2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How is it not obvious that by Counsell saying "It's going to look different", he is referring to the pitching structure looking different than it did in September and October? I take that to mean it's going to look more traditional as far as the rotation and bullpen roles go. I don't think there is really any other way that can be interpreted.

[pacopete4]

Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation.

 

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

 

The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up.

 

Wait and see.

 

Doubling down. I like it. I think you'll end up on the wrong side of this for the most part, but I like it.

[Humans Need Water]

Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation.

 

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

 

The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up.

 

Wait and see.

Still living in your own world we see. Even my 3yr old can comprehend what Counsell said within the proper context. He clearly stated what we saw in Sept/Oct isn't what we're going to see moving forward hence "it's going to look different". That being what he continued saying, which I highlighted in pink because that's my 3yr olds favorite color. He literally stated the starters are going to need to get a lot of outs. That is the complete OPPOSITE of the narrative you've pushed so hard for so long all to watch it crumble in your face with one quote from *the* guy who makes the decisions on the field.

 

And no, there aren't people out there who agree with your interpretation above because what he said was black and white.

[Humans Need Water]

Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation.

 

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

 

The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up.

 

Wait and see.

 

Doubling down. I like it. I think you'll end up on the wrong side of this for the most part, but I like it.

You "think" he'll end up on the wrong side "for the most part"? Counsell literally just said he's 100% wrong and not even close

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have no doubt that the Brewers will go into some games this season with designed shorter starts, based on matchups and keeping pitch counts on select pitchers under control. I don't think its going to be any sort of regular practice, though. There's just no way they'd be able to sustain the staff all season with regular piggybacking. The five guys that they determine to be the best fits for the rotation will start, and the guys that were vying for those spots who don't get them will either head to the pen, San Antonio or to another team. That doesn't necessarily mean that the five most talented starter-types will be in the rotation. If the Brewers do anything to march to a different beat, its that they place more value on having effective pitching options ready for any scenario, whether that's the 1st, 4th, 7th or 9th inning, than other teams do. A lot of MLB teams throw their worst reliever or least talented starter type in a long relief role. The Brewers don't do that. That role is more important to them than it is to other teams.

[sveumrules]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

[Humans Need Water]

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

He doesn't have to "word for word" say we're using a traditional 5 man rotation because saying our starters are going to have to get a lot of outs for us to be successful means exactly that. There's going to be a rotation and within that rotation there will *always* be 3-5 additional starters getting starts during the season for various and obvious reasons. That goes for *every* team - that doesn't solely apply to the Brewers doing non-traditional things.

 

Nobody said the Brewers weren't going to use non-traditional things aka a lefty to open against STL (if Carpenter is leadoff) then go straight to the actual starter (10% of games? and that's only if Carpenter leads off). Nobody said there wouldn't be bullpen games based on how the schedule breaks at certain points where days off could allow it to happen. Nobody said or implied we're operating like the 1980s where your starter goes 100 pitches regardless of how they're throwing. Nobody said or implied any of these things.

 

But what *YOU* said was the Brewers were *100%* going to use an "initial out getter" going 3 innings/one time through the order (due to lack of success as the game goes on) then be followed by another starter (piggybacking), which leaves 4-5 pen arms to eat up the remaining 2-3 innings every night. This is a *strategy* you said they were doing and for the rest of us to WAIT AND SEE!!!! for this to play out, which would prove you right. Then Counsell just slammed the door in your face.

[pacopete4]

Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation.

 

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

 

The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up.

 

Wait and see.

 

Doubling down. I like it. I think you'll end up on the wrong side of this for the most part, but I like it.

You "think" he'll end up on the wrong side "for the most part"? Counsell literally just said he's 100% wrong and not even close

 

Eh, don't be so black and white. There could very well be parts to the season where we see a more tandem approach to things. Possibly when we have multiple off days in a week and such.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

 

I see the starting rotation in a much better spot (both talent-wise and depth wise) going into 2019 than 2018. Therefore, I think I'd take that bet.

[KeithStone53151]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

 

I see the starting rotation in a much better spot (both talent-wise and depth wise) going into 2019 than 2018. Therefore, I think I'd take that bet.

 

I think I'd take that bet also. That stat includes the September nonsense, and as noted...our SP will probably be better in 2019 than 2018. Chase and Davies struggled more than expected, Miley/Guerra were solid yet very inefficient and won't be back in the rotation. If anybody struggles, we have excellent young options that are ready and can fill in. CC will probably have a somewhat quicker hook than most managers, but I still doubt it's as low as 5.2 innings per start again.

[LouisEly]

Teetering back into more of the objectivity side from the subjectivity side, let's break down the math on IP a little. There was a comment a while back about the current starters not being able to go more than 180IP. By doing the math, I don't think they need to.

