Yasmani Grandal signs with Brewers - 1 year, $16 million. Mutual option for 2020.

[MrTPlush]

It is likely that Grandal was not getting the huge numbers he wanted because of the QO. Now he can go back into free agency next offseason without that being attached to him. I am happy at the edition but would have preferred at least a 2 year deal.

 

I don’t buy this at all. I think his market was just flat out not there. MLBTR predicted him at $67mil over 4 years. It isn’t hard to imagine if his market was settling in the 4/$40mil he might prefer this deal over that.

 

The logic that teams would be willing to offer $50mil+ for someone without losing a draft pick, but since he did they massively decreased their offers just doesn’t make sense. If that was the case why did a team swoop in and give up a draft pick to have him for one single year at near $20mil? That makes even less sense.

 

I don’t think the problem is the draft pick needed to sign. It certainly effects things a little, but not to dramatically change offers. The bigger problem was his questionable defense that got so bad in the playoffs he got sat in the NLCS. That would be a bigger red flag when handing out a 30 year old catcher 4 years.

[Eye Black]

I'm really excited for his bat. Such a great annual candidate for "left handed hitter who comes to Miller Park and power numbers jump" (see: Shaw, Yelich, Lind, Thames, etc etc)

 

27, 22, 24 HR's the last 3 seasons hitting in Dodgers Stadium... we just added a 30HR bat at the catcher position hitting in Miller Park. Pretty awesome.

 

A .245/.345/.475 with 30 HRs isn't an unreasonable estimate if he stays healthy, correct? Let's gooo!

OPS v RHP the past three seasons:

 

.844

.790

.824

 

Yes please. Very excited about this add.

 

It’s a small sample (60 plate appearances), but Yasmani Grandal’s career stats at Miller Park...

 

.296 AVG

.259 ISO

.922 OPS

.393 wOBA

151 wRC+

 

Chase Field is a ballpark that is often compared as being a similar hitting backdrop to Miller Park, and Grandal’s stats are nearly identical (actually better) in 175 career plate appearances in Arizona.

 

I know it has been publicized that Grandal is coming to Milwaukee to win the World Series (which will be great!), but I think a motivating factor was also likely a belief that he could put up some gaudy numbers playing half his games at Miller Park this season and re-enter the market without having the qualifying offer attached to him.

[OnTheBlack]

I thought this was a pretty interesting article on the Brewer and the signing of Grandal in particular. It also addresses some things that have been mentioned in this thread without getting too far in the weeds.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/during-slow-offseasons-the-brewers-keep-finding-deals/?addata=espn:mlb:teams

[Roderick]

On a "Mutual Option", if the Team exercises the option and the player decline is the team still in the hook for the "buyout"?

 

Yes, I believe so

 

 

I thought they were not on the hook if the player declined but the team did not.

 

According to spotrac, in the how much money do the Brewers have left to spend thread, they list $1M paid out to Moose on his option and that was a mutual option that he declined, right? Which doesn't make sense to me, but maybe that is the way it is done.

[Patrick425]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/30/moustakas-soria-decline-options-brewers-become-free-agents/1825578002/

 

I'm pretty sure Moustakas declined before the Brewers declined and he received the buyout.

 

So the order of who declines first would possibly effect the buyout? What if the Brewers declined before he declined, would they still have been on the hook? My guess is that it does not matter and the buyout gets paid regardless of who declines. If that is correct, then I don't see a scenario where his option gets picked up. Even if both sides believe that $16M is a good number for him next year, Grandal would only need to get offered $13.5M somewhere else to make the same amount of money in total. As one or two others have mentioned, really just seems like a way to defer $2.5M.

[coolhandluke121]

 

According to spotrac, in the how much money do the Brewers have left to spend thread, they list $1M paid out to Moose on his option and that was a mutual option that he declined, right? Which doesn't make sense to me, but maybe that is the way it is done.

 

In practice I think it's just a way to defer a little guaranteed salary into the next season, as someone mentioned earlier. It's a very thin margin where it's in both the player's and the team's best interest to pick up the option. Either the player performed and would get a raise in free agency, or did not perform and is therefore not asked back. Rarely does it hit the narrow interval where both parties pick up the option.

 

It makes total sense for Grandal. Put up big numbers in Miller Park and get back on the market as soon as possible, without a qualifying offer hanging over his head.

