Dallas Keuchel

[OldHeidelberg]

Sorry, Dallas. Frustrating or not, your market value is whatever the market says it is.

 

Yeah teams are not going to shell out big long term deal for aging sinker ball starters. He should have taken the 90 million when he had the chance. But he is a lefty and those guys sometimes age well, he just needs to accept that teams are going to want shorter term deals with him now.

[bjkrautk]

https://sports.yahoo.com/dallas-keuchel-knows-what-hes-worth-and-will-not-settle-035643666.html?src=rss

 

^ Link to the original source article, for anyone interested in reading.

 

Part of market value, by definition, is what a buyer is willing to pay. I like that he takes ownership for signing vs. non-signing (in contrast to the discussion of the contract extension for the Braves infielders), but the decision to hold out for more than the market is willing to bear has already cost him at least 1/7th of his major league salary for the year...and it will likely be 2/7ths before he signs after the draft.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.

 

That's totally fine by me, but if what he wants isn't available and he's unwilling to settle for a lesser offer to continue making millions of dollars I hope he's ok with sitting out, too. The one thing I don't want to see are quotes from him 2-3 years down the road about how he got screwed and lost a year of pitching in his prime because nobody wanted to give a 31 year old a 5 yr, $100M contract (or whatever his perceived value of himself currently is). Part of that article and his quote leave me with the sense that he's going to have sour grapes.

[brewmann04]

I think we better off going with Craig if we do anything and i was a big dallas fan

[adambr2]

Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.

 

I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

[JosephC]

I'm guessing that even the most commonly used metrics don't get Keuchel to near the money he was looking for at the beginning of the off-season.

 

Let's say 1 WAR is worth 9 million this year. Then let's say dollar/WAR increased by an average of 7% each year. That would make 1 WAR = 11.79716 million for the 2023, which would be the final year of a 5 year contract.

 

Keuchel has a three year average bWAR/fWAR of right around 2.5. fWAR slightly higher, bWAR slightly lower. But that's not a crazy number, I think if one would poll 30 MLB front offices, there might be a few that would have him at slightly above 3 and a few that would have him right around two but 2.5 seems like a real fair number based on his recent history.

 

But this is the key factor in the metrics. He's 31 years old, and at the point where the rule of thumb is that one can expect a 0.5 WAR decrease from one season to the next. So if he gets a 5 year deal, we start at 2.5 in 2019 but end up at only 0.5 WAR in 2023. It's hugely significant. His value the final year of a five year deal would probably only be estimated at 0.5 x 11.79716 = 5.90 million.

 

So to fill in all the blanks, this is what the contract should look like based on pretty commonly used metrics.

1 year, 22.5 million (22.5 AAV)

2 years, 41.76 million (20.88 AAV)

3 years, 57.21615 million (19.07205 AAV)

4 years, 68.24154 million (17.06038 AAV)

5 years, 74.14012 million (14.82802 AAV)

And then all these numbers need to be adjusted down because he's missed a good chunk of the 2019 season.

 

It seems pretty obvious that his math factors in zero decline for the next 6 years if his initial asking price was indeed the rumored 6 years, 160-180 million dollars. He'd be looking at a total of 15, 16, 17 WAR...something like that...over a 6 year time-frame. 15 WAR/6 seasons = 2.5 WAR so no decline from what he's done the last three years.

[SeaBass]

Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.

 

I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

A free market also entails one party setting a price for selling an asset. If you go into a jewelry store and tell the sales person you're going to buy a $25,000 diamond ring for $19,000 because that's all you're willing to pay I have a feeling you'll be walking out of that store with $19,000 and no diamond ring.

 

If teams don't want to buy his diamond ring for his price then they don't ever get to wear his diamond ring. If teams are fine with that, great. If the player is fine with that, great.

 

Reading between the lines it sounds to me like teams are not negotiating with him on price. They're going to him with their price and not responding to his counter offers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.

 

I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

A free market also entails one party setting a price for selling an asset. If you go into a jewelry store and tell the sales person you're going to buy a $25,000 diamond ring for $19,000 because that's all you're willing to pay I have a feeling you'll be walking out of that store with $19,000 and no diamond ring.

 

If teams don't want to buy his diamond ring for his price then they don't ever get to wear his diamond ring. If teams are fine with that, great. If the player is fine with that, great.

