Competitive window or This year’s draft talent??

[BrewersAA]

Do you think stearns offseason behavior is representative of the brewers current competitive window?

 

Or

 

Do we think stearns is taking an asset approach and views this upcoming June draft to be weak and therefore has been more willing to part with those assets for big league assets that help the team on the field and the competitiveness but in the event that the team underperforms could be used to attain other assets via trade?

 

I ask because with his approach it just seems odd that he would be trading draft picks and surrendering them even with us being so competitive.

 

Maybe it’s a combination of both... thoughts?

[homer]

Both. But I also think he feels draft picks outside the first round are heavily overvalued.

[KeithStone53151]

It makes sense to be willing to lose draft picks to better the MLB ballclub if you are in a competitive window. I guess the draft class could be a consideration, but it is probably much more trying to maximize our chances in this 3-4 year window he's built.

 

Frankly, I don't think a window has been defined yet. It's likely the window close when Yelich approaches free agency and Cain slows down, but that's still a long ways off and the Brewers could retool the minors enough in the next couple years to avoid going through a full rebuild in 3 years. At the moment, we don't have any albatross contracts on the books and generally a lot of flexibility to add players.

[Eye Black]

It seems like his guiding principle is adding value to the organization without a specific modus operandi for acquiring that talent/value.

 

To homer’s point I don’t think he values those specific draft picks as highly as some others do (myself included).

[82brewcrew82]

Both Keith and Homer make the point. It's not a binary choice anymore, at least not for this team. My guess is that they have pretty indisputable data that says the picks they gave up amount to little. In my mind, looking back at 2011 for instance, you could see the window quite clearly. You knew that core was going to erode and you pretty much knew when. I don't get that feeling here. I think this leadership would have been willing to trade a Fielder to sustain rather than let him walk for nothing. Time will tell but I think that because they are data driven the hard decisions become easier.

[homer]

It seems like his guiding principle is adding value to the organization without a specific modus operandi for acquiring that talent/value.

 

To homer’s point I don’t think he values those specific draft picks as highly as some others do (myself included).

 

I want to add that I am just guessing. I have no idea if that's the case or not but it seems like they are pretty quick to trade them away. It could be that they think they can trade for guys that are young but already have a year in a system in lieu of drafting them.

[SRB]

The pick we gave up for Grandal is so low as to be a complete non-factor when signing a player of Grandal's caliber.

 

I don't think the Claudio trade necessarily means that Stearns undervalues draft picks, but instead that many people on this forum are drastically undervaluing Claudio.

[xisxisxis]

Stearns & Co are probably looking at tools such as this one from Baseball Prospectus to determine the value of picks.

 

The Graph of surplus value vs draft pick says a lot:

 

[wntrtxn21]

The pick we gave up for Grandal is so low as to be a complete non-factor when signing a player of Grandal's caliber.

 

I don't think the Claudio trade necessarily means that Stearns undervalues draft picks, but instead that many people on this forum are drastically undervaluing Claudio.

 

It's hard not to undervalue Claudio the way he pitched in 2018. An incredible 91 hits allowed in only 68 IPs. A huge WHIP of 1.55. He can only pitch to LH hitters because righties hit .369/.404 against him. Doesn't strike out many and allows a lot of contact. He's basically a one hitter and out type pitcher that many teams can't afford to have in their pen.

[RollieTime]

I view it as using the unknown (draft picks) that are multiple years away from helping if they ever help at all, to help the big league club get the known commodity, which is a top 3 catcher in baseball right now. The Brewers will have 30+ other picks to find future help. Same thing with Claudio. He is under team control for multiple years and if you can trade a draft pick and get a known MLB contributor for a few years, you take it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This year's draft has been widely speculated to be low on impact high school talent, with its strength being depth in good high floor/moderate ceiling college hitters.

 

Translation: the draft class is probably poor

[sveumrules]

The pick we gave up for Grandal is so low as to be a complete non-factor when signing a player of Grandal's caliber.

