2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Truce. Now mods, go ahead please and delete everything back to post #1151, lol.

[homer]

Truce. Now mods, go ahead please and delete everything back to post #1151, lol.

 

Fair enough

[JosephC]

I'm still trying to figure out of this pitching staff is just bad or if everything is completely skewed by what sure appears to be a ridiculously juiced set of baseballs. The home run by Alvarez last night is another example of a swing that looked like it had no business in a resulting home run. Low, out-of-the-strike-zone pitch where the hitter is off-balanced and seemingly out front and ends up "poking" (word used on the Astro's website) the ball over the right field wall.

 

Brewers sitting 11th in the NL in ERA (4.59) but are 4th in xFIP (4.17). Took a look at park factors at a couple different sites, and has been the historical trend, Miller Park has favored the hitters but it's not over-whelmingly tilted towards the hitters. Looking through some of the peripherals, the Brewers are towards the bottom in HR/FB% (16.5%, 12th in NL), but seem to be average in many other categories that one would assume could lead to higher run totals in the current environment (7th in hard hit ball percentage @ 38.1%, 8th in fly ball percentage @ 34.2%). Really hard to get a read on how this pitching staff stacks up against the rest of the league. xFIP is a pretty good indicator that better days may be ahead, but most of the other numbers make this look like an average-at-best pitching staff.

[Oxy]

It HAS BEEN average, but the depth and talent make it likely to be well above average come playoff time. With all of the options the Brewers have they shouldn't be forced to use guys at that time who have pitched poorly and dragged the overall numbers of the staff down. This is true for every pitching staff in the league, of course, but even moreso for the Brewers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

 

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?

[sveumrules]

The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

 

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?

 

It's a combination of factors...

 

The biggest one being in 2018 they played 163 games & threw 1461 IP, which is a much more reliable sample than the 67 games & 608 IP so far this year.

 

As JosephC pointed out earlier & I've tracked at various points throughout the thread, their xFIP (which is a much better indicator of future results than ERA at this still early juncture of the season) is & has been fine for most of the season. It is actually slightly better than last year when adjusted for the increased run scoring environment, 99 xFIP- in 2018 vs 97 xFIP- so far this year.

 

Other factors include different personnel (both on field & off field) plus just the good old fashioned random year to year variation of baseball.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

 

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?

 

I think a better stat would be to see where the team ERA sat on June 12 of last season, if you want to make an apples to apples comparison.

[Smichaelis9]

The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

 

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?

 

I think a better stat would be to see where the team ERA sat on June 12 of last season, if you want to make an apples to apples comparison.

Yeah, unfortunately on June 12 last year it was a full 1.1 lower than right now. I’m still on board with the staff we currently have for the most part, but I was honestly surprised by it being that big a difference...

Edit: it should be noted that league wide, the average ERA is much higher than last years and the Brewers team ERA is only about 0.16 worse than a league average ERA.

[tmwiese55]

It doesn't surprise me at all. Remember how many low scoring games they played first half last year and still had a winning record? All those shutouts early on that we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

[Smichaelis9]

It doesn't surprise me at all. Remember how many low scoring games they played first half last year and still had a winning record? All those shutouts early on that we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

Yeah, that’s true. We definitely were being carried by our pitching for a large majority of the season last year. I just sort of pushed aside the memory that the offense was really not doing a ton until Yeli turned into Barry Bonds post ASB haha.

[xisxisxis]

we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.

[homer]

The Brewers Pitching ERA as a team this year is about a full run higher than in 2018.

 

Is this the impact of losing pitching coach guru Derek Johnson?

 

I think a better stat would be to see where the team ERA sat on June 12 of last season, if you want to make an apples to apples comparison.

 

3.53

 

[JosephC]

Through 67 games last year the pitching staff had given up 69 home runs, this year the number is up to 96.

 

Through 67 games last year the Brewer batters had hit 83 home runs, this year the number has gone up to 117.

 

One could argue that Moustakas and Grandal have a lot to do with that, but to counter that, one could argue that Shaw and Aguilar's near no-show should off-set the Moustakas and Grandal additions. And we are not talking about a jump from 83 to 93....it's a jump from 83 to 117.

 

Balls are juiced and IMO it's essential to account for that when judging this pitching staff.

[wntrtxn21]

Through 67 games last year the pitching staff had given up 69 home runs, this year the number is up to 96.

 

Through 67 games last year the Brewer batters had hit 83 home runs, this year the number has gone up to 117.

 

One could argue that Moustakas and Grandal have a lot to do with that, but to counter that, one could argue that Shaw and Aguilar's near no-show should off-set the Moustakas and Grandal additions. And we are not talking about a jump from 83 to 93....it's a jump from 83 to 117.

 

Balls are juiced and IMO it's essential to account for that when judging this pitching staff.