[Eye Black]

Synopsis of the Yasmani Grandal introductory press conference.

[tigerbrew]

[Point Beer Is Best]

Isn't the mutual option just a way to defer some money?

 

Exactly. Never say never, but mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides. Grandal still gets his $18+ M, while the Brewers maintain a bit more payroll flexibility this year for additional moves.

[MrTPlush]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

[amt2138]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

To me it is similar to when a team and player would be bickering over $300k and head to arbitration. All the fans would wonder why a team would put themselves through that. The guy that was in charge of the process for the Brewers said at the Baseball Prospectus Q and A that teams fight over that little amount because each case has the ability to set the new price for years to come.

 

Grandal mentioned the guys in the past but I imagine it was just important for him to keep the AAV high for the future players as well just as the guys he mentioned did for him. If the top catcher on the market takes a discount that is most definitely going to set a lower price for future catcher's coming out. I definitely had a lot of respect for his explanation and him fighting for the players side a little bit.

[Oxy]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

Yeah, I took that as meaning the players union/agent had set a number/contract that they felt he was worth based on previous contracts for guys of his caliber. 4/60 was below that number, so he declined out of deference to the union even if he personally would have taken the contract. The flaw in the logic of the union/agents is that those deals were bad deals for the clubs. It's hard to be the guy that the market corrects itself on.

 

I'm not sure that he even thinks this is a 'better" deal than that one, but that offer wasn't on the table anymore, and this one was. It's getting a bit late in the game for a starting catcher to sign with a team, as it would be nice to know where he's reporting to when pitchers and catchers report for Spring training.

[Thurston Fluff]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

He's making far more this season than he would have in any of the seasons under the Met's contract by a considerable amount. Given the trend seems to be going away from long term deals anyway that isn't as out there as it seems. What he's doing is helping raise the annual salary in a time when fewer long term contracts are being offered.

[pacopete4]

If I am a player into my 30's, year by year contracts might be the way to go if you want to be on successful teams. Now, at any given time your ability could falter and you could stink which would cost you considerably. But, if you are good with the money you have made during your career and believe in your ability, I think I would take 1-2 year shots on teams that I believe had an opportunity to win it all.

[MrTPlush]

Grandal mentioned the guys in the past but I imagine it was just important for him to keep the AAV high for the future players as well just as the guys he mentioned did for him. If the top catcher on the market takes a discount that is most definitely going to set a lower price for future catcher's coming out. I definitely had a lot of respect for his explanation and him fighting for the players side a little bit.

 

Right, but anyone with any understanding of contracts knows him getting $18mil in one year isn't setting up guys in the future to get that over 4 years. Actually I would argue $15mil AAV over four years is way better help for future players than his one year $18mil contract. To say he would get nowhere near the Mets deal AAV (someone else stated it) is false because it was already close to this deal.

 

Really all he did was prove the notion catchers aren't worth long term contracts, especially 30+.

[MrTPlush]

Grandal stated he declined the 4/$60mil deal elsewhere out of respect of the stars before him. Outside of comparing himself to the likes of Molina and McCann I guess somewhere in his brain 1/$18mil is better than 4/$60mil and less insulting to the greats before you.

 

Not saying he can't find a way to make more money in the long run, but his logic and reasoning is a tad out there.

 

He's making far more this season than he would have in any of the seasons under the Met's contract by a considerable amount.

 

3.25mil is a considerable amount? He gambled $41.75mil for a 7% raise this year....that sounds, less than ideal. Grandal probably breaks even next offseason if he takes the highest offer (probably 3/$40mil). Any issues this year and it was a hefty mistake.

 

He also cited winning and ST location, but I am guessing that was a decision long after the Mets offer when the multi year deals were more like $40mil total where $18mil over one year made more sense.

[coolhandluke121]

 

3.25mil is a considerable amount? He gambled $41.75mil for a 7% raise this year....that sounds, less than ideal. Grandal probably breaks even next offseason if he takes the highest offer (probably 3/$40mil). Any issues this year and it was a hefty mistake.

 

He also cited winning and ST location, but I am guessing that was a decision long after the Mets offer when the multi year deals were more like $40mil total where $18mil over one year made more sense.

