that their free agent deals would make up for it. Now, as their free agency arrives, the owners in unison decide to only pay vets for expected future performance. Both sides are right, and I don't see a way to square the circle, at least for this current group of players.

[KeithStone53151]

Does anyone think one or both of Keuchel/Kimbrel won't be signed by opening day? I'm starting to think both guys are going to start the season as free agents.

[Brew crew 92]

Does anyone think one or both of Keuchel/Kimbrel won't be signed by opening day? I'm starting to think both guys are going to start the season as free agents.

 

Not kimbrel, he’s signing with the brewers sometime before then!

[brewmann04]

I still think we going to see one in a brewers uniform this year

[jerichoholicninja]

Does anyone think one or both of Keuchel/Kimbrel won't be signed by opening day? I'm starting to think both guys are going to start the season as free agents.

 

At this point they could probably get more money waiting until the season starts and some team gets desperate after some injuries.