 

There are 162 games in a season. With five starting spots, that means each starting spot averages 32-33 starts per season. If they average 5.2 IP per start (important - not 5 2/3rds IP, i.e. 5 innings and 2 outs, but 5 and 2/10ths IP, or 5 innings and less than one out), for 33 starts that's ~172 innings over the course of the season. And that's exactly what the Brewers averaged per start last year - 5.2 IP. That includes the early hooks/bullpen games in September, so prior to September the average IP per start was higher than 5.2 IP. If it was 5.4 IP, for 33 starts you get ~178 IP over the course of the season; for 5.5 IP it's ~182 innings.

 

Since seasons have ~20 off days and the All-Star break, most teams that have significantly better #1/#2 starters than #4/#5 starters will use the off days to give their #1/#2 starters more starts - they'll get ~36 starts, and averaging 5.5 IP/start yields 198 IP. However, it could be argued that this year the Brewers #4/#5 starters (Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Peralta) aren't significantly worse than their #1/#2 starters (Chacin, Nelson, Burnes), thus the off days will likely be used to give extra rest and the starts will be spread more evenly. Add this to more multi-inning relievers (Guerra, Houser, Woodruff if he isn't starting, Hader) and expanded rosters in September, and they really don't need anyone to go more than 180 IP in a season.

 

Not this season at least.

[young guns]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

Does the .2 represent 2/10ths or 2/3s?

[sveumrules]

Chacin just threw the 2nd most innings in his career & topped 180 in consecutive seasons for the first time ever. I see him taking a step back.

 

Neither of Anderson or Davies should go through an order more than twice.

 

Nelson (injury) plus Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta (youth) will all be handled with varying levels of caution.

 

Does the .2 represent 2/10ths or 2/3s?

 

2/10ths. 847/163 = 5.196

[KeithStone53151]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

Does the .2 represent 2/10ths or 2/3s?

 

5.2, not 5 and 2/3. You can do a quick search for 2018 brewers stats on fangraphs and punch the figures into a calculator.

[tmwiese55]

So basically what Counsell said here is what I said the whole offseason. You simply can't do what was done in Sept/Oct all season due to the roster limitations. My guess it will look very similar to last year, normal 5 man rotation with some flex when off days and schedule allow. And the Brewers will continue to yank earlier than most regardless of pitch count by factoring in times through the order more heavily. First sign of issue that 3rd time, they're likely out. Very similar to last year.

 

For the 5.2. Anyone have a quick answer to how that compares to rest of league? IDK, which way I'd predict on it. I do think they'll keep pushing this early yank. however, our starters last year vs this year were seemingly far weaker, on paper at least. If guys like Nelson/Burnes step in and do what we expect you'd think the average would go up as you wouldn't have like 15-20 Suter starts, won't have the 4-5 inning planned Miley starts, etc. But, that depends if they actually do what we hope or if injuries show up again and they have to piece it together like last year.

[Humans Need Water]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

Impossible they averaged that in 2018. Chacin averaged 5.2 and nobody else did. Chase/Suter/Guerra/Peralta were 5.1. Miley/Gio/Davies 5 and they all combined for 157 of the teams starts.

 

Davies was injured most of the season but the previous 2yrs he averaged between 5.2-6. Chacin 5.2 the past 2yrs. Nelson was always been 5.2-6. Chase has been between 5-5.2 the past 4yrs alternating (so 2019 he'd be 5.2 if keeps pace). If we add Keuchel he'll most likely be going 6 for sure on average kicking someone in the rotation to the pen (or traded). If we add Gio he went 5 for us but before that last year and previous 3yrs he's gone 5.2.

 

Again, I don't know why this has to be said nonstop because it's blatantly obvious, they're going to operate relatively normal with the *goal* of getting as close to 6 innings as possible (or more only if someone's rolling) of high quality pitching from the rotation then turning it to the pen. Maybe that only ends up being 5.1 for some guys but the goal is going to be around 6. There's always going to be 7-8 starters for every team and we're fortunate to have that and have them be solid.

[Humans Need Water]

In 2018, Brewers starting pitchers averaged 5.2 innings per game.

 

I don't have any idea what usage patterns will be, who will be pitching in which roles or what the roles themselves will even be, but I will predict that in 2019 Brewers starting pitchers average less than 5.2 innings per start.

Impossible they averaged that in 2018. Chacin averaged 5.2 and nobody else did (and that 5.2 meaning 5 complete innings + 2 outs in the 6th). Chase/Suter/Guerra/Peralta were 5.1. Miley/Gio/Davies 5 and they all combined for 157 of the teams starts.

