2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Lathund]

From what I recall reading, 400 IP is right around where ERA starts being more predictive of future performance than FIP, so he probably is one of those guys.

[Ennder]

From what I recall reading, 400 IP is right around where ERA starts being more predictive of future performance than FIP, so he probably is one of those guys.

 

I think it is 500 and that is just when it starts to become meaningfully predictive at all, not in relation to FIP. ERA is just an awful stat to judge a pitcher by.

[Lathund]

From what I recall reading, 400 IP is right around where ERA starts being more predictive of future performance than FIP, so he probably is one of those guys.

 

I think it is 500 and that is just when it starts to become meaningfully predictive at all, not in relation to FIP. ERA is just an awful stat to judge a pitcher by.

 

ERA is a poor stat indeed, which is why it surprised me when I saw that 400 IP number, I would have expected it to be higher. Before I made that post I tried to find the article I read it in to make sure I had it right, I had remembered it as being part of the articles launching SIERA but that wasn't it and I couldn't find it. It may have been something along the lines of looking only at players who had remained with the same team, which would naturally reduce the effects of ballparks and quality of defense, but that's just speculation. Either way I remember it because it surprised me, and the data and methodoly seemed sound so it stuck out.

[HarveysWBs]

From Bob Nightengale on Twitter:

The #Brewers' biggest regret over the winter has to be their decision not to re-sign Wade Miley, who has been fabulous for the #Astros, and earning just $4.5 million. He badly wanted to return to Milwaukee. They grabbed Jordan Lyles today but still out for more pitching.

 

Granted, hindsight is 20/20, and Miley was working some smoke and mirrors last year, but still...dangit. Reading that hurts a bit.

[pacopete4]

I don’t trust a single word that guy tweets. He’s the village idiot as far as I’m concerned.

[brooks_quichenick]

I don’t trust a single word that guy tweets. He’s the village idiot as far as I’m concerned.

 

Yea I always assume the opposite of whatever Nightengale says is true.

[JohnBriggs12]

Thinking way out of the box, what about building up Ethan Small's innings and him being an option to slide into a starter's role in Milwaukee later on this year? When he was drafted it was said by many that he was close to being a finished product. He's a man among boys in the rookie league in Arizona, sort of like what a major leaguer would look like rehabbing there.

[Warning Track Power]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

[B-Train]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

 

Add in FF and Knebel and Wahl. Looking ahead to next season, the pen could rival the 2018 group. Faria may be in the plans to be a rotation guy.

[bjkrautk]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

 

Between Pomeranz, Faria, and Lyles, the Brewers acquired 3 players who have made a combined 41 MLB starts this season. Between these 3 and Houser, I think the club made the determination the top-of-the line starters were too expensive...so we can expect a healthy number of bullpen games down the stretch, with relievers capable of pitching an extended number of innings twice a week (assuming Gio is truly day-to-day).

[tmwiese55]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

 

Add in FF and Knebel and Wahl. Looking ahead to next season, the pen could rival the 2018 group. Faria may be in the plans to be a rotation guy.

 

Drawing a blank on FF? What about Rasmussen (I think that's who it was) who was getting so much attention a few months ago as possibly coming up this year?

[Lathund]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

 

Add in FF and Knebel and Wahl. Looking ahead to next season, the pen could rival the 2018 group. Faria may be in the plans to be a rotation guy.

 

Drawing a blank on FF? What about Rasmussen (I think that's who it was) who was getting so much attention a few months ago as possibly coming up this year?

 

I'm presuming it's Fastball Freddy.

[yourout]

I'm sorry but I won't be getting excited about Brewer pitching until they have a new pitching coach.

 

It is the 2nd most important coaching position on the team.

[Outlander]

Reality of the Brewers trades over the past week is that they could have a quietly good bullpen:

 

LHP Hader

LHP Pomeranz

RHP Faria

RHP Lyles

RHP Black

 

Not to mention Jeffress, Guerra, etc...Unfortunately, they aren't all going into the pen.

 

Add in FF and Knebel and Wahl. Looking ahead to next season, the pen could rival the 2018 group. Faria may be in the plans to be a rotation guy.

 

Drawing a blank on FF? What about Rasmussen (I think that's who it was) who was getting so much attention a few months ago as possibly coming up this year?

Rasmussen is still being used every 5th day or so like a starter. Calling him up is fan speculation, no indication from anybody within the Brewers they would consider that this year.

[tmwiese55]

Thank you. Yes and even of that list in WTP's post there is a lot of improvement or proving it that needs to happen. Like, we just can't all of a sudden assume those guys will suddenly be good when they've kinda haven't been so far this year. I know our coaches must see something and we have to trust and think positive but it kinda takes a lot of squinting

[TJseven7]

It's been a strange year.

