2019 Prediction Time: Out of Nowhere Stars

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

While things have picked up recently interest-wise with the Brewers, the offseason is still a long, slow time. So in there interest of fun, I want everyone to try listing one or two players on the Brewers who come out of nowhere (ala Wade Miley) to put up career year numbers that will help the team to the 2019 World Series. I have two that I've been thinking about.

 

1. Junior Guerra - I don't think his terrific numbers when moved to the pen in 2018 are a joke. He's going to be a stud back there. His stuff is going to play great in short stretches, and I believe he's going to be a lock-down multi-inning reliever to the tune of a sub-2 ERA.

 

2. Tyrone Taylor - Braun is going to miss time. We all know that. I think Taylor perhaps starts the year in AAA, but will be up with the big club soon enough, and will provide a solid OF option that can slide in at all 3 OF positions. I think his upside is as a 20-25 HR bat with a .275 average and 20-25 SBs. He's going to be a fun guy to follow.

 

Bonus: Whoever is signed to play 2B - Whether it's Harrison, Gonzalez, Dietrich, or they just give the job predominantly to Spangenberg/Perez, I expect above average production from this spot next year.

[SRB]

I don't think Bobby Wahl is even going to start the season with the MLB club, but I think by the end of the season he's going to be right up there in the elite end-of-game squad with Hader/Knebel/Jeffress.

[clancyphile]

1. Corey Spangenberg - I think he will prove to be a very versatile contributor in the infield, and there will be more than one time where he will be involved in a walk-off win, either as a baserunner or batter. I expect Miller Park's friendliness to left-handed power hitters to help him, too.

 

2. Bobby Wahl - He's racked up a LOT of strikeouts in the minors, and by the end of the season, he could be celebrated as the guy who punched out batters in key moments.

 

3. Alex Claudio - He'll become a Hader-lite - known more for inducing grounders than punching out hitters.

 

4. Corbin Burnes - I know we all know he's good, but I think he breaks out as an ace this year. I put him at the top of my Top 25 in three straight polls, and he was barely edged out by Cameron Roegner in the Mid-Season 2018 poll.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not really out of nowhere considering his 2017, but the shoulder injury has basically rendered Jimmy Nelson an afterthought - I think he's going to have a great 2019 and be the rotation anchor that can consistently be relied upon to get 6+IP, 18+outs, whatever the heck you want to gauge from a starting pitcher, and he'll allow for the bullpen-heavy approach to be even more effective by giving relievers rest days every 5 games when he takes the bump.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Not really out of nowhere considering his 2017, but the shoulder injury has basically rendered Jimmy Nelson an afterthought - I think he's going to have a great 2019 and be the rotation anchor that can consistently be relied upon to get 6+IP, 18+outs, whatever the heck you want to gauge from a starting pitcher, and he'll allow for the bullpen-heavy approach to be even more effective by giving relievers rest days every 5 games when he takes the bump.

 

Man I hope you are right. I am very worried that Jimmy will never be near the guy he once was, based on little other than years of being a pessimistic Brewers fan. No one nationally talks about it, but if Jimmy comes back to his 2017 form, and Burnes is what we think he might be, all of a sudden the one weakness everyone wants to talk about on this team becomes a legit strength.

[Eye Black]

I think Troy Stokes, Jr. is going to be a sneaky good roster addition in September. He has some serious pull side pop in his bat and will add some speed on the basepaths.

[xisxisxis]

Chase Anderson. While everyone has written him off, he didn't have a horrible 2018, he just had a problem starting games out effectively. His wOBA for 2017 and 2018 based on time through the order:

 

[pre]Order 2017 2018

1st .275 .328

2nd .276 .280[/pre]

From the game logs its clear that Chase often gave up a crooked number in the first. His wOBA splits for 1st and 2nd time through the order support that he was effectively the same pitcher in 2018 the 2nd time through the order as when he pitched in 2017. I think he makes a significant improvement this year and he will be the Brewers best starter with a WAR over 3...

[Lathund]

Not really out of nowhere considering his 2017, but the shoulder injury has basically rendered Jimmy Nelson an afterthought - I think he's going to have a great 2019 and be the rotation anchor that can consistently be relied upon to get 6+IP, 18+outs, whatever the heck you want to gauge from a starting pitcher, and he'll allow for the bullpen-heavy approach to be even more effective by giving relievers rest days every 5 games when he takes the bump.

