Remaining top free agent predictions

[long ball]

Boras clients in green. He's shown a willingness to wait out the market with his clients so it's not a huge surprise his clients make up about half of this list. I updated your list with my own feelings on these guys.

 

James Shields (borderline)

Bryce Harper Multi year

Manny Machado Multi year

Adam Jones (Borderline)

Ervin Santana (coming off injury)

Dallas Keuchel multi year

Craig Kimbrel Multi year

Matt Wieters (minor league deal)

Denard Span (borderline)

Gio Gonzalez

Carlos Gonzalez (borderline)

Ryan Madson (Borderline, I know he was solid in the postseason, but his season totals were uninspiring and he's 38 yo)

Josh Harrison (borderline)

Evan Gattis (minor league deal)

Mike Moustakas

Jose Iglesias

Tony Sipp

Carlos Gomez (minor league deal)

Martin Maldonado

Marwin Gonzalez Multi year

Adam Warren

Cameron Maybin (minor league deal)

Derek Dietrich (borderline)

Clay Buchholz

Edwin Jackson (minor league deal)

 

Other borderline types I saw on the FA list are:

Dan Jennings

Bud Norris

[KeithStone53151]

Passan posted this article, I specifically looked at item 1...Harper and MM. There's some interesting stuff regarding the 2 agents and overall dynamics of their potential signings.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26002896/the-bryce-manny-stalemate-latest-mlb-free-agency

[wallus]

Passan posted this article, I specifically looked at item 1...Harper and MM. There's some interesting stuff regarding the 2 agents and overall dynamics of their potential signings.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26002896/the-bryce-manny-stalemate-latest-mlb-free-agency

 

The players union should be applying a little pressure on Machado and Harper to sign. They are clearly holding up the market on a lot of those other guys. I think even one of them signing should unleash a barrage of signings.

[KeithStone53151]

Passan posted this article, I specifically looked at item 1...Harper and MM. There's some interesting stuff regarding the 2 agents and overall dynamics of their potential signings.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26002896/the-bryce-manny-stalemate-latest-mlb-free-agency

 

The players union should be applying a little pressure on Machado and Harper to sign. They are clearly holding up the market on a lot of those other guys. I think even one of them signing should unleash a barrage of signings.

 

Well right, the crux of it for anyone that didn't read...one of Harper/MM signing could cause the teams that missed out to increase their offers for the remaining player...so both players are worried they won't maximize value by signing first. Also apparently both agents are still portraying strength in negotiations. I don't think it's at all fair to solely blame the teams or the players. It's not fair to expect teams to basically write a blank check and let Harper or MM fill in whatever $/years they want. That seems to be the expectation of Josh and all other agents/players.

[KeithStone53151]

This is super pointed. I feel like he's basically calling out the other side. That's not a really good way to get a player to sign with you, I bet he's frustrated with the Boras clown show.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is super pointed. I feel like he's basically calling out the other side. That's not a really good way to get a player to sign with you, I bet he's frustrated with the Boras clown show.

 

 

"We have stupid money, but we're only going to blow it on our terms."

[JosephC]

Passan posted this article, I specifically looked at item 1...Harper and MM. There's some interesting stuff regarding the 2 agents and overall dynamics of their potential signings.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26002896/the-bryce-manny-stalemate-latest-mlb-free-agency

 

I thought #2 was just as interesting. All this talk about all these great free agents left. Well, not really.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

 

So by fWAR-

SS - Manny Machado (6.2)

SP - Dallas Keuchel (3.6) - mediocre strikeout numbers pushes his value down in the current MLB climate

RF - Bryce Harper (3.5)

SS - Jose Iglesias (2.5) - nearly all his value comes with the glove, below-average bat with a career .270/.315/.363/.678 slash line

3B - Mike Moustakas (2.4)

SP - Gio Gonzalez (2.0)

SP - Clay Buchholz (1.9) - starting pitcher that has averaged 90 innings over the last four years

RF - Carlos Gonzalez (1.7) - .243/.301/.374/.675 on the road from 2016-2018

LF - Marwin Gonzalez (1.6) - lifetime .264/.318/.419/.737 and that includes the out-of-character 2017 numbers, mediocre glove for most positions other than LF and the bat plays down there

LF - Denard Span (1.5)

RP - Craig Kimbral (1.5)

RF - Jose Bautista (1.0) - way up there in age

 

Only 6 left that posted a WAR of 2+ last year and only 12 left that posted a WAR of 1+ last year.

