Dallas Keuchel

[And That]

Log jams. Create them everywhere.

 

Sure. But we do have a budget and what is the best way to spend that money.

True, though I don't think anyone has a solid idea of what the Brewers' budget actually is. Some estimates had the Grandal signing putting the Brewers way over budget, and if the offer for Keuchel is real that would blow up a lot of other budget estimates. The Brewers have a lot of money they could spend, it's just a matter of a willingness by ownership to spend it. Stearns' best selling point in spending more money is probably to make it a value proposition. If signing Keuchel and Miley both turn out to be great values, it's possible ownership would approve signing both.

[clancyphile]

I believe it is actually impossible to have too much starting pitching. No team has ever finished a season saying to themselves, "man we overestimated how much pitching we'd need."

 

I'd argue that if you get to a point where you have to DFA players and expose them to waivers, you had too much.

[long ball]

I'm torn on Keuchel. His actual RA/9 fluctuates year to year based mostly on babip which is somewhat to be expected when so many balls are hit in play, especially on the ground. FIP has been very consistent the past 3 years and DRA- has been mostly consistent as well for the past 3 years. He's a good starter and would probably be the Brewers best starter in 2019 based on FIP/DRA, but the fluctuations in RA/9 do scare me a little.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I believe it is actually impossible to have too much starting pitching. No team has ever finished a season saying to themselves, "man we overestimated how much pitching we'd need."

 

I'd argue that if you get to a point where you have to DFA players and expose them to waivers, you had too much.

 

That means every team has too much pitching then. Because every team DFA's players and exposes them to waivers. The Brewers have at least 5 players on the 40-man that can probably be safely dropped without too much harm. Perhaps guys like Saladino or Wilkerson would get claimed ... but I think the chances are just as good that they'd make it through. I doubt there are many teams out there that would hand Suter a 40-man spot right now knowing he's out till at least August. Those end spots on the 40-man are continuously rolling over. Not to mention that the Brewers have a few obvious trade candidates as well in Thames and Houser for sure, and possibly Davies and Anderson.

[pacopete4]

Log jams. Create them everywhere.

 

Sure. But we do have a budget and what is the best way to spend that money. I would rather save some to have if we need to trade for a middle IF in case Huira isnt ready or Arcia struggles. Both Miley and Keuchel will get multi-year deals and I want some of that money for a catcher again next year too.

 

I wouldnt be sad to get both just dont know if that is the best way to spend our limited resources

 

If we got both pitchers and we were in the mix for the playoffs, they’d find a way to upgrade positions in July and August if they needed to. I just want as many good players as we can possible put on the 40-man roster.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Log jams. Create them everywhere.

 

Sure. But we do have a budget and what is the best way to spend that money. I would rather save some to have if we need to trade for a middle IF in case Huira isnt ready or Arcia struggles. Both Miley and Keuchel will get multi-year deals and I want some of that money for a catcher again next year too.

 

I wouldnt be sad to get both just dont know if that is the best way to spend our limited resources

 

This team has had big budgets (comparatively speaking) before, and it has never stopped them from being aggressive at the trade deadline. If Attanasio has proved anything in his time as owner, it's that he wants to win first and foremost. If they have a hole that needs filling, and the right guy is there to fill it, they aren't going to let 2 months of salary stand in the way.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm torn on Keuchel. His actual RA/9 fluctuates year to year based mostly on babip which is somewhat to be expected when so many balls are hit in play, especially on the ground.

 

Well then I guess its a good thing the Brewers excel at placing their defenders where the ball is put in play.

[Eye Black]

I believe it is actually impossible to have too much starting pitching. No team has ever finished a season saying to themselves, "man we overestimated how much pitching we'd need."

