2019 Misc MLB News

[wallus]

10% possibility of an outcome happening. It happens.... these projections are garbage! Ehhh, what?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?

 

The people constantly ripping the projections apart aren't any more annoying to me than the people who take this stuff as law. Is it that unreasonable that some of these formulas are flawed and not accounting for things that a computer simply can't?

[homer]

Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?

 

Before yesterday the Cards were 90 - 68 and the Brewers were 87 - 70 with 4 and 5 games to go respectively. To win the division outright, the Brewers would have to at a minimum go 4 - 1 and the Cards 0 - 4 (other option is 5 - 0, and 1 - 3). I think a 5% chance of that happening is about right.

 

After yesterday, the Cards were 90 - 69 and the Brewers 88 - 70 with 3 and 4 games to go respectively. To win the division outright, the Brewers would have to at a minimum 3 - 1 and the Cards 0 - 3 (or Brewers go 4 - 0 and Cards go 1 - 2). Obviously this is not out of the realm of possibility and as such the odds are better for the Brewers. 25% chance seems reasonable.

 

Someone else can do the math on this but it appears to me that the fact that there are so few games remaining means the odds change drastically with each outcome (Brewer win or loss). If it was early August they wouldn't be changing as much.

 

Another way to look at it is if you are tied in the standings going into the last game of the year your odds are 50% but if you lose they drop to 0% (or if you win they are 100%). So, yes big jumps are expected with so few rolls of the dice.

 

I am not a math whiz so someone else can revise or correct me here.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I guess I just have a hard time believing that if you played out that scenario 20 times the Brewers would only end up on top once but the math is probably more solid than my head.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I guess I just have a hard time believing that if you played out that scenario 20 times the Brewers would only end up on top once but the math is probably more solid than my head.

 

Math doesnt factor in craigtember...too bad for math!

[dlk9s]

Forget that they won 17/19 though. As late as yesterday they were at 5%, then it potentially swings 20 points because they beat a crappy Reds team twice and the Cardinals lose a game?

 

Let's use your example of beating the Reds twice and the Cards losing once.

 

I'm making these numbers up, but let's also say the Brewers had a 60% chance to win each of those games and the Cards were also 60% (I'm guessing Cards probability was a bit lower, Brewers might have been, too, but let's just use those figures). The probability of two Brewers wins and one Cards loss was therefore .6 x .6 x .6 = .216.

 

That's 21.6% for that exact three-game scenario to play out and that just gets us to 1 game back. Then there are more games that need to work out just right this weekend. I could easily see us being 5% to win the division before yesterday.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Yeah math doesn't lie folks.

[Polish Falcons]

The NL wild card game time hasn’t been announced yet. Does anyone have any clues as to what time the game will be at? I am guessing it will be in the evening because there is only one game that day. In the past they have had both wild card games on the same day.

 

I am really anxious to find out when the game is.

[MrTPlush]

The NL wild card game time hasn’t been announced yet. Does anyone have any clues as to what time the game will be at? I am guessing it will be in the evening because there is only one game that day. In the past they have had both wild card games on the same day.

 

I am really anxious to find out when the game is.

 

7:10 7:00 7:15

 

Something like that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah, it's a Tuesday night, I can't think of why it would be a day game.

[Jopal78]

Aren’t the wild card games usually late afternoon? 4:00pm or so?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No. Cubs-Rockies was a 7:10 start. Yankees-A's was 8:10. As long as the games are on different days there is no real incentive to put them during the day. The AL maybe? Because I think it's up against Monday Night Football which MLB is usually terrified of.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

NVM, AL plays Wednesday.

[bucks2281]

Wild Card games will be at night. A tiebreaker Monday will be during the day since ESPN has the rights to those games and obviously they have Monday Night Football, as well

[young guns]

I was wondering about 163 myself. Last year ours was I think a 1pm start, but the Dodgers and Rockies also had a 163. I haven't seen anything yet about times for this year. Anyone remember when last year's times were set?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Pretty sure it was set the day before. But there were two of them. It was a noon start at Wrigley, but my total guess would be it's pushed later if there is only one. But maybe not because the winner would have to travel to Atlanta, I think, but I'm getting a headache. If the Cards lost they'd stay put to host Washington assuming they finish ahead or tied and the Brewers would have to head somewhere to play WAS.

[TURBO]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that "the entire industry regards it as a fait accompli" that the Cubs will not bring back manager Joe Maddon.

 

In other words, it's seen as a foregone conclusion that Maddon will walk after his contract expires following the season. The news comes as no surprise, as the indication after Maddon was not extended was that he probably had to make a deep playoff run with the Cubs in order to have a chance to come back. While Maddon's tenure with the Cubs looks like it will end on a sour note, he'll surely have no problem landing another managing gig.