 

Reading between the lines it sounds to me like teams are not negotiating with him on price. They're going to him with their price and not responding to his counter offers.

 

Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.

[SeaBass]

Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.

That's not what he's saying though. He's saying he's basing it off of the "now". I mean, if Houston offered that then but isn't now I don't see how he can hold other teams to what Houston offered him a few years ago. That makes no sense (Edit: meaning I agree with most posters that's not going to work out for him if that is indeed what he's doing).

 

I think we've heard from enough players that have been going through this process that, in some cases, the teams aren't negotiating price. They're making take it or leave it offers and hoping guys panic and sign. They're playing bully-ball and it's worked for the most part.

 

I think this most recent statement or report coming from Keuchel is him saying, I'm not panicking, you're going to have to negotiate with me if you want me to sign with you.

 

I do not think it means that Keuchel has his price and won't budge from it, he's just not engaging with bully-ball tactics. That's my feeling, I could be wrong.

[OnTheBlack]

Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.

 

I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

 

 

The thing is, Baseball isn't a free market. Everyone keeps using this analogy and it's not really applicable. It'd be applicable if these players weren't controlled by their teams for 6-10 years. The MLBPA has to know that deals for the 30+ year old stars are changing, but what's equally problematic with a likely work stoppage coming up in a few years are the deals that Albies and Acuna signed. And both of them were guys who were likely to hit free agency in their prime years.

The most reasonable resolution is the one that's the most harmful to a team like the Brewers. To cut back on the years of team control and or to change the compensation for players during those years of team control. I don't know what that's going to look like when the two sides are done fighting, but it does seem possible that this could lead to a work stoppage that could be as disastrous to baseball as the '94 strike.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.

That's not what he's saying though. He's saying he's basing it off of the "now". I mean, if Houston offered that then but isn't now I don't see how he can hold other teams to what Houston offered him a few years ago. That makes no sense (Edit: meaning I agree with most posters that's not going to work out for him if that is indeed what he's doing).

 

I think we've heard from enough players that have been going through this process that, in some cases, the teams aren't negotiating price. They're making take it or leave it offers and hoping guys panic and sign. They're playing bully-ball and it's worked for the most part.

 

I think this most recent statement or report coming from Keuchel is him saying, I'm not panicking, you're going to have to negotiate with me if you want me to sign with you.

 

I do not think it means that Keuchel has his price and won't budge from it, he's just not engaging with bully-ball tactics. That's my feeling, I could be wrong.

 

 

I think it has alot more to do with trying to use other FA pitching contracts signed around the time he busted out and was one of the best lefty starters in the game back in 2014/2015, without factoring in recent changes to how front offices weigh player regression as they move past their prime into their early-mid 30's. The offseason before he won the Cy Young in 2015, Jon Lester signed a 6 yr, $155M deal that also had a few option years tacked on the back end of it with the Cubs as a 31 year old. Scherzer signed a 7 yr, $210 M deal with the Nats that same offseason as a 30 yr old. James Shields went 4 yrs, $75M as a 33 yr old. The offseason after Keuchel won the Cy Young, there were plenty of crazy FA pitching contracts handed out:

 

David Price went for 7 yr $217M as a 30 yr old

Greinke went 6 yr $206M as a 32 yr old

Cueto went 6 yr $130M as a 30 yr old

Zimmerman went 5yr $110M as a 30 yr old

Samardzija went 5 yr $90M at 31

Kazmir 3 yr $48M at 32

Leake went 5 yr $80M at 28

 

So these contracts in a vacuum, particularly at the time Keuchel put up better stats than most of them, would seem to make his decision to turn down a 5 yr, $90M extension make alot of sense considering it would have bought out his Age 31 and 32 seasons in 2019-2020.

 

However, the 2016-2017 offseason was a total bust for FA starting pitching contracts - 39 yr old Rich Hill and 32 yr old Jeremy Hellickson were basically the headliners. The following offseason, 32 yr old Darvish wend 6 yrs $126M to headline starter contracts - basically an $80M haircut compared to what Greinke got at that same age 2 years earlier.

