2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[TJseven7]

As for assumptions. 4 guys have tanked this ERA. The fact is 4 guys have tanked the teams ERA.

 

Which teams' cumulative ERA wouldn't look good if you lopped off their 4 worst performers? Not many.

 

How many have the options on June 2nd to not need those options? It's specifically the point of Stearns model.

[82brewcrew82]

You are just crabby because you called the kids aces and they proved they weren't ready to be starters. Peralta doesn't have a starters pitch profile. His stuff plays better out of the pen. Burnes is a totally different story. It is not surprising at all that Peralta has been better out of the pen. He throws the FB nearly 80% of the time.

 

As for assumptions. 4 guys have tanked this ERA. There are a number of guys who could do better and a number who could do worse. The fact is 4 guys have tanked the teams ERA. The team does this seemingly every year where they work through a couple starters and pen arms until they've shuttled the staff to the right mix. When Gio Chacin and Nelson are up, sending Burnes Barnes and Williams down that mix is set.

 

But hey, thanks for pissing on a guy for putting this together. Classy stuff. I know number and facts aren't cool because opinions and hypotheticals matter more.

I'll take you at your word on that first paragraph because everything in there is false. I'd also check the tenor of your posts before calling someone else crabby.

 

The only premise I've had is that we don't have enough pitching and performance to date, factually, bears that out. You, on the other hand, are cherry picking out stats you don't like, assuming health and performance trends will continue unchecked and are ignoring the fact that those very pitchers are still very much in the teams plans (not to mention on the active roster). But it's me that is dealing in hypotheticals and opinions? The bolded part above is ENTIRELY hypothetical. You have no idea if it will work out that way or not. You don't how Nelson is going to perform. You are assuming that Chacin is going to overcome this series of wretched starts. It's all opinion. Yet you have the nerve to tell me I'm all about hypotheticals and opinions. No sir, that is your game.

 

Lastly, I literally said you did a great job but I guess anything other than total agreement with your OPINON is.........classy stuff?

[82brewcrew82]

You are just crabby because you called the kids aces and they proved they weren't ready to be starters. Peralta doesn't have a starters pitch profile. His stuff plays better out of the pen. Burnes is a totally different story. It is not surprising at all that Peralta has been better out of the pen. He throws the FB nearly 80% of the time.

 

As for assumptions. 4 guys have tanked this ERA. There are a number of guys who could do better and a number who could do worse. The fact is 4 guys have tanked the teams ERA. The team does this seemingly every year where they work through a couple starters and pen arms until they've shuttled the staff to the right mix. When Gio Chacin and Nelson are up, sending Burnes Barnes and Williams down that mix is set.

 

But hey, thanks for pissing on a guy for putting this together. Classy stuff. I know number and facts aren't cool because opinions and hypotheticals matter more.

 

Weren't you the one who went on a full blown tirade when the Brewers didn't sign Alex Cobb prior to last season?

 

Axe to grind, aye? Trolling me all over the forum today huh?

You mean like you were doing to me in the IGT the other night. Hello pot.

[82brewcrew82]

As for assumptions. 4 guys have tanked this ERA. The fact is 4 guys have tanked the teams ERA.

 

Which teams' cumulative ERA wouldn't look good if you lopped off their 4 worst performers? Not many.

 

How many have the options on June 2nd to not need those options? It's specifically the point of Stearns model.

Could you please specifically define what the "Stearns model" is for me? Also, how does that in any way address the question you were asked........since you only deal in straight up facts and all.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chacin to the IL? Who didn't see that coming? The curveball was Gio also going to the IL.

[TJseven7]

Could you please specifically define what the "Stearns model" is for me? Also, how does that in any way address the question you were asked........since you only deal in straight up facts and all.

 

Certainly, as you've seen it in the last 2 years. Stearns packs AAA with pitching depth and covets guys with options. Why does he do that? Pitching is volatile. Especially relievers. They shuffle shuffle shuffle until they find the ones who have it going that year then they move forward with that group.

 

Very few teams do that to the same level as MKE. He plans for this. It's a value generating tool. Get a lot of moderate MLB talent, see who has a year of it.

 

So when he goes, You could pull out 4 pitchers from any team and improve their ERA. MKE, unlike most teams, can actually do that because they are sifting through a wealth of options. If you remove the 4 worst on any team, sure the ERA looks better. Can they? No. Can MKE? Yes. That's Stearns model. Houston did that before he came to MKE. Both teams have talked of the same thing. You need 10 starters cuz you don't know. That's not just injury protection.

