Dallas Keuchel

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm not pessimistic about getting a deal done with Kimbrel. At this point, I'd rather they don't.....

[clancyphile]

The Brewer's aren't exactly great in terms of outfield depth. What if Arcia hits nothing and Dubon turns out to not be a MLB player? Brewers really want Moustakas starting everyday at shortstop? What happens if Grandal takes a fastball off the wrist and is out for 12 weeks and Pena is hitting nothing?

 

Outside of a lack of lefty pitching, I kind of like the way the 40-man roster shapes up. Let's see what it looks like about a week into July. Would rather save the remaining funds until then.

 

Disagree on the outfield depth part.

 

Corey Ray, Tyrone Taylor, and Troy Stokes are in AAA, and all three of them are good.

 

My only beef is that the Crew isn't working Ray in enough at first in addition to the outfield - which could make him an upgrade over Thames in cost and defense.

 

While Ray had a good 2018, Stokes had a good 2017 and 2018. He's Khris Davis Lite with speed and the abilty to play defense.

 

Taylor re-emerged in 2018 after he got healthy. He's the biggest question mark of the three. If the Crew were to make a deal with the Giants for Will Smith, he'd be the guy I'd send.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers really could use a lefty in their rotation with big game experience. I like Woodruff and Burnes but either have the stuff to be high leverage relievers. They both have promise as starters but are likely to suffer growing pains getting through lineups multiple times.

[Brew crew 92]

Dream on

Crew not gonna spend what it would take to land Kuechel. Attanasio has a HARD CAP, trade deadline included.

[TURBO]

Dream on

Crew not gonna spend what it would take to land Kuechel. Attanasio has a HARD CAP, trade deadline included.

 

Got a link to that privileged information?

[Brew crew 92]

Dream on

Crew not gonna spend what it would take to land Kuechel. Attanasio has a HARD CAP, trade deadline included.

 

Got a link to that privileged information?

 

That’s what we’ve been told by Haudricourt. I’m done jousting with people on this site with regards to what I believe what crews payroll COULD be.

[TURBO]

Dream on

Crew not gonna spend what it would take to land Kuechel. Attanasio has a HARD CAP, trade deadline included.

 

Got a link to that privileged information?

 

That’s what we’ve been told by Haudricourt. I’m done jousting with people on this site with regards to what I believe what crews payroll COULD be.

 

What you believe and what you often state as fact are two totally different things.

 

I think it would be great if you were done arguing with people on this site. I can probably speak for everyone in saying that would be welcomed. You are typically a combative poster, which is why you irritate so many with your posting style. Apologizing, and fake politeness don't get you anywhere either.

 

Just chill out, state your beliefs as opinions rather than cold hard facts and things will go better for you here.

 

You are not a victim.

[SRB]

If they have money to sign Keuchel and are choosing not to, it's completely idiotic.

 

I'm optimistic about the longterm prospects of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, but it's very obvious that they are still young SP working through growing pains. You can't have the majority of your rotation be those type of guys when you are trying to contend NOW.

 

Yelich and Cain are still MVP-caliber players, we have Grandal and Moustakas for just one season, Braun is still formidable but not for much longer.

 

They NEED to stabilize the rotation.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Eh. Keuchel's looking for multiple years. Maybe 5 years. I want nothing to do with Keuchel on a 5 year deal. There's no indication at this point he's willing to take a one or even two year deal at this point. We've been down this road before, and I'm just not sure I want to the Brewers going 5 years with a 31 year old starter who's already got a declining K rate.

[brewmann04]

If its crazy for the brewers to do a 5 year deal and glad they are staying away. If he would do a one or two deal then i would hope they be in the mix.

[Zad Fnark]

On the Cards board, they're saying he's now looking for a 1 year deal.

[JosephC]

Rosenthal is reporting Keuchel will take a one year deal but is looking for more than the qualifying offer amount (17.9 million). Very much doubt the Brewers want to sink 20 million into him considering the budget is probably already pretty stretched.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would happily take 5 months of Keuchel (which is what you're going to get) at about 12-13 mil, but not 20 mil. He can say he's been throwing sim games of 95 pitches every 5 days (and I believe that) but that's still not the same as facing live hitting. I'm sure he's stretched out and ready to go, but he won't be ready to pitch until May if he signed tomorrow.

[Lathund]

Since we'd be giving up another draft pick, I would rather pay a somewhat lower AAV over 2-3 years than a higher one for 1 year. For me the worry about Keuchel hasn't been that he wouldn't produce this year or next, simply that the 5-6 years he was looking for was far too big a risk to take. I still prefer Keuchel over Kimbrel, with Woodruff/Burnes moving to the pen temporarily. I believe in them as starters, but I think that a LHP who can eat a lot of innings with above-average results helps us more than what Kimbrel does. In what he does himself, through the effect lineups might be different when our primarily RH relief corps come into the game, and through the lesser strain on the bullpen, meaning more flexibility and ability to deploy the high-leverage guys accordingly.