 

The trend started with an awful crop of FA pitchers after 2016, followed by a bunch of the 2017 FA pitchers falling on their faces after begrudgingly signing deals they all thought weren't rich enough. This last offseason Corbin went 6 yrs, $140M at 29, which based on AAV and assuming the two pitchers' projections are equal over the next 4 seasons would project Keuchel to get 4 yrs, ~$94M considering he's 2 years older. Problem for Keuchel is the projections indicate Corbin is a much better pitcher than Keuchel is at this stage.

 

Long story short, I think Keuchel is basing too much of his valuation off what he was told he was worth 3-4 offseasons ago during his prime without factoring in both his own regression and how the baseball free agent market has devalued contracts to older pitchers.

[pacopete4]

I'm glad we signed Gio and didn't sink a bunch of money into Dallas. Small market move that could pay off this season and beyond because we don't have money sunk into a pitcher that might not be all that great.

[xisxisxis]

Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

 

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...

[SRB]

Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

 

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...

 

[Oxy]

Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

 

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...

 

 

That's not a bad thing! That means we all get to go to the local dollar store and buy unbelievably cheap milk, eggs, bread, toilet paper and smart phones. If we so choose, we can even buy cheap-ish water (although my local dollar store is often out of water....strange world)!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's so exhausting to me when people compare athletes to factory workers and lament they should be grateful for making so much money because so many struggle. They are living in a different universe. There is nothing wrong with them saying "pass" because they don't think the offer is right. They're free to be delusional about it if they want. If you had already banked millions you'd have the same privilege. They don't have to accept a club's best offer is it's not up to snuff.

[SeaBass]

It's so exhausting to me when people compare athletes to factory workers and lament they should be grateful for making so much money because so many struggle. They are living in a different universe. There is nothing wrong with them saying "pass" because they don't think the offer is right. They're free to be delusional about it if they want. If you had already banked millions you'd have the same privilege. They don't have to accept a club's best offer is it's not up to snuff.

Couldn't agree more. It's just so much wasted energy harboring feelings of envy or anger for people more fortunate than yourself. I'm not sure how anyone can be a fan of sports and then turn around and complain about how much their salaries are.

 

I'm sure this seems obvious but these guys aren't just trying to set up their own life, they're trying to set up their family for generations to come. The smart ones are anyway. There's no shame in that. Most everyone here would do the exact same thing in their position.

[HiAndTight]

It's so exhausting to me when people compare athletes to factory workers and lament they should be grateful for making so much money because so many struggle. They are living in a different universe. There is nothing wrong with them saying "pass" because they don't think the offer is right. They're free to be delusional about it if they want. If you had already banked millions you'd have the same privilege. They don't have to accept a club's best offer is it's not up to snuff.

 

 

Agreed. The average person is the average person for a reason. They're not among the best in the world and working in an extremely exclusive group which creates 11 billion dollars of revenue.

 

It just comes off as bitter. And there are plenty of reasons for people to feel that way, plenty of ways people can be wronged just feels like wasted energy. If you're one of the best in the world at anything, you get paid like it. You're likely to be very very rich.

[TURBO]

I don't think that people who make negative comments about player salaries feel bitter or wronged.

 

I think it's hard for the average person to understand that kind of greed once we are talking about millions and millions of dollars.

 

Makes sense for a teacher, cop, ditch digger to look at a guy making 10 million dollars a year, and complaining about only getting 10 million dollars a year, when that same average person pulls in 40 grand a year.

 

I don't personally care how much athletes make, but I can surely understand why others think it's absurd.

[adambr2]

It doesn't bother me at all when athletes put a price on themselves and stick to it. If they choose not to play for the price they want, that's totally their choice and I don't begrudge them for that choice or call them greedy for it.

 

Relating a rich athlete or rich star of any kind to an average person, the only time it becomes a bit eye rolling for me is when they start throwing around phrases like "can't feed my family" or "slave mentality".

 

Anyone with a net worth of even $5M dollars has the option to live a modest life and never work again. If they choose to live above those means, that's totally their choice, but I certainly don't feel bad for the ones who manage to squander it all and end up as average persons themselves.

 

On that note, I wish all professional sports leagues were offering education on personal finance management and placing a heavy emphasis on it.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd be interested in the 'metrics' that Dallas is using to calculate a projected contract for an aging pitcher with a 90 mph fastball that had a WHIP approaching 1.4 last year. If he sticks to his guns, he's not going to throw another pitch in MLB, and if he thinks the QO is handcuffing him, he's delusional.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think that people who make negative comments about player salaries feel bitter or wronged.

