Dallas Keuchel

[brewmann04]

I would have done a 1 year deal or even a second year

[Brew crew 92]

Seeing lot's of "+1's" and "this" quotes lately. Just a reminder in the fan forum etiquette section that we want to steer away from these kinds of posts. Thanks

 

For example, messages that say nothing beyond "I agree," "Ditto," etc., add nothing to a discussion and are candidates to be hidden by moderators. Don't chime in on every thread just because you can; instead, pick your spots for posting, and add something back into the site. Less can be more.

I don't want to steer this too far off topic, but I wonder if someone could add this extension (or one similar) to the board: https://www.phpbb.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=456&t=2246576

 

I think there is value to being able to demonstrate that you agree with or like someone's post even if you don't have anything to add to it.

 

It’s me, I apologize, it won’t happen again.

[TURBO]

I think an agreement (like) button is LONG overdue.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think an agreement (like) button is LONG overdue.

 

Thirded, fourthed, or fifthed, whatever we're up to in agreeing on this idea.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If this is something people want, lets open a discussion on the proper forum

[brewerfan82]

Sorry, looks like I did steer things off topic! There's already a topic about this in the Brewerfan.net Issues & Events section of the site where discussion can continue:

 

viewtopic.php?f=73&t=33718&p=1199050#p1199050

[stalton]

So I made this (bad) joke to a friend earlier; but if the Brewers don't get Keuchel, I want the Astros to get him. That way Dallas goes to Houston.

[brewmann04]

I still wondering why he was not signed with any team yet.

[JosephC]

Best guess would be that Scott Boras is still insisting on something like a 4 year, 90 million dollar contract.

 

I've said in the Kimbrel thread and I'll say it in this one too. If there comes a point where both Keuchel and Kimbrel have to settle for 1 year, 18 million type deals, I'd much rather see the Brewers go with Keuchel. Barring injury, Keuchel would give the Brewers 100+ more innings and add a lefty to the rotation. Would give the Brewers the flexibility to bump either Woodruff or Burnes out of the rotation to give the team another plus-plus bullpen arm. And Burnes/Woodruff could be multi-inning relievers that could be used to cover 6th/7th or 7th/8th....or I'd have confidence in them to be a closer if necessary. Would give Counsell much more flexibility than getting a closer who would likely end up being locked in to 9th inning performances.

[Brew crew 92]

Best guess would be that Scott Boras is still insisting on something like a 4 year, 90 million dollar contract.

 

I've said in the Kimbrel thread and I'll say it in this one too. If there comes a point where both Keuchel and Kimbrel have to settle for 1 year, 18 million type deals, I'd much rather see the Brewers go with Keuchel. Barring injury, Keuchel would give the Brewers 100+ more innings and add a lefty to the rotation. Would give the Brewers the flexibility to bump either Woodruff or Burnes out of the rotation to give the team another plus-plus bullpen arm. And Burnes/Woodruff could be multi-inning relievers that could be used to cover 6th/7th or 7th/8th....or I'd have confidence in them to be a closer if necessary. Would give Counsell much more flexibility than getting a closer who would likely end up being locked in to 9th inning performances.

 

You make a good case here sir, only thing is if both had to settle for those terms I’d sign them both. Then I’d have a super pen and probably a Series.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If they had the choice of signing a upper end reliever or upper end starter to a similar contract, I'd take the starter 10 times out of 10. Like Joseph said, a Keuchel signing theoretically pushes a high-end arm like Woodruff or Burnes to a leverage pen spot, basically giving you two for the price of one. If the Brewers are truly breaking it down to pitchers who provide quality innings, a good Keuchel is going to give you at least double the innings. Even if he gives you an ERA in the low 3s, while Kimbrel gives you an ERA in the low- to mid-2s, Keuchel is still providing more value.

 

I don't think there's any chance they sign both. If it's a bidding war with the Braves for Kimbrel, the Braves can have him. I'll take the starter.

[Brew crew 92]

Best guess would be that Scott Boras is still insisting on something like a 4 year, 90 million dollar contract.

 

I've said in the Kimbrel thread and I'll say it in this one too. If there comes a point where both Keuchel and Kimbrel have to settle for 1 year, 18 million type deals, I'd much rather see the Brewers go with Keuchel. Barring injury, Keuchel would give the Brewers 100+ more innings and add a lefty to the rotation. Would give the Brewers the flexibility to bump either Woodruff or Burnes out of the rotation to give the team another plus-plus bullpen arm. And Burnes/Woodruff could be multi-inning relievers that could be used to cover 6th/7th or 7th/8th....or I'd have confidence in them to be a closer if necessary. Would give Counsell much more flexibility than getting a closer who would likely end up being locked in to 9th inning performances.

