How much money do the Brewers have left to spend?

[BillScottCanRake]

I imagine the next TV deal is still going to be limited because the market being served is limited as well. I also think it is more likely to be based on viewership over the life of the last contract as opposed to last year, so I think the increases over normal growth due to inflation and the like may be less than we might think.

 

Hopefully I am wrong. It sure would be nice to get a big spike in revenue over what was expected.

[Roderick]

Regarding the TV deal. Here is what it appears the Rays got.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/26/rays-reportedly-close-to-rich-new-tv-deal-worth-an-average-of-82m-annually/

 

The new pact reportedly would run for 15 years, starting in 2019, with an increase from this season's $35 million to $50 million in the first year, and then escalate from there through 2033, averaging $82 million per year.

 

Here is a Pirate TV deal article from July.

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/are-the-pirates-truly-in-trouble-in-upcoming-tv-deal-negotiations/

 

Would a guess that the Brewer deal will be 70% of the Rays deal be in the neighborhood? The Tampa/St. Pete TV market is bigger. Plus I don't trust that we have a lot of leverage as who would compete against FSN for the rights? You'd have to put together your own TV and then sell it to Charter, Dish, DirecTV, etc and round up your own advertisers.

[RollieTime]

You forget that all teams have net operating costs too. Coaches salaries are not included in payroll. Cost of running Miller Park, travel costs, hotel costs, insurance costs, doctors, trainers, club house personal, etc.... All these and many more add up quickly and all come off the bottom line and affect net profits.

 

The initial numbers Rollie used were from Forbes estimates. They estimated the Brewers operating income at $67 million, and that number includes player salaries, coach salaries, hotels, doctors, trainers etc...pretty much everything aside from depreciation, taxes, other below the line costs. Beyond that, he's making quite a few assumptions...but he seems to be trying to take into account other costs than salaries. I'll add that $150 million is probably the number that makes sense to me as well as roughly a break-even point...assuming the team makes the playoffs.

 

The operating income added to the payroll is probably the most accurate way to determine the breakeven point with what is known publicly. Once you figure out the breakeven point, you can figure out how much they can spend on payroll. I don’t think that it’s exactly assuming the numbers, just finding all the numbers and plugging them in to get a general idea of where the breakeven point is to determine a realistic expectation for the payroll. The 2017 numbers from Forbes will be accurate within a few million.

 

Either way, they probably break even in the $135-$145 million range for payroll, not including the playoffs. Of course, Mark can always go higher than that if he decides to, but would be running the risk of taking a loss on the year if they don’t make the playoffs.

[Bob Skube Snacks]

As a Brewers fan since 1978, I theorize that between 1984 and 2007 I was conditioned into believing that payroll restraints have always kept the team from competing. After 40 years of Brewer fandom, however; I finally realized that I don't care how much the team owners make. I just want the team to win the World Series while I'm alive.

 

Go Brewers.

 

 

I can certainly see that in the Brewers in the 90's on, but in the 80's the Brewers payroll's were competitive with almost every team in baseball. I know they had the highest payroll at one point and I believe Yount signed a record setting contract when he was a FA after the '89 season outbidding some of the big spenders. They also spent a lot of money on guys like Higura, Stubbs and others.

 

I tend to view Molitor leaving as the period when the Brewers started losing players because of money. I don't remember the details, but I think they actually offered him a pretty big pay cut as a free agent coming off a monster season. This was also when Bando came in and Selig was an absentee owner while serving as acting commish.

 

 

https://shepherdexpress.com/sports/brew-crew-confidential/messy-divorce-brewers-paul-molitor/

 

I found this article while trying to remember the circumstances. It looks even worse than I remembered with Molitor...and it really shows how lucky we are to have a real GM and not Sal Bando.

 

I’m not typically a conspiracist, but I’ve always thought Bud Selig suddenly got a lot more skinflint than he needed to be around the time he became commish to use the Brewers as the poster child for small-market lack of competitiveness back in the labor wars of the 90s/early 2000s. (And also to get Miller Park built so the Brewers could “be competitive”.)

 

The Brewers were his salary cap guinea pig. I was like many fans of the era and fell for it, but the truth was he was just cheap and using the Brewers to foster an agenda. Attanasio has proven you can win here without a salary cap, some smarts, and some well-timed ambition.

 

Now by the mid-2000s, when the super-rich began buying up clubs? That’s when the Seligs were truly out of their depth financially and they sold at the right time.

[MrTPlush]

You'd have to put together your own TV and then sell it to Charter, Dish, DirecTV, etc and round up your own advertisers.

