2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Brew crew 92]

This pitching staff is not quite as bad as it appears to be. My biggest concern isn’t the rotation: Lately it’s pitched well. It’s not the bullpen: Stearns can improve it soon with an acquisition.

 

My biggest concern is Counsell, and his terrible decision making:

 

- Taking Anderson out the last 2 starts way to early. He was rolling in each of those starts, absolutely no reason to take him out, but he did anyhow, which directly led to 2 losses.

 

- his overuse of Guerra, which, imo, has directly led to his recent ineffectiveness.

 

- And then we have the Claudio conundrum. Do I even need to comment here? Imo, Claudio should be optioned, to protect Counsell from continuing to misuse him. In hindsight, Stearns giving up anything, let alone a top 40 pick for him was a mistake. CC and Loogy’s just don’t mix.

 

Stearns can help Counsell proof this staff by adding a horse starter(unlikely) and or pen arm or two.

[Oxy]

ERA is a mostly useless stat for predicting future outcomes...It is a fine stat for describing what has happened while a pitcher is on the mound (although not necessarily that descriptive for how well he has pitched...but better than nothing)

[Pugger]

This pitching staff is not quite as bad as it appears to be. My biggest concern isn’t the rotation: Lately it’s pitched well. It’s not the bullpen: Stearns can improve it soon with an acquisition.

 

My biggest concern is Counsell, and his terrible decision making:

 

- Taking Anderson out the last 2 starts way to early. He was rolling in each of those starts, absolutely no reason to take him out, but he did anyhow, which directly led to 2 losses.

 

- his overuse of Guerra, which, imo, has directly led to his recent ineffectiveness.

 

- And then we have the Claudio conundrum. Do I even need to comment here? Imo, Claudio should be optioned, to protect Counsell from continuing to misuse him. In hindsight, Stearns giving up anything, let alone a top 40 pick for him was a mistake. CC and Loogy’s just don’t mix.

 

Stearns can help Counsell proof this staff by adding a horse starter(unlikely) and or pen arm or two.

 

Yes, why is Counsell so afraid to keep a starter in who is on a roll the 3rd time thru the order??? I don't know what CC sees in Claudio either.

[jjfanec]

This pitching staff is not quite as bad as it appears to be. My biggest concern isn’t the rotation: Lately it’s pitched well. It’s not the bullpen: Stearns can improve it soon with an acquisition.

 

My biggest concern is Counsell, and his terrible decision making:

 

- Taking Anderson out the last 2 starts way to early. He was rolling in each of those starts, absolutely no reason to take him out, but he did anyhow, which directly led to 2 losses.

 

- his overuse of Guerra, which, imo, has directly led to his recent ineffectiveness.

 

- And then we have the Claudio conundrum. Do I even need to comment here? Imo, Claudio should be optioned, to protect Counsell from continuing to misuse him. In hindsight, Stearns giving up anything, let alone a top 40 pick for him was a mistake. CC and Loogy’s just don’t mix.

 

Stearns can help Counsell proof this staff by adding a horse starter(unlikely) and or pen arm or two.

 

If you are not concerned about the bullpen I don't know what to tell you. Right now it isn't good at all. Guerra is overused bc our options are bad. Burnes is terrible. Jeffress is not good. Jackson /Hart/other Guerra etc are all bad. Albers is ok. How is that not a problem?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Yes, why is Counsell so afraid to keep a starter in who is on a roll the 3rd time thru the order???

 

Because aside from the true elites, the numbers show that most starters drop off precipitously the 3rd time a hitter gets a look at them. There are a number of reasons why and most of them are common sense (hitter acclimation and timing, fatigue). The problem for fans is how do they accept what they're not given a chance to see. It's hard for people to assume a pitcher rolling along would suddenly get hit hard the 3rd time through but its happens far more often than not. The proof is in statistics. The best answer I can give to point to success of this limited-look strategy is 2018. But it requires a lock down pen. They had one in 2018 and this year they don't. The other key difference being the loss of DJ, specifically his ability to call pitches in orchestra with the defensive alignment. They aren't nearly as good in terms of defensive runs saved this year. Batters are not hitting balls right at our defenders as often this year. And calling pitches that aren't as well in concert with defensive alignment has a big role in the dropoff of the team's pitching this year.

[benji]

This completely makes sense and it worked great last year. Problem is this year the bullpen is not near as good or reliable as last year. Now you have to make a choice or rolling with an Anderson who is pitching decently or going with several bullpen guys who have not been consistently effective from Albers Burnes Guerra Claudio Freddy even JJ. That is what the struggle is this year.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brewmann04]

Yes CC needs to adjust to the issues of the Bullpen stay with a hot pitcher maybe a bit longer.

[wntrtxn21]

Yes CC needs to adjust to the issues of the Bullpen stay with a hot pitcher maybe a bit longer.