 

Can’t argue with this ^

I like Keuchel, lots a GB’s, durable, left handed and eats innings. Because of the down market prob value there, why not?

[HiAndTight]

If they had the choice of signing a upper end reliever or upper end starter to a similar contract, I'd take the starter 10 times out of 10. Like Joseph said, a Keuchel signing theoretically pushes a high-end arm like Woodruff or Burnes to a leverage pen spot, basically giving you two for the price of one. If the Brewers are truly breaking it down to pitchers who provide quality innings, a good Keuchel is going to give you at least double the innings. Even if he gives you an ERA in the low 3s, while Kimbrel gives you an ERA in the low- to mid-2s, Keuchel is still providing more value.

 

I don't think there's any chance they sign both. If it's a bidding war with the Braves for Kimbrel, the Braves can have him. I'll take the starter.

 

 

Yes, but that's assuming Kimbrel as a reliever is equal to or similar to Kuechel as a starter. I don't think that's the case. I think Kimbrel's been historically great. Kuechel is a soft tossing lefty who relies on GB's and does not dominante like Kimbrell. A more apt comp would be a Justin Verlander like starter vs a Kimbrell type reliever. I'd also take the starter in a more equal comp like that.

 

Also, I'd rather not burn another year of Corbin Burnes in the BP as I think a pitcher with his 4 pitch mix, mentality and velocity can be a upper tier starter that you're talking about. You're talking about how much better it is to have a starter...why waste a cheap, homegrown stud like Burnes in the BP?

 

Then you flip it around and look at how the Brewers succeeded last year, they were able to, especially at the end of the year, get whatever they could out of their starter, patch together the pen to get to the 9th or the last 4 outs because they had a dominant reliever down there in Knebel or Jeffress.

 

Of course you'd have be 100 pct conident you were getting a healthy and rested Kimbrel and make peace with the fact that you'd likely not see him until the middle of April.

 

 

 

Again, impossible to know, but we could have signed Ottavino for 2 years for what we'd likely have to pay Kimbrel....but, those are the breaks if you want to win a WS. Sometimes you have to overcome bad luck.

 

And maybe we'll get good luck. Maybe Knebel who's had some issue with his UCL since 2014 in Texas will be back by the ASB and Jeffress and his BP's go really well and he'll be back by mid-May.

 

I personally am not counting on either at all this year, but how nice would it be to be wrong on that.

[JackNicholson1974]

Is it fair to start questioning whether Keuchel and Kimbrel will play this year? I know it is a long season, and perhaps a starter or closer goes down soon or early, but even so, I would think that would only entice a team to pull the trigger on a one year deal - and I am sure there are already many one year deals out there for both of these guys.

 

What will change in the next week/month/season where a team will over pay in both dollars and years? I just dont see it happening. Are they prepared to both go full LeVeon Bell?

[OnTheBlack]

Is it fair to start questioning whether Keuchel and Kimbrel will play this year? I know it is a long season, and perhaps a starter or closer goes down soon or early, but even so, I would think that would only entice a team to pull the trigger on a one year deal - and I am sure there are already many one year deals out there for both of these guys.

 

What will change in the next week/month/season where a team will over pay in both dollars and years? I just dont see it happening. Are they prepared to both go full LeVeon Bell?

 

 

No, I don't think so. This has happened before in baseball. You have 6 months and 162 games. And if they both sit out a year, they're not going to come back next year and see a stronger FA market for them.

 

Le'Veon himself was an outlier, now take that it's much more common for this to happen in baseball than football and I don't think there's any chance, barring injury, both are't pitching in the big leagues this year and sooner rather than later.

[Roderick]

Is it fair to start questioning whether Keuchel and Kimbrel will play this year? I know it is a long season, and perhaps a starter or closer goes down soon or early, but even so, I would think that would only entice a team to pull the trigger on a one year deal - and I am sure there are already many one year deals out there for both of these guys.

 

What will change in the next week/month/season where a team will over pay in both dollars and years? I just dont see it happening. Are they prepared to both go full LeVeon Bell?

 

Lohse signed on March 25th. So we are still in the ballpark definitely for Boras clients.

[anglotiger]

What will change in the next week/month/season where a team will over pay in both dollars and years? I just dont see it happening. Are they prepared to both go full LeVeon Bell?

 

Le'Veon himself was an outlier, now take that it's much more common for this to happen in baseball than football and I don't think there's any chance, barring injury, both are't pitching in the big leagues this year and sooner rather than later.

 

If they learned anything from the Bell situation, they'll know how dumb that is. Whatever he says now, Bell lost - very badly. He alienated many of his former teammates, who felt he abandoned them, lost a year of a very good salary (even by NFL standards) - money that he will never recoup - and ended up signing a contract with a lousy team making a little less per year than he would have made with Pittsburgh had he re-signed with them, rather than the "QB money" that he thought that he was worth.