 

I could place those calls in a few minutes. Hupy and Abraham and maybe a few others. That is all we have now. haha

[Roderick]

You'd have to put together your own TV and then sell it to Charter, Dish, DirecTV, etc and round up your own advertisers.

 

I could place those calls in a few minutes. Hupy and Abraham and maybe a few others. That is all we have now. haha

 

Same as the first year of BTN, when it was Ro*Tel ads on every commercial break.

[owbc]

I’m not typically a conspiracist, but I’ve always thought Bud Selig suddenly got a lot more skinflint than he needed to be around the time he became commish to use the Brewers as the poster child for small-market lack of competitiveness back in the labor wars of the 90s/early 2000s. (And also to get Miller Park built so the Brewers could “be competitive”.)

 

The Brewers were his salary cap guinea pig. I was like many fans of the era and fell for it, but the truth was he was just cheap and using the Brewers to foster an agenda. Attanasio has proven you can win here without a salary cap, some smarts, and some well-timed ambition.

 

Now by the mid-2000s, when the super-rich began buying up clubs? That’s when the Seligs were truly out of their depth financially and they sold at the right time.

 

Yes, Bud Selig was far more politically savvy than most people give him credit for--I have no doubt that he preferred to be the fall guy for some of his more unpopular policies and it was part of what made him so respected by the owners. Owners face considerably more scrutiny these days without Selig around to be a scapegoat for all of baseball's problems.

 

It's clear the Brewers were not making money at County Stadium in the 90s, but they didn't have that excuse when things fell apart in 2002-2003. Rock bottom was probably when Ulice Payne quit after being told to sell a $30 million payroll to the public. The Seligs had no choice but to sell after that gigantic blunder, although they certainly pocketed extra cash in the process.

 

To be fair to Selig though--right around that time is when MLB Advanced Media was relaunched with an equal 30-way revenue split. That proved to be a very forward-thinking decision. He also successfully got the luxury tax strengthened in 2002 which eventually helped slow the Yankees' exponentially increasing payroll. He should get credit for pushing through several successful CBAs with major reforms. It's unlikely that the next round of reforms will come as smoothly.

[Eye Black]

Came across these updated Cots payroll projections sorted by change from 2018 to 2019 (lowest to highest) on Twitter.

 

There’s plenty of off-season to go, but the Brewers currently rank as the third highest payroll increase from last year. [sarcasm]The good news is they are still $72.5 million below the luxury tax cap![/sarcasm]

 

[KeithStone53151]

This type of tweet is a bad look for owners/GM's. Revenues should not be increasing while player salaries are decreasing. I get that quite a few big contracts will still be signed, but it's hard to imagine overall player salaries not decreasing from 2018 to 2019 a this point...based on those numbers.

[tigerbrew]

I don't believe that the Brewers payroll is tight, they just want to spend wisely. With all the low payroll teams that the Brewers rolled out during the rebuilding stage, they should've save enough money to build a decent warchest for a WS run now that the Brewers are contenders.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There’s plenty of off-season to go, but the Brewers currently rank as the third highest payroll increase from last year.

 

In other words, the Brewers have been one of the most aggressive teams adding payroll the last 2 years. Yet come December / January next year we'll still have our annual hand-wringing here about Mark A being too cheap and David Stearns being too conservative. Looking forward to it.

[KeithStone53151]

It's hilarious to me that the Cubs are one of the biggest adders of payroll, yet they didn't really improve their team at all from the outside. They exercised Hamels option and paid for some steep increases. Those increases only get steeper next year as Bryant/Baez move up in arbitration. They definitely have a ton of bounceback candidates and one bounceback certainty(Bryant), but those are probably offset by older guys that are growing less and less likely to maintain performance. It would be tough to argue that the Cubs look better on paper now than they did at the start of 2018...meanwhile 3 divisional teams have gotten a lot better.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't believe that the Brewers payroll is tight, they just want to spend wisely. With all the low payroll teams that the Brewers rolled out during the rebuilding stage, they should've save enough money to build a decent warchest for a WS run now that the Brewers are contenders.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head with this comment. While I don't think there are payroll constraints, per se, the Brewers and and the term "stupid money" are never going to be in the same sentence. That's just not the way this team is going to operate with the leadership structure currently in place. That doesn't mean that they are going to let money stand in the way of acquiring a player who they view as an instant, substantial upgrade, though, as long as the value is justified. Obviously a player like Harper is an upgrade on what they are bound to have in the corner OF this year opposite Yelich, but the value isn't high enough to offset the $30 million+ per year it's likely to cost.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

There’s plenty of off-season to go, but the Brewers currently rank as the third highest payroll increase from last year.