Woodruff arrived 3.75. Davies is having a great year 3.56. Chase is having a great year 3.81 as a starter. Gio doing Gio things 3.48.

Hader 2.29. Peralta in the pen 2.52. Houser in the pen 1.47.

Albers Gerra Claudio have been acceptable.

 

Chacin fell off a cliff, Jeffress fell off a cliff, Knebel lost for the year.

 

EVERYTHING else we threw at the wall flamed out in epic fashion.

Last year there was Miley, Jennings, Barnes, Burnes, Lopez, Lyles all sub 4. Everything that came out of the wood work seemed to do an adequate job.

Even Taylor Williams was an acceptable 4.25 ERA.

This year, everyone they've tried has been Logan and Drake.

 

Either we are seeing two back to back polar opposite statistical flukes.

Or this is the DJ effect.

 

There are too many good ERAs on this staff for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

There are too many decent ERAs on this staff behind them for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

Throwing stuff at the wall this year has been gas can after gas can.

 

Just go look at Brewers baseball reference and look at the 2018 eras and the 2019 era. It's stark.

[Ennder]

I'm sorry but I won't be getting excited about Brewer pitching until they have a new pitching coach.

 

It is the 2nd most important coaching position on the team.

 

I find it really odd that you would blame the pitching coach. Davies and Anderson are as good or better than they were last season. Woodruff has been very solid. Peralta has been about the same. Hader has been about the same. Gio has pitched well. Corbin Burnes and Chacin being bad are really the two focal points of the pitching. Burnes had no real track record so I can't blame that on the coach. Chacin had one good season that the peripherals didn't support. There is just so little narrative to support any of this being the coaches fault. I will quote myself from March in this thread even though the first line makes me look really bad~. We either knew or should have known that the rotation was a weakness going into the season, has nothing to do with the coach.

 

"Chacin is the one guy I have faith in.

 

Chase Anderson had a 5.22 FIP last season and a 5.09 in 2016, he easily can be replacement level. Burnes has never started a regular season game in the majors so his range of outcomes are huge. Peralta had a 4.25 ERA, can't pitch from the stretch and relies way too much on his fastball. Woodruff's FIPs were in the mid 4's in the minors. Davies has been all over the place for his entire career This rotation could easily be just terrible, there is no comfort level that it has 7 above average pitchers like you suggest. In fact there is almost no way that is actually true. Nelson cannot be trusted for anything on the season, we have no clue if he is going to get healthy and if he does if he will pitch at full strength.

 

I know I'm looking at the bleak side of things but that side does exist, this could be one of the worst rotations in baseball and it would not surprise me at all. It could also be above average. It is a very volatile rotation. What is painfully clear though is that the rotation is going to have to be babied. None of them are safe the 3rd time through the order and none of them are particularly efficient. We are going to be dipping into the bullpen in the 6th inning on a regular basis and many games in the 5th inning. The bullpen is going to have to save the rotation to make this work.

 

Maybe we just look at baseball differently but this team went as far as it did despite the rotation last season, it was easily the weakest part of the team. We protected it with an overextended bullpen and got lucky that Miley was so good. Overall it was the weakness of the team and I expect the same to be true this season.

"

[JosephC]

Stearns may have just set the record for the highest number of crappy pitchers ever traded for in a 48 hour window. Total the 2019 MLB numbers for these guys and it's so bad that one just has to laugh.

 

ERA = 5.33

WHIP = 1.56

FIP = 5.07 (assuming Fangraphs FIP constant of 3.23 is correct)

[djoctagone]

the brewers have seven more games before the next off day.

 

three optioned pitchers who were eligible to be recalled at any point because they had been optioned for at least 10 days are no longer on the 40-man roster: jacob barnes, marcos diplan and donnie hart.

 

barring replacing a player put on the injured list, these are the only pitchers that are eligible for recall as of today:

 

ray black (he has been on optional assignment since 16 july with the giants when he was acquired and optioned by the brewers)

trey supak

aaron wilkerson

 

these players must wait 10 days from the date of their optional assignment before being eligible for recall:

 

burch smith (optioned 24 july)

corbin burnes (optioned 31 july)

jake faria (optioned 31 july)

taylor williams (optioned 1 august)

 

bottom line: the brewers need their starters to go deep the next seven days and keep the bullpen from being overworked in order to justify carrying seven outfielders on their 40-man.

[wntrtxn21]

It's been a strange year.

Woodruff arrived 3.75. Davies is having a great year 3.56. Chase is having a great year 3.81 as a starter. Gio doing Gio things 3.48.

Hader 2.29. Peralta in the pen 2.52. Houser in the pen 1.47.

Albers Gerra Claudio have been acceptable.

 

Chacin fell off a cliff, Jeffress fell off a cliff, Knebel lost for the year.