I agree, I think sometimes in the offseason we forget how likely it is that the team will use a double-digit number of starting pitchers during the season. I linked to the audio in a thread last year (LINK) where Kevin Goldstein of the Astros was on a podcast in which he said every year the team’s front office assumes they are going to need a minimum of 9-10 starting pitchers for the upcoming season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Peralta (starter)

Guerra (starter/pen)

Houser (pen/starter)

Nelson (starter)

Suter (starter, but rehabbing TJ surgery)

Supak (starter)

Diplan (pen/starter)

Davies (starter)

Anderson (starter)

Woodruff (starter/pen)

Burnes (starter/pen)

Wilkerson (starter/pen)

Chacin (starter)

 

That's 13 pitchers on the 40 man right now that are capable of starting games for the Brewers in 2019 - I get having more depth than what anyone thinks is necessary in the pitching department, but any future moves for adding a SP to this roster are going to result in removing one of the above names from the organization. And it won't be as simple as just sending Wilkerson/Houser/Diplan out to pasture or tossing Suter onto the 60 day DL - if they are adding a significant MLB pitcher, then one of their current veteran arms slated to contribute prominently at the MLB level will need to go. IMO that means Davies or Anderson, maybe Guerra. Totally fine with that if the guy coming in is a significant upgrade in talent and the value is right.

 

IMO Stearns' biggest strength as a GM is building good pitching depth across the 40 man roster without blowing up the budget - getting good pitching without having to pay close to the market price for it has allowed the Brewers to spend elsewhere to improve their talent level. Regardless of how Nelson performs in 2019, I think the one thing the staff as a whole could use is a rotation anchor they can routinely count on giving them 6+ IP - it makes it so much easier to lean on heavier bullpen use with other starters. Whether that starter is acquired via FA or trade, I think it's just a matter of when, not if, a deal happens before opening day.

[cesser000]

No team has ever finished a season saying to themselves, "man we overestimated how much pitching we'd need."

I can think of one that may have thought that - the 1970 Orioles Their starting 5 of Cuellar, McNally, Palmer, Phoebus, and Hardin started 161 of their 162 games that year, with 60 complete games and 12 shutouts. Those 5 tossed nearly 80 percent of the team's innings that season.

[MNBrew]

How nice not to have to utilize all the depth you built up! But how nice to have it if it's needed.

[FVBrewerFan]

Peralta (starter)

Guerra (starter/pen)

Houser (pen/starter)

Nelson (starter)

Suter (starter, but rehabbing TJ surgery)

Supak (starter)

Diplan (pen/starter)

Davies (starter)

Anderson (starter)

Woodruff (starter/pen)

Burnes (starter/pen)

Wilkerson (starter/pen)

Chacin (starter)

 

That's 13 pitchers on the 40 man right now that are capable of starting games for the Brewers in 2019 - I get having more depth than what anyone thinks is necessary in the pitching department, but any future moves for adding a SP to this roster are going to result in removing one of the above names from the organization.

 

Why?

 

Suter will be out for the season, so he won't be on the 40. Also, if it came down to adding Miley (or anyone really) and DFA Wilkerson I won't shed any tears.

[wallus]

No team has ever finished a season saying to themselves, "man we overestimated how much pitching we'd need."

I can think of one that may have thought that - the 1970 Orioles Their starting 5 of Cuellar, McNally, Palmer, Phoebus, and Hardin started 161 of their 162 games that year, with 60 complete games and 12 shutouts. Those 5 tossed nearly 80 percent of the team's innings that season.

 

Back when men were men.

[Outlander]

Peralta (starter)

Guerra (starter/pen)

Houser (pen/starter)

Nelson (starter)

Suter (starter, but rehabbing TJ surgery)

Supak (starter)

Diplan (pen/starter)

Davies (starter)

Anderson (starter)

Woodruff (starter/pen)

Burnes (starter/pen)

Wilkerson (starter/pen)

Chacin (starter)

 

That's 13 pitchers on the 40 man right now that are capable of starting games for the Brewers in 2019 - I get having more depth than what anyone thinks is necessary in the pitching department, but any future moves for adding a SP to this roster are going to result in removing one of the above names from the organization.

 

Why?

 

Suter will be out for the season, so he won't be on the 40. Also, if it came down to adding Miley (or anyone really) and DFA Wilkerson I won't shed any tears.

Out of that entire list I would only feel comfortable with Peralta, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes and Chacin starting in 2019 so if there is a clear upgrade over any of those guys and they feel comfortable spending the money then go for it.

[wallus]

Keuchel being able to go 6-7 innings a start would be HUGE for our bullpen. The fact that we could try and line him up against LH heavy teams would be another bonus. This signing would be an awesome way to end the offseason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Keuchel being able to go 6-7 innings a start would be HUGE for our bullpen. The fact that we could try and line him up against LH heavy teams would be another bonus. This signing would be an awesome way to end the offseason.