 

I don't see how you can assume he won't get better offers next year. The qualifying offer is a big deal to teams these days. Without that, and with big numbers in Miller Park, he could easily end up getting $60m in the next 3 years. He's a good player at a premium position. I would have definitely taken 4/$60m, but what he did is not a bad gamble. There's pretty good chance he's healthy and productive, which gives him an outside chance at a huge payday.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sounds like his agent/ union got in his ear. That's fine, he's a grown man and can make his own decisions. There is injury risk and at his age performance risk. I would have jumped on a 4 year deal, but that's just me.

[tmwiese55]

You can't assume either way, it's a risk. He'll be a year older, could get hurt and miss a big chunk, could play and hit poorly, etc. Or, he could do roughly the same or have better numbers in MP. Either way he gambled that 41 mil and I wouldn't have done it. He could be supremely confident in his ability, do all the needed offseason work to have a great year, and if he takes a foul ball of his wrist just right it could cost him tens of millions of dollars.

 

Basically, to get a better deal after this year (3/40ish) seems less likely than getting a worse deal. As in, assuming all goes well he'll probably get roughly the same thing (and I'd bet he puts it in the bank this time) but if things go poorly he's out a lot.

[pacopete4]

Four years on the Mets at a price you think you’re better than or possibly $32M on a team you think can contend for two seasons? I don’t think this is as black and white as it seems.

[MrTPlush]

Sounds like his agent/ union got in his ear. That's fine, he's a grown man and can make his own decisions. There is injury risk and at his age performance risk. I would have jumped on a 4 year deal, but that's just me.

 

Thinking the agent would have preferred the 4 year deal.

[tmwiese55]

Four years on the Mets at a price you think you’re better than or possibly $32M on a team you think can contend for two seasons? I don’t think this is as black and white as it seems.

 

Yea that's fair. But why not just say that instead of trying to justify it financially when it sure seems a poor choice financially. If happiness, winning, etc factored in more power to him. But why not just say it. Heck, it would be good PR. "I chose MKE over the money due to the chance at the WS after seeing how good they were last year firsthand" etc.

[KeithStone53151]

Sounds like his agent/ union got in his ear. That's fine, he's a grown man and can make his own decisions. There is injury risk and at his age performance risk. I would have jumped on a 4 year deal, but that's just me.

 

Thinking the agent would have preferred the 4 year deal.

 

I tend to agree regarding the agent's preference. This 1 year agreement is probably either because the 4 year deal fell off the table...or Grandal was betting on himself to have a big year and re-enter FA without the QO. There's definitely a ton of risk. But if Grandal hits 35 bombs and over 900 OPS while being solid or better defensively and remains healthy...i have to think 4/60 will be there again next offseason, possibly more...and he will have increased his overall earnings significantly. I know that's a lot of if's but none of those are overall unlikely. In this park, he basically just needs to repeat what he did last year and not have a major injury...and I would argue 2018 was a bit of an unlucky year for him considering his batted ball profile.

 

I'll add that Grandal has already made almost 40 million including his most recent signing with us. Having banked what he has, much easier to bet big on yourself as he has...

[Oxy]

Sounds like his agent/ union got in his ear. That's fine, he's a grown man and can make his own decisions. There is injury risk and at his age performance risk. I would have jumped on a 4 year deal, but that's just me.

 

Thinking the agent would have preferred the 4 year deal.

 

Sure--now. But after the Mets signed Ramos, that wasn't an option. Mets offered 4/60. I'd guess his agent countered with 5/75. It sat that way for a couple weeks and then the Mets signed Ramos leaving Grandal to look elsewhere--where nobody was even offering 4/60.

 

I'd be curious to know if Stearns had different offers on the table based on the number of guaranteed years. If I were Stearns, I'd have offered Grandal this deal that he ended up accepting OR 2/30 or 3/40 or 4/50.

[pacopete4]

Four years on the Mets at a price you think you’re better than or possibly $32M on a team you think can contend for two seasons? I don’t think this is as black and white as it seems.

 

Yea that's fair. But why not just say that instead of trying to justify it financially when it sure seems a poor choice financially. If happiness, winning, etc factored in more power to him. But why not just say it. Heck, it would be good PR. "I chose MKE over the money due to the chance at the WS after seeing how good they were last year firsthand" etc.

 

Didn’t he toe this line today in his locker room presser?