Dallas Keuchel

[Warning Track Power]

3 years and $50 million would be a pretty decent value signing I imagine. It just seems that DS is determined to add a LH Starter.

...and will pivot immediately to Wade Miley if Keuchel signs elsewhere.

[Dadbauer]

Who is this guy, anyways?

[Madhawk23]

I see that the "BucksBrett" guy on twitter (the guy who apparently was the first to break the Moose deal and the particulars last summer), is also now saying that the Brewers have a 3 year deal on the table for Keuchel and is one of the finalists. I have no idea how legit that guy is though, or if he just steals stuff from other sources and tweets it out as if he has his own source in the organization?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I see that the "BucksBrett" guy on twitter (the guy who apparently was the first to break the Moose deal and the particulars last summer), is also now saying that the Brewers have a 3 year deal on the table for Keuchel and is one of the finalists. I have no idea how legit that guy is though, or if he just steals stuff from other sources and tweets it out as if he has his own source in the organization?

 

I would consider Crane a legit source. He's been in the sportscasting biz for a long, long time.

 

I don't know if bucksbrett is legit, but he has seemingly gotten a few scoops here and there. I think in this case, though, he is 100% ripping off his info from Mr. Crane.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere and don't know anything about the amount of trust this guy deserves, but this is at least interesting....

 

Starting to see this pick up steam on Brewers Twitter now. More than likely because you linked it here. Goes to show that a lot of Brewers Twitter obviously lurks here.

[brewmann04]

I still think DS has one big move left before spring training

[reillymcshane]

This would be a surprising signing. I have no idea how much we would be offering per season but a three year offer isn't super long.

 

Certainly not the 4 years/$82 million that MLB Trade Rumors predicted.

 

I would predict 3 years/$50 million.

I was thinking the same thing. Around $16-18M per year for three years.

 

As someone noted early, the Brewers have been about value. $16-18M isn't cheap - but it does represent a better price than anticipated.

 

But it's all speculation now. All these kinds of things are 95% nothing in the end. It only takes one thing to happen to derail the process. We shall see.

[NievesNoNO]

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere and don't know anything about the amount of trust this guy deserves, but this is at least interesting....

 

This seems more credible than a lot of the nonsense we've seen. I thought I remember Keuchel having some negative comments towards the Brewers bullpen heavy approach during the playoffs last year. Based on that, I'd be surprised if he picked us...assuming we are even involved. That said, I'm sure he could get more on board with our approach real quick if we offered him the most money.

 

Cue up the "But can the Brewers fit him in their very concrete and unmoving budget" posts.

 

In all seriousness, the Brewers are out for value. I am convinced that they have no set player budget, other than the idea of getting the most for their money. I am disappointed they haven't brought in a guy to start at 2B yet, but perhaps the value just hasn't been there yet.

 

If they've truly floated a 3-year offer to Keuchel, it means they see value there.

 

I think there's likely a max to what the ownership is willing to spend on payroll. That said, I don't underestimate the desire for Mark A to do something that hasn't been done in Milwaukee. In the grand scheme of things, what's an extra 15 million or so to become a legend in a state? For right or wrong, I think there's still a level of personal ego $$$, if you want to call it that, that can still be leveraged in the Brewers situation that is available currently that might not be there if they had won a WS (recently..... or ever).

[SRB]

Interesting to consider the choice from Keuchel's perspective assuming money is more or less equal. Stay in Houston (likely WS favorites again) for two guaranteed years but in a crowded rotation, or come to Milwaukee for three guaranteed years and immediately become the staff ace.

[Smichaelis9]

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere and don't know anything about the amount of trust this guy deserves, but this is at least interesting....

 

Starting to see this pick up steam on Brewers Twitter now. More than likely because you linked it here. Goes to show that a lot of Brewers Twitter obviously lurks here.

I was noticing that too haha. Well glad it’s getting some conversation started. I’m not a *huge* fan of Keuchel myself, but on a 3 year deal I think the risk is worth it.

[Mudville9]

Anyone know what his numbers are the first two times through the order?

[sveumrules]

Career splits are pretty even...

 

.674 OPS 1st time thru

.677 OPS 2nd time thru

.687 OPS 3rd time thru

[brewerfan82]

Just for some reference, here are some quick 3-year stats considering Keuchel...

