Dallas Keuchel

[Warning Track Power]

Waiting to see if Philly misses on Machado and Harper, they might pivot to Keuchel then. Sounds like it would be smart for Keuchel to wait a little while longer.

This. 100% this. Keuchel will be a Phillie if they don’t land either. More than likely I think the Phillies are waiting to see if they can sign one or both. If they only get one, I see them pivoting to Keuchel or maybe Kimbrel. Either way, Keuchel signs after both Harper and Machado are signed.

[brewmann04]

IMO if the Brewers get Keuchel they are definite back in the lead to win the NL Central.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It still bothers me that the Braves are "in" on Keuchel. Especially considering how some talking heads makes that team's handful of pitching prospects seem almost god-like. The majority of those top guys are MLB-ready as well.

[PlayerHader]

It still bothers me that the Braves are "in" on Keuchel. Especially considering how some talking heads makes that team's handful of pitching prospects seem almost god-like. The majority of those top guys are MLB-ready as well.

 

So what bothers you?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It still bothers me that the Braves are "in" on Keuchel. Especially considering how some talking heads makes that team's handful of pitching prospects seem almost god-like. The majority of those top guys are MLB-ready as well.

 

So what bothers you?

 

If a bunch of these guys are so great and ML ready, it would stand to reason that the Braves would have no need for Keuchel. Them being in on Keuchel, therefore tells me that perhaps the young studs that are already being appointed aces by media and fans are possibly instead overrated.

[trwi7]

It still bothers me that the Braves are "in" on Keuchel. Especially considering how some talking heads makes that team's handful of pitching prospects seem almost god-like. The majority of those top guys are MLB-ready as well.

 

So what bothers you?

 

If a bunch of these guys are so great and ML ready, it would stand to reason that the Braves would have no need for Keuchel. Them being in on Keuchel, therefore tells me that perhaps the young studs that are already being appointed aces by media and fans are possibly instead overrated.

 

Well I'll take a couple of their guys if they sign Keuchel.

[bill hAll Star]

Almost like a team that signed and traded for All Star outfielders with a young, breakout player bumped from his spot and also routinely signs veteran reclamation projects for their pitching rotation with lots of [less hyped] talent waiting in the minors.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well I'll take a couple of their guys if they sign Keuchel.

 

I agree. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff don't even come close to touching where a few of their guys are ranked. Although I guess if they sign Keuchel, it would free them up to perhaps trade from their mountain of perceived high-end prospects to shore up a different spot on their roster. That organization is known for hugging the heck out of its prospects, though, so I don't see that happening.

[bill hAll Star]

Well I'll take a couple of their guys if they sign Keuchel.

 

I agree. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff don't even come close to touching where a few of their guys are ranked. Although I guess if they sign Keuchel, it would free them up to perhaps trade from their mountain of perceived high-end prospects to shore up a different spot on their roster. That organization is known for hugging the heck out of its prospects, though, so I don't see that happening.

 

Folty, Newcomb, and Gausman are all guys that are probably the modern, "count on them for 4 or 5 and be happy if they go deeper than that" types. All of those guys have issues with early game pitch count if they're not on and can get up to 100 pitches by the 4th.

 

So why not have Toussaint, Soroka, Wright, Gohara, and Anderson all available to fill in via injury or piggyback those guys as a lockdown multi-inning reliever?

 

Teheran could be gone after this year, Gausman would be after next year, and they still have at least one spot open to be filled by that list. So just have those guys fill in then.

 

You've also got injuries or things like Teheran underperforming again and being yanked from a rotation spot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well I'll take a couple of their guys if they sign Keuchel.

 

I agree. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff don't even come close to touching where a few of their guys are ranked. Although I guess if they sign Keuchel, it would free them up to perhaps trade from their mountain of perceived high-end prospects to shore up a different spot on their roster. That organization is known for hugging the heck out of its prospects, though, so I don't see that happening.

 

Folty, Newcomb, and Gausman are all guys that are probably the modern, "count on them for 4 or 5 and be happy if they go deeper than that" types. All of those guys have issues with early game pitch count if they're not on and can get up to 100 pitches by the 4th.