 

SOURCE: The Athletic

Sep 27, 2019, 11:59 AM ET

[Ennder]

I still think those projections have serious flaws. The Brewers were at 5% at the division yesterday. If they beat the fading Reds twice after one STL loss they are one back with 3 left, against the Rockies while STL plays its most intense rival. I just have a hard time believing that was ever a 1/20 probability, it doesn't sounds that crazy.

 

They don't account for things like everyone on one team resting so yeah they are a bit flawed for this final little stretch. Our odds to win the division are probably lower than this gives us credit for and our odds to take home field in the wild card are probably higher.

[HarveysWBs]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that "the entire industry regards it as a fait accompli" that the Cubs will not bring back manager Joe Maddon.

 

In other words, it's seen as a foregone conclusion that Maddon will walk after his contract expires following the season. The news comes as no surprise, as the indication after Maddon was not extended was that he probably had to make a deep playoff run with the Cubs in order to have a chance to come back. While Maddon's tenure with the Cubs looks like it will end on a sour note, he'll surely have no problem landing another managing gig.

 

SOURCE: The Athletic

Sep 27, 2019, 11:59 AM ET

 

I think I’d be fine with either Girardi or Matheny donning the Cubbie blue, but want no part of Bochy as skipper down there. I’m hoping he is looking for a beach somewhere or a gig in a warmer city. Incompetent managing in Chicago is a tradition worth preserving.

[RollieTime]

Before the game yesterday, Bregman trailed Trout in WAR 8.3 to 8.1. Bregman went 1-1 with a single and two walks and then somehow finished the year at 8.4 WAR, taking away the title from Trout. I really do not know how WAR is calculated, but that doesn’t really add up to me. If a guy hits a couple homers and goes 5-5 in a game, yeah I can see why it would spike up that much. When Braun had his 6 hit game earlier in the year, did that give him .6 or .7 WAR of his 1.8 total WAR for the season? Seems a little far fetched to me. But again, I don’t have a great understanding of WAR. Maybe someone can explain how it possibly went up that much from those three plate appearances?

 

The Astros also reportedly removed him from the game after his third plate appearance, knowing that he took the WAR lead.

[sveumrules]

Looking at the 2019 weighted run values for individual events a single is worth .870 runs & a walk is worth .690 runs

 

So .87 + .69 + .69 = 2.25 runs, which could be enough to raise it from 8.1 to 8.4.

 

Say he was at 8.149 coming into the game, which rounds down to 8.1 WAR then add the 2.25 runs & it goes up to 8.374, which then rounds to 8.4.

[wntrtxn21]

Before the game yesterday, Bregman trailed Trout in WAR 8.3 to 8.1. Bregman went 1-1 with a single and two walks and then somehow finished the year at 8.4 WAR, taking away the title from Trout. I really do not know how WAR is calculated, but that doesn’t really add up to me. If a guy hits a couple homers and goes 5-5 in a game, yeah I can see why it would spike up that much. When Braun had his 6 hit game earlier in the year, did that give him .6 or .7 WAR of his 1.8 total WAR for the season? Seems a little far fetched to me. But again, I don’t have a great understanding of WAR. Maybe someone can explain how it possibly went up that much from those three plate appearances?

 

The Astros also reportedly removed him from the game after his third plate appearance, knowing that he took the WAR lead.

 

It just tells you how silly any type WAR "stat" is. It depends on whose WAR "stats" you believe and is calculated differently by different sources. Meaningless.

[sveumrules]

It just tells you how silly any type WAR "stat" is. It depends on whose WAR "stats" you believe and is calculated differently by different sources. Meaningless.

 

Which stat that accounts for batting, base running, defense, position, playing time & run scoring environment do you prefer to use as a starting point for player evaluation/comparison?

[trwi7]

Before the game yesterday, Bregman trailed Trout in WAR 8.3 to 8.1. Bregman went 1-1 with a single and two walks and then somehow finished the year at 8.4 WAR, taking away the title from Trout. I really do not know how WAR is calculated, but that doesn’t really add up to me. If a guy hits a couple homers and goes 5-5 in a game, yeah I can see why it would spike up that much. When Braun had his 6 hit game earlier in the year, did that give him .6 or .7 WAR of his 1.8 total WAR for the season? Seems a little far fetched to me. But again, I don’t have a great understanding of WAR. Maybe someone can explain how it possibly went up that much from those three plate appearances?

 

The Astros also reportedly removed him from the game after his third plate appearance, knowing that he took the WAR lead.

 

Defensive stats aren't updated daily so I'm guessing that's where it updated and pushed him over the top.

[bjkrautk]

 

I'm a bit of a sucker for thank you letters to a team's fans, particularly after the Brewers' recent run of success (that will continue tonight, staying positive!). Bochy's farewell letter to Giants fans is a good one of those.

 

 

EDIT: changed "retirement" to "farewell," since he may not retire.