 

EVERYTHING else we threw at the wall flamed out in epic fashion.

Last year there was Miley, Jennings, Barnes, Burnes, Lopez, Lyles all sub 4. Everything that came out of the wood work seemed to do an adequate job.

Even Taylor Williams was an acceptable 4.25 ERA.

This year, everyone they've tried has been Logan and Drake.

 

Either we are seeing two back to back polar opposite statistical flukes.

Or this is the DJ effect.

 

There are too many good ERAs on this staff for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

There are too many decent ERAs on this staff behind them for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

Throwing stuff at the wall this year has been gas can after gas can.

 

Just go look at Brewers baseball reference and look at the 2018 eras and the 2019 era. It's stark.

 

I think the ERA thing is misleading you. Davies has a good ERA, but his starts have been erratic. Since June: 57 IPs (11 Starts) - 66 hits - 32 ERs - 20 BBs - 3&4 record. Hader has lost 4 games and given up leads in others by allowing the long ball. Then look at Houser's starts, Burnes' starts, FF's starts, Chacin's starts and you see why the 4.69 runs per game given up. Good news is help may be on the way in the pen.

[Ennder]

Burnes alone has raised the entire teams ERA by 0.12. Just removing him makes things look a lot better. If Burnes hadn't pitched an inning all year we are at 4.52 which puts us 15th in baseball for team ERA. One other thing to keep in mind is runs are up league wide. The stats should look a little uglier this year.

[yourout]

Burnes alone has raised the entire teams ERA by 0.12. Just removing him makes things look a lot better. If Burnes hadn't pitched an inning all year we are at 4.52 which puts us 15th in baseball for team ERA. One other thing to keep in mind is runs are up league wide. The stats should look a little uglier this year.

 

Due to the DH you have to look at era and runs per game by division.

Most AL teams will have higher ERAs

 

Brewers are 13th out of 15 teams in the NL in both era and runs allowed per game

[wntrtxn21]

It's been a strange year.

Woodruff arrived 3.75. Davies is having a great year 3.56. Chase is having a great year 3.81 as a starter. Gio doing Gio things 3.48.

Hader 2.29. Peralta in the pen 2.52. Houser in the pen 1.47.

Albers Gerra Claudio have been acceptable.

 

Chacin fell off a cliff, Jeffress fell off a cliff, Knebel lost for the year.

 

EVERYTHING else we threw at the wall flamed out in epic fashion.

Last year there was Miley, Jennings, Barnes, Burnes, Lopez, Lyles all sub 4. Everything that came out of the wood work seemed to do an adequate job.

Even Taylor Williams was an acceptable 4.25 ERA.

This year, everyone they've tried has been Logan and Drake.

 

Either we are seeing two back to back polar opposite statistical flukes.

Or this is the DJ effect.

 

There are too many good ERAs on this staff for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

There are too many decent ERAs on this staff behind them for this team to allow 4.69 runs per game.

Throwing stuff at the wall this year has been gas can after gas can.

 

Just go look at Brewers baseball reference and look at the 2018 eras and the 2019 era. It's stark.

 

I think the ERA thing is misleading you. Davies has a good ERA, but his starts have been erratic. Since June: 57 IPs (11 Starts) - 66 hits - 32 ERs - 20 BBs - 3&4 record. Hader has lost 4 games and given up leads in others by allowing the long ball. Then look at Houser's starts, Burnes' starts, FF's starts, Chacin's starts and you see why the 4.69 runs per game given up. Good news is help may be on the way in the pen.

 

Hader gives up another HR (his 11th so far this season) to put the Brewers down once again! Council using Hader for a third consecutive day is lunacy. Hader's FB speed and movement goes down considerably on the third day in a row. Since he has become basically a one-pitch pitcher, he is meat to MLB hitters when misused.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jimmy Nelson's line from his AAA rehab appearance today against the Iowa Cubs: 3 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

 

So ... that's promising. I know a lot of members here have written off Nelson. I'm not ready to do that. The guy is just too hard of a worker. If there is one guy in this organization that would be capable of reinventing himself as a totally different pitcher, and still be able to make it work, it's him.

[tmwiese55]

Jimmy Nelson's line from his AAA rehab appearance today against the Iowa Cubs: 3 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

 

So ... that's promising. I know a lot of members here have written off Nelson. I'm not ready to do that. The guy is just too hard of a worker. If there is one guy in this organization that would be capable of reinventing himself as a totally different pitcher, and still be able to make it work, it's him.

 

Agree. Of course not banking on anything this year. but another offseason to get healthy and strengthen it and who knows on next year. Anyone have an velocity data on his recent strong showings in AAA, if that's even available out there? Hopefully he shows some good signs in an assumed Sept call up