Thames and Anderson?

[Eye Black]

I guess the thing to keep in mind is that is league average among all position players (not just 1B). If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong.

[tmwiese55]

I am a bit surprised his numbers ended up that OK for the 2nd half. We all saw it and he didn't loook good and as if they had figured him out a bit. (plus he started standing 8 ft from the plate for some reason). I know his slug keeps the OPS ok but he was 245/324 second half for avg/obp, that's just not good and leads to the issues of inconsistent O due to the low contact and Ks. You're venturing into the MArk Reynolds world a bit more than we prefer. Again, I think he'll end up in between the two halves and be fine/ok or whatever you want to call it but it's perfectly reasonable to be skeptical.

 

I also ask what average you're putting that against? any player, 1Bs, etc? Either way, if we wanna nitpick adjectives you even said it's slightly above league average. So I'd call that Average, not Good.

 

ETA: Eye black just answered it apparently. Yea that hurts the average argument a bit.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Aguilar carried the offense during the 1st half when the likes of Yelich/Braun/Cain/Thames all missed time to random injuries and the bottom half of the lineup was atrocious. He was in the MVP discussion by the end of June and heading into the AS Break. Him sustaining that level of production wasn't going to happen. His second half was meh, it wasn't awful - I think it was amplified by his position in the batting order moreso than anything - because he could have had just a monster year if he got hot one more stretch in September with Cain and Yelich constantly on base in front of him and Braun getting hot. If he's playing everyday, I'd like to see him in the 5 hole and move Shaw into the cleanup spot.

 

In a perfect world you've got a healthy Thames against righties and a healthy Aguilar against lefties, while they take turns serving as a primary bat off the bench - I'm not sure there are enough roster spaces for that to happen, though

[KeithStone53151]

Aguilar hit .876 vs RHP last year, there is really no need to platoon there. Even in 2017 he had solid numbers. For some reason a lot of people still doubt him, but he's only 29 and I don't see why he wouldn't put up similar numbers again this year.

 

Thames really needs to be traded, there is just no room for him- especially since he plays only one position. Shaw, Braun, Grandal could all play 1B here and there to give Aguilar some days off. The final position player spot needs to be an IF that can play multiple positions.

 

Big guys tend to age poorly, and he had a pretty mediocre 2nd half of 760 OPS. I think he might have worn down a bit, but Aguilar is still one of the guys I think is most likely to regress this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My issue is that other than Gatewood (and that is a big maybe), the Brewers really have no depth in the upper minors at the 1B position to even make Aguilar think about. It seems like that position has sort of been an afterthought in the last few drafts, and the depth has suffered because of it. I know they could always move a player from a different position there (Erceg, Nottingham and Payton Henry are all seemingly bat-first prospects), and McClanahan is still around too, but there's really no one close as a back-up plan. Grandal has experience at 1B, Braun has shown he can play there, and Shaw is very good there if another 3B is acquired. It would just be nice to have a guy knocking down the door at AAA. Maybe Gatewood is that guy?

[Madhawk23]

How about we re-sign Moose to a 1-year deal (if he can't get a multi-year deal from another team), and then we use Shaw over at 2B and 1B this year - or until Hiura is ready to come up and take over 2B. Then, trade Thames in a package to the Yankees for Sonny Gray - or another team that has a SP that might be attractive to us? If Aggie struggles in the 1st half this year, we'd then have a solid backup plan in Shaw to cover that position - or at least platoon with Aggie. Shaw could also get plenty of games over at 2B as well - especially if Hiura isn't quite ready for his call-up next year. This could be a 1-year solution, and then we could always move Shaw back to 3B in 2020.

[TooLiveBrew]

Aguilar hit .876 vs RHP last year, there is really no need to platoon there. Even in 2017 he had solid numbers. For some reason a lot of people still doubt him, but he's only 29 and I don't see why he wouldn't put up similar numbers again this year.

 

Thames really needs to be traded, there is just no room for him- especially since he plays only one position. Shaw, Braun, Grandal could all play 1B here and there to give Aguilar some days off. The final position player spot needs to be an IF that can play multiple positions.

 

I 100% agree with your second paragraph.