 

MLB ranks amongst qualified starters:

 

[pre]Stat Keuchel Best Brewer

---- ------- -----------

HR/9: 0.92 (19th in MLB) 0.90 (Jhoulys Chacin, 14th in MLB)

fWAR: 8.7 (24th in MLB) 6.2 (Jhoulys Chacin, 53rd in MLB)

xFIP: 3.59 (25th in MLB) 4.04 (Jimmy Nelson, 49th in MLB)

ERA: 3.77 (37th in MLB) 3.69 (Chase Anderson, 31st in MLB)

BB/9: 2.66 (40th in MLB) 2.44 (Zach Davies, 30th in MLB)

WHIP: 1.25 (42nd in MLB) 1.22 (Chase Anderson, 34th in MLB)

ERA-: 92 (51st in MLB) 88 (Chase Anderson, 37th in MLB)

AVG: .248 (62nd in MLB) .235 (Chase Anderson, 24th in MLB)

K/9: 7.33 (83rd in MLB) 8.60 (Jimmy Nelson, 42nd in MLB)[/pre]

 

Comparison with current Brewer rotation options:

 

[pre]Pitcher (Hand, Age) K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP ERA- ERA xFIP fWAR

------------------- --- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

Keuchel (LHP, 31) 7.3 2.66 0.92 .248 1.25 92 3.77 3.59 8.7

Chacin (RHP, 31) 7.2 3.45 0.90 .236 1.28 97 4.02 4.50 6.2

Davies (RHP, 26) 6.6 2.44 1.03 .265 1.31 95 4.06 4.22 5.9

Nelson (RHP, 30) 8.6 3.40 1.04 .260 1.38 95 4.06 4.04 5.5

Anderson (RHP, 31) 7.6 3.01 1.42 .235 1.22 88 3.69 4.63 4.1

Guerra (RHP, 34) 7.9 3.90 1.26 .239 1.34 93 3.90 4.62 3.1

Suter (LHP, 29) 7.1 1.91 1.39 .264 1.26 102 4.28 4.10 2.3

Peralta (RHP, 24) 11.1 4.76 0.98 .177 1.15 108 4.40 4.35 1.1

Woodruff (RHP, 27) 6.9 3.53 1.07 .253 1.38 122 5.22 4.82 0.6[/pre]

 

He'd be right at, or near the top, of the rotation for nearly every stat you can throw out there and he doesn't do anything poorly. Add the fact we have a complete void of left handed options in the rotation, and he'd be a great add, especially if we're talking about a contract under 4 years.

[TURBO]

I honestly wonder if Milwaukee is a place that starters would prefer not to come to based on innings pitched per game, or what is assumed will be innings pitched per game...

 

I can see why a guy who can go 6 to 7 almost every time out would be cautious about coming to the Brewers...

 

Not specifically Dallas Keuchel, but any starter.

[MNBrew]

If Keuchel ended up in MIL -- with which I'd be happy -- I'd think somebody already under contract who's a non-headliner name (Anderson, Davies, Thames, who knows?) likely ends up elsewhere before Opening Day.

[SRB]

I honestly wonder if Milwaukee is a place that starters would prefer not to come to based on innings pitched per game, or what is assumed will be innings pitched per game...

 

I can see why a guy who can go 6 to 7 almost every time out would be cautious about coming to the Brewers...

 

Not specifically Dallas Keuchel, but any starter.

 

I think any starter would love to have one of the best bullpens in the game. They care way more about Wins (don't ask me why) than innings pitched. It's not like we have a six-man rotation and he's missing starts.

[pacopete4]

This would be an awesome get and I’d believe there would be other trades that happen after it to free up rotation space and money.

[billymac]

Tried finding some quotes on it, but remember in the playoffs Keuchel came out and said he believed the Brewers pitching strategy was a fad and that it would never work long term. I bet he felt it diminished the value of starters with his Free Agency time coming up. Not sure if his line of thinking during the playoffs would prevent him from choosing us if he had two equal offers on the table, but he clearly wasn't a fan of the strategy back then.

[brewerfan82]

I honestly wonder if Milwaukee is a place that starters would prefer not to come to based on innings pitched per game, or what is assumed will be innings pitched per game...

 

I can see why a guy who can go 6 to 7 almost every time out would be cautious about coming to the Brewers...

 

Not specifically Dallas Keuchel, but any starter.

Theoretically, if you're planning on using your bullpen a lot with most of your rotation, a horse that can give the bullpen rest by getting deep into games the other days becomes very important. If a guy has proven he can successfully go through an order 3+ times, they might be able to actually leverage their rotation usage to 'guarantee' they plan on using him in a different role than their normal 'two times through and you're out' pitchers. Might be a stretch, but might make a lot of sense too.