 

I don't really think either one is really on the radar though, unless the price drops substantially.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think recent comments from Brewers' brass about it being unlikely additional pitching help comes from outside the organization reflects well on Nelson's and Jeffress' progress toward rejoining the MLB team. They're going to roll with what they've got - at least for a few months - and then the 1st place on their roster that needs bolstering will likely be the bullpen. Keuchel isn't an option here, even on a 1 year deal. There was money out there for starting pitching in free agency, but he/Boras overplayed their hand and the huge market teams that typically gobble up veteran FA pitching chose other lefty starters (Colvin, Happ) early on.

[SandyTolan]

Prediction: Brewers sign Keuchel (or, less likely, Kimbrel) to a 2-year deal on June 6, the day after the draft ends. That's a lot of season in front of us - basically Keuchel would miss the first third, and another month maybe getting in real game shape. So, maybe they don't need him. But at this point I see both guys signing after the draft. Maybe 2/35 for Keuchel? (It would be more like 1.5/35.) I'm just spitballing, like everyone else.

[Yellin4Yelich]

I really want to see Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation this year. I think once they figure things out, they are going to be legit. The offense will allow us to go through some growing pains early in the season.

 

But part of me wouldn't mind seeing the brewers sign Keuchel (1 yr/18 mil) and then push Woodruff and Burnes back to the bullpen once Nelson is ready.

 

I really want to see Woodruff and Burnes get a shot at the rotation the entire year. But I wouldn't mind seeing this:

 

Rotation

Chacin

Keuchel

Nelson

Peralta

Davies

 

Bullpen

Jeffress

Hader

Woodruff

Burnes

Guerra

Claudio

Albers

Wilson (williams/barnes if they figure it out)

Chase

 

That bullpen would be legit

[Austin Tatious]

Keuchel is a nice pitcher who I like but I don’t see him as a $20M player at this stage.

[xisxisxis]

Keuchel has been pretty much the same pitcher the last 3 years (not the 2015 version). He's a 2.5 WAR pitcher who can hit 3.0 if he gets the innings, which he wouldn't at this point. So let's say he would put up a 2.5 WAR for the time he actually pitchers this year. That's what they're paying Chacin ~$7M to do. For a FA, the $/WAR has been running closer to $6-7M per WAR the last 2 years than the historical $10M per WAR. So he would be worth $15M-17.5M if he can be the recent Dallas Keuchel in performance. In a few weeks, that's what his prorated salary would be on a "more than the qualifying offer" salary. If his performance is impacted by his delayed start to the season (did any of last years SP that signed late match their expected performance/value based on their contract - I don't recall a single one doing that well). If we are having issues with the starting rotation that need to be addressed, they still have Anderson and Guerra in the Pen whom could be moved back to the rotation and they could bring either/both of Hauser and Brown up to bolster the bullpen like Woodruff and Burnes did last year (or they could bring up Brown for the rotation and move Burnes to the BP). I'm just not sold on the need to spend that money on Keuchel...

[igor67]

As attractive as opening the checkbook is sooner or later you need to manage some risks with developing younger pitchers to try and keep the team going for more than a couple of years. Much to xis's analysis if it was paying for a true top end guy instead of solid mid-rotation material it might be different.

[brewmann04]

I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS

[mtrebs]

I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS

 

I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!

 

Yeah with all the key guys that are going to walk after this season, the Brewers should be all-in and spare no expense. It's 2019 or bust!

 

Err wait....

[OnTheBlack]

I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS

 

I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!

 

 

And you base this on what? I'm genuinely curious.

 

The fact that Yelich is a FA after this year? Or that Shaw is? Or that we'll be losing Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson next year?

 

 

This idea that our window is closing is just fake. I can see the argument that we're close and were a game away from the WS last year, but that has nothing to do with the false narrative that our window is closing.

[OnTheBlack]

Prediction: Brewers sign Keuchel (or, less likely, Kimbrel) to a 2-year deal on June 6, the day after the draft ends. That's a lot of season in front of us - basically Keuchel would miss the first third, and another month maybe getting in real game shape. So, maybe they don't need him. But at this point I see both guys signing after the draft. Maybe 2/35 for Keuchel? (It would be more like 1.5/35.) I'm just spitballing, like everyone else.

 

 

 

At that point, I think that the chances either signs with the Brewers drops a lot. Before June 6th the Brewers are giving up a 4th round pick and other teams are giving up a 1st round pick.

 

After June 6th, nobody is giving up anything. This makes it less likely that the Brewers sign either once that deadline passes.