[Oxy]

Could you please specifically define what the "Stearns model" is for me? Also, how does that in any way address the question you were asked........since you only deal in straight up facts and all.

 

Certainly, as you've seen it in the last 2 years. Stearns packs AAA with pitching depth and covets guys with options. Why does he do that? Pitching is volatile. Especially relievers. They shuffle shuffle shuffle until they find the ones who have it going that year then they move forward with that group.aa

 

Very few teams do that to the same level as MKE. He plans for this. It's a value generating tool. Get a lot of moderate MLB talent, see who has a year of it.

 

So when he goes, You could pull out 4 pitchers from any team and improve their ERA. MKE, unlike most teams, can actually do that because they are sifting through a dearth of options. If you remove the 4 worst on any team, sure the ERA looks better. Can they? No. Can MKE? Yes. That's Stearns model. Houston did that before he came to MKE. Both teams have talked of the same thing. You need 10 starters cuz you don't know. That's not just injury protection.

 

I agree with you here, but I think you meant a wealth of options, rather than a "dearth" of options. Also, while that seems to be a strategy of his going into a season, it pretty much didn't work this year. Every AAA/A type guy with (or without) options that MKE picked up either got hurt or flopped through the first 2 months. The internal depth that MKE already had has been better than any of the external acquisitions. Still, we are so deep that veteran guys like Chacin and Gonzalez who are out of options STILL have to come up with phantom-ish injuries in order to get the guys we want pitching right now to be pitching.

 

Also, while the talent and the depth is great to have, things still haven't settled to the point of even knowing who will be on the postseason roster (if we are fortunate to make it that far) outside of Hader and...Woodruff?? and Davies?? Even those guys could be left off if other guys step up and their performances go south in the last 4 months of the season. It's really a unique situation.

[Jenkins5]

Hard to believe Jimmy will be 30 when he starts on Wednesday. Glad to see him battle his way back to majors though! Hopefully he can get back to where he was

[TJseven7]

You are just crabby because you called the kids aces and they proved they weren't ready to be starters. Peralta doesn't have a starters pitch profile. His stuff plays better out of the pen. Burnes is a totally different story. It is not surprising at all that Peralta has been better out of the pen. He throws the FB nearly 80% of the time.

 

As for assumptions. 4 guys have tanked this ERA. There are a number of guys who could do better and a number who could do worse. The fact is 4 guys have tanked the teams ERA. The team does this seemingly every year where they work through a couple starters and pen arms until they've shuttled the staff to the right mix. When Gio Chacin and Nelson are up, sending Burnes Barnes and Williams down that mix is set.

 

But hey, thanks for pissing on a guy for putting this together. Classy stuff. I know number and facts aren't cool because opinions and hypotheticals matter more.

I'll take you at your word on that first paragraph because everything in there is false. I'd also check the tenor of your posts before calling someone else crabby.

 

The only premise I've had is that we don't have enough pitching and performance to date, factually, bears that out. You, on the other hand, are cherry picking out stats you don't like, assuming health and performance trends will continue unchecked and are ignoring the fact that those very pitchers are still very much in the teams plans (not to mention on the active roster). But it's me that is dealing in hypotheticals and opinions? The bolded part above is ENTIRELY hypothetical. You have no idea if it will work out that way or not. You don't how Nelson is going to perform. You are assuming that Chacin is going to overcome this series of wretched starts. It's all opinion. Yet you have the nerve to tell me I'm all about hypotheticals and opinions. No sir, that is your game.

 

Lastly, I literally said you did a great job but I guess anything other than total agreement with your OPINON is.........classy stuff?

 

You are just crabby because you called the kids aces and they proved they weren't ready to be starters. Untrue, wrong guy, I apologize.

Peralta doesn't have a starters pitch profile. Find me the long list of starters who are anywhere near 78.5% FB, 19.4$ CU, 2.1% CH. You'll find very few do. True.

His stuff plays better out of the pen. You'll find most relievers have a similar pitch profile. True.

Burnes is a totally different story. He throws 5 pitches. 55.1% FB, 27.5% SL, 4.2 SI, 4.5 CH, 8.5 CB. That's a starters profile. That's true.

It is not surprising at all that Peralta has been better out of the pen. Because he has a relief pitchers pitch profile. True.

He throws the FB nearly 80% of the time. 78.5% qualifies as NEARLY. True.