[DHonks]

To be honest, maybe the Brewers want a 5-man rotation (4-5 innings), with several multiple inning relievers serving as a middle-innings rotation (3 man middle innings rotation of 2-3 innings). We could have Guerra, Burnes, and Woodruff serving in this new role where their stuff may play up in the 2-3 inning role

[Lathund]

If the Brewers had a starter who pitched as well 3rd time through the order as he did the 2nd, they'd let that guy pitch longer, I'm sure of it. Counsell alluded to as much himself at one point, talking about how you do the most with what you've got. Compared it to the early 2000s Diamondbacks which Counsell was on, where they had Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson who you'd certainly use quite differently than what the Brewers did in 2018. The quick hooks are a way to avoid a specific issue, the weakness third time through the order that many (or even most) starters have. If that weakness isn't there, then there's less need for them. Having one or two spots in the rotation being guys who can go deep into games just makes the other rotation spots stronger, allowing you to use the bullpen more efficiently and more aggressively on those days. I imagine that even if Keuchel or Nelson or someone else turns out to be a real workhorse we still won't see a ton of 110+ pitch games or a 220 IP season, but they'll get a longer leash than the guys had in 2018.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the Brewers had a starter who pitched as well 3rd time through the order as he did the 2nd, they'd let that guy pitch longer, I'm sure of it. Counsell alluded to as much himself at one point, talking about how you do the most with what you've got. Compared it to the early 2000s Diamondbacks which Counsell was on, where they had Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson who you'd certainly use quite differently than what the Brewers did in 2018. The quick hooks are a way to avoid a specific issue, the weakness third time through the order that many (or even most) starters have. If that weakness isn't there, then there's less need for them. Having one or two spots in the rotation being guys who can go deep into games just makes the other rotation spots stronger, allowing you to use the bullpen more efficiently and more aggressively on those days. I imagine that even if Keuchel or Nelson or someone else turns out to be a real workhorse we still won't see a ton of 110+ pitch games or a 220 IP season, but they'll get a longer leash than the guys had in 2018.

 

Yep. I think you are 100% right. I really couldn't agree with this more. That doesn't mean that the Brewers aren't going to continue to use analytics to "blur the lines" between starter and reliever based on matchups. But I agree that if the Brewers had the horses capable of throwing 7 strong nearly every time out, or if the bullpen wasn't as effective, you'd see longer starts. They really aren't inventing anything. They are just more cognizant of matchups.

[brewerfan82]

Small sample alert, but to backup some other posters' points, 3-year, 3rd time through the lineup stats do support that he's shown he'd provide a more effective option to go deeper into games than current rotation options:

 

[pre]Pitcher (Hand, Age) IP wOBA OPS xFIP

------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----

Keuchel (LHP, 31) 143.1 .311 .718 3.43

Davies (RHP, 26) 103.1 .341 .802 4.56

Nelson (RHP, 30) 93.2 .353 .823 4.59

Guerra (RHP, 34) 74.2 .307 .714 4.63

Chacin (RHP, 31) 107.1 .328 .759 5.08

Anderson (RHP, 31) 84.2 .318 .732 5.47

Suter (LHP, 29) 28.2 .411 .982 5.87

 

(guys who haven't even pitched 12 IP section)

Peralta (RHP, 24) 11.1 .254 .574 4.29

Woodruff (RHP, 27) 11.2 .257 .558 5.45[/pre]

 

The most impressive stat may be just the sheer total number of innings he's pitched the 3rd time through the lineup. 143.1 IP is the 16th most in the MLB the past 3 years. While part of that may be because he's been allowed by his team to pitch that deep, it also indicates his stats aren't swayed better by *only* letting him pitch that deep in games that he's going good.

[nate82]

Adding Keuchel would allow the Brewers to trade at least one of Anderson or Davies. I don't see the Brewers trading Thames the market for 1B/DH types is just non-existent. Thames has more value playing for the Brewers than he does on the trade market and that is more to do with there being no market for 1B/DH types.

 

Keuchel on a 3-year $54m contract is a steal for what you are getting. Go back about 5-10 years ago and Keuchel would be getting a contract of 5-8 years at an AAV between $20-22m. Go back to 2012 and CJ Wilson received a 5-year $75m contract with the Angels basically a team is going to get Keuchel at the price of signing Wilson. Keuchel probably should have been looking at figures closer to what Matt Cain signed to at 6-years $127.5 million.

 

Keuchel's value is closer to Matt Cain than CJ Wilson and whoever signs him will be getting him at a deep discount.

[SRB]

I honestly wonder if Milwaukee is a place that starters would prefer not to come to based on innings pitched per game, or what is assumed will be innings pitched per game...

 

I can see why a guy who can go 6 to 7 almost every time out would be cautious about coming to the Brewers...

 

Not specifically Dallas Keuchel, but any starter.

Theoretically, if you're planning on using your bullpen a lot with most of your rotation, a horse that can give the bullpen rest by getting deep into games the other days becomes very important. If a guy has proven he can successfully go through an order 3+ times, they might be able to actually leverage their rotation usage to 'guarantee' they plan on using him in a different role than their normal 'two times through and you're out' pitchers. Might be a stretch, but might make a lot of sense too.

 

This is also a very good point. I think we would have been in the World Series last year if Jeffress wasn't so gassed from the bullpen pitching high leverage situations practically every game all season.