 

I totally agree, what could it hurt? CC's bullpen is terrible right now. Once again Burnes is awful. For the year: 46 IPs - 66 hits - 46 ERs. I don't care what his "potential" is or how "great his stuff" is. MLB is a results league and right now Burnes is horrendous. He belongs in AAA. Albers gets killed for the second consecutive time too. Jeffress is a shadow of what he was last year. Guerra has been over used and has been getting shelled since the end of May. Claudio is iffy at best, Peralta is up and down just like he was as a starter. AAA guys that have been brought up have been terrible. CC has very little to choose from when Hader is unavailable. The season is slipping away fairly quickly unless Stearns can get some help.

[pacopete4]

Do other clubs have situations like Burnes? He’s never given a glimpse of anything remotely like this during his short time in our system. Just simply amazing. Feels like a Brewer curse that they just cannot cultivate good pitchers.

[brewmann04]

I am not sure what went wrong with Corbin but if the Brewers still want him to be a future starter then he needs to go to San Antonio.

[yourout]

Before I write off our young arms I want a proven big league pitching coach to work with them not a AAA guy that's had no big league experience as a pitching coach

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The issue isn't pulling the plug on the starters too early. Too many assuming that there would be no dropoff for the starter going deeper. History says otherwise for all of these guys. Ask yourself - do you think CC isn't tempted to have these guys go longer? What do you think prompts him to take out a guy who has gone 5-6 innings and given up only 1 run? The answer is in the data. These guys all have a track record of giving up 800-1000 OPS vs hitters their 3rd time through a lineup. The only exception is Woodruff who this year was given a longer leash and has responded well with a .651 OPS against in 111 batters faced during a 3rd time through.

 

The real issue with this team is the huge decline in defensive runs saved. Shifts are great if the pitch caller knows how to sequence pitches that work in concert with defensive alignment. Derek Johnson was/is an absolute master at it. Remember how it was shown you could take a pitcher from the worst teams at DRS and put them on the Brewers last year, and have them throw with the same effectiveness and shave 1 to even 1.5 runs off their ERA because of proper placed defenders? Well the Brewers aren't nearly as good this year at marrying the right pitch selection with defensive alignment. Many more batted balls are being hit where defenders aren't. Shifts are one aspect. The other equally important aspect is pitching to the way the defense is aligned. Derek Johnson called pitches from the bench last year. If pitch selection doesn't jive with defensive alignment, those shifts are much less useful. Anyway, here's the difference between 2018 and 2019 for the Brewers...

 

2018 Defensive Runs Saved: 96 (ranked 2nd in MLB)

2019 Defensive Runs Saved: 27 (on pace for 47, ranked 9th)

 

Here are the numbers for the Reds...

 

2018 Reds DRS: -3 (ranked 19th)

2019 Reds DRS: 37 (on pace for 67, ranked 4th)

 

Those are some darn big swings. The Brewers are on pace to save 49 FEWER runs while Cincinnati is set to save 70 MORE runs.. That kind of run giving/saving can do a lot to change a pitchers ERA. Want to know why the Reds pitching has improved so much while the Brewers has taken a step back? Look no further than the projected 119 run swing indicated right there if these paces are maintained.

[JosephC]

I don't know how the Brewers can leave Corbin Burnes on the 25-man roster. Time to ship him to AAA. I think it's time to give Taylor Williams another chance. If they are going to keep Williams on the 40-man roster, now seems like a pretty good time to use him.

[brewmann04]

i agree Burnes needs to be sent down at this point.

[Ennder]

ERA is a mostly useless stat for predicting future outcomes...It is a fine stat for describing what has happened while a pitcher is on the mound (although not necessarily that descriptive for how well he has pitched...but better than nothing)

 

The issue with ERA is it is a team stat. The defense matters, the bullpen matters, shifts matter, how the team handles pitching around players etc matter. ERA is not at all descriptive of how a pitcher actually pitched, it is just a result The better pitcher you are the more controllable it is but if one pitcher has a 5 ERA and another has a 4 there is no clear answer as to which was the better pitcher. Context dictates it more than anything.

[tmwiese55]

I'm still surprised to catch up on this thread and see people still thinking that losing the pitching coach has nothing to do with this.

[bjkrautk]

Burns to the IL with shoulder irritation, which is fitting since his shoulder has been irritating Brewers fans most of the season.

 

Burch Smith is being recalled, so pitching WOAHS not exactly SOLVVD.

[Thurston Fluff]

This completely makes sense and it worked great last year. Problem is this year the bullpen is not near as good or reliable as last year. Now you have to make a choice or rolling with an Anderson who is pitching decently or going with several bullpen guys who have not been consistently effective from Albers Burnes Guerra Claudio Freddy even JJ. That is what the struggle is this year.

 

That is going to be a problem many years. Bullpens are always hit and miss. You can even have the same pitchers in the pen from one year to the next and get vastly different results. The problem is there just aren't many relievers who are consistently reliable for a whole career.

 

Warning, bit of an unrelated tangent coming.