 

Burnes is almost singly responsible for the huge increase in HRs given up. Hader also has given up a lot more than he did at this time last year. The juiced ball also has something to do with the balls flying out this year.

[sveumrules]

Yup. Balls are clearly juiced & expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

 

League Averages:

 

HR/9 in 2018: 1.16

HR/9 in 2019: 1.36 (so far)

 

HR/FB% in 2018: 12.7%

HR/FB% in 2919: 14.9% (so far)

 

Here are our league adjusted ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- marks during the Stearns era. 100 is average, lower is better:

 

2016: 97/104/107

2017: 91/97/99

2018: 91/97/99

2019: 105/100/97

 

What's interesting to me is that in each of the three previous seasons our FIP outperformed our xFIP & our ERA outperformed our FIP. Maybe it's a crazy coincidence, maybe DJ really had/has the magic dust, maybe it has something to with having plus defenders & a forward thinking front office, maybe it's a combination of none or some of those things. I won't pretend to know.

 

This season it has been the exact opposite to this point. That gives me additional confidence that our ERA- will end the season closer to (or hopefully even lower than) our current xFIP- of 97 than it will to the 105 it is at momentarily.

[tmwiese55]

True. I saw something a few weeks ago that HRs in AAA have gone up 50% this year. I don't know if it's leveled but I doubt by much. Apparently they just started using the same balls as MLB this year. Pretty clear to me something is up

[Brew crew 92]

we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.

 

We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

 

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.

[yourout]

we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.

 

We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

 

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.

 

 

I agree with this pen potentionally being as good as last years pen until September. Once Knebel figured things out and we picked up Soria last years pen went to another level that I'm not sure this pen can reach.

[Brew crew 92]

Knebel was unhittable in September but Jeffress also started his decline, and Guerra is better than Soria. Claudio > Jennings, Houser = Woodruff, pretty close top to bottom imo. With the potential to get better with Nelson or Chacín or Anderson or Gio joining at some point moving forward. Should be the best NL bullpen.

[wntrtxn21]

we lost by like 1-4 runs. Bullpen was great to start the year as well before the implosion right before the ASB. This year has been lots of high scoring games and frankly the starter just getting smashed a lot of games.

It would be nice if we had a bullpen that could keep things close when the SP was taken to the woodshed by the other team. It would also help if CC understood bad Freddy isn't the type of pitcher you try to get 1 more inning out of when your team is trailing by 1. That 4 run 5th really did in the Brewers - take it away and they are battling to the end in a close game (or minimize the damage by going to the bullpen to start the 5th), maybe even winning a tough game against a good team. Instead another kick in the ass loss.

 

We’re getting closer. With Chacín being activated Monday to the rotation and Peralta probably to the pen, with Barnes going back down, that will strengthen the front of the pen. No Barnes, by itself, strengthens the pen, but with Houser emerging as a real weapon to go with Peralta, I believe the crew can keep games closer.

 

When Barnes is sent down, our bullpen, imo, will be as strong as any pen we had last year, including the post deadline pen. And if Burnes can get his command just a little better, we might not need a pen arm at the deadline.

 

I don't see the pen being anywhere close to what they had last year. No Knebel to close and no Woodruff in the pen. Hader is giving up the long ball too often and not as consistent as he was last year. CC can't count on Peralta or Burnes. Peralta is all over the place and who knows what Burnes is going to do when he gets in. Ditto with Albers, Williams, and Barnes. Houser has been a real pleasant surprise and could be better than Soria. Jeffress is coming on as the weather gets warmer and last night he hit 96 consistently with a good breaking ball and his splitter may have been the best all year. They need one very good late inning type guy to be close to what they were last year.

[xisxisxis]

What's interesting to me is that in each of the three previous seasons our FIP outperformed our xFIP & our ERA outperformed our FIP. Maybe it's a crazy coincidence, maybe DJ really had/has the magic dust, maybe it has something to with having plus defenders & a forward thinking front office, maybe it's a combination of none or some of those things. I won't pretend to know.

It's complex and we probably won't know for sure the impact of each of the components, but I would add that pitch selection/sequencing may be a very important area where DJ excelled.

[82brewcrew82]

You can manipulate the numbers, you can write thesis on the subject and you can put a whole lot of lipstick on that pig, but the bottom line is we don't have enough pitching.

[yourout]

I think it is safe to say that so far the Chris Hook experiment has been a dismal failure.

 

I would have thought they could have at least found a guy with big league experience for the job instead of a AAA guy working the bigs for the first time.

[brewers888]

At this point of the season Cincy has the 4th best ERA in MLB and the Brewers are 18th. Its far enough into the season to say that we desperately miss Derek Johnson.

[TURBO]

Yeah, those that blew off the departure of DJ were just wrong...