 

In other words, the Brewers have been one of the most aggressive teams adding payroll the last 2 years. Yet come December / January next year we'll still have our annual hand-wringing here about Mark A being too cheap and David Stearns being too conservative. Looking forward to it.

 

Never fails...every year.

[xisxisxis]

There’s plenty of off-season to go, but the Brewers currently rank as the third highest payroll increase from last year.

Yep, plenty of off-season left = about half. Teams have committed to $500M in additional payroll for 2019 based on the current signed Free Agents. The remainder of unsigned free agents probably are in the $400M-$500M range of additional payroll for 2019 so we are about halfway through the current offseason. Still plenty of money to be invested in 2019 salaries...

 

For the Brewers, it's hard to know the budget flexibility. I saw a piece on theathletic.com that said Stearns was shopping Thames and Alberts to free up some salary for additional adds. If that is indeed true, then we may be close to our limit without either of them moving and maybe 1 or 2 additions away if Thames/Albers are moved...

[pogokat]

There’s plenty of off-season to go, but the Brewers currently rank as the third highest payroll increase from last year.

For the Brewers, it's hard to know the budget flexibility. I saw a piece on theathletic.com that said Stearns was shopping Thames and Alberts to free up some salary for additional adds. If that is indeed true, then we may be close to our limit without either of them moving and maybe 1 or 2 additions away if Thames/Albers are moved...

 

I'm sure the writer would frame the need to trade those two under the label of freeing up salary, but its also just logical that Stearns would want to trade those guys....

 

I mean, why would the team want to pay for those guys? I suspect there is still payroll room to absorb those two even if they add another 10 million before the end of the offseason.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's hilarious to me that the Cubs are one of the biggest adders of payroll, yet they didn't really improve their team at all from the outside. They exercised Hamels option and paid for some steep increases. Those increases only get steeper next year as Bryant/Baez move up in arbitration. They definitely have a ton of bounceback candidates and one bounceback certainty(Bryant), but those are probably offset by older guys that are growing less and less likely to maintain performance. It would be tough to argue that the Cubs look better on paper now than they did at the start of 2018...meanwhile 3 divisional teams have gotten a lot better.

 

Don't be so certain of Bryant being a bounceback certainty...his shoulder is a big ? mark healthwise until he proves it isn't a lingering concern.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Do the Mark A Brewers ever, really, have a hard budget? It seems like Mark A will always open up the purse strings a little bit more if the GM pushes for it. While I'm not in those meetings or part of those conversations it just seems like the Brewers have been willing to go that extra mile whenever it seems prudent. Does this mean a likely run at Dallas Keuchel? Probably not, but it does mean that I think signing Marwin Gonzalez, AJ Pollack or Mike Moustakas is still definitely on the table even though those contracts could be 1 year $10 million floors and $30+ million dollar multi year deals.

 

Mark A seems to be an ideal small market owner. He does keep a tight reign on finances so things don't get of control and require a Marlins style selloff of bad signings, but he also is willing to spend more when it seems prudent.

 

Oh, and #brewersmysteryteaminonMachado. He may be a dirtbag on the field but it's fun to imagine him in this Brewers lineup, as foolish as it would be.

[wntrtxn21]

Do the Mark A Brewers ever, really, have a hard budget? It seems like Mark A will always open up the purse strings a little bit more if the GM pushes for it. While I'm not in those meetings or part of those conversations it just seems like the Brewers have been willing to go that extra mile whenever it seems prudent. Does this mean a likely run at Dallas Keuchel? Probably not, but it does mean that I think signing Marwin Gonzalez, AJ Pollack or Mike Moustakas is still definitely on the table even though those contracts could be 1 year $10 million floors and $30+ million dollar multi year deals.

 

Mark A seems to be an ideal small market owner. He does keep a tight reign on finances so things don't get of control and require a Marlins style selloff of bad signings, but he also is willing to spend more when it seems prudent.

 

Oh, and #brewersmysteryteaminonMachado. He may be a dirtbag on the field but it's fun to imagine him in this Brewers lineup, as foolish as it would be.