 

I don't think the Claudio trade necessarily means that Stearns undervalues draft picks, but instead that many people on this forum are drastically undervaluing Claudio.

 

It's hard not to undervalue Claudio the way he pitched in 2018. An incredible 91 hits allowed in only 68 IPs. A huge WHIP of 1.55. He can only pitch to LH hitters because righties hit .369/.404 against him. Doesn't strike out many and allows a lot of contact. He's basically a one hitter and out type pitcher that many teams can't afford to have in their pen.

 

 

Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks...

 

IP (197) 22nd

BB/9 (1.73) 7th

HR/9 (0.41) 8th

GB% (63.7) 5th

ERA- (69) 34th

FIP- (70) 24th

rWAR (3.8) 33rd

fWAR (3.4) 24th

WPA (+4.42) 20th

 

Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls.

 

Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd.

 

Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons.

 

He also has more IP than games in each if the last three seasons, so I don't believe he will be a one hitter & out type pitcher.

[clancyphile]

Both Keith and Homer make the point. It's not a binary choice anymore, at least not for this team. My guess is that they have pretty indisputable data that says the picks they gave up amount to little. In my mind, looking back at 2011 for instance, you could see the window quite clearly. You knew that core was going to erode and you pretty much knew when. I don't get that feeling here. I think this leadership would have been willing to trade a Fielder to sustain rather than let him walk for nothing. Time will tell but I think that because they are data driven the hard decisions become easier.

 

I think their data is also helping them find good players later in the draft.

 

We're all excited about Clayton Andrews - a 17th round pick in 2018.

Quintin Torres-Costa, who looked ready to join the Crew this year before he needed a Tommy John - 35th round, 2015

Brent Suter, a solid part of the rotation until his Tommy John - 31st round pick 2012

Weston Wilson, looking like a replacement for Hernan Perez - 17th round, 2016

Jon Olczak, potential bullpen ace - 21st round, 2015

Scott Sunitsch, starting pitcher who did well in Wisconsin - 18th round, 2018

Conor Harbor, another good SP prospect - 16th round, 2015

Cooper Hummel, a very good C/OF prospect - 18th round, 2016

[DHonks]

Both Keith and Homer make the point. It's not a binary choice anymore, at least not for this team. My guess is that they have pretty indisputable data that says the picks they gave up amount to little. In my mind, looking back at 2011 for instance, you could see the window quite clearly. You knew that core was going to erode and you pretty much knew when. I don't get that feeling here. I think this leadership would have been willing to trade a Fielder to sustain rather than let him walk for nothing. Time will tell but I think that because they are data driven the hard decisions become easier.

 

I think their data is also helping them find good players later in the draft.

 

We're all excited about Clayton Andrews - a 17th round pick in 2018.

Quintin Torres-Costa, who looked ready to join the Crew this year before he needed a Tommy John - 35th round, 2015

Brent Suter, a solid part of the rotation until his Tommy John - 31st round pick 2012

Weston Wilson, looking like a replacement for Hernan Perez - 17th round, 2016

Jon Olczak, potential bullpen ace - 21st round, 2015

Scott Sunitsch, starting pitcher who did well in Wisconsin - 18th round, 2018

Conor Harbor, another good SP prospect - 16th round, 2015

Cooper Hummel, a very good C/OF prospect - 18th round, 2016

 

I know you like to move guys around like video games, but isn't that a bit optimistic? Perez plays solid at SS, 3b, 2b, and OF. Wilson is a 1b, 3b, corner OF.

[clancyphile]

Both Keith and Homer make the point. It's not a binary choice anymore, at least not for this team. My guess is that they have pretty indisputable data that says the picks they gave up amount to little. In my mind, looking back at 2011 for instance, you could see the window quite clearly. You knew that core was going to erode and you pretty much knew when. I don't get that feeling here. I think this leadership would have been willing to trade a Fielder to sustain rather than let him walk for nothing. Time will tell but I think that because they are data driven the hard decisions become easier.

