Zack Greinke?

[reillymcshane]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

 

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

If I'm the Diamondbacks, I wouldn't even counter that offer. I'd take it just "as is" in about 1 nanosecond. Only giving up Smith while not having to eat any of Greinke's salary (unless you want to count the 2.5 million owed to Albers which would be a fair assessment) and getting an immediate MLB arm to replace him in the rotation, I'd take that no problem. This would be a good, solid trade for Arizona.

Yeah, I was looking at this and thinking the same thing. Yerzy, Young, Bickford, Grisham, Felicano - those guys are all filler. Call that a wash.

 

Anderson gets $6.5M - but he's a serviceable back of the rotation arm that can be cut loose in the future if he falters with minimal financial commitments.

 

Albers is $2.5M of nothing

 

Greinke is owned $95.5M over the next three years. It grows to $97.5M if he is traded due to a $2M trade bonus. Some people quote $104.5M, but that's including signing bonus money - which would be paid by the original signing team (the Dbacks). $32.5M of Greinke's salary from 2019-21 is deferred - but we won't worry about that for calculating overall value. I'm guessing it drives down the overall numbers a few million.

 

Anyhow, for ease of calculation - let's say Greinke is owed $95.5M. Albers takes that down to $93M. Greinke's real value is probably more in the 3-year/$60-70M range. That means you're paying around $25M for Pavin Smith.

 

Smith is an interesting asset. The Brewers loved him in 2016 - and very well could have taken him over Hiura if he had been available. But the guy's star has dimmed. He hasn't developed much power, and he hasn't hit as well as expected. At best he's a borderline Top 100 guy - but more like a 150 type guy. That - plus his potential (which is still intriguing) - make him maybe a $10M asset or so.

 

In the end, you're way overpaying for Smith. We'd definitely need more.

 

Perhaps JosephC and his calculating wizardry would come up with a better idea of a deal.

[clancyphile]

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

 

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

If I'm the Diamondbacks, I wouldn't even counter that offer. I'd take it just "as is" in about 1 nanosecond. Only giving up Smith while not having to eat any of Greinke's salary (unless you want to count the 2.5 million owed to Albers which would be a fair assessment) and getting an immediate MLB arm to replace him in the rotation, I'd take that no problem. This would be a good, solid trade for Arizona.

Yeah, I was looking at this and thinking the same thing. Yerzy, Young, Bickford, Grisham, Felicano - those guys are all filler. Call that a wash.

 

Anderson gets $6.5M - but he's a serviceable back of the rotation arm that can be cut loose in the future if he falters with minimal financial commitments.

 

Albers is $2.5M of nothing

 

Greinke is owned $95.5M over the next three years. It grows to $97.5M if he is traded due to a $2M trade bonus. Some people quote $104.5M, but that's including signing bonus money - which would be paid by the original signing team (the Dbacks). $32.5M of Greinke's salary from 2019-21 is deferred - but we won't worry about that for calculating overall value. I'm guessing it drives down the overall numbers a few million.

 

Anyhow, for ease of calculation - let's say Greinke is owed $95.5M. Albers takes that down to $93M. Greinke's real value is probably more in the 3-year/$60-70M range. That means you're paying around $25M for Pavin Smith.

 

Smith is an interesting asset. The Brewers loved him in 2016 - and very well could have taken him over Hiura if he had been available. But the guy's star has dimmed. He hasn't developed much power, and he hasn't hit as well as expected. At best he's a borderline Top 100 guy - but more like a 150 type guy. That - plus his potential (which is still intriguing) - make him maybe a $10M asset or so.

 

In the end, you're way overpaying for Smith. We'd definitely need more.

 

Perhaps JosephC and his calculating wizardry would come up with a better idea of a deal.

 

Yerzy is, IMO, a potential bat-first catcher and a big upgrade over Feliciano. MLB Pipeline has his ETA as 2021. He's also left-handed, so he'd have a good shot at doing pretty well in Miller Park/AmFam Field.

 

Young is a back-end of the rotation starter, but could be better off in the bullpen. Either way, even though he got shelled a bit at Reno, I consider him to have a better shot at contributing in the majors than Bickford.

 

Smith is replacing Trent Grisham. He has good OBP skills, and maybe the stats guys can figure out what is up.

[DHonks]

 

I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/ - but I double-checked.

 

The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each.

 

2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million.

 

2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million.

 

2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million.

 

2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year.

 

 

all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.

[clancyphile]

 

I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/ - but I double-checked.

 

The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each.

 

2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million.

 

2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million.

 

2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million.

 

2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year.

 

 

all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.

 

What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?

[brewmann04]

the guy on twitter must be laughing.

[anglotiger]

the guy on twitter must be laughing.

 

No kidding.

