Zack Greinke?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

First tweet was from his buddy saying "We got them to talk about it on the radio, lol"

 

Cmon, there was a Greinke thread already, nothing wrong with talking about a potential trade no matter how unlikely it is. But giving this guy the satisfaction of a whole thread about him is exactly what he wants. At least HH made it sound convincing for a while.

 

Are any of these Brewers Twitter regulars also regular posters here? Once in a while I recognize names and posting style, but for the most part its hard to tell. I believe that all the Twitter fools, if not posters, are lurking constantly. Hi guys!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lock it up. Burn it down. Get rid of this thread. Duped again!

 

I don't think anyone was/is duped. There is a pretty high level of skepticism in fact.

[brewmann04]

Like the previous poster said it got us talking late in Jan as we get closer to pitchers and Catchers reporting.

[OldHeidelberg]

I think Greinke will age just fine and since it is not my money I think 3/70 is a fair price especially if they took Chase as part for the deal. Braun coming off the books would help with year 3. Not sure I would give up a prospect like Brown though but maybe a guy like Supak if they insisted on something to sell it to their fans. That said I really doubt there is anything to this and not sure we would really need to take a risk like this with our young starters moving into the rotation soon. It would definitely brighten our prospects for this season though, we were reportedly interested in Happ and while he is a bit cheaper I think Greinke is better.

[pacopete4]

Lock it up. Burn it down. Get rid of this thread. Duped again!

 

I don't think anyone was/is duped. There is a pretty high level of skepticism in fact.

 

Oh boy. It was a heavy dose of sarcasm my friend.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lock it up. Burn it down. Get rid of this thread. Duped again!

 

I don't think anyone was/is duped. There is a pretty high level of skepticism in fact.

 

Oh boy. It was a heavy dose of sarcasm my friend.

 

Apparently I haven't had enough coffee yet this morning ...

[Outlander]

First tweet was from his buddy saying "We got them to talk about it on the radio, lol"

 

Cmon, there was a Greinke thread already, nothing wrong with talking about a potential trade no matter how unlikely it is. But giving this guy the satisfaction of a whole thread about him is exactly what he wants. At least HH made it sound convincing for a while.

Hid "buddy" is also the guy that runs BrewCrewBall so I'm not sure what that means. If he is just making stuff up makes that site look pretty bad.

[SRB]

I won't believe it until I heard it from @BrewerWorld

[OnTheBlack]

I'm really not sure how I can see this making sense for us. You never know, but sure seems BS to me

 

 

I wouldn't be 100 pct against this if that 35 million was closer to 55 million. I love Greinke, but he's not Greg Maddux and I don't think he's duplicating last years success and low BABIP.

 

Still a very good pitcher, not the guy we traded for the first time and not worth ~23 million per year. I'd have much rather signed another D-back, Corbin if we were going to pay a pitcher that type of money. A power lefty.

[pogokat]

Toby and I tweet pretty frequently. I'm bradjiles on twitter

 

First tweet was from his buddy saying "We got them to talk about it on the radio, lol"

 

Cmon, there was a Greinke thread already, nothing wrong with talking about a potential trade no matter how unlikely it is. But giving this guy the satisfaction of a whole thread about him is exactly what he wants. At least HH made it sound convincing for a while.

 

Are any of these Brewers Twitter regulars also regular posters here? Once in a while I recognize names and posting style, but for the most part its hard to tell. I believe that all the Twitter fools, if not posters, are lurking constantly. Hi guys!

[Warning Track Power]

Count me out on Greinke and his 3 years and $104.5 million remaining on his contract. While the contract alone is not desirable, I do not enjoy his personality or his perspectives on things. Rooting for him would be akin to having had Josh McDaniels as the Packers HC. Tolerable when winning, insufferable when not.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

[clancyphile]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

 

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

[OnTheBlack]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

 

Well I'd be happy if Jeff Bezos would just take 90 pct off everything I ordered from Amazon...but I think just like Mark A might have something to say about adding ANOTHER 34 million dollars to this payroll, Bezos may have a problem with this.

