Yasmani Grandal signs with Brewers - 1 year, $16 million. Mutual option for 2020.

[SRB]

What exactly was he supposed to say, "my agent miscalculated and I wish I was on the Mets instead?"

[tmwiese55]

Yea I think SRB just simplified it down. That's really it and he can't say it. Well said.

[anglotiger]

What exactly was he supposed to say, "my agent miscalculated and I wish I was on the Mets instead?"

 

Or "I really, really didn't want to play for the Mets"...

[Eye Black]

A few thoughts on the Grandal “offer” from the Mets and his outlook going forward...

 

1) My sense is that the discussed terms with the Mets were never $60 million. Based on what seems to be some of the more informed speculation I think it was closer to between $52 to $57 million with incentives that could have taken it higher.

 

2) I don’t believe he ever received a formal offer from the Mets.

 

3) He obviously ended up with less total dollars than those rumored amounts, but I still think he is a good bet to get his money. Let’s assume he would have received $55 million from the Mets over 4 years. His one year with the Brewers he is obviously getting $18.25 million. If he stays healthy and doesn’t fall off a cliff this season he would only need a deal of 3 years and $37 million ($12.33 million AAV) to meet those discussed amounts. That seems doable even for an aging catcher.

[reillymcshane]

A few thoughts on the Grandal “offer” from the Mets and his outlook going forward...

 

1) My sense is that the discussed terms with the Mets were never $60 million. Based on what seems to be some of the more informed speculation I think it was closer to between $52 to $57 million with incentives that could have taken it higher.

 

2) I don’t believe he ever received a formal offer from the Mets.

 

3) He obviously ended up with less total dollars than those rumored amounts, but I still think he is a good bet to get his money. Let’s assume he would have received $55 million from the Mets over 4 years. His one year with the Brewers he is obviously getting $18.25 million. If he stays healthy and doesn’t fall off a cliff this season he would only need a deal of 3 years and $37 million ($12.33 million AAV) to meet those discussed amounts. That seems doable even for an aging catcher.

The first two items are pretty much what I have read.

 

The Mets offer was said to be in the range of $55-60M. No one knows really what the exact amount except the Mets and Grandal's team.

 

Also, several sources have stated that no formal offer was made. More of a framework was discussed - but no firm offer was presented.

[AdvantageSchneider]

 

According to spotrac, in the how much money do the Brewers have left to spend thread, they list $1M paid out to Moose on his option and that was a mutual option that he declined, right? Which doesn't make sense to me, but maybe that is the way it is done.

 

In practice I think it's just a way to defer a little guaranteed salary into the next season, as someone mentioned earlier. It's a very thin margin where it's in both the player's and the team's best interest to pick up the option. Either the player performed and would get a raise in free agency, or did not perform and is therefore not asked back. Rarely does it hit the narrow interval where both parties pick up the option.

 

It makes total sense for Grandal. Put up big numbers in Miller Park and get back on the market as soon as possible, without a qualifying offer hanging over his head.

 

When does that money get paid out? Is it as soon as the option is declined? So they are just deferring that money like 7 1/2 months or so? I understand time value of money and all but that seems like an incredibly short period of time to deferred the money. It's not like the brewers need to be worried about the luxury tax either.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

He's making far more this season than he would have in any of the seasons under the Met's contract by a considerable amount.

 

3.25mil is a considerable amount? He gambled $41.75mil for a 7% raise this year....that sounds, less than ideal. Grandal probably breaks even next offseason if he takes the highest offer (probably 3/$40mil). Any issues this year and it was a hefty mistake.

 

He also cited winning and ST location, but I am guessing that was a decision long after the Mets offer when the multi year deals were more like $40mil total where $18mil over one year made more sense.

 

The rumored deal with the Mets was that the deal was more like 4/$50M ($12.5M AAV) but could be worth up to $60M if incentives were achieved ($15M AAV). If you consider this deal with MKE to effectively be 1/$18.25... then yes, that was considerably more money. It's at least 20% higher in terms of AAV, although with less security.

 

But, from a labor perspective, they measure contract values from an AAV perspective and for the best free agent catcher to hit the open market in years to take a deal in the $12.5-15M AAV range when McCann ($17M AAV) and Martin ($16.4M AAV) signed superior deals 5 years ago sets the position WAY back in terms of value. He's making a sacrifice while also gambling on having a huge year to get a better deal next year.

[coolhandluke121]

 

When does that money get paid out? Is it as soon as the option is declined? So they are just deferring that money like 7 1/2 months or so? I understand time value of money and all but that seems like an incredibly short period of time to deferred the money. It's not like the brewers need to be worried about the luxury tax either.