 

This is how far this twitter "joke" went - there was a radio broadcast today from On Deck, and Steve True was sitting in for a segment when David Stearns was being interviewed. True asked him about the "rumor" that the Brewers trying to trade for Grienke. You could tell that there was a smirk on Stearns' face over the radio, just from the tone of his voice. His response was simply that he sees some of the stuff written about what the Brewers are doing and about 40% of it has, I think he put it, "some degree" of truth. Not even that 40% of it is true, just that it had some degree of truth...

 

You've got to love David Stearns. He's not going to give anything away, with regard to personnel moves, with a direct answer - not even to quash the fake rumours.

[DHonks]

 

I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/ - but I double-checked.

 

The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each.

 

2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million.

 

2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million.

 

2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million.

 

2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year.

 

 

all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.

 

What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?

 

I've always known it as the most reliable source for salary info. It's now part of Baseball Prospectus.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/arizona-diamondbacks/

[clancyphile]

all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.

 

What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?

 

I've always known it as the most reliable source for salary info. It's now part of Baseball Prospectus.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/arizona-diamondbacks/

 

OK, thanks.

 

I took a look, and it looks like my guesses were on the money in terms of what was deferred.

 

Based on what I'm seeing at Cots and Sportrac, I don't think Greinke's deal would be a killer for Milwaukee. He'd be closer to the 2017 version of Anderson than the 2018 version, plus the mentoring for Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta...

 

I think it's worth doing, even for the extra $12 million a year. Especially if Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff go from solid MLB rotation assets to borderline #1/#2 starters.

[TURBO]

I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.

[82brewcrew82]

I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.

No one has ever viewed Greinke as the mentor type. No idea where that notion is coming from. If the expectation is that you get Anderson circa 2017 production, then why not just keep Anderson? Isn't it just as likely that he bounces back as Greinke is to reverse a downward trend? No idea what Milwaukee would gain from that trade except all of the risk.

[HiAndTight]

Based on what I'm seeing at Cots and Sportrac, I don't think Greinke's deal would be a killer for Milwaukee. He'd be closer to the 2017 version of Anderson than the 2018 version, plus the mentoring for Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta...

 

I think it's worth doing, even for the extra $12 million a year. Especially if Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff go from solid MLB rotation assets to borderline #1/#2 starters.

 

It's still not just 12 million per year. It's also almost 33 million in years the Brewers ostensibly hope to be competitive also. And I'm not sure how Greinke is going to make Burnes,Peralta and Woodruff aces.

 

I really like Greinke, and if AZ wants to eat 60 million or so, and the Brewers want to give away remaining flexibility and they believe that he can reverse some of last years trends, I'd be on board. But you're making some huge assumptions to justify this and then ignoring others, mainly the money by presenting it at just 12 million year year in added revenue. The 33 million may come in handy when the time comes to try and extend a guy like Hirura or Burnes or someone who's not in our system yet.

 

 

 

Again, lets just keep in mind, aside from the obvious payroll deterrent, Grinke was hit harder last year than just about any year of his career, had better luck and his BABIP was way down(IIRC it was like 30 points below his average while his hard hit pct was around 40 pct, much higher than his normal years) and his velocity was down below 90. And he doesn't exactly have the delicate touch to nurture young pitchers if they start struggling. He's more likely to tell them "you really suck right now" than anything else. Not saying I don't like him, just saying....there are a whole lot more reasons to NOT sign him than there are to sign him.

[HiAndTight]

I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.

No one has ever viewed Greinke as the mentor type. No idea where that notion is coming from. If the expectation is that you get Anderson circa 2017 production, then why not just keep Anderson? Isn't it just as likely that he bounces back as Greinke is to reverse a downward trend? No idea what Milwaukee would gain from that trade except all of the risk.

 

 

No, definitely not in the traditional sense. I could see him helping a guy like Jimmy Nelson who's mentally tough and doesn't question that he belongs in the big leagues. I could see him asking some questions and Greinke answering. But he's not going to take out the young foursome of our young potential starting rotation to dinner(I'm throwing Brown in there) and really get to know them, and then share some of his stories along the way.

 

I don't think he'd be a detriment...mainly because he was here, he wasn't. But it'd take a pitcher with a thick skin and a lot of confidence to work with him. So basically the anti-Manny Parra.

[Invader3K]

Well, still no Greinke, so I don't think there was anything to this "rumor" to begin with.

[brewmann04]

Yes someone again having a big laugh getting us to talk for 5 pages

[DHonks]

Well, still no Greinke, so I don't think there was anything to this "rumor" to begin with.

 

Yes and no. One thing I've learned from hearing/reading comments from Stearns is that many of his deals are planned over many weeks/months.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm sure the Brewers have inquired on Greinke, as they have inquired on most options that may be available to them. I believe they do their due diligence on virtually everyone, and I think that sometimes that process gets 'leaked' some way and spun into something more concrete than it actually is.

[OnTheBlack]

Yes someone again having a big laugh getting us to talk for 5 pages

 

 

All this stuff is rhetorical for the most part. I don't see it as a waste as I enjoy the varying perspectives.