Yasmani Grandal signs with Brewers - 1 year, $16 million. Mutual option for 2020.

[adambr2]

I do not like this signing. I do not think spending 18.25 million dollars AND third highest draft pick is worth the slight offensive upgrade. Grandal is a career .240 hitter and batted .241 last year versus .252 for Piña. Yes, he has a little more power than Manny (24 homeruns versus Manny's (adjusted for at bats) 13 homeruns) and the slightly higher OPS and WAR is simply not worth the money and draft pick. We could and should have used that money to upgrade second base where we could really use an upgrade or add a starting pitcher instead.

 

This is probably a good spot to mention that batting average doesn't even crack the top 10 best ways to evaluate a player's offense. You mentioned a slight upgrade in OBP and WAR, but Grandal is 3.5 WAR player with a .782 career OPS - more than slight.

 

They still have time to upgrade at 2nd and find a starter. And unlike catcher their best prospect has the potential to take over at 2B midseason.

[clancyphile]

Clancy, I think the argument is that if the Brewers are to have payroll flexibility going forward, they likely need to move Thames' salary to do so.

 

I get the financial flexibility argument.

 

That said, what Thames will make ($6 million) is not horrific to carry - even if for part of a season. There are a lot of unknowns. How will Hiura do in AAA? Could someone get hurt? Maybe a trade happens. Maybe Attanasio decides to pony up more cash to go for the World Series title.

 

I'm just saying that an offseason trade of Thames (or someone else) isn't necessarily written in stone. They could simply go with Thames for part of the season, then move him.

[coolhandluke121]

I've said Thames is likely to be traded *long before* Grandal was signed. We're going to have 13 pitchers so that leaves 4 bench spots.

 

That's what I thought last year, but I didn't foresee them using so much shuttle service. That's probably going to be the plan again, given how many guys with options they have on the 40 man. In fact, they'll probably have 11 pitchers more often than they have 13.

[KeithStone53151]

I've said Thames is likely to be traded *long before* Grandal was signed. We're going to have 13 pitchers so that leaves 4 bench spots.

 

That's what I thought last year, but I didn't foresee them using so much shuttle service. That's probably going to be the plan again, given how many guys with options they have on the 40 man. In fact, they'll probably have 11 pitchers more often than they have 13.

 

HA! I'd bet the maximum amount of money possible that you're wrong on the 11 vs 13 argument.

[MNBrew]

When they shuttled, it was between keeping 12-13 pitchers & 12-13 position players. If anything, they still favored a 13th pitcher more of the time than not. So I don't get where the idea comes from that they're more likely to have only 11 pitchers than 13.

[coolhandluke121]

When they shuttled, it was between keeping 12-13 pitchers & 12-13 position players. If anything, they still favored a 13th pitcher more of the time than not. So I don't get where the idea comes from that they're more likely to have only 11 pitchers than 13.

 

Even more middle relievers than last year, and more guys with options. They rarely had 13, and generally carried 11 in the playoffs. Granted, that's less games per week, but there's also no option of using options in the playoffs. They have even come out and said they're going to keep blurring the lines between starters and relievers even more than before. Could easily see guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Davies, and/or Guerra getting optioned a few times after a long outing, not to mention the obvious shuttle candidates like Williams and Houser.

 

With so many options, you can effectively have an 18-man staff even if only 11-12 are on the 25 man roster at any given time.

[Humans Need Water]

I've said Thames is likely to be traded *long before* Grandal was signed. We're going to have 13 pitchers so that leaves 4 bench spots.

 

That's what I thought last year, but I didn't foresee them using so much shuttle service. That's probably going to be the plan again, given how many guys with options they have on the 40 man. In fact, they'll probably have 11 pitchers more often than they have 13.

No. It'll be 13 pitchers the vast majority of the time. There will be certain spots on the schedule where it calls for an extra bat with an arm sacrificed but last year it was mainly 4 bench players. The shuffling mainly came from injuries with some ineffectiveness mixed in.

[Humans Need Water]

When they shuttled, it was between keeping 12-13 pitchers & 12-13 position players. If anything, they still favored a 13th pitcher more of the time than not. So I don't get where the idea comes from that they're more likely to have only 11 pitchers than 13.

 

Even more middle relievers than last year, and more guys with options. They rarely had 13, and generally carried 11 in the playoffs. Granted, that's less games per week, but there's also no option of using options in the playoffs. They have even come out and said they're going to keep blurring the lines between starters and relievers even more than before. Could easily see guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Davies, and/or Guerra getting optioned a few times after a long outing, not to mention the obvious shuttle candidates like Williams and Houser.

 

With so many options, you can effectively have an 18-man staff even if only 11-12 are on the 25 man roster at any given time.

Yeah that sounds fine and dandy in theory but in reality that's not how it works. All those AAA arms would need to be scheduled on the opposite pitching days as the MLB guys so they're fresh to come up and take their spots.

[monty57]

Cots has the Brewers at $115,087,500 after the deal, which includes their estimates for arby eligible, and also has Braun at $19M when some (I believe $4M) will be deferred. Not re-upping Schoop saved a lot of money that was showing "on the books" going into the offseason.