 

Davies was injured most of the season but the previous 2yrs he averaged between 5.2-6. Chacin 5.2 the past 2yrs. Nelson was always been 5.2-6. Chase has been between 5-5.2 the past 4yrs alternating (so 2019 he'd be 5.2 if keeps pace). If we add Keuchel he'll most likely be going 6 for sure on average kicking someone in the rotation to the pen (or traded). If we add Gio he went 5 for us but before that last year and previous 3yrs he's gone 5.2.

 

Again, I don't know why this has to be said nonstop because it's blatantly obvious, they're going to operate relatively normal with the *goal* of getting as close to 6 innings as possible (or more only if someone's rolling) of high quality pitching from the rotation then turning it to the pen. Maybe that only ends up being 5.1 for some guys but the goal is going to be around 6. There's always going to be 7-8 starters for every team and we're fortunate to have that and have them be solid.

[Humans Need Water]

Eh, don't be so black and white. There could very well be parts to the season where we see a more tandem approach to things. Possibly when we have multiple off days in a week and such.

Obviously that's going to be the case - as I've said for months. There's always breaks in the calendar (usually first part) where you can bullpen a game, etc and still keep everyone rested. Counsell wasn't stating we're going with 5 rotation arms and nobody else will start and everyone is throwing 100 pitches. He was clearly starting we're going with a rotation and we need that rotation to get as many outs as possible. So when that happens 90% of the time that's pretty black and white.

[LouisEly]

5.2, not 5 and 2/3. You can do a quick search for 2018 brewers stats on fangraphs and punch the figures into a calculator.

Or you can go to baseball-reference.com, and not do any math:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2018-starter-pitching.shtml

[LouisEly]

Impossible they averaged that in 2018. Chacin averaged 5.2 and nobody else did. Chase/Suter/Guerra/Peralta were 5.1. Miley/Gio/Davies 5 and they all combined for 157 of the teams starts.

Chacin averaged 5.5 IP/start. 192.2 (i.e., 192.66666667) IP on the season over 35 starts and no relief appearances = 5.5 IP/start.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2018.shtml

[FVBrewerFan]

I expect the 5.2 avg again this year. Maybe a tick or two up/down, but that's about right. They simply have too many quality arms in the BP/AA that can pitch multiple innings.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think I triggered a few using the word Piggyback like it's something that will be done all the time. So I'll go in to the thought process on what I mean. Offensively, this team should be improved at scoring runs by removing Santana/Broxton and high K tendencies replaced with more contact ability. Also Grandal's addition in to the lineup. Games can be blowouts vs. so many close games. Counsell will use guys like Woodruff and Guerra for 3-4IP stints. Save the back end of the bullpen for higher pressure situations. This isn't indicating that every Davies' start Guerra will finish it off. Just indicating when any starter has a blowup game or the offense has a 7-1 lead after 5, with a tired overused bullpen, you finish that game off with 1 arm vs. 3.

[pacopete4]

Eh, don't be so black and white. There could very well be parts to the season where we see a more tandem approach to things. Possibly when we have multiple off days in a week and such.

Obviously that's going to be the case - as I've said for months. There's always breaks in the calendar (usually first part) where you can bullpen a game, etc and still keep everyone rested. Counsell wasn't stating we're going with 5 rotation arms and nobody else will start and everyone is throwing 100 pitches. He was clearly starting we're going with a rotation and we need that rotation to get as many outs as possible. So when that happens 90% of the time that's pretty black and white.

 

So you're agreeing that there is some grey area? Sounds good. We are on the same page.

[Lathund]

Any team has to balance three (Well, probably more than that really, but those are the main ones IMO) different areas in their pitcher usage;

 

1. Maximizing the chances of winning any one individual game. The optimal way to do that is probably to use a ton of different relievers, trying to play as much matchups as possible, having them all go all out for short stints.

 

2. Maintaining a reasonable workload, reducing the risk for fatigue and injury. A consideration directly opposed to #1. Best way to do this is probably to have some kind of piggybacking, or starter + long reliever almost every game. Have relievers never throw on consecutive days, and ideally always with 2 days rest. Trying to keep your relievers on a "rotation" too.

 

3. Flexibility and availability to use your best relievers in the highest leverage situations.

 

And all this within the constraints of the 25- and 40-man roster rules. Focus too heavily on one, and the others will suffer. To be able to deploy your main weapons at will, to have the right pitchers available for the matchups you want them to face, you need the other pitchers to cover the remaining innings. In order to cover a large amount of innnings, you need rest between outings. And you need to ideally get the "bulk innings" with as few pitchers as possible, due to the limited number of pitchers available. Whenever you take away one inning from a starter, that means one more inning for someone on shorter rest to cover, you end up in a situation where the fewer innings the starter pitches, the more innings the long reliever does. Which creates a situation where you need to find more "bulk pitchers" of some kind. Bringing another factor into it: scarcity (In terms of both payrolls and actually available players). Even if you devise the "ultimate" plan, you need the right players to execute it and they may not be available. Reducing the workload of the starters who are usually the best pitchers means each inning they pitch will likely be slightly better. But it also means giving more innings to worse pitchers.