 

I think their data is also helping them find good players later in the draft.

 

We're all excited about Clayton Andrews - a 17th round pick in 2018.

Quintin Torres-Costa, who looked ready to join the Crew this year before he needed a Tommy John - 35th round, 2015

Brent Suter, a solid part of the rotation until his Tommy John - 31st round pick 2012

Weston Wilson, looking like a replacement for Hernan Perez - 17th round, 2016

Jon Olczak, potential bullpen ace - 21st round, 2015

Scott Sunitsch, starting pitcher who did well in Wisconsin - 18th round, 2018

Conor Harbor, another good SP prospect - 16th round, 2015

Cooper Hummel, a very good C/OF prospect - 18th round, 2016

 

I know you like to move guys around like video games, but isn't that a bit optimistic? Perez plays solid at SS, 3b, 2b, and OF. Wilson is a 1b, 3b, corner OF.

 

In 2018, Wilson played 42 games at first, 26 at third, 25 in left field, 13 at second base, 9 in right field, and 2 at shortstop.

 

Over his pro career, Wilson's seen 100 games at third, 98 at first, 31 at second, 30 in left field, 14 in right field, 3 at shortstop, and one in center field. In no case is his fielding percentage below .944.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wilson001wes

[DHonks]

Fielding percentage can be ignored. In fairness, I didn't remember him logging that many games at 2nd. I remembered a few innings at SS.

[brewmann04]

their needs to be a fine line between the two and think DS holds onto the prospects he wants to keep to help build this team.

[IIAY]

The way I look at it is that he basically replaced the pick we gave up for Grandal by acquiring Adam Hill in the Broxton trade with the advantage of being able to see how Hill performed in his first half-year of professional ball. The so-called “lottery tickets” that DS always seems to be able to get in deals are just as if not more likely to be as successful as the players that we draft with the picks that were given up.

[clancyphile]

The way I look at it is that he basically replaced the pick we gave up for Grandal by acquiring Adam Hill in the Broxton trade with the advantage of being able to see how Hill performed in his first half-year of professional ball. The so-called “lottery tickets” that DS always seems to be able to get in deals are just as if not more likely to be as successful as the players that we draft with the picks that were given up.

 

Ditto for the Harvard pitcher acquired in the Santana trade as a replacement for the pick dealt in the Claudio trade.

[clancyphile]

Fielding percentage can be ignored. In fairness, I didn't remember him logging that many games at 2nd. I remembered a few innings at SS.

 

Weston's made starts at all three OF and all four IF positions, and rebounded to a .759 OPS between Biloxi and Carolina. Tack on an excellent stint at the AFL, and I think he is a future bench asset.

 

He's missing some mop-up time on the mound, so he's not a complete Perez replacement, but that can always be remedied.

[OnTheBlack]

Fielding percentage can be ignored. In fairness, I didn't remember him logging that many games at 2nd. I remembered a few innings at SS.

 

 

It can be ignored and it really should be ignored. Also, they move guys like Wilson all over the place in the minors because they don't really have a spot. This is a guy who posted an OPS about 70 points lower than Hernan has over the last three years in the big leagues, while he was in AA. I'm kinda hoping our aim is to improve upon Hernan, not look for another guy like him, just worse in every single way.

 

There were a couple guys on that list that were encouraging. But is that really all that different than when Melvin was here? Parra was a late round guy that looked like he could be a legitimate #2 starter, Gennett obviously was a great pick even before turning his big league career around in Cincy....

[OnTheBlack]

Do you think stearns offseason behavior is representative of the brewers current competitive window?

 

Or

 

Do we think stearns is taking an asset approach and views this upcoming June draft to be weak and therefore has been more willing to part with those assets for big league assets that help the team on the field and the competitiveness but in the event that the team underperforms could be used to attain other assets via trade?

 

I ask because with his approach it just seems odd that he would be trading draft picks and surrendering them even with us being so competitive.

