Dallas Keuchel

[Brew crew 92]

I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument. Isn't disagreeing that marked improvements to the team's perceived weaknesses won't make the team better pretty much pessimism?

 

Here we are and the Brewers have made most of these additions (outside of Keuchel) and yet Las Vegas is offering a line that is 7 or 8 games lower than last year's win total.

 

I am an optimist on Stearns so I'd probably bet over on that because the Brewers will generally find ways to overachieve.

 

However, the theory that, "we won 95 (or 96 if you count the tiebreaker) last year and added guys so we'll do even better" can be debunked by the fact that nobody at this very moment will make the sound investment of selling off all assets and putting $200k on the Brewers because it is so obvious.

 

The Brewers went 33-19 last year in 1 run games. They're built for that as I said, but make it still "good" at 29-23 and suddenly they're playing a playoff game just to get into the Wild Card.

 

Vegas off last 2 yrs by 10+ wins EACH year

Deep powerful line-up and better starting pitching lead to more non 1 run victories, like 24-10 in one run games

I’m not a gambling man, but if I was, at 7-1 odds I’d bet it all on a pennant

[Brew crew 92]

With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell

 

Reactionary signings can be a scary proposition. I'm all for stacking talent, though.

[Brew crew 92]

With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell

 

Reactionary signings can be a scary proposition. I'm all for stacking talent, though.

 

Yes they can but so is the Brewers first 60 games plus schedule!

This team needs to be firing on all cylinders opening day

[pacopete4]

Jeffress is a guy I totally expect to regress. Hopefully others are ready to go.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Anderson was a legit #2 in 2017, and Davies was a terrific #3. If you would have told me in spring of last year that Davies would miss most of the season, Anderson would lead the league in HRs given up, and Nelson wouldn't throw a pitch all year, I probably would have predicted the team to win 70 games. That's not even taking into account that Santana completely fell off the rails, Arcia couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag, and Thames severely regressed, as did Pina and Shaw for a big part of the year. The Brewers had plenty of problems in 2018, and they managed to overcome them. I expect them to have problems in 2019 as well, and I expect them to overcome those as well.

 

That's just the uncertainty of baseball though. It also kind of reinforces the point that people are making about things going right one year and changing the next. Nelson was hurt, but Anderson and Davies were probably just "career year" guys in 2017. Things don't all carry over. The fact that they could replace them is exactly what people mean when they say a lot of things went right. How often do we expect them to piece together a playoff supporting cast from rejects? How often do we expect Yelich and Cain to be arguably the two most valuable position players in the NL by WAR?

 

Very few people praise the front office more than I do, but they can't control things like injuries and slumps and payroll constraints career years not being sustainable. I think they're arguably the best in the business, but it's going to be hard to continue to be that good. Last year did have a bit of a magical quality to it, which was part of the fun, but there's no reason they should be presumed favorites over teams that are just as talented, if not more so. They didn't have nearly the unexpected bad performances and crucial injuries that the Cubs did, for example, and they were tied after 162 games.

[coolhandluke121]

Anyway, back to Keuchel. I think I'd like to have him. I like how people mentioned Lohse because that would be my comparison. Just an effective, professional pitcher who's likely to give you at least one good year, probably two, before he really starts to decline. The difference would be that the Brewers seem to have a more sustainable strategy for success, so they can justify an occasional splurge without worrying about decimating their depth due to payroll constraints.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I hear alot about 2019 regression on this board, How about who is going to overachieve?

 

We got nothing from Nelson, Chase or Davies and we added Moose for a full year and Grandal. what am I missing guys???? Or are we just eternally pessimists? Take a look at the Cubs off-season.

[brewmann04]

Anderson inability to keep pitches in the park is what causes me for concern.Davies needs to stay healthy and hopefully that will happen. But i always worry about pitching and that why i would like to add Dallas at this point for the right price.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hear alot about 2019 regression on this board, How about who is going to overachieve?

 

We got nothing from Nelson, Chase or Davies and we added Moose for a full year and Grandal. what am I missing guys???? Or are we just eternally pessimists? Take a look at the Cubs off-season.

 

Nailed it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Anderson was a legit #2 in 2017, and Davies was a terrific #3. If you would have told me in spring of last year that Davies would miss most of the season, Anderson would lead the league in HRs given up, and Nelson wouldn't throw a pitch all year, I probably would have predicted the team to win 70 games. That's not even taking into account that Santana completely fell off the rails, Arcia couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag, and Thames severely regressed, as did Pina and Shaw for a big part of the year. The Brewers had plenty of problems in 2018, and they managed to overcome them. I expect them to have problems in 2019 as well, and I expect them to overcome those as well.