 

Also...I don't think this serves the D-backs. The Brewers weren't looking to give up prospects for someone to just take Braun when were started our rebuild. I think it makes far more sense to not make this trade, but if it DID happen, I think the D-backs would rather eat some money and get something back than actually give away prospects which only delays they're rebuilding. Especially one of their top young prospects in Smith, the guy who's likey slated to take over for Goldschmidt, Yerzy's a catching prospect that has a big upside and Young is an MLB ready lefty.

 

This makes very little sense for either team. I have a pet peeve with people who speak in absolutes, but I'm ALMOST positive this wouldn't happen. This totally hamstrings the Brewers the next 3 years while they have Yelich in his prime and Cain at the end of his from doing anything without dumping salary. And while you'll probably respond by saying Braun's contract will be gone in 2 years, the young guys on the Brewers and their raises through arbitration will negate those savings.

 

Unless the Brewers are going to be pushing their payroll up to the 170 million region...which I find pretty unlikely(about as Likely as the Angels waive Trout after a poor opening month)...this seems totally unrealistic other than on a video game where you don't have to worry about real life finances.

[OnTheBlack]

Count me out on Greinke and his 3 years and $104.5 million remaining on his contract. While the contract alone is not desirable, I do not enjoy his personality or his perspectives on things. Rooting for him would be akin to having had Josh McDaniels as the Packers HC. Tolerable when winning, insufferable when not.

 

 

Well I think virtually everyone is out on the contract as it stands. I believe this is a complete non-starter unless the D-backs want to send at least 40 million along with Greinke....and probably more.

 

As for his personality, I think that's a bit of a cheap shot. I think it's widely accepted that he lands somewhere on the "spectrum" without playing psychologist.

 

That said, I actually find him refreshing. He doesn't suffer fools, says what's on his mind and is a pretty fierce competitor who has evolved from a dominant power pitcher, to a Maddux-esque control pitcher with very good secondary stuff.

 

One thing that has been overlooked a touch is the fact that he's probably not as good as his numbers suggested last year and we should expect something of a regression from him and he seemed to benefit from a bit of good luck.

[SRB]

I'm starting to doubt the credibility of the obnoxious Twitter troll who "broke" this rumor

[brewmann04]

He still said he waiting for the move too

[JosephC]

I'm starting to doubt the credibility of the obnoxious Twitter troll who "broke" this rumor

 

starting?

[brewmann04]

LOL these type of guys that seem to be attention seekers.

[clancyphile]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

 

Well I'd be happy if Jeff Bezos would just take 90 pct off everything I ordered from Amazon...but I think just like Mark A might have something to say about adding ANOTHER 34 million dollars to this payroll, Bezos may have a problem with this.

 

Also...I don't think this serves the D-backs. The Brewers weren't looking to give up prospects for someone to just take Braun when were started our rebuild. I think it makes far more sense to not make this trade, but if it DID happen, I think the D-backs would rather eat some money and get something back than actually give away prospects which only delays they're rebuilding. Especially one of their top young prospects in Smith, the guy who's likey slated to take over for Goldschmidt, Yerzy's a catching prospect that has a big upside and Young is an MLB ready lefty.

 

This makes very little sense for either team. I have a pet peeve with people who speak in absolutes, but I'm ALMOST positive this wouldn't happen. This totally hamstrings the Brewers the next 3 years while they have Yelich in his prime and Cain at the end of his from doing anything without dumping salary. And while you'll probably respond by saying Braun's contract will be gone in 2 years, the young guys on the Brewers and their raises through arbitration will negate those savings.

 

Unless the Brewers are going to be pushing their payroll up to the 170 million region...which I find pretty unlikely(about as Likely as the Angels waive Trout after a poor opening month)...this seems totally unrealistic other than on a video game where you don't have to worry about real life finances.