 

That I don't know. Teams are constantly kicking the can down the road when it comes to paying salaries though. It's standard practice in baseball for whatever reason. There's a lot more involved than just whether or not you're paying the luxury tax. Escrow and insurance and all that stuff. I think they can even claim depreciation on players, and it's the only sport where you can do that. Maybe that has something to do with it.

[pacopete4]

If it really was 4/$50ish than I don't blame him for betting on himself next offseason without having to deal with a QO.

[Roderick]

 

When does that money get paid out? Is it as soon as the option is declined? So they are just deferring that money like 7 1/2 months or so? I understand time value of money and all but that seems like an incredibly short period of time to deferred the money. It's not like the brewers need to be worried about the luxury tax either.

 

That I don't know. Teams are constantly kicking the can down the road when it comes to paying salaries though. It's standard practice in baseball for whatever reason. There's a lot more involved than just whether or not you're paying the luxury tax. Escrow and insurance and all that stuff. I think they can even claim depreciation on players, and it's the only sport where you can do that. Maybe that has something to do with it.

 

Maybe an option isn't considered the same as wages for pension/retirement, medicaid, disability, other insurance or some other benefit purposes where the Brewers can save a % of money on the benefits on the $2.25M.

[Thurston Fluff]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

He's making far more this season than he would have in any of the seasons under the Met's contract by a considerable amount.

 

3.25mil is a considerable amount? He gambled $41.75mil for a 7% raise this year....that sounds, less than ideal. Grandal probably breaks even next offseason if he takes the highest offer (probably 3/$40mil). Any issues this year and it was a hefty mistake.

 

He also cited winning and ST location, but I am guessing that was a decision long after the Mets offer when the multi year deals were more like $40mil total where $18mil over one year made more sense.

 

The only way he loses that much money is if he completely falls off a cliff or gets a career ending injury this season. You also fail appreciate the risk of signing a lower annual salary for a longer period of time. He could very well have a monster season this year and get a higher offer next season. If that happens then he would have actually lost money by accepting a lower AAV for more years. What is more likely, him having at a comparable season as he usually has, completely fail or get a career ending injury? It isn't like there isn't a risk of losing money by taking to little money for too many years. Just ask Lucroy.

[homer]

I think the bigger risk than health is if top tier salaries continue to drop.

[monty57]

 

According to spotrac, in the how much money do the Brewers have left to spend thread, they list $1M paid out to Moose on his option and that was a mutual option that he declined, right? Which doesn't make sense to me, but maybe that is the way it is done.

 

In practice I think it's just a way to defer a little guaranteed salary into the next season, as someone mentioned earlier. It's a very thin margin where it's in both the player's and the team's best interest to pick up the option. Either the player performed and would get a raise in free agency, or did not perform and is therefore not asked back. Rarely does it hit the narrow interval where both parties pick up the option.

 

It makes total sense for Grandal. Put up big numbers in Miller Park and get back on the market as soon as possible, without a qualifying offer hanging over his head.

 

When does that money get paid out? Is it as soon as the option is declined? So they are just deferring that money like 7 1/2 months or so? I understand time value of money and all but that seems like an incredibly short period of time to deferred the money. It's not like the brewers need to be worried about the luxury tax either.

 

It's deferred one season and several hundred million dollars of additional revenue into the future.

 

For the team's purposes, it would count against what they can spend next year instead of what they can spend this year, thereby allowing them a little more wiggle room this year and a little less next year.

[Thurston Fluff]

Are the annual salaries dropping or are there just fewer long term contracts being handed out? Obviously one effects the other but I see more deals like this coming out where the player gets a good short term payday but can't get the long term payday. Or at least won't settle for a lower AAV in exchange. I wonder at what point more players start to accept qualifying offers. Granted Grandal's contract shows it's still better to test the waters- which was his part of the point he was making- but at some point it may become better to take the one year guaranteed money. It would force the team not to offer it if they only wanted the compensation pick and allow them to shop their services without the worry of that compensation pick messing with his value.

[Eye Black]

I used these charts in a different thread today, but thought they applied nicely to the offensive impact a good offensive catcher can make. The league average wRC+ among catchers is typically in the 80’s which makes Grandal’s career 117 wRC+ all the more impressive.

 

 

Average wRC+ by position (and league) in 2018:

 

[pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg

P -25 -24 -32

C 84 88 79

1B 105 112 99

2B 93 91 95

3B 102 106 99

SS 95 89 101

LF 102 106 98

CF 96 100 92

RF 106 106 107

DH 112 97 112​[/pre]

 

Average wRC+ by position (and league) from 2000-2018:

 

[pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg

P -13 -13 -21

C 88 89 88

1B 114 117 111

2B 95 96 95

3B 102 103 101

SS 90 88 91

LF 106 109 102

CF 99 100 99

RF 109 109 109

DH 106 93 107​[/pre]

[KeithStone53151]

Anyone with a subscription willing to list out what his other offers were, if specific offers were included?