 

I don't think Stearns is looking at Gonzalez or Pollack. Gonzalez is a .247/.323 hitter with some pop, but not worth anything near the $10-12M he is reportedly asking for. Villar was a better hitter and they let him go. Pollack is an OF and wants way too much money to be a bench warmer. Plus he is on the DL constantly. Not a guy worth going after given the Brewers OF. Moustakas is the only one worth looking at, but he already turned down $15+M from the Brewers. Stearns isn't likely to go up from that.

[xisxisxis]

I mean, why would the team want to pay for those guys? I suspect there is still payroll room to absorb those two even if they add another 10 million before the end of the offseason.

At present the Brewers have 4 OF including brittle man who won't be available for 35-40 games. Without Thames, there isn't a bat to replace one of those OF and brittle man is the backup 1B. While Thames struggled after his injury last year he is still a much better option than Hernan Perez will ever be. Thames is also perfect backup for any issues with Aguilar playing full-time. If the Brewers do think they can part with Thames then they will need to look for a backup 1B/OF and if Marwin Gonzalez is the option I am cool with that. If the plan is Perez in a pinch with Braun as backup and another 3B (Moustakas) or 2B/3B (Cabrera) then 1B is going to be a problem. I would love an addition like Marwin Gonzalez and a breakout from Spankenburg so we can waive bye-bye to Perez, but I'm not down on Thames enough that he has to be moved. Albers they can release if they want, but he's not bad insurance if we lose some bullpen arms early in the year. I can see Albers being redundant, but several moves would need to be made for Thames to be redundant.

[brewmann04]

If there a guy out there that will give the Brewers better chance to win Mark will go out and spend.

[MrTPlush]

If there a guy out there that will give the Brewers better chance to win Mark will go out and spend.

 

Can you imagine Harper and Machado in our line up...

[Nader Raider Tim]

I don't think Stearns is looking at Gonzalez or Pollack. Gonzalez is a .247/.323 hitter with some pop, but not worth anything near the $10-12M he is reportedly asking for. Villar was a better hitter and they let him go. Pollack is an OF and wants way too much money to be a bench warmer. Plus he is on the DL constantly. Not a guy worth going after given the Brewers OF. Moustakas is the only one worth looking at, but he already turned down $15+M from the Brewers. Stearns isn't likely to go up from that.

 

I just think Pollock is going to end up signing a bottom out terrible deal of like 1 year 8-10 million. I think teams will be scared off by the injury history and he's going to be a crazy value signing for someone. My logic is going to a team like the Brewers might make sense for him because the Brewers do have depth and Pollock would be in position to only play 130 games total if everyone stays healthy. Him being able to get 1 day off a week or even a touch more might be able to keep him healthier and make him look a bit more attractive elsewhere next year. This one is just total gut feeling.

 

Marwin Gonazales is baby Zobrist. His defensive versatility does wonders for his value in my mind. I'd say he'd be an option if his best offer comes in around 3/$27 million. Short term he's the Brewers second baseman, long term he's a top flight backup at multiple positions along with being a solid trade piece.

 

Moose just makes sense, just not sure how much. Why I brought up each of these players is that I think they are going to fall into the category of "value" signings, although each for different reasons, and if they end up being "value" signings I could easily see Mark A being happy to push the budget to bring one of them in.

[KeithStone53151]

It's hilarious to me that the Cubs are one of the biggest adders of payroll, yet they didn't really improve their team at all from the outside. They exercised Hamels option and paid for some steep increases. Those increases only get steeper next year as Bryant/Baez move up in arbitration. They definitely have a ton of bounceback candidates and one bounceback certainty(Bryant), but those are probably offset by older guys that are growing less and less likely to maintain performance. It would be tough to argue that the Cubs look better on paper now than they did at the start of 2018...meanwhile 3 divisional teams have gotten a lot better.

 

Don't be so certain of Bryant being a bounceback certainty...his shoulder is a big ? mark healthwise until he proves it isn't a lingering concern.

 

I suppose that's fair. I guess I'd call him as close as a certainty as it gets pending his shoulder health. I definitely wouldn't bet against him though, he's a special player.

[sveumrules]

I don't think Stearns is looking at Gonzalez or Pollack. Gonzalez is a .247/.323 hitter with some pop, but not worth anything near the $10-12M he is reportedly asking for. Villar was a better hitter and they let him go.

 

Villar career | 256/325/394 (93 OPS+) 2,288 PAs

Marwin career | 264/319/418 (103 OPS+) 2,706 PAs

 

If you narrow it down to just the last two years the difference is more stark...

 

Villar 2017-18 | 251/310/379 (83 OPS+) 951 PAs

Marwin 2017-18 | 279/349/467 (124 OPS+) 1,067 PAs