 

You can't call what I'm saying false just because you want it to be. Those things are facts.

 

4 guys have tanked this ERA. True.

There are a number of guys who could do better and a number who could do worse. Do you actually think we are seeing the best every pitcher on this staff can do?

The team does this seemingly every year where they work through a couple starters and pen arms until they've shuttled the staff to the right mix. You've watched this team and seen the evidence of this. True.

 

You, on the other hand, are cherry picking out stats you don't like, assuming health and performance trends will continue unchecked and are ignoring the fact that those very pitchers are still very much in the teams plans (not to mention on the active roster).

 

Not cherry picking at all. I've left random bad options in the numbers I've posted. Those things happen. I didn't pull out Williams, Claudio, Wilkerson. Jackson or even Chacin, I'd be cherry picking if I was. Burnes as a starter and Peralta as a starter was a mistake and they clearly get that. Barnes is up as of today. He's also up because 2 starters are on the IL and Jimmy isn't back yet. Williams is in the numbers. I'm also not assuming health, but I'm not assuming a health implosion. Both are unlikely. I'm not pointing towards anything traded in, that's hypothetical as it could effect the team for the better or worse. I'm simply showing that there are 4 warts on this staff. 2 young kids starting early when they weren't ready to start. 2 gas cans in the pen who sucked as badly as Boone and Drake did early last year. I could put Barnes back in if you'd like. It wouldn't change a lot.

 

This wasn't with an axe to grind. This was posted because our ERA looks worse than it is because 2 rushed kids and 2 bums who we don't need to pitch really did a number on the ERA. If we don't use them, the arms are in place for the numbers to hit the 3.9-4.0 ERA goal.

 

This doesn't fit your narrative of us needing MORE so you don't like it. The truth is this pitching staff is plenty good enough if they stop trotting out a few pieces who are shooting them in the foot. They have options to work through who can put an end to that. Truly the only one that hasn't been dealt with is Burnes on the MLB roster.

 

Today we have Barnes and Williams up. Barnes is not in the stats, Williams is in the stats. Nelson's next up and 1 of them goes down. He might suck, he might be good. I don't know, I don't care. If he is a 4ERA guy he doesn't shoot us in the foot. He stays then. Gio and Chacin are also out sending another 1 down each. That's 3, Barnes Burnes Williams. If we get all 3 back the team has 6 starters so pick one for the pen. Does Nelson go to the pen, does Chacin? I don't know. Doesn't matter and I don't need to project it.

 

Alex Wilson isn't coming back unless all heck breaks loose. Unless we hit a massive rash of starter injuries Peralta and Burnes should not start again this year. If the team suffers a health implosion (which is a hypothetical) then the team needs more pitching. As of now, the team doesn't. They just need to stop pushing Burnes and Peralta into a starting role and give up on Wilson. They've done that. Burnes and Barnes as well... not yet.

 

Doesn't fit your narrative. But its also the truth of the season we've seen and expecting a change dramatically for the better or worse is hypothetical speculation.

 

GET IT?

 

The season has shown

Peralta starting bad, Peralta pen good. Anderson into the starting rotation coupled with Peralta to the pen has resolved the issue.

Burnes starting bad, Gio added removes that.

Houser to the pen has remedied Wilson

Barnes in the pen has been bad. He is up due to 2 injuries. Why him, no idea, other options have produced better.

Burnes in the pen is still bad. We haven't solved that yet but there are options left to try. Not only Nelson who is unknown, but Hart, Burch, Petricka who are in the numbers.

 

When you fix those issues, and the only ones not fixed are a long leash on Burnes and Barnes fip appreciation. The ERA is EXACTLY where we want it.

 

Anything beyond that is hypothetical. What I'm stating is TODAY, and KNOWN. You can want to say we need more because you want this team to be better than a 3.9-4.0 ERA club but the team needs to be a 3.9-4.0 club and it has the horses to do so. This is factual. This is the truth. This is the exact way Stearns does this.

 

GET IT?

[TJseven7]

I think you meant a wealth of options, rather than a "dearth" of options.

 

SURE DID! Mind melt word.

 

"Also, while that seems to be a strategy of his going into a season, it pretty much didn't work this year."

 

I actually disagree with this because they did it backwards this year. First off losing Knebel Wahl didn't help. Usually you'd start with vets but they wanted to challenge the kids so that's who went 1st. Anderson was in the pen. Guerra is in the pen. Nelson was on the mend. They were able to get Gio when the kids flopped. Wilkerson is still untested. Houser went into the pen because that's where the weakness proved to be.