 

For the first, it simply because he was not good at all in the second half. So, through the ridiculous first half we were all saying this is likely a fluke and way above waht he can do. Second half happense where he wasn't good and it's then very reasonable to think he's closer to 2nd half than 1st. I'm hoping he dropped a few pounds and of course am fine rolling him out there basically full time again to start the year as I expect him to be in the middle of the two halves last year. But if the first 2-3 months are like the end of last year you then start looking to recude his ABs vs righties a bit and finding improvements somehow. Basically, it's not really likely for him to match his numbers from last year because that 2 month crazy stretch isn't gonna happen again.

 

Fair enough. But he did hit .760 in the 2nd half, it's not like he was horrible. Point taken though, I wouldn't bank on a .900+ season from him. Possible, but would definitely feel better with a backup plan.

For me, it's not that I doubt Aguilar. I just think Thames is good power depth to give Jesús's some days off against his weaker platoon side. Not a platoon, just added rest so Aguilar hopefully doesn't tire as much as it seemed like he did last season in the second half.

[homer]

Just say no to Wade Miley. In the three seasons before getting to Milwaukee, Miley posted a 5.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 4.46 FIP. So what are the chances that Miley "remade" himself in 2018 and the success he had last year is sustainable? His ERA was a sparkling 2.57 but the FIP was 3.59 and the xFIP was 4.30. His K/9 was a lousy 5.6 and the K/BB was under 2. BABIP number was far better than the league average (.269) and the HR/FB ratio was a remarkable 5.2%. Pretty much everything screams that a huge regression is in line. I wouldn't be a bit upset if the Brewers could get him at 1 year, 3 million (think the market would demand more), but no way should Milwaukee give him something like 8 million or a two year deal. The track record just isn't very good.

 

 

Does FIP and xFIP take into account defensive positioning? I feel like some of the "traditional" advanced metrics are now behind the curve in regards to pitching performance.

[tmwiese55]

Yea if Thames is healthy and on the team I'd be for that as well, it only makes sense. That said, if they're planning on using Jesus like they did after his emergence (basically every day player) then Thames should be moved and find a more versatile backup player who can play multiple positions since we have Shaw, Grandal, Braun who can spell 1B here and there. Basically, is it the best use of that money and roster spot if Jesus is going to start 150 games.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea if Thames is healthy and on the team I'd be for that as well, it only makes sense. That said, if they're planning on using Jesus like they did after his emergence (basically every day player) then Thames should be moved and find a more versatile backup player who can play multiple positions since we have Shaw, Grandal, Braun who can spell 1B here and there. Basically, is it the best use of that money and roster spot if Jesus is going to start 150 games.

I definitely get your point. My counterpoint would be the value of having a LH power bat off the bench. Especially if the Brewers continue pulling starters after two trips through the order -- we'll have probably at least one more PH plate appearance per game than teams that leave their SPs in longer.

 

At the end of the day, maybe positional versatility & roster flexibility outweigh the relative luxury of having a Thames button to push for PH opportunities. But if they can keep him, I hope they do (assuming the trade return for him isn't enticing).

[tmwiese55]

That's fair. Yea i think the position flex would win out imo and I'd add to the discussion that with those PH opportunities you mentioend it would preferable to have a flexible guy due double switch situations. But yea that HR power of Thames would be nice

[Madhawk23]

How about we re-sign Moose to a 1-year deal (if he can't get a multi-year deal from another team), and then we use Shaw over at 2B and 1B this year - or until Hiura is ready to come up and take over 2B. Then, trade Thames in a package to the Yankees for Sonny Gray - or another team that has a SP that might be attractive to us? If Aggie struggles in the 1st half this year, we'd then have a solid backup plan in Shaw to cover that position - or at least platoon with Aggie. Shaw could also get plenty of games over at 2B as well - especially if Hiura isn't quite ready for his call-up next year. This could be a 1-year solution, and then we could always move Shaw back to 3B in 2020.

[xisxisxis]

I guess the thing to keep in mind is that is league average among all position players (not just 1B). If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong.

Yep, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Rockies did something wrong last year... Only 1 of those playoff teams won the world series with a below average 1B...