 

Attanasio has always said he's willing to spend extra money if it means adding a special player that can help them get over the top, and Grandal qualifies. He is a significant upgrade for the Brewers at Catcher and should be fun to watch this season.

 

I don't think a payroll of around $111,000,000 should be out of line with what the Brewers can handle, but I would guess that a move adding someone like Bumgarner would probably require something like a trade of Thames or Anderson for prospects and salary relief. Even then, it may be stretching our "small market" budget. However, I think if the right deal was on the table, Attanasio would be tempted to make the move, especially since Grandal and Bumgarner would both be one-year financial obligations.

[NievesNoNO]

I do not like this signing. I do not think spending 18.25 million dollars AND third highest draft pick is worth the slight offensive upgrade. Grandal is a career .240 hitter and batted .241 last year versus .252 for Piña. Yes, he has a little more power than Manny (24 homeruns versus Manny's (adjusted for at bats) 13 homeruns) and the slightly higher OPS and WAR is simply not worth the money and draft pick. We could and should have used that money to upgrade second base where we could really use an upgrade or add a starting pitcher instead.

 

It's a pretty significant upgrade. The W/L season total might not completely reflect it but if you consider yourself a playoff team, then a game or two difference during the season and even 1 win in the playoffs is huge. He's for sure in the top 3-4 catchers over the last 3 seasons. I'm not sure the money would stop additional moves, but if it does I can at least understand where your coming from. I was good with Pina as well, but this is a significant upgrade to the lineup and it didn't cost any current prospects, only $$$.

[clancyphile]

I do not like this signing. I do not think spending 18.25 million dollars AND third highest draft pick is worth the slight offensive upgrade. Grandal is a career .240 hitter and batted .241 last year versus .252 for Piña. Yes, he has a little more power than Manny (24 homeruns versus Manny's (adjusted for at bats) 13 homeruns) and the slightly higher OPS and WAR is simply not worth the money and draft pick. We could and should have used that money to upgrade second base where we could really use an upgrade or add a starting pitcher instead.

 

It's a pretty significant upgrade. The W/L season total might not completely reflect it but if you consider yourself a playoff team, then a game or two difference during the season and even 1 win in the playoffs is huge. He's for sure in the top 3-4 catchers over the last 3 seasons. I'm not sure the money would stop additional moves, but if it does I can at least understand where your coming from. I was good with Pina as well, but this is a significant upgrade to the lineup and it didn't cost any current prospects, only $$$.

 

Not just the lineup, the bench as well. Pina is a huge offensive upgrade over Kratz as the #2 catcher.

 

In 2018, Pina started 84 out of 163 games. The other 79 were between Kratz, Bandy, and Nottingham.

 

In 2019, Grandal will likely get 115-120 starts. That cuts Pina's starting burden in half. And a well-rested Pina is much better at the plate.

[sveumrules]

I do not like this signing. I do not think spending 18.25 million dollars AND third highest draft pick is worth the slight offensive upgrade. Grandal is a career .240 hitter and batted .241 last year versus .252 for Piña. Yes, he has a little more power than Manny (24 homeruns versus Manny's (adjusted for at bats) 13 homeruns) and the slightly higher OPS and WAR is simply not worth the money and draft pick. We could and should have used that money to upgrade second base where we could really use an upgrade or add a starting pitcher instead.

 

It is not a slight offensive upgrade. It's an upgrade of over 25% based on their career production.

 

Grandal career 240/341/441 (117 wRC+)

M Pina career 263/318/407 (90 wRC+)

 

Manny hitting for a better average is pretty meaningless when he still has a lower OBP & SLG while also playing in a more hitter friendly park, thus the massive edge in wRC+ for Yasmani.

[sveumrules]

Has anyone seen Jkromb?

[xisxisxis]

Has anyone seen Jkromb?

 

Was traded to the Mets fan forum as part of the Broxton deal?

[coolhandluke121]

Yeah that sounds fine and dandy in theory but in reality that's not how it works.

 

Eh, that sounds a lot like the kind of thing people said about the way the Brewers used their staff this past season. I predicted a lot of those things last off season during the "should they sign a big name starter" arguments and was often dismissed, but I'm pretty sure they're not done making dramatic, evidence-based changes to the way the staff is used. There's a lot of moving parts when you do what I'm suggesting, but I think they're more than capable of handling it all. In fact, I think they actually enjoy the challenge. I think it will be very rare that they feel they need 13 pitchers this year.

 

In any case, I certainly don't think this means it's a given that Thames is gone. Gamel has an option, doesn't he? I think he'll be up and down a lot.

[bjkrautk]

https://abcnews.go.com/beta-story-container/Sports/busters-buzz-brewers-discipline-grandal-price/story?id=60288819

 

A Buster Olney article I found on the news wires (on the ABC side of things; I assume it's also up on ESPN.com) which is exceedingly complimentary of David Stearns.

 

EDIT: the ESPN version of the same article is Insider-only, so feel free to read the cheap version.

[SRB]

Just sitting here imagining a Hiura breakout and Braun/Aguilar/Arcia having big seasons...

