2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[monty57]

 

How do we know for sure it’s “Arm Fatigue” and not structural damage of some sort. They said no need for tests “Right Now”. Why not do tests to know for sure what’s going on here with the shoulder. Don’t the brewers have multi million dollar state of the art science wing that I’m assuming has an MRI they can use. What am I missing here?

 

I think it's because his comments were something to the effect that there's no pain or discomfort but his "body just isn't right". We can't know for sure but given his workload last year, his performance as his workload approached extremely rare levels, and his start to the spring, it sure supports the theory that he wore out his arm last year.

 

I get why people would say we don't know for sure, but I don't get how anyone can deny that the evidence strongly supports it. Someone accused me of having an agenda, but I think it's pretty clear that the people who still refuse to even entertain the possibility despite all the circumstantial evidence are the ones with the agenda. I'm sure most of them are the same people who supported JJ pitching over and over again against LAD despite all the signs that he was falling apart, and the same people who often complained that they didn't use Hader enough and finally forced an exasperated CC to say "look, he can't pitch 90 games, okay?"

 

My biggest concern with the new wave of thinking about pitching is how relievers will hold up with the extra workload as starting pitchers are taken out after two times through the order. Games are still nine innings, so if starters pitch less there will necessarily be a lot more relievers with 70+ outings, many of them multi-inning outings. This could very likely shorten the useful lifespan of your relievers. Since there is always a shortage of consistent relievers, if it becomes evident that overuse is shortening the careers of relievers, I think that negative could outweigh the benefit of pulling starters out early. But, only time will tell.

[MrTPlush]

I know pitcher wins are not the be-all/end-all, but 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 2017 is more than solid. I'd take that from my #2-3 starter any year.

 

It isn't the end of an argument or a start...it is completely irrelevant. That record was 100% a reflection of our offense (and our bullpen to a lesser extent) when he pitched. Well, and the fact he started 33 games, which is very unlikely. He was given 6+ runs of support 11 times in 2017. Predictably we won all of them.

 

In what I would call more normal circumstances (3-5 runs of support) he was 6-5. Average...which pretty much sums up Davies. Pretty much what you are saying is, "I would like my offense to score 6+ runs every game for my #3 starter." Because in about half of Davies starts in 2017 he was pretty meaningless no matter how he pitched. At his best Davies is a solid #3...but that's about as much as he has ever shown.

 

My prime example is Braden Looper who went an impressive 14-7 on a terrible team (2009) despite a 5.22 ERA, 10.4 H9, and 39 homers given up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know pitcher wins are not the be-all/end-all, but 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 2017 is more than solid. I'd take that from my #2-3 starter any year.

 

It isn't the end of an argument or a start...it is completely irrelevant. That record was 100% a reflection of our offense (and our bullpen to a lesser extent) when he pitched. Well, and the fact he started 33 games, which is very unlikely. He was given 6+ runs of support 11 times in 2017. Predictably we won all of them.

 

In what I would call more normal circumstances (3-5 runs of support) he was 6-5. Average...which pretty much sums up Davies. Pretty much what you are saying is, "I would like my offense to score 6+ runs every game for my #3 starter." Because in about half of Davies starts in 2017 he was pretty meaningless no matter how he pitched. At his best Davies is a solid #3...but that's about as much as he has ever shown.

 

My prime example is Braden Looper who went an impressive 14-7 on a terrible team (2009) despite a 5.22 ERA, 10.4 H9, and 39 homers given up.

 

Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.

[MrTPlush]

Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.

 

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.

 

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.

 

I guess I maybe have a soft spot for guys who are never going to light up the radar gun, but who know how to pitch. If we can get the 2017 versions of Davies and Anderson, this rotation is going to be quite strong.

[Brew crew 92]

Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.

 

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.

 

Brewers staff goes seven deep with strength. I think Davies a quality number 4 The other six being better than that this year. Easily the most underrated starting staff in the National League.