 

So why not have Toussaint, Soroka, Wright, Gohara, and Anderson all available to fill in via injury or piggyback those guys as a lockdown multi-inning reliever?

 

Teheran could be gone after this year, Gausman would be after next year, and they still have at least one spot open to be filled by that list. So just have those guys fill in then.

 

You've also got injuries or things like Teheran underperforming again and being yanked from a rotation spot.

 

Dang you and your logic LOL!

 

Yeah, it makes sense. But that isn't going to stop me from being a homer fan and saying that it would be a puzzling use of resources. If it is truly down to the Brewers and Braves for Keuchel's services (who knows if that is true or not), it doesn't take much of an argument to say that Keuchel is a better fit for the Brewers' roster both now and in the future as currently constructed. Of course, the only ones who know how each of these guys is truly valued are the teams themselves.

[Warning Track Power]

I have come to realize that 2019 Dallas Keuchel is 2018 Alex Cobb.

 

I have come around to the fact that I would rather see Woodruff-Peralta-Burnes (with Davies and Anderson as potential fall back options) in the rotation rather than spending the $15-$20 million to acquire Keuchel. If the $15-$20 million is burning a hole in Attanasio's pocket, go sign Craig Kimbrel and shorten the game to 5 innings. Imagine a back end of Jeffress in the 6th, Hader in the 7th, Knebel in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. Wow.

[brewmann04]

Warning Track i like your thought process in regards to adding Kimbrel but i still think adding Dallas will move the rotation in a big way IMO.I also think the brewers are looking to possible move either Chase or Zack.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I really want Keuchel and think him on a deal around what Cobb or Arrieta got last year makes a lot of sense.

[Mr Southpaw]

Tick tock, tick tock.

 

Three years/$51 tops. I don't think that will cut it for Borass.

[Madhawk23]

With what happened to all of those pitchers that signed late into ST last year, you would think that Keuchel would need to sign really soon here - or risk having his value go down even further. With every passing day now, he's going to fall further and further behind schedule now that P's and C's have reported to camp.

 

Is he just waiting it out until Harper and MM sign somewhere to see if he can get more money if teams lose out on one of those two guys and throw more money at him?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With what happened to all of those pitchers that signed late into ST last year, you would think that Keuchel would need to sign really soon here - or risk having his value go down even further. With every passing day now, he's going to fall further and further behind schedule now that P's and C's have reported to camp.

 

Is he just waiting it out until Harper and MM sign somewhere to see if he can get more money if teams lose out on one of those two guys and throw more money at him?

 

Arrieta was fine last year. I think Keuchel is closer to that level then he is Cobb or Lynn. And I readily admit that I was one of the biggest supporters of signing Cobb last year. I still think he would have been a good sign, and likely much better playing for the Brewers than for the horrible Orioles.

[Madhawk23]

With what happened to all of those pitchers that signed late into ST last year, you would think that Keuchel would need to sign really soon here - or risk having his value go down even further. With every passing day now, he's going to fall further and further behind schedule now that P's and C's have reported to camp.

 

Is he just waiting it out until Harper and MM sign somewhere to see if he can get more money if teams lose out on one of those two guys and throw more money at him?

 

Arrieta was fine last year. I think Keuchel is closer to that level then he is Cobb or Lynn. And I readily admit that I was one of the biggest supporters of signing Cobb last year. I still think he would have been a good sign, and likely much better playing for the Brewers than for the horrible Orioles.

 

While Arrieta was OK last year, he still put up the worst season he's had as a pro since 2013 - when he was still with the Orioles. Now, maybe that just had more to do with him getting older than it did with him signing late into ST - but I still think you at least need to take that into consideration when evaluating his season last year. Hopefully Keuchel is doing everything he can to keep things on schedule as if he were in a camp right now, so that he's ready to hit the ground running when he does sign - with whatever that team might be.

[long ball]

I have come to realize that 2019 Dallas Keuchel is 2018 Alex Cobb.

