Dallas Keuchel

[brewmann04]

I really hope Mark and Scott can get a deal done

[JosephC]

The crazy thing with all of this is - have there been any substantive reports on which teams might be in on Keuchel? I know there was that Braves blogger guy 3-4 weeks who came out and said that the Braves and Brewers were two teams in, but I don't think we've heard anything more credible than that, have we? Are the Phillies waiting to get a deal done with Harper before they turn their attention to Keuchel/Kimbrel, or what's the market for Keuchel right now? I just find it very odd that we are getting close to March now, and there's hardly been any rumors out there on teams potentially interested in this guy.

 

I don't think there has been any news about Keuchel for awhile now. Last thing was that, at the beginning of the off-season, Boras was looking for a 6 year deal in the 150-180 million dollar range. It sounded like Boras had backed off that demand a little bit but the asking price is still really high. It's like Boras looks at that Cy Young award from three years ago, and looked at the Patrick Corbin contract, and views Keuchel as a pitcher that all teams would value as a true ace. It's almost like Boras has just ignored the last three years on Keuchel's stat sheet.

[reillymcshane]

I'm betting Keuchel is waiting until Harper signs. He's hoping a team such as Philly misses on Harper, and decides to chase him with a nice offer. Once Harper is off the board, Keuchel is the last top free agent other than Kimbrel. I do believe that Philadelphia is the wild card here, as they want impact players and have the money to spend - but only if Harper signs elsewhere. I don't see the other teams going after Harper (LA, SF -- even SD or ChiSox) as being super motivated to giving Keuchel a big contract. That leaves Philly as his best hope.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm betting Keuchel is waiting until Harper signs. He's hoping a team such as Philly misses on Harper, and decides to chase him with a nice offer. Once Harper is off the board, Keuchel is the last top free agent other than Kimbrel. I do believe that Philadelphia is the wild card here, as they want impact players and have the money to spend - but only if Harper signs elsewhere. I don't see the other teams going after Harper (LA, SF -- even SD or ChiSox) as being super motivated to giving Keuchel a big contract. That leaves Philly as his best hope.

 

A lot that makes sense. I can just see Boras thought process, thinking he can get the Phillies to pay $25+ million per year for Keuchel if they lose out on Harper since they clearly had money earmarked for Harper. I imagine the Phillies would probably try to jump in and get Keuchel if they missed on Harper, but I can't imagine Keuchel getting anywhere close to that insane reported asking price of 6/150-180.

[bill hAll Star]

I understand the Boras failure hubris in here but other than the unexpected bottom falling out stuff to Moustakas and Greg Holland have all gotten good contracts. The 2018 offseason was not really expected for those guys so it cost them $5-10 million by not taking the QO or maybe a low-ish ball offer.

 

He can be a douche and ask for 5 years/$500 million for Keuchel but Keuchel will probably get a solid deal for what he's worth in the end.

 

Most of these guys like Mous probably know that they're working with the ****** negotiator that plays hardball and while he may squeeze every ounce out of a team into a long-term deal, they are risking it and could have what happened to Moustakas happen to them.

[reillymcshane]

I think for Keuchel the hope is that he can squeeze one extra year and maybe an extra million or two out of someone.

 

At age 31, this is likely his last chance at a big pay day. If teams like the Brewers are floating a 3-year deal in the $15-18M range, I'm betting he wants Philadelphia to top that with an extra year and/or maybe a more cash. This is his big payday and he's potentially looking at an extra $20M if Philly gets involved.

[Warning Track Power]

I want the Brewers to stay far, far away. Roll with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta...

 

Cobb, Lynn and Holland from last season have scared me off signing Keuchel this far into spring.

[reillymcshane]

Whelp, Harper to Phillies probably means they won't add Keuchel (at least, that's what I've read).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With Harper going to the Phillies, do they also fork out money for Keuchel? Or will one of the other teams in on Harper (Giants, Dodgers, White Sox) go for Keuchel instead?

 

Or ... do the Brewers swoop in?

[OldHeidelberg]

Well now the Harper signed with the Phillies I would think Keuchel signs quickly. Maybe that helps the Brewers chances but Phillies were rumored to still want him even if they get Harper, not sure I am thrilled at the prospect of getting Keuchel but the team does seem to like having a LH in the rotation and he is a guy who can stabilize things while the young guys are brought along.

[reillymcshane]

Keuchel is a quality left-handed pitcher. He would be a nice addition to our staff. If we sign him - great - if not, so be it.

[Warning Track Power]

With Harper going to the Phillies, do they also fork out money for Keuchel? Or will one of the other teams in on Harper (Giants, Dodgers, White Sox) go for Keuchel instead?

 

Or ... do the Brewers swoop in?

Gotta be the Braves. Especially with news out of their camp that Foltynewicz, Gausman and Gohara are dealing with injuries, as well as the NL East getting unbelievably better this offseason. The Braves may be the fourth best team right now. They probably need to sign Keuchel AND Kimbrel to get back on par with the Nationals and Phillies.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't rule out the Padres.

[KeithStone53151]

Don't rule out the Padres.

 

This makes a lot of sense for me too. One thing worth noting is their farm system is insane, and most of the insanity is pitching related. Signing Keuchel likely blocks guys at some point, but I suppose that's a good problem to have. Also you have to figure Keuchel will play up in a big stadium and with a good defensive infield. Tatis and Machado at SS/3b with Hosmer at 1b...that's a great start to an elite IF defense.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't rule out the Padres.