 

Well, the D-Backs can either fork over money or fork over prospects to get rid of Greinke's contract. I'd rather have the prospects. If the Crew gets top prospects and Greinke's contract, the financial hit is mitigated. But the hit isn't as big as some think.

 

Plus, a bit of Greinke's money ($62.5 million of the original $206 million) is deferred to the 2022-2026 timeframe. That means the Crew is paying about $24 million each of those years.

 

So, the 2019-2021 salary comes to about $25 million a year. A lot, but I proposed dealing Anderson and Albers. Their 2019 salaries come to $9 million. So that is off the board. Anderson also had an $8.5 million team option for 2020 off the books and a $9.5 million team option for 2021 off the books. In 2021, Braun's deal is off the books as well if he doesn't exercise a $15 million mutual option.

 

That takes the net salaries for 2019 and 2020 to $16 million and $16.5 million, respectively. The 2021 salary could be covered by Braun not taking the mutual option and Anderson's 2021 team option.

 

Then, from 2022 to 2026, the Crew gives Greinke what amounts to roughly $6.5 million a year.

 

So, yeah, I'd tell Stearns to take the full contract, and see what prospects he can get in return.

 

It's almost a no-lose scenario.

[brewmann04]

It sound nice but think the guy who posted it on twitter is having an early April fools

[DHonks]

 

 

Plus, a bit of Greinke's money ($62.5 million of the original $206 million) is deferred to the 2022-2026 timeframe. That means the Crew is paying about $24 million each of those years.

 

 

Clancy, I think you're likely mistaken. The Brewers wouldn't logically be on the hook for the first 3 years of the deferred money. Those years are Dbacks responsibility unless they asked us to cover it.

[OnTheBlack]

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

 

Well I'd be happy if Jeff Bezos would just take 90 pct off everything I ordered from Amazon...but I think just like Mark A might have something to say about adding ANOTHER 34 million dollars to this payroll, Bezos may have a problem with this.

 

Also...I don't think this serves the D-backs. The Brewers weren't looking to give up prospects for someone to just take Braun when were started our rebuild. I think it makes far more sense to not make this trade, but if it DID happen, I think the D-backs would rather eat some money and get something back than actually give away prospects which only delays they're rebuilding. Especially one of their top young prospects in Smith, the guy who's likey slated to take over for Goldschmidt, Yerzy's a catching prospect that has a big upside and Young is an MLB ready lefty.

 

This makes very little sense for either team. I have a pet peeve with people who speak in absolutes, but I'm ALMOST positive this wouldn't happen. This totally hamstrings the Brewers the next 3 years while they have Yelich in his prime and Cain at the end of his from doing anything without dumping salary. And while you'll probably respond by saying Braun's contract will be gone in 2 years, the young guys on the Brewers and their raises through arbitration will negate those savings.

 

Unless the Brewers are going to be pushing their payroll up to the 170 million region...which I find pretty unlikely(about as Likely as the Angels waive Trout after a poor opening month)...this seems totally unrealistic other than on a video game where you don't have to worry about real life finances.

 

Well, the D-Backs can either fork over money or fork over prospects to get rid of Greinke's contract. I'd rather have the prospects. If the Crew gets top prospects and Greinke's contract, the financial hit is mitigated. But the hit isn't as big as some think.

 

Plus, a bit of Greinke's money ($62.5 million of the original $206 million) is deferred to the 2022-2026 timeframe. That means the Crew is paying about $24 million each of those years.

 

So, the 2019-2021 salary comes to about $25 million a year. A lot, but I proposed dealing Anderson and Albers. Their 2019 salaries come to $9 million. So that is off the board. Anderson also had an $8.5 million team option for 2020 off the books and a $9.5 million team option for 2021 off the books. In 2021, Braun's deal is off the books as well if he doesn't exercise a $15 million mutual option.

That takes the net salaries for 2019 and 2020 to $16 million and $16.5 million, respectively. The 2021 salary could be covered by Braun not taking the mutual option and Anderson's 2021 team option.