 

I would put money on the fact that most people unhappy with the 2nd half have an observation bias based on the first half... The best first baseman last year had a total wRC+ of 145, Aguilar was 4th in MLB at 134. So for 60% of the year he was the best first baseman in baseball by a large amount and for 40% he was the 17th best. I don't think 17th best is not good at all... I don't think he's going to be 4th best in 2019, but I bet he will be top 10 and maybe top 5 again if he goes back to focusing on hitting his pitch like he did in the first half and not hitting pitchers pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

[Eye Black]

I guess the thing to keep in mind is that is league average among all position players (not just 1B). If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong.

Yep, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Rockies did something wrong last year... Only 1 of those playoff teams won the world series with a below average 1B...

[sarcasm]By gosh, it looks like you've unlocked the newest market inefficiency! Who would have ever imagined trotting Ian Desmond out to first base all season last year was a key to the Rockies success?![/sarcasm]

 

I would argue that in the American League there is slightly less pressure on getting power production from the 1B spot because you can still get that from the DH spot. Having J.D. Martinez to plug in the DH spot allows a lineup to look a lot better without great offensive production from 1B. It also appears it was a historically low year for 1B production in the AL last season.

 

The data below showing the average wRC+ by position from both last year as well as 2000-2018 is somewhat interesting. As you can see, in the National League the average 1B was at a 112 wRC+ last season and 117 wRC+ from 2000-2018.

 

Average wRC+ by position (and league) in 2018:

 

[pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg

P -25 -24 -32

C 84 88 79

1B 105 112 99

2B 93 91 95

3B 102 106 99

SS 95 89 101

LF 102 106 98

CF 96 100 92

RF 106 106 107

DH 112 97 112​[/pre]

 

Average wRC+ by position (and league) from 2000-2018:

 

[pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg

P -13 -13 -21

C 88 89 88

1B 114 117 111

2B 95 96 95

3B 102 103 101

SS 90 88 91

LF 106 109 102

CF 99 100 99

RF 109 109 109

DH 106 93 107​[/pre]

[tmwiese55]

We shouldn't have signed Grandal because the Sawx had a bad C and still won. I also don't know why we got Yelich to play RF when the Cubs won the WS with Hayward who can't hit. But then again, why did the Sox bother getting Chris Sale when the Royals won without an ace P

[xisxisxis]

If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong........

...

...

I would argue that in the American League there is slightly less pressure on getting power production from the 1B spot because you can still get that from the DH spot.

 

Oh, so teams are built of more players than just 1B.... Wow, so I guess we judge them based on 1B and DH... uh, oh there's no DH in the NL except for away inter-league games... so I guess we should judge whether a GM/team is doing something wrong based on maybe 1B and LF in the NL? or should we do 1B and 3B?... That seems so arbitrary... oh, I don't know, maybe we should use the entire roster? how about that?

[Eye Black]

If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong........

...

...

I would argue that in the American League there is slightly less pressure on getting power production from the 1B spot because you can still get that from the DH spot.

 

Oh, so teams are built of more players than just 1B.... Wow, so I guess we judge them based on 1B and DH... uh, oh there's no DH in the NL except for away inter-league games... so I guess we should judge whether a GM/team is doing something wrong based on maybe 1B and LF in the NL? or should we do 1B and 3B?... That seems so arbitrary... oh, I don't know, maybe we should use the entire roster? how about that?

I honestly have no idea what point you are trying to make at this point, so I am not really sure where to go from here.

 

You stated that a 101 wRC+ from a first baseman was "GOOD". I was merely attempting to point out that having a league average wRC+ from the 1B spot isn't exactly ideal since the bar is higher for the 1B position. The average wRC+ for a major league first baseman over the past two decades is 114, not 100.

 

If you believe otherwise, let's just agree to disagree.

 

Ironically, I agree that Aguilar is going to be a perfectly fine 1B this season. Have a nice day.

[xisxisxis]

You stated that a 101 wRC+ from a first baseman was "GOOD".

I was responding to someone who said that his 2nd half (where the 101 wRC+ came from) was "not good at all". I disagree with that characterization and others that claim his 2nd half was 'crap' or 'not good'. @ 101 wRC+ it's below average for a 1B and average for an overall hitter. (I also disagree with going back to 2000 for overall numbers as there has been a decline in batting performance league-wide over the last 5-8 years - roughly from 2012).

 

I was merely attempting to point out that having a league average wRC+ from the 1B spot isn't exactly ideal since the bar is higher for the 1B position.