 

I think it's hard for the average person to understand that kind of greed once we are talking about millions and millions of dollars.

 

Makes sense for a teacher, cop, ditch digger to look at a guy making 10 million dollars a year, and complaining about only getting 10 million dollars a year, when that same average person pulls in 40 grand a year.

 

I don't personally care how much athletes make, but I can surely understand why others think it's absurd.

 

 

It's only greed in the public court when it's the athlete asking for more money. When it is the owner shaving a few million off the top, that's just kind of swept under the rug, because nobody is watching the owner on game day. I think they should all get theirs. I typically side with players when they're trying to extract money from people who would cut all ties at the first broken bone if they could. Much the way I think average people should look out for themselves and never feel loyalty to employers who'd lay them off to raise EPS 1/10th of a cent.

[brooks_quichenick]

I don't think that people who make negative comments about player salaries feel bitter or wronged.

 

I think it's hard for the average person to understand that kind of greed once we are talking about millions and millions of dollars.

 

Makes sense for a teacher, cop, ditch digger to look at a guy making 10 million dollars a year, and complaining about only getting 10 million dollars a year, when that same average person pulls in 40 grand a year.

 

I don't personally care how much athletes make, but I can surely understand why others think it's absurd.

 

 

It's only greed in the public court when it's the athlete asking for more money. When it is the owner shaving a few million off the top, that's just kind of swept under the rug, because nobody is watching the owner on game day. I think they should all get theirs. I typically side with players when they're trying to extract money from people who would cut all ties at the first broken bone if they could. Much the way I think average people should look out for themselves and never feel loyalty to employers who'd lay them off to raise EPS 1/10th of a cent.

 

If there was a like button I'd click it for this post.

[TURBO]

Jon Heyman said on the Big Time Baseball podcast Monday that the Rays "are looking at" Dallas Keuchel.

 

The Rays have previously been connected to Craig Kimbrel, as well, and Heyman believes the club will "seriously" consider both pitchers once they no longer have draft pick compensation attached to them after next month's Draft. Heyman has also reported previously that the Yankees will be interested in Keuchel after the Draft and he reiterated that Monday. The left-hander posted a 3.74 ERA over 34 starts with the Astros last season.

 

Source: Jon Heyman on Twitter

 

May 13, 2019, 8:49 PM ET

[HiAndTight]

It doesn't bother me at all when athletes put a price on themselves and stick to it. If they choose not to play for the price they want, that's totally their choice and I don't begrudge them for that choice or call them greedy for it.

 

Relating a rich athlete or rich star of any kind to an average person, the only time it becomes a bit eye rolling for me is when they start throwing around phrases like "can't feed my family" or "slave mentality".

 

Anyone with a net worth of even $5M dollars has the option to live a modest life and never work again. If they choose to live above those means, that's totally their choice, but I certainly don't feel bad for the ones who manage to squander it all and end up as average persons themselves.

 

On that note, I wish all professional sports leagues were offering education on personal finance management and placing a heavy emphasis on it.

 

 

The feed my family one is particularly annoying. The other one can be absolutely infuriating depending on how it's used. There are times I actually understand the point they're trying to make(moreso in the NFL, but in sports in general). Not when it comes to them negotiating a contract and wanting more money.

 

And to be honest, I actually do feel bad for the ones who have a lot of money and end up squandering it. The Antoine Walker's. It depends on a multitude of factors, but there are a lot of players who just simply did not get the education needed to know how to invest, they don't understand the taxes and other extreme financial burdens that come with them, if you're a young kid, you often have a lot of adults taking advantage of you, not to mention a lot of friends. This happens even more in the black community if they're coming from poverty.

 

I realize logically, it's foolish for me to worry about athletes who had that much, but still, in my mind, having that much and losing it without having a college degree or a skill other than the sport you were good has to be really depressing.

 

Now, of course, these leagues have pension plans where you can start getting more than the average person gets in their pension plan if they've worked for 30 years in your 40's or you can wait and get a couple of hundred K a year if you wait for the normal age of retirement...

 

 

I agree with your last line very strongly and I know most leagues, the NFL for example, they do try to do that. And some agents are even better about it, but still, they can't control your money.