 

Then, from 2022 to 2026, the Crew gives Greinke what amounts to roughly $6.5 million a year.

 

So, yeah, I'd tell Stearns to take the full contract, and see what prospects he can get in return.

 

It's almost a no-lose scenario.

 

 

You didn't even bother reading my post, did you?

 

I literally said,

And while you'll probably respond by saying Braun's contract will be gone in 2 years, the young guys on the Brewers and their raises through arbitration will negate those savings.

 

It's not a "no-lose" scenario, Grienke is 35 years old and was the recipient of good luck last year, his hard hit pct was WAY up from recent seasons.

 

So what happens if Grienke loses another MPH on his fastball, is sitting at ~88 MPH, that hard hit rate either stays the same or even goes up a bit more and his BABIP goes from the .272 it was last year to the ~.300 or so it has been more of his career?

 

Now you're paying 3 years 104 million for a 35-37 year old pitcher on a small market team in the middle of it's window to compete and you don't have the resources to add anyone else over that period of time and likely have to let a couple guys go. That's a potential loss.

 

I do still think Greinke is going to be a good pitcher for a few years, but I can't fathom how you trade for a guy with an AAV of 34.5 per year and conclude that's a "no-lose" scenario.

[clancyphile]

 

 

Plus, a bit of Greinke's money ($62.5 million of the original $206 million) is deferred to the 2022-2026 timeframe. That means the Crew is paying about $24 million each of those years.

 

 

Clancy, I think you're likely mistaken. The Brewers wouldn't logically be on the hook for the first 3 years of the deferred money. Those years are Dbacks responsibility unless they asked us to cover it.

 

I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/ - but I double-checked.

 

The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each.

 

2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million.

 

2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million.

 

2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million.

 

2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year.

 

I am not saying Greinke isn't expensive. But compared to what the Crew would already be spending with arby increases, etc., the deal is not outrageous. Plus, if the Crew can pull off a good holdup in terms of prospects in exchange for taking the entire deal off Arizona's hands... they can mitigate the arby raise hits by dealing Pina/Aguilar, and replacing with Yerzy and Smith.

 

I think the Crew gets no worse than Anderson 2018 with Greinke, but more likely, it's something akin to the Anderson of 2017 for 2019 and 2020.

 

And if the D-Backs don't give up prospects, they'll give up cash. Maybe they just take up all the deferred money.

 

But when you think of the value Greinke will add, not just to the numbers, but also as someone who could be an example for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta... I think it's worth the money. This isn't going to be a Matt Garza type of situation. Greinke seemed to like Milwaukee when he was last here.

[JosephC]

I'm not sure that the contract makes Greinke a match. I will say that his personality always made me think once he lost his velocity or got a big payday that he would just kind of coast or call it a career. His been quite the opposite of that. He's managed to lose velocity on his fastball just about every year but has managed to perfect his pitching craft to the point where if you just looked at the stats and some peripherals you'd have a hard time distinguishing him now from his decade younger self. I think his performance at least should be solid for the next 3 seasons yet.

 

I agree - which is why I have no problem acquiring him.

 

Not only does he become arguably the best starter on the staff, but he may be a good mentor for Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (among others). The Crew's had them to a point where they all won't be super two, and the better they do... the higher the return if they end up being dealt down the road.

 

Besides that... I'd be happy to take his full salary provided the Diamondbacks give the Crew some prospects.

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Matt Albers

C Mario Feliciano

OF Trent Grisham

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke

C Andy Yerzy

LHP Alex Young

1B Pavin Smith

 

If I'm the Diamondbacks, I wouldn't even counter that offer. I'd take it just "as is" in about 1 nanosecond. Only giving up Smith while not having to eat any of Greinke's salary (unless you want to count the 2.5 million owed to Albers which would be a fair assessment) and getting an immediate MLB arm to replace him in the rotation, I'd take that no problem. This would be a good, solid trade for Arizona.