[MrTPlush]

Well Davies went 17-9 on a solid team with a 3.90 ERA, 9.6 H9 and 20 HRs given up in 191 innings. Comparing him to Looper is apples and oranges, as he was demonstrably better as a 24 year old, which followed a solid showing at a 23 year old. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young candidate, but he's a proven solid mid-rotation guy, and given the cycle of pure crap this team has cycled through the last 20 years in the rotation, I'm very happy to have him.

 

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.

 

Brewers staff goes seven deep with strength. I think Davies a quality number 4 The other six being better than that this year. Easily the most underrated starting staff in the National League.

 

That really is the single most important thing about this team outside of the bullpen. It is the reason we will win the NL Central if it happens...arguably was the reason we won it last year. Over the course of 162 games a MAJOR chunk will be guys filling in when one of the Top 5 get injured. The ability to have multiple guys who are quality MLB pitchers to step is what will take us from say 90 wins to 95 wins. It is huge. So many teams, even contenders, are forced to use dumpster fire guys when a starter goes out. Hopefully we never find that problem this year.

[Brew crew 92]

Wondering why chase’s Start skipped the other day?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wondering why chase’s Start skipped the other day?

 

Pretty sure he was the opposing pitcher in the "sim" game that Nelson pitched.

[Brew crew 92]

Wondering why chase’s Start skipped the other day?

 

Pretty sure he was the opposing pitcher in the "sim" game that Nelson pitched.

 

Yes, I think your right. Thanks,I feel better now.

[coolhandluke121]

Walter Johnson

Roger Clemens

Zach Davies

 

What are RHP's with a streak of 5 consecutive road starts with at least 6 innings in each start and no earned runs surrendered, Alex?

 

If there's a better stat out there for evaluating Zach's impact, I'd like to know what it is.

[Ennder]

I will just add that our rotation will make or break the team. I can easily see this rotation being the worst in the NL Central, I can also see it being adequate, I can't really see it being the strength though. The best case scenario is that the bullpen protects the rotation and covers up the weakness.

[OnTheBlack]

I will just add that our rotation will make or break the team. I can easily see this rotation being the worst in the NL Central, I can also see it being adequate, I can't really see it being the strength though. The best case scenario is that the bullpen protects the rotation and covers up the weakness.

 

 

I'm a bit worried it's going to be our undoing as well. There are area's to be optimistic. Again, people forget that when Nelson went down, people were debating who we should start in a one game playoff or a game one, Anderson or Nelson. The answer was fairly obvious, but the point is that Anderson isn't long removed from being a really effective pitcher.

 

Hopefully Nelson can be back by May, Chacin can produce like he has the previous two years.

 

But this division has just gotten so much better this off-season and if the Reds get lucky with their rotation, one that has quite a bit of upside and the Brewers under performs, a 4th place finish is as likely as a 1st place finish.

 

 

Ender, any optimism on your part that we get anything out of the farm system this year? Could Brown make a jump this year and end up playing a role in the pen as a multi-inning reliever similar to some of the young guys last year did? I'd guess he's a year away, but I thought the same about Peralta going into last year...and to a lesser degree Burnes.

[Ennder]

Sure that could happen. Everyone in the rotation is just risky. Chacin feels like the only sure thing and that probably isn't what you want to hear if you are a fan of this team. I wish we had signed one more boring safe guy just for filler in case we get the bad Anderson and Nelson takes longer than expected to come back. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff all look like they could be fine options but they are all sort of innings limited and are probably going to have growing pains. In a year where I feel we have a championship bullpen/offense, I wish the SP wasn't so iffy.

 

I don't want to sound like too much of a downer though. The entire divisions pitching is iffy. That Cubs rotation could be just awful if Lester pitches to his peripherals and Darvish doesn't come back. The Cardinals have a ton of upside but they have a lot of risk and the Reds might only have 1 major league quality starter if things go poorly for them. The entire division is kind of iffy for pitching. I think the Pirates will be fine but I think their offense is going to be bad.