 

That's just the uncertainty of baseball though. It also kind of reinforces the point that people are making about things going right one year and changing the next. Nelson was hurt, but Anderson and Davies were probably just "career year" guys in 2017. Things don't all carry over. The fact that they could replace them is exactly what people mean when they say a lot of things went right. How often do we expect them to piece together a playoff supporting cast from rejects? How often do we expect Yelich and Cain to be arguably the two most valuable position players in the NL by WAR?

 

Very few people praise the front office more than I do, but they can't control things like injuries and slumps and payroll constraints career years not being sustainable. I think they're arguably the best in the business, but it's going to be hard to continue to be that good. Last year did have a bit of a magical quality to it, which was part of the fun, but there's no reason they should be presumed favorites over teams that are just as talented, if not more so. They didn't have nearly the unexpected bad performances and crucial injuries that the Cubs did, for example, and they were tied after 162 games.

 

That's why projections and predicting final standings pretty much amount to a hill of beans. MLB players have 162 games to prove them wrong.

 

But it's March, and we still are three weeks out from meaningful baseball. Discussions like these serve as a time filler and get you fired up for actual baseball to start. Last year those of us who predicted the Brewers to be a playoff and NL Central title contender were pretty strongly opposed by those that saw that upstart 2017 team as an aberration. Well now this core has two years of solid play on the record, and the 2019 squad looks even better on paper. To me there's not many reasons not to be optimistic.

[3and2Fastball]

Cubs have an older pitching staff that is a year older, and might regress a lot

 

Brewers have a (generally) young pitching staff that with a year or two of experience under their belt can be reasonably expected to improve. Relief pitchers are volatile, so I don't know if we can expect the same production out of Jeffress/Hader/Knebel, although with all the depth in the organization, someone else might step up as a late innings star (my guess is Woodruff).

 

While there may be regression candidates, a full year of Moustakas at 2B & Grandal at C could obliterate the numbers that were put up in 2018 at those positions over the course of that season.

 

The Brewers look for real, although that doesn't guarantee anything. I'd still like to see them sign Keuchel. There is no such thing as too much pitching.

[brewmann04]

I agree with 3and 2 fastball last line Mark get something done with Scott and bring Dallas in.

[Brew crew 92]

Cubs have an older pitching staff that is a year older, and might regress a lot

 

Brewers have a (generally) young pitching staff that with a year or two of experience under their belt can be reasonably expected to improve. Relief pitchers are volatile, so I don't know if we can expect the same production out of Jeffress/Hader/Knebel, although with all the depth in the organization, someone else might step up as a late innings star (my guess is Woodruff).

 

While there may be regression candidates, a full year of Moustakas at 2B & Grandal at C could obliterate the numbers that were put up in 2018 at those positions over the course of that season.

 

The Brewers look for real, although that doesn't guarantee anything. I'd still like to see them sign Keuchel. There is no such thing as too much pitching.

 

+1

[pacopete4]

I hear alot about 2019 regression on this board, How about who is going to overachieve?

 

We got nothing from Nelson, Chase or Davies and we added Moose for a full year and Grandal. what am I missing guys???? Or are we just eternally pessimists? Take a look at the Cubs off-season.

 

Nailed it.

 

[brewmann04]

I think you find some regression as well overachievement from guys this season its only natural. we have to hope the overachievement out ways the regression. I am always in the group that you can never have enough pitching.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hear alot about 2019 regression on this board, How about who is going to overachieve?

 

We got nothing from Nelson, Chase or Davies and we added Moose for a full year and Grandal. what am I missing guys???? Or are we just eternally pessimists? Take a look at the Cubs off-season.

 

Nailed it.

 

 

Sorry, meant for that to be blue. Fixed.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers won the division in 2018, and the signings of Grandal and Moustakas only improve what was already a dangerous lineup. Yes they are in a tough division, but I don't see how the Brewers wouldn't already be considered the favorites. Signing a pitcher like Keuchel serves to shore up what is on paper already a strong rotation, plus he serves as a direct replacement for the team's only significant free agent loss, Miley.

 

Other teams got better too, and there's of course potential regression. The Cubs getting the real Kris Bryant back is going to be massive and can't be understated, and we barely edged out the Cubs. Plus, for all we know, maybe Maddon learned over the offseason how to not destroy a bullpen by mid-August.

