Corey Knebel Trade Value

[RollieTime]

Corey Knebel is going to make $5.125 million this season through arbitration with two additional years of control beyond this season. If Knebel pitches at an all-star level again this season, it is reasonable to expect him to get approximately $15-$18 million through arbitration his final two seasons combined before hitting the open market.

 

Knebel is a key contributor to our shutdown bullpen, but is it worth it for the Brewers to pay one bullpen guy around $7 million for the 2020 season?

 

With the contracts top free agent relievers are getting in the free agent market, moving a cheap controllable bullpen arm such as Knebel could fetch a reasonable haul. If the Brewers were to look at trading Knebel, would it be wise to trade him now since he has 3 years of control and is making a fairly reasonable $5 million this season? Should they wait and look to trade him next offseason when he’s more expensive, but with one less year of control?

 

I am curious on where people stand with Knebel in regards to what route the Brewers should go with him. Would you look to trade Knebel now, next offseason, or ride it out with him? Also, if we were to trade him now or next offseason, what could we expect for a return?

[homer]

I feel like Stearns would do something next off-season. Might depend on how some of the other guys perform though.

[Lathund]

I see no reason to trade him this offseason. We're looking to compete in 2019 and 2020 (And hopefully beyond) and I want him to be a part of that. Since an extension at a reasonable rate is probably unlikely, I'd look at a trade after 2020. If there's great demand and we're having a disappointing season I'd perhaps look at it at the deadline in 2020 or 2019 (It would really have to be a perfect storm for that to happen in 2019 though!).

 

The main reason I want to keep him around, which is also the same reason he would fetch a good haul even with just one year remaining: He's good. Like really, really good. He had a bad run wiht a lot of HRs (His HR/FB rate doubled from the last two years), but that's mainly noise. Apart from that, his underlying performance was as good as, if not better, than 2017.

 

Now things can change of course. If other relievers have breakout years then that could change things. We've just acquired a reliever with a high 90s fastball, a big curveball and control issues, perhaps the answer is there. Perhaps it isn't. Unless someone wants to give us the equivalent of the Chapman package (Which just isn't going to happen) I'll just stand pat for now.

[SRB]

I trust Knebel even more than I trust Hader, so I would have to be really blown away to deal him.

 

He wasn't fully healthy to start the season. Second half: 30.0 IP, 15.6 K/9, 1.76 FIP, 1.89 xFIP

[Oxy]

He's definitely a trade candidate for the right package. Selling high on a player at a position of strength is generally a good move--especially a reliever. I wouldn't give him away though, that's for sure.

[OnTheBlack]

He's definitely a trade candidate for the right package. Selling high on a player at a position of strength is generally a good move--especially a reliever. I wouldn't give him away though, that's for sure.

 

 

Generally I'd agree with you, but I don't think this is the time to think about that too seriously. Consider it depending on the return. You don't turn down something stupid, but I see no reason to look to trade someone as dominant as Knebel or as key to our late run while he's got 3 years left and when we're returning essentially the entire team that got within 1 game of the World Series last year and has since added the top C on the market and looks like it's bringing back a TOR pitching arm.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's definitely a trade candidate for the right package. Selling high on a player at a position of strength is generally a good move--especially a reliever. I wouldn't give him away though, that's for sure.

 

 

It's a position of strength but Knebel and Hader are at the top of the pyramid, and losing one or the other would have an effect that losing guys further down wouldn't.

[JosephC]

Someone should throw out a couple trade scenarios. Just interested to see how Knebel would be valued. 2016 was not a full MLB season for him, but he did have 50 1/3 major league innings in 2015, so is it fair to use the 2016 numbers to evaluate him?

 

2016: fWAR = 0.4 / bWAR = -0.2

2017: fWAR = 2.7 / bWAR = 3.7

2018: fWAR = 1.0 / bWAR = 0.3

Steamer projection for 2019 = 1.0

 

So there would be the Brewer side that would shoot for that top number...probably put a value on him of something like 2.5 WAR per season. On the other side, he's been an average 1.3 WAR pitcher over the last three years and is only projected at a 1.0 WAR player in 2019...which makes me believe that the vast majority of teams would consider top value for him in the 1.5 WAR per season range for the next three seasons.

[RollieTime]

Someone should throw out a couple trade scenarios. Just interested to see how Knebel would be valued. 2016 was not a full MLB season for him, but he did have 50 1/3 major league innings in 2015, so is it fair to use the 2016 numbers to evaluate him?

 

2016: fWAR = 0.4 / bWAR = -0.2

2017: fWAR = 2.7 / bWAR = 3.7

2018: fWAR = 1.0 / bWAR = 0.3

Steamer projection for 2019 = 1.0

 

So there would be the Brewer side that would shoot for that top number...probably put a value on him of something like 2.5 WAR per season. On the other side, he's been an average 1.3 WAR pitcher over the last three years and is only projected at a 1.0 WAR player in 2019...which makes me believe that the vast majority of teams would consider top value for him in the 1.5 WAR per season range for the next three seasons.

 

I’ll use the Mets since they are going for it and could use another bullpen arm.