[Brew crew 92]

I will just add that our rotation will make or break the team. I can easily see this rotation being the worst in the NL Central, I can also see it being adequate, I can't really see it being the strength though. The best case scenario is that the bullpen protects the rotation and covers up the weakness.

 

 

I'm a bit worried it's going to be our undoing as well. There are area's to be optimistic. Again, people forget that when Nelson went down, people were debating who we should start in a one game playoff or a game one, Anderson or Nelson. The answer was fairly obvious, but the point is that Anderson isn't long removed from being a really effective pitcher.

 

Hopefully Nelson can be back by May, Chacin can produce like he has the previous two years.

 

But this division has just gotten so much better this off-season and if the Reds get lucky with their rotation, one that has quite a bit of upside and the Brewers under performs, a 4th place finish is as likely as a 1st place finish.

 

 

Ender, any optimism on your part that we get anything out of the farm system this year? Could Brown make a jump this year and end up playing a role in the pen as a multi-inning reliever similar to some of the young guys last year did? I'd guess he's a year away, but I thought the same about Peralta going into last year...and to a lesser degree Burnes.

 

I will say some people are underrating the reds. Last year they played 500 ball from May thruAugust after they fired price. With the moves during the off-season Strengthening their rotation and lineup, they will be a very dangerous team.

[KeithStone53151]

Just wondering if anyone has heard anything or speculates someone as the opening day starter? Is Chacin lined up for that role? Also, CC confirmed that Nelson won't be ready for opening day...that pretty much leaves 5 spots for 6 guys then right?

[OldHeidelberg]

Just wondering if anyone has heard anything or speculates someone as the opening day starter? Is Chacin lined up for that role? Also, CC confirmed that Nelson won't be ready for opening day...that pretty much leaves 5 spots for 6 guys then right?

 

Yep, if that's the case with Jimmy then I think it really comes down to Peralta or Woodruff for final spot since all indications have been that Burnes will have a spot. I would think Chacin is a lock for opening day.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Starting to wonder if Chase might be sent down to start the season. I don't normally put much faith in spring training stats but there is a lot of competition and Freddy has been pitching well.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 locks for rotation have to be Chacin, Burnes, Peralta. Davies is probably 4th best. Anderson 5th only because Woodruff would be a far better option out of the bullpen. Nelson when ready will take over whichever of Davies/Anderson is struggling.

 

As for Innings limits you have Guerra and Woodruff to swap Burnes or Nelson etc. I don't think Peralta will necessary be on a limit at least for the regular season. He becomes worrisome when the Playoffs begin. These guys have options they'll be rotated as needed. You'll obviously be running your best 3 pitchers if/when you make the playoffs as what the season indicated. With plenty of quality bullpen arms to ride multiple innings.

[Tbadder]

The pitching staff scares me. I really do think it comes down to

1) at least two of Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes need to work out and taking regular turns

2) Davies staying healthy and regaining form

3) Chacin be 2018 Chacin

 

I’m not counting on Nelson. I’m guessing he’s strictly a spot starter and sometime long reliever. I’m guessing he gets 80 innings or less this year, that’s a pure guess of course. Andersen looks scary. He might be a lost cause on a team that has aspirations.

 

The bullpen...well, I just can’t imagine a repeat performance they were so awesome. There’s gotta be some regression. Jeremy is worrisome. I do think Claudio will be useful, but how long will Knebel be ineffective this year until he finds himself. And who is going take his place when it happens. Speculation? Naturally, but it seems so plausible. Now if the rotation works out and the big three in the pen are dominant then the Cards and Cubs have something to worry about.

[Brew crew 92]

3 locks for rotation have to be Chacin, Burnes, Peralta. Davies is probably 4th best. Anderson 5th only because Woodruff would be a far better option out of the bullpen. Nelson when ready will take over whichever of Davies/Anderson is struggling.