[stalton]

I seem to remember hearing that the majority of the pitching market last year was waiting on the elite few to sign and then when they finally did, there was not an immediate glut of signings rather it slowly came in after that.

[PilprinBuddha]

Would a Gio signing on a 1 year deal be bad at this point? It just feels like we could use a LH arm that can be a starter or Long reliever.

[NYChez]

Would a Gio signing on a 1 year deal be bad at this point? It just feels like we could use a LH arm that can be a starter or Long reliever.

Gio could fill Suter's role at least until Brent returns.

[long ball]

Would a Gio signing on a 1 year deal be bad at this point? It just feels like we could use a LH arm that can be a starter or Long reliever.

 

If he's available on a 1 year deal I think he still makes sense for the Brewers.

 

I originally thought we was closer to the Morton, Lynn, Sanchez, Happ type free agent signing, but as it goes on he's probably closer to the Harvey, Sabathia, Holland, Cahill end of things.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't want GG even on a minor league deal. I don't want to risk him looking slightly better than mediocre in ST and taking a rotation spot from Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta trio. I believe in our young arms and don't want some mediocre retread getting starts ahead of those guys.

[KeithStone53151]

Passan posted this article, I specifically looked at item 1...Harper and MM. There's some interesting stuff regarding the 2 agents and overall dynamics of their potential signings.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26002896/the-bryce-manny-stalemate-latest-mlb-free-agency

 

I thought #2 was just as interesting. All this talk about all these great free agents left. Well, not really.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

 

So by fWAR-

SS - Manny Machado (6.2)

SP - Dallas Keuchel (3.6) - mediocre strikeout numbers pushes his value down in the current MLB climate

RF - Bryce Harper (3.5)

SS - Jose Iglesias (2.5) - nearly all his value comes with the glove, below-average bat with a career .270/.315/.363/.678 slash line

3B - Mike Moustakas (2.4)

SP - Gio Gonzalez (2.0)

SP - Clay Buchholz (1.9) - starting pitcher that has averaged 90 innings over the last four years

RF - Carlos Gonzalez (1.7) - .243/.301/.374/.675 on the road from 2016-2018

LF - Marwin Gonzalez (1.6) - lifetime .264/.318/.419/.737 and that includes the out-of-character 2017 numbers, mediocre glove for most positions other than LF and the bat plays down there

LF - Denard Span (1.5)

RP - Craig Kimbral (1.5)

RF - Jose Bautista (1.0) - way up there in age

 

Only 6 left that posted a WAR of 2+ last year and only 12 left that posted a WAR of 1+ last year.

 

I find it a bit weird that Iglesias doesn't have a job. Unless he is specifically insisting on a starting SS job, he seems like he'd be an excellent utility guy. I can't imagine him not being a plus defender at 3 infield spots. I also still think Marwin Gonzalez gets a fairly surpringly large contract. It overall sounds like things may be wrapping up for the big 2 shortly.

 

Why has there been such minimal chatter on Kimbrel. I've heard next to nothing on him, and can't think of a single team that's even involved in bidding for him. I know he had a bad month or two last year, but he's still a high end reliever.

[Roderick]

I know not a top free agent - but very surprised that Gerado Parra had to sign a minor league deal. Would have figured he would be a nice fit as a 4th OF for someone.

[pacopete4]

I know not a top free agent - but very surprised that Gerado Parra had to sign a minor league deal. Would have figured he would be a nice fit as a 4th OF for someone.

