Dallas Keuchel

[HiAndTight]

I don't think that people who make negative comments about player salaries feel bitter or wronged.

 

I think it's hard for the average person to understand that kind of greed once we are talking about millions and millions of dollars.

 

Makes sense for a teacher, cop, ditch digger to look at a guy making 10 million dollars a year, and complaining about only getting 10 million dollars a year, when that same average person pulls in 40 grand a year.

 

I don't personally care how much athletes make, but I can surely understand why others think it's absurd.

 

 

It's only greed in the public court when it's the athlete asking for more money. When it is the owner shaving a few million off the top, that's just kind of swept under the rug, because nobody is watching the owner on game day. I think they should all get theirs. I typically side with players when they're trying to extract money from people who would cut all ties at the first broken bone if they could. Much the way I think average people should look out for themselves and never feel loyalty to employers who'd lay them off to raise EPS 1/10th of a cent.

 

 

 

Excellent post. I could not agree with you more.

 

I'd also add that people seem to conflate "value" with "importance." Christian Yelich isn't more important than a good teacher, Very few things in the world are more important than a really good teacher who motivates you. But not only is it difficult to rank a teacher, but it's also just simple economics. Teachers, as important as they are(or Cops, your FD, whatever it may be) simply don't bring in 11 billion dollars to be divided up among the 1200 people(just using 40 man roster and 30 teams for the easiest number).

 

I think you nailed it though, the biggest reason why players get bashed while owners don't is because you can see the players fail on the baseball field.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the 'family to feed' stuff is just a figure of speech players use to be succinct about why there is a contract dispute. It's just another way of saying "I'm looking out for #1."

 

The owners get to play good cop and just say "we offered $20 million that's a lot" which is a much more sympathetic angle for fans.

[BillScottCanRake]

The thing I wonder about is if the nature of negotiations have changed recently with analytics seemingly playing a large part in teams determining player value. Are teams less willing to engage in back-and-forth negotiations because they feel like they better know what a players value is than perhaps they did before? Are they more willing go to players and say "This is what we are willing to pay based on projected future performance, but this is our best offer"?

 

If things have changed over the last several years, I totally get why players, especially those who are still unsigned, feel like they aren't being negotiated with. If someone thinks they have a certain value and potential employers are continually telling them they don't think they are worth that much, that is difficult to take regardless of profession or the money involved.

 

I guess there have always been differences in opinion regarding player values, so this isn't new. What does seem to be new, or maybe more common than it has been, is that both sides are more willing to stick to their guns. Keuchel thinks his services have a certain value, and right now teams don't agree. I don't think Keuchel is wrong to wait for a contract he thinks is fair, and I don't think teams are wrong for not signing him long-term because they fear the last few years of his contract could be really bad for the team. I don't think either side should feel compelled into an agreement they aren't comfortable with. I'm not sure what the solution is; I am inclined to think there isn't one.

[KeithStone53151]

It's really easy to say "well someone should pay him what he wants...he deserves it". None of the 30 teams want to stand up and be that team. I am always so curious to know the truth in these cases as to what he's turning down. Not what one side or the other spills to the media...but the truth. I don't think we'll know much until he signs and even then we likely won't get the definitive truth.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think anybody thinks some team is liable to pay him what he wants, just that it's his prerogative to say "nah I'm good" if it's not what he wants. I kind of liken it to a contractor that gives a ridiculous quote for a job he really doesn't want to do. People will look at it and go "This is a rip off," well if the guy doesn't need the work, that's what an annoying job is worth to him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think anybody thinks some team is liable to pay him what he wants, just that it's his prerogative to say "nah I'm good" if it's not what he wants. I kind of liken it to a contractor that gives a ridiculous quote for a job he really doesn't want to do. People will look at it and go "This is a rip off," well if the guy doesn't need the work, that's what an annoying job is worth to him.

 

Totally agree, as long as that contractor doesn't gripe about not getting the work and complain he's not getting what he deserves if he's got unrealistic expectations. If you want to stick with comparisons, I'd almost compare Keuchel and Kimbrel's current situations to a realtor around 2010 listing a house that's in good condition but with significant maintenance costs a couple years down the road (needs a roof, water heater, new furnace), and they base the listing price on spring 2006 assessments and wonder why nobody's chomping at the bit to buy it.

[JosephC]

Keith Law posted a 2009 re-draft on ESPN's website, and since I don't have access to it, I went through and looked at the bWAR for all the players that signed that were taken in the first 30 rounds. BTW, the Brewers picked 26th in that draft and the 26th highest bWAR so far in that draft belongs to Enrique Hernandez. I'm guessing he'd be a fairly anonymous player to most Brewer fans if not for that home run he hit off Hader earlier this season.

 

But the other interesting thing that I noticed was.