 

Who says the Cubs aren't going to regress? Bryant may be healthier, but still has questions marks. Can Baez repeat his near-MVP performance? Both Lester and Hamels are old, and the wheels could fly off. Darvish is a huge question mark. And it's Maddon's MO to destroy his pen, so I doubt he learned anything.

 

I don't know how the Brewers can't be considered the favorites, until they prove otherwise.

 

You definitely don't need to tell me about Cubs regression. I'm all over it, and I hope we are both right. You can't just look at last years results, the moves we've made, and that's it. Look how much better the Cardinals and Reds got. And the Cubs do still have a ton of potential in their position players. Maybe Happ or Almora or Schwarber breaks out like Baez did this year. For me, it's just hard to call any team in the NL central a clear favorite. Odds of winning the division are probalby something like 30%, 25%, 25%, 15%, 5%. I think we all know who the 15 and 5 are...but which of the other 3 is the 30%? And regardless, it's hard to call 30% a clear favorite...they would barely be a favorite. I think it's that close right now.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You definitely don't need to tell me about Cubs regression. I'm all over it, and I hope we are both right. You can't just look at last years results, the moves we've made, and that's it. Look how much better the Cardinals and Reds got. And the Cubs do still have a ton of potential in their position players. Maybe Happ or Almora or Schwarber breaks out like Baez did this year. For me, it's just hard to call any team in the NL central a clear favorite. Odds of winning the division are probalby something like 30%, 25%, 25%, 15%, 5%. I think we all know who the 15 and 5 are...but which of the other 3 is the 30%? And regardless, it's hard to call 30% a clear favorite...they would barely be a favorite. I think it's that close right now.

 

Agree 100%. It looks like it's going to be an absolute dogfight on paper. The Brewers are no longer going to sneak up on anyone, either. The team is legit, and the rest of the NL knows it. I doubt the Cardinals and Reds would have made all the moves they did in the offseason if the Cubs would have strolled their way to an NL Central crown last year. Having both the Cubs and Brewers as legit title contenders caused them to make an attempt to step up their games. I guess it might be overly optimistic to call the Brewers the clear favorites. I think they are the favorites, but I guess all call them the murky favorites.

[pacopete4]

No matter who he signs with, these players are dumb for prolonging their approach to spring training.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No matter who he signs with, these players are dumb for prolonging their approach to spring training.

 

Agreed. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Keuchel and Kimbrel are sitting on multiple lucrative contract offers. It wouldn't surprise me if guys like Gio, James Shields, Adam Jones and Maldonado also have solid MLB offers. This idea of holding out late into Spring Training for every last dollar, especially for a pitcher, is pretty foolish in my opinion.

[pitchleague]

I saw today that Keuchel and the Astros are talking one- and two-year deals today. Bummer.

[KeithStone53151]

I saw today that Keuchel and the Astros are talking one- and two-year deals today. Bummer.

 

This seems like far and away the most likely result at this point, and probably a 1 year deal with a mutual option.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Cubs have an older pitching staff that is a year older, and might regress a lot

 

Brewers have a (generally) young pitching staff that with a year or two of experience under their belt can be reasonably expected to improve. Relief pitchers are volatile, so I don't know if we can expect the same production out of Jeffress/Hader/Knebel, although with all the depth in the organization, someone else might step up as a late innings star (my guess is Woodruff).

 

While there may be regression candidates, a full year of Moustakas at 2B & Grandal at C could obliterate the numbers that were put up in 2018 at those positions over the course of that season.

 

The Brewers look for real, although that doesn't guarantee anything. I'd still like to see them sign Keuchel. There is no such thing as too much pitching.

 

+1

 

 

Seeing lot's of "+1's" and "this" quotes lately. Just a reminder in the fan forum etiquette section that we want to steer away from these kinds of posts. Thanks

 

For example, messages that say nothing beyond "I agree," "Ditto," etc., add nothing to a discussion and are candidates to be hidden by moderators. Don't chime in on every thread just because you can; instead, pick your spots for posting, and add something back into the site. Less can be more.

[brewerfan82]

Seeing lot's of "+1's" and "this" quotes lately. Just a reminder in the fan forum etiquette section that we want to steer away from these kinds of posts. Thanks

 

For example, messages that say nothing beyond "I agree," "Ditto," etc., add nothing to a discussion and are candidates to be hidden by moderators. Don't chime in on every thread just because you can; instead, pick your spots for posting, and add something back into the site. Less can be more.

I don't want to steer this too far off topic, but I wonder if someone could add this extension (or one similar) to the board: https://www.phpbb.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=456&t=2246576

 

I think there is value to being able to demonstrate that you agree with or like someone's post even if you don't have anything to add to it.