You also stated "If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong". I disagree with that, as the entire roster matters, not just 1 position when you are evaluating whether a contender did something wrong. A team can easily win a World Series having 1 position be the worst in baseball. The Brewers had the 27th ranked production from SS and 2nd base production near the bottom of the entire league (before Shaw moved over) and they still won 96 games and were 1 game from a world series. You might be aware of that, but the way you posted you were making judgements based simply on 1 position, which I believe is wrong.

[Lathund]

(I also disagree with going back to 2000 for overall numbers as there has been a decline in batting performance league-wide over the last 5-8 years - roughly from 2012).

 

That's exactly the reason you'd use a stat like wRC+ or OPS+ instead of raw OPS, because it takes that into account.

[Eye Black]

xisxisxis - Thanks for providing the additional clarification. Maybe I tried to get too cute with my wording regarding the "contending team" comment. I certainly wasn't trying to convey that it would sink a team to have that type of production from their first baseman, just that it isn't ideal. However, I can see how my comment may have come across that way.

 

At one point last off-season I took a closer look at the roster makeup of all teams to make the World Series (both AL and NL) over the past ten years and you are correct, in every instance the teams had at least one position performing at or below league average offensively for the season. The make-up of the entire roster certainly does matter far more than who is playing a specific position.

[xisxisxis]

(I also disagree with going back to 2000 for overall numbers as there has been a decline in batting performance league-wide over the last 5-8 years - roughly from 2012).

 

That's exactly the reason you'd use a stat like wRC+ or OPS+ instead of raw OPS, because it takes that into account.

Yes. My concern is that I don't think the changes the last few years that are leading to overall OPS declines are effecting all players equally (is the average at the same place now as it was in 2000 with respect to the overall player pool - or are the distributions of above average and below average the same now in 2018 as it was then in 2000-2010). I very well could be wrong in that hypothesis as I haven't looked carefully at the data.

[coolhandluke121]

For some reason a lot of people still doubt him,

 

It's not "for some reason". It's for very obvious reasons. He looked awful in the second half last year and has actually been awful for most of his professional career. There's no reason to assume his first half is indicative of the real Aguilar. And a guy with his training habits and conditioning could be a strong early decline candidate. 29 is already past prime age for the average player.

[OldHeidelberg]

For some reason a lot of people still doubt him,

 

It's not "for some reason". It's for very obvious reasons. He looked awful in the second half last year and has actually been awful for most of his professional career. There's no reason to assume his first half is indicative of the real Aguilar. And a guy with his training habits and conditioning could be a strong early decline candidate. 29 is already past prime age for the average player.

 

By my eye test late in the year and in the postseason he was pretty awful, I hated to see him come up in key spots with guys on base. But I just checked before posting and see he had an .821 OPS with a dinger and 3 doubles in the Dodger series, better than at least a couple of other notable Brewers, sort of like his whole second half he didn't fall off a cliff as we have seen other players who have had a couple of big months. I agree with others he needs to keep himself in better condition.

 

Unless they already know Nelson is a long shot I don't see how we don't move Anderson or Davies if we make a Miley type move, Anderson and his salary seems like the easy top choice there. Having 7-8 starters has served us well the last couple of years but those 2 need to be starters and are blocking our young guys who I think we need to develop. We can wait to see how thing shake out before trading one but Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta should all be given a shot in ST. I do agree we need the lefty though.

[long ball]

I guess the thing to keep in mind is that is league average among all position players (not just 1B). If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong.

Yep, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Rockies did something wrong last year... Only 1 of those playoff teams won the world series with a below average 1B...

[sarcasm]By gosh, it looks like you've unlocked the newest market inefficiency! Who would have ever imagined trotting Ian Desmond out to first base all season last year was a key to the Rockies success?![/sarcasm]

 

​

 

 

I know that's sarcasm, but it actually is sorta reflective of how smart teams value first base. Most of the playoff teams didn't have much invested in the first base position. It makes sense because those players are pretty freely available in the current market.

[yoshii8]

Thames definitely wasn't the same player at the end of last season, but I've seen very few players who can carry an entire offense like him with some of his hot streaks.

 

I think he is a valuable guy to keep around for 1b insurance, as a backup LF and PH. He also seems like a huge fan favorite and great clubhouse guy.

 

However, if they can get a decent return for him, I totally understand the reason he would be traded.