Dallas Keuchel = 18.3 bWAR

Patrick Corbin = 14.2 bWAR

 

Which brings into question:

Patrick Corbin = 6 years, 140 million dollars

Dallas Keuchel = far, far less

 

With two pretty obvious reasons for what has happened:

Dallas Keuchel = 31 years, 134 days old as of today

Patrick Corbin = 29 years, 300 days old as of today

Dallas Keuchel = 6.7 K/9 in 2018

Patrick Corbin = 11.1 K/9 in 2018

 

IMO that should be real valuable information for agents moving forward.

 

Also worth noting that the Nationals may be the biggest disappointment in all of MLB so far. Only 1/4 of the way through the season, and a lot can change, but as if this morning they have a record that is only 1.5 games ahead of the Royals and Orioles. A bit of evidence in there that Stearns more and more obvious approach of making big investments in bats and let the pitching sort itself out is the smart way to go.

[OnTheBlack]

Keith Law posted a 2009 re-draft on ESPN's website, and since I don't have access to it, I went through and looked at the bWAR for all the players that signed that were taken in the first 30 rounds. BTW, the Brewers picked 26th in that draft and the 26th highest bWAR so far in that draft belongs to Enrique Hernandez. I'm guessing he'd be a fairly anonymous player to most Brewer fans if not for that home run he hit off Hader earlier this season.

 

But the other interesting thing that I noticed was.

Dallas Keuchel = 18.3 bWAR

Patrick Corbin = 14.2 bWAR

 

Which brings into question:

Patrick Corbin = 6 years, 140 million dollars

Dallas Keuchel = far, far less

 

With two pretty obvious reasons for what has happened:

Dallas Keuchel = 31 years, 134 days old as of today

Patrick Corbin = 29 years, 300 days old as of today

Dallas Keuchel = 6.7 K/9 in 2018

Patrick Corbin = 11.1 K/9 in 2018

 

IMO that should be real valuable information for agents moving forward.

 

Also worth noting that the Nationals may be the biggest disappointment in all of MLB so far. Only 1/4 of the way through the season, and a lot can change, but as if this morning they have a record that is only 1.5 games ahead of the Royals and Orioles. A bit of evidence in there that Stearns more and more obvious approach of making big investments in bats and let the pitching sort itself out is the smart way to go.

 

 

I don't think a bad start by the Nats is evidence of anything. Corbin's been outstanding, their problem is their bullpen is one of the worst in decades. That and Trea Turner, their best player has been out, Rendon and Soto have dealt with injuries.

 

I don't see how you argue that them spending money on starting pitching, legit aces for that matter has been the problem. Their pitching is why they were expected to be so good and they've delivered. It's not as if they signed pitchers like Darvish and haven't gotten anything out of them. Give them a solid BP and keep their stars healthy and they're fine.

 

This certainly isn't advocating a signing of Keuchel, but I do think the Corbin signing. Their real problem was the fact that they didn't do anything about that pen. A lefty with good stuff who can get strikeouts who loses their velocity can at least turn into a Keuchel type. A lefty who's already throwing in the upper 80's loses any more and where do you go from there? There's not a lot of successful starters who throw 86-87. Certainly not TOR types.

[OnTheBlack]

I think the 'family to feed' stuff is just a figure of speech players use to be succinct about why there is a contract dispute. It's just another way of saying "I'm looking out for #1."

 

The owners get to play good cop and just say "we offered $20 million that's a lot" which is a much more sympathetic angle for fans.

 

 

I also really haven't heard that many players say this. I think this stands out because of Latrell Spreewell turning down a huge contract at the time(3/21 IIRC) and using that phrase.

 

I haven't even heard many baseball players use it.

 

The real issue isn't what Keuchel thinks, it's the complaints you heard from other players talking about how it doesn't make sense that Kimbrel and Keuchel aren't signed yet.

 

 

From a fans perspective, I don't get why we have to pick out one or the other as a bad guy though. The owners are billionaires. That still doesn't mean a team should overpay for a players services. The players want what they feel like they're worth. That's important no matter what line of work you're in. I left a job for another for less money because I didn't feel like I was being valued fairly, hoping I'd make up for it at the new job eventually and I was. But being angry while working somewhere feeling like you're worth more than they're paying you isn't a good fit for either side. It's just most of us have to suck it up and don't have millions in the bank to be able to act on it.

[Brew crew 92]

Keuchel has stated he’s willing to sign a one year deal. With reports that Kimbrel wants the multi-year deal, and Stearns M/O not to sign Pitchers to large multi-year deals, and with his familiarity with Keuchel from his Houston days, and with our need of a Starting pitcher that can consistently go deep and not to mention being a lefty with playoff experience > this makes a lot of sense to sign him.