 

https://theathletic.com/781777/2019/01/23/i-had-a-lot-of-good-deals-inside-yasmani-grandals-free-agency-and-how-he-fits-with-the-brewers/

[reillymcshane]

Anyone with a subscription willing to list out what his other offers were, if specific offers were included?

 

https://theathletic.com/781777/2019/01/23/i-had-a-lot-of-good-deals-inside-yasmani-grandals-free-agency-and-how-he-fits-with-the-brewers/

It says he had four multi-year offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins and Angels. No specifics (years or dollars) were given.

[TURBO]

Anyone with a subscription willing to list out what his other offers were, if specific offers were included?

 

https://theathletic.com/781777/2019/01/23/i-had-a-lot-of-good-deals-inside-yasmani-grandals-free-agency-and-how-he-fits-with-the-brewers/

It says he had four multi-year offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins and Angels. No specifics (years or dollars) were given.

 

Maybe he wanted to win, and saw the Brewers as his best shot at doing so...

[Eye Black]

Anyone with a subscription willing to list out what his other offers were, if specific offers were included?

 

https://theathletic.com/781777/2019/01/23/i-had-a-lot-of-good-deals-inside-yasmani-grandals-free-agency-and-how-he-fits-with-the-brewers/

It says he had four multi-year offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins and Angels. No specifics (years or dollars) were given.

 

Maybe he wanted to win, and saw the Brewers as his best shot at doing so...

In the article he is quoted as saying he did his homework on the teams he could possibly go to and the Brewers kept coming out at the top of his list. He said he wanted to go to a team where he could help maximize their success. He also said the ballpark factored into it, saying he “loves” hitting at Miller Park and is looking forward to getting away from playing his home games in pitcher friendly ballparks (San Diego and LA).

[KeithStone53151]

Thanks guys, from the guy that's too cheap to pay $2/month for a subscription

[MrTPlush]

Guess there is no way we keep him after this year if he loves hitting at "Miller Park"

[KeithStone53151]

Guess there is no way we keep him after this year if he loves hitting at "Miller Park"

 

I hope he hits his way into an $80 million deal next offseason...not from us.

[Eye Black]

It says he had four multi-year offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins and Angels. No specifics (years or dollars) were given.

From Minneapolis reporter Darren Wolfson...

 

Some background on Robert Murray's scoop yesterday on the Twins making Yasmani Grandal an offer before he signed with Milwaukee: They did, and it was for multiple years in the $13M/year range. Talks never gained traction, unfortunately. But the Twins definitely tried.

[rickh150]

Not sure Grandal did the wisest thing, moneywise. He really needs to have a good season just to pretty much have the same type of offers he received this year. Do so so and the offers will not be there next year either, kinda like Lucroy.

[brewerfan82]

Not sure Grandal did the wisest thing, moneywise. He really needs to have a good season just to pretty much have the same type of offers he received this year. Do so so and the offers will not be there next year either, kinda like Lucroy.

Definitely a gamble, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Between a pretty bad lasting impression spotlighted in his playoffs performance this year, to the fact that any signing team had to give up a pick to sign him, he wasn't in an ideal situation to optimize his earnings this offseason. He did his homework and picked a team and ballpark that maximized his ability to regain and supersede his lost value:

 

- He moves from a ballpark with a 5 year park factor of 96 to one of 101

- He moves from a ballpark with a HR park factor of 100 to one of 108

- Beyond the park factor stats, he moves to a ballpark that he said from personal experience he loves to hit in

- He moves to a team where he will be well protected in the lineup by several talented players including this year's NL MVP

- Speaking of which, he moves to a team where he just witnessed a very good player from a pitcher's park move to a friendlier hitting environment and become the league's MVP

- He moves to a team whose catchers last year ranked 20th in WAR, ensuring 1.) he is highly likely to maintain a high percentage of the catcher starts this year, 2.) he can be viewed as a major reason the team maintains (or exceeds) their success this year

- He moves to a team that came within a game of the World Series last year, and with his help, are in a position to make another deep postseason run this year, meaning he could have another chance to prove last season's playoff gaffes were a fluke

 

And perhaps most of all, he moves to a team that he will likely earn $18.25M with this year. From the rumblings it sounded like *at best* he was being offered $15M/4 years. With a decent season and with no team needing to give up a pick to obtain him next year, he'll only need $14M/3 years to come out on top. With a good season, and only being 1 year older, there's a good chance he comes out way on top.

 

Again, he's definitely betting on himself, but he's been consistently good the past four seasons and I think he put himself in a good position to succeed and I can definitely see why he did it.