 

CF Cain

2B Hiura

RF Yelich

1B Aguilar

LF Braun

C Grandal

3B Shaw

SS Arcia

 

[xisxisxis]

Very nice article on Stearns...

 

However, just poor attention to detail:

 

Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 after 2019.

Sorry, but you can't field a team without paying 25 players the minimum so they have to have at least $13.875M invested in payroll. That's an obligation...

[MNBrew]

When they shuttled, it was between keeping 12-13 pitchers & 12-13 position players. If anything, they still favored a 13th pitcher more of the time than not. So I don't get where the idea comes from that they're more likely to have only 11 pitchers than 13.

 

Even more middle relievers than last year, and more guys with options. They rarely had 13, and generally carried 11 in the playoffs. Granted, that's less games per week, but there's also no option of using options in the playoffs. They have even come out and said they're going to keep blurring the lines between starters and relievers even more than before. Could easily see guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Davies, and/or Guerra getting optioned a few times after a long outing, not to mention the obvious shuttle candidates like Williams and Houser.

 

With so many options, you can effectively have an 18-man staff even if only 11-12 are on the 25 man roster at any given time.

Roster approach in the playoffs is the exception, not their main MO. Fewer guys pitching longer = the need for more arms, not fewer. Guys optioned to the minors need to be down 10 days before recalled except in cases of injury.

 

Guerra is out of options. They used his rare 4th option last year.

[adambr2]

Very nice article on Stearns...

 

However, just poor attention to detail:

 

Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 after 2019.

Sorry, but you can't field a team without paying 25 players the minimum so they have to have at least $13.875M invested in payroll. That's an obligation...

 

There's nothing wrong with that statement. He's just saying they don't have any existing contractual obligations in 2020 beyond that 300K buyout for Cruz. He's certainly not implying that the Twins are going to have a 300K payroll for 2020.

[bjkrautk]

Very nice article on Stearns...

 

However, just poor attention to detail:

 

Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 after 2019.

Sorry, but you can't field a team without paying 25 players the minimum so they have to have at least $13.875M invested in payroll. That's an obligation...

 

I had to re-read that part as well, since it could have used some additional love from the copy editor. I think Olney was referencing contractual commitments on the books that carry over to 2019, without consideration of issues like salary arbitration or the obligation to pay league minimum to at least 25 players. It's doubly confusing since the scope of comparison is what the Yankees are paying Tulowitzki in 2019, after the article mentions the Yankees are only actually paying league minimum for Tulo (though the article doesn't actually say how much that is...or why the Twins would have a contractual commitment to pay someone less-than-minimum wage...so I can only assume the Twins player gets to make up the difference in tips).

[KeithStone53151]

Just sitting here imagining a Hiura breakout and Braun/Aguilar/Arcia having big seasons...

 

CF Cain

2B Hiura

RF Yelich

1B Aguilar

LF Braun

C Grandal

3B Shaw

SS Arcia

 

 

I know it's super early and your post is just floating an idea, I too had tried to find a way to move Hiura higher in the order and struggled. This could work, but I think in this scenario you'd be swapping Braun and Grandal. Grandal over the last 2 seasons has been over 100 OPS better as a LH hitter than RH hitter. The switch hitting is still a benefit, but he should be placed in lineups as if he were a LH hitter. Putting Shaw and Grandal together basically guarantees a LH reliever enters the game after Braun and gives those 2 guys a disadvantage.

 

I'll add that I really hope our biggest problem in August is trying to determine which 800+ OPS hitter to insult by having them bat 7th in the lineup.

[xisxisxis]

financial obligations = financial obligations. Minimum salary is a financial obligation.

 

Name 1 team that doesn't have to pay a player at least the minimum salary. The Yankees have to pay tulowitski the minimum even though he's got a guaranteed salary from Toronto.

 

Details matter...

 

"Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 over the minimum salary requirements after 2019." Accurate? yes.

 

Sorry, got to take a break after adding those 37 characters... winded... must sit down....

[Roderick]

Very nice article on Stearns...

 

However, just poor attention to detail:

 

Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 after 2019.

Sorry, but you can't field a team without paying 25 players the minimum so they have to have at least $13.875M invested in payroll. That's an obligation...

 

I like to be picky too, but you and everyone else knew exactly what they were talking about. Players under contract. As the article specifically said in the next sentence.

 

[SRB]

financial obligations = financial obligations. Minimum salary is a financial obligation.

 

Name 1 team that doesn't have to pay a player at least the minimum salary. The Yankees have to pay tulowitski the minimum even though he's got a guaranteed salary from Toronto.

 

Details matter...

 

"Near the bottom of the spenders, the Minnesota Twins have financial obligations of just $300,000 over the minimum salary requirements after 2019." Accurate? yes.

 

Sorry, got to take a break after adding those 37 characters... winded... must sit down....

 

Obligation implies money already guaranteed to a particular player.

 

In theory the entire Twins organization could fold halfway through the 2019 season (more likely the Marlins ) and not field a 2020 team. The organization would still owe those already-guaranteed salaries.