 

I can't see either of them making the same mistake. They'll play this year, even if it's only on a one-year deal, and try again later.

[JackNicholson1974]

Right, Right, I agree with all of this. But there have to offers out there right now. Maybe 2 years from some teams, maybe 1 year. What could possibly make those offers increase between now and the start of the season, or now and June, or now and the All-Star break? Even if there were an injury, or some player pitching ineffectively, it should only compel a team perhaps currently not in the mix for his services to offer a one year deal to fill the gap. Nothing that happens in-season is going to cause a team say, "wow, that injury hurts, lets give Keuchel 5 years and 120 million, even though we had no interest before" It might cause a team to say "here's a one year deal to help us today, or maybe even a two year deal since if Keuchel signs in June he may not be effective or ready until July.

 

Maybe Im just a rube and Scott Boras is the know-all, be-all, but I am not sure that once a season starts additional multi year offers will come rolling in.

[anglotiger]

Last year, Alex Cobb missed just about all of ST waiting for an offer - before getting a 4 year, $57M deal. He signed on March 20th.

 

They're probably looking at that precedent - although they are likely getting more nervous as the days tick by.

[HiAndTight]

If they learned anything from the Bell situation, they'll know how dumb that is. Whatever he says now, Bell lost - very badly. He alienated many of his former teammates, who felt he abandoned them, lost a year of a very good salary (even by NFL standards) - money that he will never recoup - and ended up signing a contract with a lousy team making a little less per year than he would have made with Pittsburgh had he re-signed with them, rather than the "QB money" that he thought that he was worth.

 

I can't see either of them making the same mistake. They'll play this year, even if it's only on a one-year deal, and try again later.

 

 

Those are pretty different situations though. Bell signing for what he did as early as he did was a little confusing, but the Steelers seem like a bit of a mess right now and while it was easy to point to Bell and Brown, the way the GM came out and talked about the rest of the team vs Big Ben, talking about how he has to get 52 "kids" on the same page...the problem in Pitt seems to rest on the QB's shoulders and GM's shoulders as much as anyone.

 

I also didn't hear anything negative coming out of the locker room about Bell. Maybe you did, but NFL players usually support the player in that type of scenario.

 

But the main difference is that Bell was under control whereas Kuechel doesn't have teammates to alienate. He's a FA. Who is there to feel alienated or abandoned? Those would be Astro's players and I doubt they're worried about him as loaded as they are.

[anglotiger]

If they learned anything from the Bell situation, they'll know how dumb that is. Whatever he says now, Bell lost - very badly. He alienated many of his former teammates, who felt he abandoned them, lost a year of a very good salary (even by NFL standards) - money that he will never recoup - and ended up signing a contract with a lousy team making a little less per year than he would have made with Pittsburgh had he re-signed with them, rather than the "QB money" that he thought that he was worth.

 

I can't see either of them making the same mistake. They'll play this year, even if it's only on a one-year deal, and try again later.

 

 

Those are pretty different situations though. Bell signing for what he did as early as he did was a little confusing, but the Steelers seem like a bit of a mess right now and while it was easy to point to Bell and Brown, the way the GM came out and talked about the rest of the team vs Big Ben, talking about how he has to get 52 "kids" on the same page...the problem in Pitt seems to rest on the QB's shoulders and GM's shoulders as much as anyone.

 

That was an observation, not a judgement - and I agree that the Steelers' dysfunction goes deeper than Bell and Brown.

 

I also didn't hear anything negative coming out of the locker room about Bell. Maybe you did, but NFL players usually support the player in that type of scenario.

 

I'm a little surprised by this. It was all over the press last September. Several were highly critical of him for holding out. A search of the Internet will come up with a pile of articles on the subject.

 

But the main difference is that Bell was under control whereas Kuechel doesn't have teammates to alienate. He's a FA. Who is there to feel alienated or abandoned? Those would be Astro's players and I doubt they're worried about him as loaded as they are.

 

The alienation comment was specifically about Bell's situation - how it turned out badly for him - but the observation about giving up an entire year's salary and being no better off after it is the commonality and shouldn't be dismissed because you disagree with one comment.

[HiAndTight]

If they learned anything from the Bell situation, they'll know how dumb that is. Whatever he says now, Bell lost - very badly. He alienated many of his former teammates, who felt he abandoned them, lost a year of a very good salary (even by NFL standards) - money that he will never recoup - and ended up signing a contract with a lousy team making a little less per year than he would have made with Pittsburgh had he re-signed with them, rather than the "QB money" that he thought that he was worth.