 

Man I hope you are right. I am very worried that Jimmy will never be near the guy he once was, based on little other than years of being a pessimistic Brewers fan. No one nationally talks about it, but if Jimmy comes back to his 2017 form, and Burnes is what we think he might be, all of a sudden the one weakness everyone wants to talk about on this team becomes a legit strength.

 

Just read this, figured it might be of interest if you do want to see at least someone outside the Brewers sphere talking about it

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-biggest-injury-wild-card-for-2019/

[MVP2110]

Chase Anderson. While everyone has written him off, he didn't have a horrible 2018, he just had a problem starting games out effectively. His wOBA for 2017 and 2018 based on time through the order:

 

[pre]Order 2017 2018

1st .275 .328

2nd .276 .280[/pre]

From the game logs its clear that Chase often gave up a crooked number in the first. His wOBA splits for 1st and 2nd time through the order support that he was effectively the same pitcher in 2018 the 2nd time through the order as when he pitched in 2017. I think he makes a significant improvement this year and he will be the Brewers best starter with a WAR over 3...

 

Similar to you I'll go with Zach Davies. He was a legit stud for us for two years before he got hurt last year.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Bat - Hiura. When he arrives, be it late May or early June, I've been on record as him being our 3rd best bat from that point on in 2019. I'm gonna bump that up to 2nd best behind Yelich. Given there are some saying he might not even be ready for the majors in 2019 and with Steamer projecting a .697 OPS, I'd say that qualifies him for having "out of nowhere stars " potential. His 2019 OPS will push .900

 

Arm - Peralta. By the end of 2019 he'll be looked upon as the team's top initial out getter.

[BuckyBrewer61]

 

Just read this, figured it might be of interest if you do want to see at least someone outside the Brewers sphere talking about it

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-biggest-injury-wild-card-for-2019/

 

Stop ruining my small market fan, we get no attention/respect narrative!

[3and2Fastball]

Ben Gamel .300/.400/.520 hitter, lots of highlight reel defensive plays & clutch hits ... Gritty hustle Miller Park favorite guy

 

Arguments ensue on Brewerfan.net as to whether we should extend Gamel... Comparisons to Brady Clark & Bill Hall are made. Big brother Mat Gamel throws out the first pitch at a late season game. Brewers front office scrambles to try to have a Ben Gamel Bobblehead Day

[NievesNoNO]

Chase Anderson for me as well. He was a bit unlucky and seemingly had his worst moments down the stretch and the team lost confidence in him. Maybe he lost some confidence in himself as well.

 

Woodruff- I'm not sure what his role is going to be but he's going to be good at it. Things really looked like the came together for him late in the season and playoffs.

 

Thames- I think he stays on the roster and offers production both in the 1st and 2nd halves. He has his worts but he can still be a valuable piece. I think he gets enough AB's to deliver 20 HRs coming in some big moments

[wntrtxn21]

Chase Anderson for me as well. He was a bit unlucky and seemingly had his worst moments down the stretch and the team lost confidence in him. Maybe he lost some confidence in himself as well.

 

Woodruff- I'm not sure what his role is going to be but he's going to be good at it. Things really looked like the came together for him late in the season and playoffs.

 

Thames- I think he stays on the roster and offers production both in the 1st and 2nd halves. He has his worts but he can still be a valuable piece. I think he gets enough AB's to deliver 20 HRs coming in some big moments

 

 

 

I don't see the same Thames as you do. He fails to even put a ball in play once in every 3 ABs, usually in crucial situations. He is an instant out against LH pitchers and a butcher in the OF. He hits HRs every now and then, but his whiffs are overwhelming.

[clancyphile]

I think Troy Stokes, Jr. is going to be a sneaky good roster addition in September. He has some serious pull side pop in his bat and will add some speed on the basepaths.

 

Stokes has been someone I've been high on for a while. The guy can draw walks. He first looked like another coming of Brady Clark, with doubles power, OBP skills, and some speed, but the power boost in 2017 - and which repeated in 2018 has me wondering if he isn't a poor man's Christian Yelich.

[SRB]

I don't see the same Thames as you do. He fails to even put a ball in play once in every 3 ABs, usually in crucial situations. He is an instant out against LH pitchers and a butcher in the OF. He hits HRs every now and then, but his whiffs are overwhelming.

 

Did you not see him when he was absolutely white hot for significant stretches in 2018 and 2017?