 

If you rely on the four or five inning starter philosophy you are by definition going to rely on your pen more. That means the philosophy itself is given to more volatility from year to year. The good news, long term anyway, is that volatility usually swings the other way as often as not. So if the Brewers use the same strategy of finding cheap 4-5 inning type starters year in and year out, they can always stay in their payroll range and be competitive half the time.

The alternative seems to be overpay for average at best starters or trade your farm for a year or two of a great pitcher and suck for five years after he leaves. For myself I'll take my chances this way.

[jjfanec]

I'm still surprised to catch up on this thread and see people still thinking that losing the pitching coach has nothing to do with this.

 

I haven't read anyone saying the pitching coach didn't matter. Just that there are a lot of reasons for the struggles and that is obvious that Hook is not playing with the same deck as DJ. How good would the Brewers have been last year with Knebel out, Jeffress hurt than ineffective and no Miley? They would have struggled. There are a few pitchers who are definitely pitching better under Hook for whatever reason.

[homer]

Before I write off our young arms I want a proven big league pitching coach to work with them not a AAA guy that's had no big league experience as a pitching coach

 

Derek Johnson didn't have big league experience when the Brewers hired him. I think the job before us was as minor league pitching coordinator with the Cubs.

[yourout]

Before I write off our young arms I want a proven big league pitching coach to work with them not a AAA guy that's had no big league experience as a pitching coach

 

Derek Johnson didn't have big league experience when the Brewers hired him. I think the job before us was as minor league pitching coordinator with the Cubs.

 

But when he was hired we were not a playoff team so you could roll the dice. In the current circumstance we had no business not having a guy with big league experience.

[geargroy]

What's up with Wilkerson. He vanished again after giving up a run. Albers is still here what gives?

[tmwiese55]

I'm still surprised to catch up on this thread and see people still thinking that losing the pitching coach has nothing to do with this.

 

I haven't read anyone saying the pitching coach didn't matter. Just that there are a lot of reasons for the struggles and that is obvious that Hook is not playing with the same deck as DJ. How good would the Brewers have been last year with Knebel out, Jeffress hurt than ineffective and no Miley? They would have struggled. There are a few pitchers who are definitely pitching better under Hook for whatever reason.

 

There was still people making the exact point just last page, whatever that was, page 65. I don't know how people can think it after this big of a sample. Cincy still holding on at #3 in baseball even after playing in COL last weekend.

 

Side note, maybe there is someone we could poach of TBs staff this offseason. They're operating in the same forward thinking mindset we are trying and of course getting great results. Not necessarily pitching coach as I'm sure they'll value him a lot, but maybe analytics people, who knows.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What's up with Wilkerson. He vanished again after giving up a run. Albers is still here what gives?

 

He was optioned to San Antonio July 4.

[jjfanec]

I'm still surprised to catch up on this thread and see people still thinking that losing the pitching coach has nothing to do with this.

 

I haven't read anyone saying the pitching coach didn't matter. Just that there are a lot of reasons for the struggles and that is obvious that Hook is not playing with the same deck as DJ. How good would the Brewers have been last year with Knebel out, Jeffress hurt than ineffective and no Miley? They would have struggled. There are a few pitchers who are definitely pitching better under Hook for whatever reason.

 

There was still people making the exact point just last page, whatever that was, page 65. I don't know how people can think it after this big of a sample. Cincy still holding on at #3 in baseball even after playing in COL last weekend.

 

Side note, maybe there is someone we could poach of TBs staff this offseason. They're operating in the same forward thinking mindset we are trying and of course getting great results. Not necessarily pitching coach as I'm sure they'll value him a lot, but maybe analytics people, who knows.

 

I have said I do t think it as big of deal as people have stated. My point is look at Cincy pitching staff. Their 3-5 starters are all producing right around their career norms. They have not been any better. They same is true for much of their bullpen actually. Gray has definitely improved. He is like the pitcher he was before going to New York. Castillo also took the step forward most people saw coming. So DJ has really helped the top end of the rotation. Some nice moves have solidified the back end of the rotstion but it isn't like their whole team suddenly got better. Really only 3-4 pitchers numbers have improved noticeablely. They just haven't had people fall off/regress which could totally be dj.

 

The question I ask is how much better does Hook look right now if the Brewers bring back Miley (similar type numbers to Gray), add a dependable vet like Roark, and don't have Knebel go down? Again losing DJ hurt but there are just so many factors

 

As for the Brewers starting pitching over each starters last 3 starts only Adrian Houser has given up more than 2 runs (he has done it all 3 times). The biggest issue by far is the bullpen which is low on talent, overworked (maybe in part bc counsel doesn't let guys go deep), and has been hit by injury and regression. This team is one starter short to do what Counsel really wants. If houser could be a multiple inning bullpen guy like Peralta the bullpen would not be quite as taxed by short starts. And then they are one back end of the bullpen guy away from having to pitch Hader multiple innings too often losing him for a whole aeries