 

As for Innings limits you have Guerra and Woodruff to swap Burnes or Nelson etc. I don't think Peralta will necessary be on a limit at least for the regular season. He becomes worrisome when the Playoffs begin. These guys have options they'll be rotated as needed. You'll obviously be running your best 3 pitchers if/when you make the playoffs as what the season indicated. With plenty of quality bullpen arms to ride multiple innings.

 

I agree with woody to pen. No Jeffress at least early in the year gonna hurt but woody and his 98 mph pen FB help mitigate the loss. As far as rotation, unless Anderson is absolutely shelled in his final 2spring training starts he’ll make the rotation. Along with Davies, Chacin, Burnes and Peralta. Outside of a possible Kimbrel addition creating a super pen, this is how I hope it shakes out.

[Mr Southpaw]

I think it will fall very close to this for Opening Day. I think we can win 60% with that Starting staff, considering our bullpen is so strong with two closers. There is a lot of play with names not listed on the Opening Day roster. Nelson can be inserted as a 2 as soon as he is ready with whoever is the weak link being removed. Jeffress and Barnes are also available in the wings to back up any failures in the Bullpen.

 

Starters

 

1. Chacin

2. Burnes

3. Anderson

4. Davies

5. Peralta

 

Pen

 

C. Hader

C. Knebel

8. Woodruff

7. Albers

6. Claudio

5. T Williams

L. Guerra

 

That Leaves

 

Nelson

Barnes

Houser

Jeffress

Petricka

[monty57]

The Brewers will probably go with Peralta in the rotation and Woodruff in the pen, but I would like to see one of them in the AAA rotation to stay stretched out as a starter to replace the first guy who gets injured. I guess Nelson's timetable will probably play a role as to whether or not this might be important. If they think he'll be ready a couple of weeks into the season, it wouldn't be as important to have a good "insurance policy" ready in AAA.

 

I am torn on Woodruff. I'd like to see him get a chance to start, but it is nice that we have so much excess pitching talent that a guy with his potential may not be able to make the cut. For much of the Brewers' existence he would be slated as our #1 or #2 at this point. Essentially, if he's in the pen it's because he fell behind Burnes and Peralta on the depth charts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers will probably go with Peralta in the rotation and Woodruff in the pen, but I would like to see one of them in the AAA rotation to stay stretched out as a starter to replace the first guy who gets injured. I guess Nelson's timetable will probably play a role as to whether or not this might be important. If they think he'll be ready a couple of weeks into the season, it wouldn't be as important to have a good "insurance policy" ready in AAA.

 

I am torn on Woodruff. I'd like to see him get a chance to start, but it is nice that we have so much excess pitching talent that a guy with his potential may not be able to make the cut. For much of the Brewers' existence he would be slated as our #1 or #2 at this point. Essentially, if he's in the pen it's because he fell behind Burnes and Peralta on the depth charts.

 

I would say that if Woodruff is in the pen, it isn't that he fell behind so much as he's proven that he can be an impact arm in the pen as well. Burnes was great out of the pen as well, but Peralta doesn't have a track record there. You're right ... these are rare, strange times we're in having not only depth, but quality depth in the rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers will probably go with Peralta in the rotation and Woodruff in the pen, but I would like to see one of them in the AAA rotation to stay stretched out as a starter to replace the first guy who gets injured. I guess Nelson's timetable will probably play a role as to whether or not this might be important. If they think he'll be ready a couple of weeks into the season, it wouldn't be as important to have a good "insurance policy" ready in AAA.

 

I am torn on Woodruff. I'd like to see him get a chance to start, but it is nice that we have so much excess pitching talent that a guy with his potential may not be able to make the cut. For much of the Brewers' existence he would be slated as our #1 or #2 at this point. Essentially, if he's in the pen it's because he fell behind Burnes and Peralta on the depth charts.

 

I agree with you on Peralta in the rotation and Woodruff to the pen. Disagree that either in AAA To get stretched out, we don’t have that luxury, not with our daunting schedule to begin the year we’re going to need all of our bullets. Tomlin in AAA as filler til Nelson.