 

Maybe it’s a combination of both... thoughts?

 

 

I would doubt any GM would take this approach to the draft in baseball. Perhaps in the other major sports, but you never have a clue how good a draft is going to be aside of course from the top. Baseball's draft is so much more of a crapshoot and when you hear a draft class is talented or not, it almost is exclusively talking about the elite talent, not the rest of the guys. So I wouldn't have moved the 39th pick....unless of course he had an idea he was going to sign Grandal. That move made the pick we were giving up another round later and taking even more of the value away from it.

[Humans Need Water]

Fielding percentage can be ignored. In fairness, I didn't remember him logging that many games at 2nd. I remembered a few innings at SS.

 

 

It can be ignored and it really should be ignored. Also, they move guys like Wilson all over the place in the minors because they don't really have a spot. This is a guy who posted an OPS about 70 points lower than Hernan has over the last three years in the big leagues, while he was in AA. I'm kinda hoping our aim is to improve upon Hernan, not look for another guy like him, just worse in every single way.

 

There were a couple guys on that list that were encouraging. But is that really all that different than when Melvin was here? Parra was a late round guy that looked like he could be a legitimate #2 starter, Gennett obviously was a great pick even before turning his big league career around in Cincy....

Completely false.

 

Fielding percentage is *literally* a number that defines how often a player makes a play based on the opportunity to actually make that play. How in the world does that *not* matter? But it doesn't factor in IQ, athleticism, footwork, range, arm strength, screwing up a DP but still managing to get 1 out, etc etc. Fielding percentage absolutely matters but it's only one part of a story. Just like BA is only one part of the story for how good one is offensively, but should never be the sole reasoning for who's successful and who isn't.

[SRB]

Completely false.

 

Fielding percentage is *literally* a number that defines how often a player makes a play based on the opportunity to actually make that play. How in the world does that *not* matter? But it doesn't factor in IQ, athleticism, footwork, range, arm strength, screwing up a DP but still managing to get 1 out, etc etc. Fielding percentage absolutely matters but it's only one part of a story. Just like BA is only one part of the story for how good one is offensively, but should never be the sole reasoning for who's successful and who isn't.

 

But fielding percentage is almost inversely accurate to a player's range. If you can get to a huge range of balls but miss incredibly difficult plays on the periphery, you'll have a worse fielding percentage. If you have the range of a rock but make solid throws you will have a 100% fielding percentage.

[Humans Need Water]

Completely false.

 

Fielding percentage is *literally* a number that defines how often a player makes a play based on the opportunity to actually make that play. How in the world does that *not* matter? But it doesn't factor in IQ, athleticism, footwork, range, arm strength, screwing up a DP but still managing to get 1 out, etc etc. Fielding percentage absolutely matters but it's only one part of a story. Just like BA is only one part of the story for how good one is offensively, but should never be the sole reasoning for who's successful and who isn't.

 

But fielding percentage is almost inversely accurate to a player's range. If you can get to a huge range of balls but miss incredibly difficult plays on the periphery, you'll have a worse fielding percentage. If you have the range of a rock but make solid throws you will have a 100% fielding percentage.

Players with great range who miss incredibly difficult plays will *not* have a worse fielding percentage because they're not being given an error for that play. Errors on given for when plays *should* be made. Just because Arcia has great range and gets to a ball doesn't mean he should still get the runner out. There are a lot of variables at play - the defenders starting position, how hard is the ball struck, defenders body position when fielding (diving, sliding, on knees, etc), throwing (off balance, side arm, jump throw, back foot set in ground, etc), arm strength, how fast is the runner, did the runner stumble out of the box or trip at any point slowing them down, etc. It's never *just* if you get to a ball it's an error.

 

Guys that get to more balls will have more opportunities to make a play but that doesn't mean they're getting an error if the play isn't made. *one* benefit of great range is simply keep the ball in the infield so runners don't take that extra base even though a play will never be made for an attempted out.