 

Yep ... this team is going to need several starters who can step up to provide regular 6-7 inning starts. I'd argue that there were times last year when the pen got wore down from overuse. The pen should again be a strength for this team, but a stronger rotation makes the pen even more of a weapon.

[pacopete4]

Peralta (starter but has options if needed)

Guerra (starter/pen.. most likely a pen guy)

Houser (pen/starter... most likely a pen guy)

Nelson (starter but has to prove his health)

Suter (starter, but rehabbing TJ surgery... isn't going to be a starter for us this season most likely)

Supak (starter but there are better options)

Diplan (pen/starter but there are better options)

Davies (starter but can be upgraded and/or traded)

Anderson (starter but can be upgraded and/or traded)

Woodruff (starter/pen, has flexibility which helps our 25-man roster)

Burnes (starter/pen, has flexibility which helps our 25-man roster)

Wilkerson (starter/pen but there are much better options)

Chacin (starter, about the only one that is a lock for our rotation)

 

This is how I see it and none of the above blocks a Keuchel signing or a Miley signing if we decided to go down that road.

 

1. Keuchel

2. Chacin

3. Miley

4. Anderson

5. Davies

 

Pen: Guerra, Burnes, Woodruff

AAA: Peralta, Wilkerson, Diplan, Supak, Houser

DL: Nelson, Suter

 

Log Jams! Let's do it!

[brewmann04]

Yes it be nice to see a starter go 6-7 Innings

[long ball]

I'm torn on Keuchel. His actual RA/9 fluctuates year to year based mostly on babip which is somewhat to be expected when so many balls are hit in play, especially on the ground.

 

Well then I guess its a good thing the Brewers excel at placing their defenders where the ball is put in play.

 

It would seem the Astros are as well since they rank just as highly in defensive efficiency as the Brewers. He still had somewhat drastic year to year fluctuations in RA/9 and ERA.

[coolhandluke121]

Having high year-to-year BABIP variance and utilizing great shifts are not at all mutually exclusive. It would still make Keuchel a good fit for the Brewers. The shifts would just lower the long-term mean BABIP, but the variance around that mean would still be very high.

 

I like the idea a lot. I used to really want him on the Brewers but wasn't as keen on it after the last few years. However, if that means his price drops, I'm all for it. I think this would be another remarkable example of the Brewers knowing when to pounce and, more importantly, knowing when not to (so that acquisitions like Grandal and Keuchel remain financially possible in the first place).

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Definite oversimplification on my part. Where I'd be really leery of Keuchel's numbers blowing up would be if he were to sign with a perennial bottom feeder in DRS such as the Orioles, Phillies, or Mets. His supposed final 3 (Hou, Mil, Atl) is comprised of teams that do a good job aligning their defenses. Who knows, maybe that's playing a role in why they're his final 3.

[Eye Black]

The individual (Paul Crane) that originally reported the Keuchel rumor connecting the Brewers now says the Padres are “trying to get in on Keuchel.” (Link)

[82brewcrew82]

Only two things I'm relatively sure of at this point. One is that DS has his mits in all kinds of things. The second is that 99% of this board has zero notion of what those things are. That isn't a dig at anyone but if they do something it will be out of left field and won't be a routine rumor on some twitter feed weeks before it happens.

[Eye Black]

Only two things I'm relatively sure of at this point. One is that DS has his mits in all kinds of things. The second is that 99% of this board has zero notion of what those things are. That isn't a dig at anyone but if they do something it will be out of left field and won't be a routine rumor on some twitter feed weeks before it happens.

The Lorenzo Cain rumors started on January 4th last year and it seemed a little far fetched at the time. Then it came to fruition three weeks later. Sometimes the moves come out of left field, and sometimes they are things that have been speculated about via Twitter and other mediums.

 

Regarding Stearns being involved in all kinds of different discussions/potential moves, I think that has pretty much been universally accepted as his (and the front office’s) modus operandi at this point.

[TURBO]

Only two things I'm relatively sure of at this point. One is that DS has his mits in all kinds of things. The second is that 100% of this board has zero notion of what those things are. That isn't a dig at anyone but if they do something it will be out of left field and won't be a routine rumor on some twitter feed weeks before it happens.

 

Fixed that for you.