 

he’s also been pitching 100 pitch simulated games and probably could be ready after a couple starts in AAA. Reports are the Yankees Cardinals among other teams interested. It’s been so quiet with the crew on this front, which because of past history, leads me to believe it could happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's quiet because the Brewers starting pitching is both high in talent and depth. They have 7-8 guys who have totally legit claims to be starters in this rotation, and that isn't even counting Burnes and Peralta, who really don't, but are legit starting pitching prospects. Would Keuchel be an upgrade over what they already have? There have been some bumps lately, but Davies, Woodruff and Gio have been excellent for the most part, while Anderson has been solid. Chacin hasn't been good, but has his track record to fall back on. Nelson will likely take Gio's spot, but his injury doesn't seem like the type that will be long term. Chacin just went on the IL today, but that doesn't seem like a long term thing as well.

 

In any case, it's tough to see any room at the inn currently.

[mattyo]

Always room at the inn for 1 year deals if the owner is willing to fork up the cash.

[Brew crew 92]

Always room at the inn for 1 year deals if the owner is willing to fork up the cash.

 

Agree.

We are deep in starters, but, Keuchel would give us a playoff tested veteran pitcher that regularly pitches deep into games. It would be a massive improvement to our rotation. With hopefully a strong Nelson our rotation would be closer to the powerhouse LA rotation.

[TURBO]

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Cardinals are "among the teams that have kept tabs on" the Dallas Keuchel market.

 

Keuchel is no longer tied to draft pick compensation, as the 2019 MLB Draft will get underway on Monday night, so a range of different teams will now be jumping into the mix. He's a great fit for the Cardinals, whose combined rotation ERA of 4.35 ranks 16th among all 30 major league clubs. Keuchel, 31, registered a 3.74 ERA and 153/58 K/BB ratio over 204 2/3 innings (34 starts) with the Astros in 2018 before failing to find a contract to his liking throughout the winter and spring months.

 

 

SOURCE: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Jun 3, 2019, 11:56 AM ET

[TURBO]

According to LaVelle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Twins have interest in both Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel.

 

Both elite-level hurlers remain unsigned into June, though after midnight on Sunday, they'll no longer require draft pick compensation which should speed things along exponentially. The Twins have surprisingly been the best team in baseball through the first few months of the season -- sitting at 40-18 and 11 1/2 games ahead of the Indians and White Sox in the American League Central. Adding either marquee arm -- or even both -- would only add to their title aspirations.

 

 

SOURCE: Minneapolis Star Tribune

Jun 2, 2019, 11:45 PM ET

[RockCoCougars]

I hope that the Cardinals get him!

[TURBO]

According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, another source believes that the Yankees are going to land Dallas Keuchel and that they are emerging as the "true favorites" to sign him.

 

This comes just minutes after Feinsand reported that the Yankees and Braves were the favorites and that their offers were believed to be similar. Perhaps something changed overnight, but it wouldn't be a shock to hear the Yankees have jumped in front. They could use another quality arm as the year moves along. All signs point to this situation moving quickly now that draft pick compensation is no longer an issue.

 

 

SOURCE: Mark Feinsand on Twitter

Jun 4, 2019, 10:12 AM ET

[KeithStone53151]

Why are the Yankees so darn gung-ho on LH starters? They already acquired Paxton and Happ this offseason, now they want Keuchel also. Their biggest obstacles in the AL are the Red Sox and Astros, both heavily RH lineups. Maybe they simply don't understand how splits work?

[brooks_quichenick]

Why are the Yankees so darn gung-ho on LH starters? They already acquired Paxton and Happ this offseason, now they want Keuchel also. Their biggest obstacles in the AL are the Red Sox and Astros, both heavily RH lineups. Maybe they simply don't understand how splits work?

 

Short porch in RF at Yankee Stadium maybe? Sox and Astros are very RH dominant true, but those guys hit well no matter what hand the pitcher is throwing with.

[wildcat83]

Signed with the Braves.

[Fear The Chorizo]

So apparently that 'standing for principle' claim was just posturing - 1 yr $13M is what I'm seeing for his signing. If I'm Keuchel I'm firing Boras before the ink dried on that contract paper. Although, I believe he switched agents after he turned down that $90M extension offer from the Astros back in 2015 and moved to Boras once everyone saw he was going to go the arbitration/no extension route and try to cash in via UFA as soon as he could have. Given his age when Keuchel broke out and length of team control the Astros had on him largely through his prime, I think he got poor advice on not being willing to explore contract extensions. Taking the arbitration route paid Keuchel roughly $30M so far, and now ~$13M more guaranteed leaves him over $40M shy of what he would have earned with that extension, which only would have extended him through 2020, I believe.

 

Add Keuchel to the growing list of players that lost out on alot of career earning by taking this approach.