 

I can't see either of them making the same mistake. They'll play this year, even if it's only on a one-year deal, and try again later.

 

 

Those are pretty different situations though. Bell signing for what he did as early as he did was a little confusing, but the Steelers seem like a bit of a mess right now and while it was easy to point to Bell and Brown, the way the GM came out and talked about the rest of the team vs Big Ben, talking about how he has to get 52 "kids" on the same page...the problem in Pitt seems to rest on the QB's shoulders and GM's shoulders as much as anyone.

 

That was an observation, not a judgement - and I agree that the Steelers' dysfunction goes deeper than Bell and Brown.

 

I also didn't hear anything negative coming out of the locker room about Bell. Maybe you did, but NFL players usually support the player in that type of scenario.

 

I'm a little surprised by this. It was all over the press last September. Several were highly critical of him for holding out. A search of the Internet will come up with a pile of articles on the subject.

 

But the main difference is that Bell was under control whereas Kuechel doesn't have teammates to alienate. He's a FA. Who is there to feel alienated or abandoned? Those would be Astro's players and I doubt they're worried about him as loaded as they are.

 

The alienation comment was specifically about Bell's situation - how it turned out badly for him - but the observation about giving up an entire year's salary and being no better off after it is the commonality and shouldn't be dismissed because you disagree with one comment.

 

 

 

Well, I didn't follow it that closely. The last I'd seen was them publicly supporting him, and it sounds like they were until he didn't report in time for week 1, and it sounds like it was the same group, that had previously been supporting him. The only comments I've found were Reuben Fosters which seemed way out of line. He took to twitter to say that Bell's making 7 times what he's making and twice what Villenueva is making and they're the guys who "do it for him?" I think that's a little silly. Bell's an elite back game changing player who is one of the best recieving backs in a long time catching 80 a year and one of the best runners.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/9/6/17826802/leveon-bell-steelers-linemen-beef-tweets-contract-holdout-complicated

 

In any event, I had not heard that. You are correct. Though I did see tweets(one from AB in particular) supporting Bell. So just more of a dysfunctional locker room. Generally, players if they don't support the player holding out or trying to get a new contract done, they don't go public with it. It's an un-written rule in sports. You don't talk about someone else's money.

 

That said, you're correct, I missed Foster's comments(and the article suggests he was speaking for the rest of his OL).

 

 

 

The alienation comment was specifically about Bell's situation - how it turned out badly for him - but the observation about giving up an entire year's salary and being no better off after it is the commonality and shouldn't be dismissed because you disagree with one comment.

 

I didn't dismiss it. I just don't see any similarity to Bell. I'd say it's more similar to the countless players in his own sport who hold out up until and through spring training. Usually not as talented, but they owe no allegiance to anyone and they're unlikely to sit out the whole year. I also doubt they end up with less when they do sign(though possible like with Grandal assuming the reporting was true).

 

It does seem like it almost always hurts the pitchers. Offensive players can wait and get back into the flow rather quickly. Getting ready to pitch in the big leagues is entirely different and guys often struggle, at least early on like Holland did last year for the Cardinals.

 

But frankly I didn't really take that strong of a stance to your post either way. I agreed it didnt' end up helping Bell out. Bell and Pitt had been going back and forth for multiple years. I think they should have just paid him frankly and I think the franchise tag is unfair to the players(who only have themselves to blame, still, in such a violent sport, it's unfair) and I think Bell is so unique that he deserves a bigger deal than a guy like Gurley got....and even AFTER holding out and going to a team with 100 million in cap room he didn't get it. So I agreed with you there.

 

I just didn't see the correlation to the Baseball players. Sorry for the mis-understanding, but I didn't intend to sound dismissive.

 

 

 

Which does raise another point. Given that guys usually struggle when they sit out for a while, how long should we even consider these guys for? If you're waiting until the QO no longer applies, you're probably only going to get a good half a year of them with their arms built up and in peak in-season performance.

 

I've never been a big fan of Kuechel...I'd MUCH rather wait until next year when there is a great pitching class and only recently have I gotten on board the "overpay Kimbrel," board due to injuries to our two best right handed relievers.

[Brew crew 92]

If we could get this guy on pillow deal I’d do it. Move Burnes to bullpen for a month or two.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

If we could get this guy on pillow deal I’d do it. Move Burnes to bullpen for a month or two.

 

Need to get this Burnes to bullpen stuff out of your head. Besides a performance issue, he ain’t leaving the rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

If we could get this guy on pillow deal I’d do it. Move Burnes to bullpen for a month or two.

 

Need to get this Burnes to bullpen stuff out of your head. Besides a performance issue, he ain’t leaving the rotation.

 

I don’t want him to leave rotation cause like you I think he TOR. But relief help needed ASAP.