 

Those are just a few of the considerations in devising how to deploy a pitching staff. There are tradeoffs to whatever choice you make. and it's hard to know what to prioritize. Some make more sense in the long term, and some in the short term. And to win you need to be good at both. And as I look at it, the 5-man rotation remains a good start in that it provides bulk innings using few pitchers, enabling points #1 and #3 fairly well. In terms of #2 there's always the balance between total IP (or # of pitches thrown) and frequency of those innings, and I don't have the answer there what's the right balance, what something like a 4-man rotation with slightly shorter outings does, or a 6-man rotation with longer. Perhaps the 5-man rotaiton is what it is because of tradition (Though it's not some ancient phenomenon either), maybe it became such a staple for a good reason. Probably a little bit of both.

 

Either way, when looking at how I want to see the pitching staff employed, I'm sticking with the rough foundation of a 5-man rotation. The main problem it has is the widely known struggles to maintain performance deep into games. Shortening outings means more bullpen innings, which can both increase fatigue, injury risk and reduce flexibility. The way I'd solve that is pretty similar to what the Brewers did in 2018, with some modifications. So, in general terms:

 

- 5-man rotation. Depending on how good the #5 starter is, skipping him when rest days allows for it may be a good idea. Occasional bullpen/piggyback/hybrid day when bullpen workload allows for it.

- Prioritize the quick hooks for the back of the rotation. The smaller the drop-off 3rd time through the order, the more leeway they get.

- When starters can be left in, leave them in. Be aggressive with hooks in very close games, more conservative otherwise.

- Utilize the long reliever as such. Whether it's the AAA shuttle, the 5th starter when he's being skipped or a dedicated long reliever or two. Ideally use only two pitchers total on the days he pitches, give the bullpen a day off.

- Be aggressive about protecting a lead. Use the best arms early if they're available. If you extend the lead while they're in, you might be able to get away without using them in the 9th.

- Despite the above stagger the elite relievers at least somewhat. Try to never be in a situation where none of them are available. Or where you have to use them in low leverage.

- Do the above two while, to the greatest possible extent, avoiding using relievers on consecutive days. To avoid injury/fatigue in a reliever, I believe that's the key.

- Don't use a elite multi-inning reliever for one inning. Use him for 2-3, thus saving some other arm for the next day or day after that.

 

Kept them in general terms, but it's obvious how some of them apply to the current Brewers pitching staff. The long relief usage, usage on consecutive days, and slightly slower hooks when the situation allows for it are the areas where I hope to see improvement in 2019. I also hope they learned from the brief experiment of using Hader as a more traditional 1-inning guy. Simply use him for 2-3 innings, even if he needs 3 days off, that's IMO how you get the best balance between high total IP, high leverage situations and avoiding injury.

 

This ended up really long, so well done if you made it this far

[KeithStone53151]

I think I triggered a few using the word Piggyback like it's something that will be done all the time. So I'll go in to the thought process on what I mean. Offensively, this team should be improved at scoring runs by removing Santana/Broxton and high K tendencies replaced with more contact ability. Also Grandal's addition in to the lineup. Games can be blowouts vs. so many close games. Counsell will use guys like Woodruff and Guerra for 3-4IP stints. Save the back end of the bullpen for higher pressure situations. This isn't indicating that every Davies' start Guerra will finish it off. Just indicating when any starter has a blowup game or the offense has a 7-1 lead after 5, with a tired overused bullpen, you finish that game off with 1 arm vs. 3.

 

This type of thing might happen once in a while, but it won't be the norm. Heck we saw it happen in 2018...Josh Hader pitching 2.2 innings and striking out 8 Reds is one example of it. The strategy that was almost universally shot down is the idea that we won't have a set 5 man rotation and will instead employ some sort of piggyback scenario where guys only go 3-4 innings at a time but maybe pitch every 3-4 days instead of every 5 days. I'd have to look back at the specifics, but it was pretty bizarre and only works on paper.

 

I think most here fully expect quite a few outings by relievers that include anywhere from 4-8 outs, but that isn't some sort of new/cutting edge strategy...every team in baseball had multi-inning relievers last year. Once in a while, Guerra will finish up a blowout...or Hader will be so sicknasty that you just let him pitch 3 innings and finish it. But those won't be common and will probably only happen a handful of times over the course of the season.