 

Mets receive:

RP Corey Knebel

 

Brewers receive:

1B Peter Alonso

LHP David Peterson

3B Mark Vientos

RHP Junior Santos

[Eye Black]

Mets receive:

RP Corey Knebel

 

Brewers receive:

1B Peter Alonso

LHP David Peterson

3B Mark Vientos

RHP Junior Santos

It seems like they Mets have high hopes as well as clear future plans for Alonso, but I do think they would be willing to deal Jeff McNeil (and maybe one of those secondary pieces) for Corey Knebel.

[SRB]

Someone should throw out a couple trade scenarios. Just interested to see how Knebel would be valued. 2016 was not a full MLB season for him, but he did have 50 1/3 major league innings in 2015, so is it fair to use the 2016 numbers to evaluate him?

 

2016: fWAR = 0.4 / bWAR = -0.2

2017: fWAR = 2.7 / bWAR = 3.7

2018: fWAR = 1.0 / bWAR = 0.3

Steamer projection for 2019 = 1.0

 

So there would be the Brewer side that would shoot for that top number...probably put a value on him of something like 2.5 WAR per season. On the other side, he's been an average 1.3 WAR pitcher over the last three years and is only projected at a 1.0 WAR player in 2019...which makes me believe that the vast majority of teams would consider top value for him in the 1.5 WAR per season range for the next three seasons.

 

I don't think WAR works for relief pitchers. At all. Certainly not when assessing market value. (Compare what Jed Lowrie just got to what Zach Britton just got)

[Oxy]

He's definitely a trade candidate for the right package. Selling high on a player at a position of strength is generally a good move--especially a reliever. I wouldn't give him away though, that's for sure.

 

 

It's a position of strength but Knebel and Hader are at the top of the pyramid, and losing one or the other would have an effect that losing guys further down wouldn't.

 

And yet if trading one of them means we extend our window to contend for a WS from the next 2-3 years to the next 4-5 years it is definitely worth it. I get what others are saying though about holding onto him for 1 more year. We'll be losing Grandal after this year-- and Cain and Braun will be another year older, and we'll have a better idea of what to expect from Arcia, Hiura and Aguilar and our young pitchers. If those guys end up disappointing, we may have to do a little re-build around Yelich and Shaw. If those guys all step up to be better than average we'll just have to re-load a little.

 

In short, it would be a shame to give away Knebel or Hader when next year is kind of a mini-window to go for it. Still, I'd welcome an Eloy Jimenez or Gleybar Torres type of return.

[JosephC]

People need to remember that Knebel was so dominant last year that he got sent to the minor leagues at the end up August. Hard for me to believe the Brewers could get an offer like the Mets one that was suggested above. Chapman and Miller are relievers that can pull in a big haul, but Knebel doesn't have near the track record of those two guys.

[SRB]

People need to remember that Knebel was so dominant last year that he got sent to the minor leagues at the end up August. Hard for me to believe the Brewers could get an offer like the Mets one that was suggested above. Chapman and Miller are relievers that can pull in a big haul, but Knebel doesn't have near the track record of those two guys.

 

All the more reason not to trade him then. When Knebel is healthy he is one of the best relievers in franchise history, including the second half of last season.

[NievesNoNO]

I'd trade Knebel in the right deal. When that curve is working, he's almost unhittable. However, when it's not he doesn't have really anything else to get him through an inning.

 

I'd have to be overwhelmed to trade him on this team for this season. His stuff can dominate the league's best hitters. That's what you need in the playoffs.

[OnTheBlack]

Someone should throw out a couple trade scenarios. Just interested to see how Knebel would be valued. 2016 was not a full MLB season for him, but he did have 50 1/3 major league innings in 2015, so is it fair to use the 2016 numbers to evaluate him?

 

2016: fWAR = 0.4 / bWAR = -0.2

2017: fWAR = 2.7 / bWAR = 3.7

2018: fWAR = 1.0 / bWAR = 0.3

Steamer projection for 2019 = 1.0

 

So there would be the Brewer side that would shoot for that top number...probably put a value on him of something like 2.5 WAR per season. On the other side, he's been an average 1.3 WAR pitcher over the last three years and is only projected at a 1.0 WAR player in 2019...which makes me believe that the vast majority of teams would consider top value for him in the 1.5 WAR per season range for the next three seasons.

 

 

It's a well reasoned argument, but I don't believe for a second that teams would value him that lowly. Not with his stuff and how dominant he was for us down the stretch last year and in the playoffs.

 

I think he'd be treated like a 2nd tier closer and with 3 years of team control, I think you'd have 29 teams interested. I also would be surprised if teams are looking to value players quite like this. I think it's a great barometer to compare guys, but I don't think GM's are using WAR to ensure they get equal value in return.

[And That]

I don't think WAR works for relief pitchers. At all. Certainly not when assessing market value. (Compare what Jed Lowrie just got to what Zach Britton just got)

Not that it doesn't work but on the open market, teams tend to pay 2-3x for WAR for relief pitchers versus what they pay for starting pitchers. This has been a persistent trend for quite a long while now. So when valuing a trade, you have to consider open mark deviation between the two types of pitchers. Teams will pay for more relievers, as a general rule.