 

This makes a lot of sense for me too. One thing worth noting is their farm system is insane, and most of the insanity is pitching related. Signing Keuchel likely blocks guys at some point, but I suppose that's a good problem to have. Also you have to figure Keuchel will play up in a big stadium and with a good defensive infield. Tatis and Machado at SS/3b with Hosmer at 1b...that's a great start to an elite IF defense.

 

My thoughts exactly. Heck, he could be in the running for CY pitching in that park. And never, ever worry about blocking someone- especially when it comes to pitching. 12-13 pitching spots available, plus Keuchel could be traded in a couple years, trade a couple prospects for another big name at some point- so many options.

 

As Walter White once said "No more half-measures." They got Machado, Hosmer....why not get a SP who's just sitting out there. Of course, same could be said of the Brewers I guess.

[brewmann04]

Couldn't we trade the padres Chase lol

[Brew crew 92]

I want the Brewers to stay far, far away. Roll with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta...

 

Cobb, Lynn and Holland from last season have scared me off signing Keuchel this far into spring.

 

+1

 

Save the $ for the trade deadline

[adambr2]

Harper's AAV to me isn't great news for Kuechel, who surely can't make a case for being worth 25M a year if Harper is worth 25M a year.

 

At first I was thinking something around Arrieta's 3/75 from around this time last year. Now I'm thinking closer to 3/54.

[JosephC]

Cots puts Harper's tax charge at 11.538 million on their spreadsheet, but it's a 30 million dollar payout to Harper this year (10 million salary + 20 million signing bonus). The Phillies have run payroll well past 170 million in the past, but I seem to remember some comments from the ownership saying that really wasn't sustainable. I'd guess in 2019 they'd probably want to run a pre-benefits payroll of about 170 million. Again, that's just a complete guess based on some historical information. When adding up the amount of dollars that Philadelphia will pay the highest paid 25 players for this year, the total is 156.263 million, 13.737 million under what I guess would be the approximate limit. I think there is still enough money there for them to add Keuchel, but it's starting to get pretty tight for them.

[brewmann04]

I think we should add him now then we don't have to worry about pitching st the deadline

[Eye Black]

Just for fun each LHP’s 2018 stats “per 9 innings”...

 

Dallas Keuchel: 9.3 H/9; 0.8 HR/9; 2.6 BB/9; 6.7 K/9

 

Brent Suter: 9.1 H/9; 1.6 HR/9; 1.7 BB/9; 7.5 K/9

[AKCheesehead]

EB is that Clancybait I smell?

 

In seriousness there’s no comparison here. I wish Suter hadn’t gotten hurt because I think the left handedness is the crux of the clamor.

 

If I were to prognosticate, my feeling on the matter is that Keuchel will somewhat outperform who pitches in his stead the next 1 maybe 2 years for Milwaukee. Probably.

 

If he becomes a Brewer I’ll be surprised and a bit disappointed but will hope to be wrong of course. My feeling is that of Peralta, Burnes and Woodruff I think 2 or more of them will put up more war than Keuchel over the next 2-3 years. He’s been very good but I like our guys more with consideration for youth, cost and potential.

[Eye Black]

EB is that Clancybait I smell?

No, I think Keuchel is better than Suter, I was just surprised how well Suter matched up on some of those stats last season. Keuchel did throw twice as many innings as Suter last season, so it isn’t exactly an apples to apples comparison.

 

I get the sense the front office prefers having a southpaw in the rotation, especially since they seemingly value showing varying looks to hitters. I won’t do cartwheels if they add Keuchel, but I do think it will be an overall upgrade to the rotation for the near future.

[JosephC]

Just for fun each LHP’s 2018 stats “per 9 innings”...

 

Dallas Keuchel: 9.3 H/9; 0.8 HR/9; 2.6 BB/9; 6.7 K/9

 

Brent Suter: 9.1 H/9; 1.6 HR/9; 1.7 BB/9; 7.5 K/9

 

And this is precisely why it's pretty reasonable to think that Keuchel might have to settle for less than 1/2 of what he was seeking at the beginning of the off-season. The run prevention isn't even close between the two. 2018: Keuchel = 3.74 ERA, 3.69 FIP, Suter = 4.44 ERA, 4.49 FIP. But all those peripherals are what build the overall "metric model" and I'm guessing the models of the majority of teams say that Keuchel might be a decent #2 but probably will be pitching at a #3 level in the very near future. The recent ERA, FIP, xFIP are good but not close to being elite, and beyond that, most of the numbers tend to be really mediocre.

 

Again, I like Keuchel and think he's a nice fit for Miller Park. But if I was running a team that pitched in the big park where the home run ball wasn't that big of a factor, then Keuchel really wouldn't be all that attractive.

[adambr2]

Just for fun each LHP’s 2018 stats “per 9 innings”...

 

Dallas Keuchel: 9.3 H/9; 0.8 HR/9; 2.6 BB/9; 6.7 K/9

 

Brent Suter: 9.1 H/9; 1.6 HR/9; 1.7 BB/9; 7.5 K/9

 

That K/9 number is scary if you're paying Kuechel top dollar.

 

K's aren't the end-all, but I'm not paying 20M a year to a player who couldn't out-K Brent Suter.