 

I have come around to the fact that I would rather see Woodruff-Peralta-Burnes (with Davies and Anderson as potential fall back options) in the rotation rather than spending the $15-$20 million to acquire Keuchel. If the $15-$20 million is burning a hole in Attanasio's pocket, go sign Craig Kimbrel and shorten the game to 5 innings. Imagine a back end of Jeffress in the 6th, Hader in the 7th, Knebel in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. Wow.

 

I would love it if the Brewers signed Kimbrel and would also prefer him to Keuchel. I can't remember if I posted this here or not, but I posted this on another brewers forum so I'll recycle it here:

 

This is highly unlikely to actually happen, but I was kinda kicking around the idea of the Brewers signing kimbrel. Especially if he ends up somewhere in that 4 year $60mm range.

 

Kimbrel is one of the truly elite elite relievers in baseball and has been for almost a decade. He’s still young and is probably the best bet among the still available elite relievers to stay elite for the duration of the deal (I’m thinking of Ottavino and Britton here). That makes the slightly higher AAV and contract length palatable.

 

Kimbrel is the only elite level player at their respective position left of the 2nd tier free agent and compared to the other players in that group is most likely to be valuable through the entirety of the contract. (I’m thinking of Keuchel, Grandal, Pollock here).

 

To address the WAR accumulation argument against spending on an elite reliever. I know fangraphs (and probably BRef and BPro) adds a leverage component to their WAR stat for relievers, but I’m not sold that it accurately reflects true impact relievers have on winning actual games. Additionally The replacement level used for relievers is a more effective player than a replacement level starting pitcher so with the brewers “blurring the lines between starter and reliever” that adjustment becomes less applicable.

 

How the Brewers adding an elite reliever helps: (Keep in mind this is a mostly anecdotal argument). The Brewers almost exclusively used Hader, JJ, and Knebel in games they were tied or leading in 2018. Meaning they accumulated almost all of their value in high leverage innings and weren’t racking up scoreless innings in non competitive games like a starter does or a batter does. They’re highly efficient in the sense that all of their value comes in winning close games. Adding kimbrel could mean the Brewers are able to deploy Knebel and or JJ in a multi inning role more often or even in games where the Brewers are within 1 or maybe 2 runs later in games. Lastly it also covers for the loss of Soria, possible regression from other relievers, and maybe losing Woodruff/Burnes to the rotation.

[brewmann04]

Relievers are risky and can fall off the cliff very quickly. I am sorry but think Dallas addition would do wonders for this staff.

[phnxcrew]

for the love of all that is good and holy sign this guy. You're a legit World Series contender then.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

for the love of all that is good and holy sign this guy. You're a legit World Series contender then.

 

I'd love to have Keuchel heading up this rotation, but this team is a legit World Series contender as it stands. Keuchel would be icing on the cake.

[PeaveyFury]

Agreed with Joey. This is a move that would truly be all-in.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I'm still a believer that they have a finite amount of resources in terms of payroll that is not strongly correlated to the increase in franchise value over the past 10 years.

 

That being said:

 

[bill hAll Star]

We'd be "all-in" but there would probably be 6-7 equally dangerous teams in the NL.

 

Braves, Phillies, Cards, Dodgers and probably 2 or 3 from this list: Rockies, Cubs, Reds, Mets, Nationals.

 

I wouldn't be complaining, just saying that it's going to be a bloodbath. We could sign Keuchel and have one of our best teams ever and be stuck in a road Wild Card game.

 

* Note - I know people will quibble with my list. If you go by Vegas, the Nats are actually one of the more sure things and the Braves may not be so much.

[3and2Fastball]

Keuchel doesn't come without risk. He's 31 years old and has only been really good every other year. I somewhat think of him as a left handed version of Chacin, however the bigger name and Cy Young adds to his price in ways that Chacin didn't. Because I don't expect Keuchel to be a whole heckuva lot better than Chacin, I would hope we don't overpay for him.

 

I think we have our ace ready to roll in Corbin Burnes.