[JosephC]

Parra just doesn't have enough of a bat to be real attractive as a corner outfielder. Last three years he's slashed .283/.320/.407/.728 while playing all his home games in Colorado. That translates to a 80 OPS+ over those three seasons and last year he had an 80 wRC+. He still plays plus defense in both corner outfield spots but his bat is definitely subpar for those positions. Steamer projects him as a -0.1 WAR player for 2019. I am a bit surprised he had to sign a minor league deal, but if guessing a few months ago I probably would have put him at a 1 year deal at somewhere in the 1.5 to 2 million dollar range.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I know not a top free agent - but very surprised that Gerado Parra had to sign a minor league deal. Would have figured he would be a nice fit as a 4th OF for someone.

 

Not sure why the surprise? I think the bolded kind of go hand in hand. The difference between a bench player on a major league deal, a bench player who came in on a minor league deal, a AAAA player, an older AAA player, a player who heads overseas for a few years, and an unemployed vet is often negligible. Teams are figuring this out and saving the guaranteed dollars for the difference makers.

[brewmann04]

Marvin talking to the twins

[ebmackenzie]

LF - Marwin Gonzalez (1.6) - lifetime .264/.318/.419/.737 and that includes the out-of-character 2017 numbers, mediocre glove for most positions other than LF and the bat plays down there

 

 

 

THIS!!

 

I have long said that Hernan is just another version of Marwin, poor man's version, but not that different. Now that Moose is at 2B we can use Hernan to his strengths and not overexpose him the way that Marwin has been revealed here.

 

Good luck to Marwin, but he should be happy to play ball.

 

PS--I fully acknowledge that Marwin carried HOU when they were missing players the year they won it all.

[adambr2]

LF - Marwin Gonzalez (1.6) - lifetime .264/.318/.419/.737 and that includes the out-of-character 2017 numbers, mediocre glove for most positions other than LF and the bat plays down there

 

 

 

THIS!!

 

I have long said that Hernan is just another version of Marwin, poor man's version, but not that different. Now that Moose is at 2B we can use Hernan to his strengths and not overexpose him the way that Marwin has been revealed here.

 

Good luck to Marwin, but he should be happy to play ball.

 

PS--I fully acknowledge that Marwin carried HOU when they were missing players the year they won it all.

 

That number also includes the out of character numbers from 2012 and 2013.

[JosephC]

If one drops the 2012 and 2013 numbers (bad) and the 2017 numbers (good), and just keep what could be considered a "normal" offensive season from Gonzalez, that accounts for four of the last five seasons and the combined slash line from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 is .262/.314/.412/.726. Last year he was at .247/.324/.409/.733.

[Humans Need Water]

If one drops the 2012 and 2013 numbers (bad) and the 2017 numbers (good), and just keep what could be considered a "normal" offensive season from Gonzalez, that accounts for four of the last five seasons and the combined slash line from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 is .262/.314/.412/.726. Last year he was at .247/.324/.409/.733.

Agree with this perspective. Those 4yrs are what you expect to get from Marwin but his 2017 also shows he possesses the ability to achieve beyond what he's done thus far. Not that it'll happen but it's possible.

 

Whereas Perez doesn't have that ability. The past 3yrs he's slashed 262/294/411/705 (83 wrc+) and that *includes* his 2016. Marwin is definitely better than Perez offensively and even if you remove his 2017 his wrc+ is still 20pts+ higher than Perez.

 

While I was never opposed to targeting Marwin because him and Dubon would have everything covered I'm also hard core against paying him what he wants to be paid because I think he's nothing more than a better Perez. Which is no doubt valuable but not that price-tag valuable, especially when Hiura is up this year and still have the OF in tact next year + Ray. Marwin will literally take Perez's spot as he isn't starting over anyone.

[NYChez]

Kimbrel concerns me for the same reason Jeffress does. They each threw massive amounts of high-leverage innings on short rest deep into October. I expect to see lingering effects.

[Brew crew 92]

Kimbrel concerns me for the same reason Jeffress does. They each threw massive amounts of high-leverage innings on short rest deep into October. I expect to see lingering effects.

 

Kimbrell’s innings in line with previous years. This guy is one of the top closers in the history of baseball. If we could get him for a one or two year deal why not, we have the money. Imagine a back end pen of Kimbrell,Hader and Knebel.with hopefully a healthy Jeffress.

[Point Beer Is Best]

If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?