 

He's not that good, but I think there's a lot of recency bias where people are remembering his poor end to 2018 (probably due to injury/sporadic playing time).

[NYChez]

I think Troy Stokes, Jr. is going to be a sneaky good roster addition in September. He has some serious pull side pop in his bat and will add some speed on the basepaths.

 

Stokes has been someone I've been high on for a while. The guy can draw walks. He first looked like another coming of Brady Clark, with doubles power, OBP skills, and some speed, but the power boost in 2017 - and which repeated in 2018 has me wondering if he isn't a poor man's Christian Yelich.

 

Question I have about Stokes and Ray: if they are unable to hit above .250 and are unable to keep their Ks under 140 at AAA, will they ever be given a shot at a role in Milwaukee? Also, if Tyrone Taylor is inferior to those two in every area, except he Ks at half the rate of Stokes and Ray, where does that place him in Stearns' pecking order?

[BallFour]

I just wanted to say after reading this thread that the front office really has built a team on depth I could see anyone of these guys helping out the team in 2019. Manipulating the 40 man roster and jettisoning guys with minor league options who aren't being effective for a hot hand squeezed out a couple wins for us last year and we will need it again.

 

My personal favorites are:

 

Tyrone Taylor-A guy who got lost in the prospect shuffle long ago but a guy who I think can help the MLB team if called upon by playing all 3 outfield positions adequately. May not be Keon Broxton with the glove but I think he may be a better put the ball in play option.

 

Junior Guerra-I think the fastball splitter combo will get the job done being a bridge guy.

[Eye Black]

Question I have about Stokes and Ray: if they are unable to hit above .250 and are unable to keep their Ks under 140 at AAA, will they ever be given a shot at a role in Milwaukee? Also, if Tyrone Taylor is inferior to those two in every area, except he Ks at half the rate of Stokes and Ray, where does that place him in Stearns' pecking order?

Troy Stokes strikeout rate did climb this past season. I was a little surprised because historically he has produced an acceptable K%. I do think he has a better chance than Ray to keep the strikeouts down as he develops (Stokes is also 1.5 years younger than Ray while playing at the same level). The biggest knocks on Stokes game are that he is really pull side heavy and he is likely a LF only defensive profile (well below average arm). Still, he has an impressive ability to barrel the ball squarely when he makes contact, and he has above average power for someone so small.

 

It is far from a perfect comparison, but there are some similarities to the early development profile of Khris Davis (who was a college draftee, so Davis was actually at low-A in his age 22 season whereas Stokes was at AA). He may never even become an MLB regular, but I would happily bet on Stokes floor being a productive 4th outfielder at the MLB level.

[dlk9s]

Mitchell Friedman

[JohnBriggs12]

Not out of nowhere (he was a top 10 overall prospect for more than just defense), but considering that much has been written by national media types that the Brewers need to have a backup plan at SS, I predict that Arcia is ready to emerge as an all around top shortstop and be a key offensive weapon.

[82brewcrew82]

Ray is a superior athlete to Stokes in just about every way. I'll put my money on the superior athlete to make the necessary adjustments every time. The spike in K rate for Stokes was most likely the result of selling out to maintain his power output which is fine. There are plenty of available scouting reports to confirm his power is basically only pull side and that his arm is almost unplayable. Stokes may have a slightly higher floor but Ray has a much higher ceiling. I'll go with Ray.

 

When the inevitable happens and we need another OF, I Predict Ray will be the guy and show that potential.

[Eye Black]

When the inevitable happens and we need another OF, I Predict Ray will be the guy and show that potential.

Maybe, but for 2019 specifically I think Stokes (already on the 40 man roster) has a lot better chance of logging major league innings (at the very least by September). I also tend to think Corey Ray is going to get traded at somepoint between now and July, but I guess we’ll see.

[brewcrewdue80]

Braun is due for that gritty vet, he still has it comeback season. .300/.360/525 over 25HRs. Less pressure on him while having far more bats now with lower K rates.

[RollieTime]

Braun is due for that gritty vet, he still has it comeback season. .300/.360/525 over 25HRs. Less pressure on him while having far more bats now with lower K rates.

 

Nice pick. He is one that I think could surprise a lot of people this season. I see Burnes having a breakout season this year. We saw how good he could be last season, but I think he is legit and will build off of his successful 2018 with a huge season in 2019. He has ace potential and will be an anchor in our rotation for another 6 years.