 

The depth was and still is there this year just like last year. Unlike last year, they led with the kids.

 

Example:

Even with Gio and Chacin out your group is

Davies Woodruff Anderson Nelson

Hader Jeffress Guerra Albers Claudio Houser Burnes Barnes Williams

In the minors depth such as Wilkerson as a starter, Smith who did well here in relief (career 5.13 as a reliever vs his 8.27 as a starter), Hart (career sub 3.2 in 88 innings), Petrika (sub 4 in 231 innings)

 

They are down Knebel, Wahl, Chacin, Gio. Wilson Barnes Burnes Wilson Williams and Jackson all looked like busts. There are still 4 depth pieces AND they were trying to ramp up Zach Brown for a late season role and are still working on Rasmussen. That's a lot of depth.

 

Side note, funny thing about Wilkerson is that he has 3 starts and 1 long relief appearance on the day he was called up.

4 outings 18.1 IP (2.1, 7, 5, 4)

ERA 3.44

[TJseven7]

Let's slim down the "cherry picking" more for our friend who thinks its is such.

 

Despite Houser replacing Wilson I have left Wilson in. I left Barnes in. The ONLY two things I took out. Burnes pitching, Peralta starting. Rushing kids.

 

Staff ERA 3.95

vs

Staff ERA is 4.47

 

Is half a run a big deal?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Let's slim down the "cherry picking" more for our friend who thinks its is such.

 

It sure appears as though you're still presuming a world where the Brewers picked who turned out to be their 12 best performers out of Spring Training and "hey look how good the team ERA would be if they had". What team in the majors wouldn't benefit greatly from that hindsight? The stats you're posting also meet the very definition of cherry picking so your condescension toward the people using the term is offensive.

[homer]

Let's slim down the "cherry picking" more for our friend who thinks its is such.

 

It sure appears as though you're still presuming a world where the Brewers picked who turned out to be their 12 best performers out of Spring Training and "hey look how good the team ERA would be if they had". What team in the majors wouldn't benefit greatly from that hindsight? The stats you're posting also meet the very definition of cherry picking so your condescension toward the people using the term is offensive.

 

Just a warning...you two had a bunch of posts deleted yesterday after a thread went off the rails. If that happens again you are looking at a temp ban.

[Brew crew 92]

Let's slim down the "cherry picking" more for our friend who thinks its is such.

 

It sure appears as though you're still presuming a world where the Brewers picked who turned out to be their 12 best performers out of Spring Training and "hey look how good the team ERA would be if they had". What team in the majors wouldn't benefit greatly from that hindsight? The stats you're posting also meet the very definition of cherry picking so your condescension toward the people using the term is offensive.

 

Disagree.

His thesis explains in great detail what I’ve been saying since the experiment ended.

 

Without getting into the detail he did, We have a staff since May that’s top 5 era in baseball. Why?

 

It all changed in the span of days, Burnes and Peralta taken out of the rotation and replaced by gio and Anderson > rotation stabilized.

 

Barnes Wilson Jackson Petricka gone from the pen, and are pitching where they belong > AAA.

 

Burnes and Peralta and Houser to the pen, with Jeffress HEALTHY finally, giving us another quality high leverage arm. Houser has been really good, so has Peralta out of the pen.

 

Two completely different staffs > before May = 2nd worst in the NL. After May = Top 3-4 in NL.

 

The gray area imo is what does this really mean moving forward?

 

I believe the pitching is strong enough to get us into the playoffs as is, but not strong enough to advance. But am confident of outside & inside additions by Stearns to improve our staff.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Chacin to the IL? Who didn't see that coming? The curveball was Gio also going to the IL.

 

I am very much looking forward to Nelson's return to the rotation. I think the Brewers have somewhat slow-played it, as the rotation has performed admirably over the last month for the most part.

 

I suppose a couple guys hitting the IL with seemingly short-term injures is a better outcome that Nelson taking someone's place because they are underperforming.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If I'm not mistaken, we were all here in spring contemplating phantom IL stays as a way to manage innings for the youngsters so I guess it's not all that surprising that the Brewers are doing it to find playing time for a team with more than 25 capable major leaguers. Good problem to have. I wonder what MLB is going to do to try and combat it. I'm not sure they can since there is no way to prove someone's body part isn't fatigued or sore. At least none that I know of.

[KeithStone53151]

If I'm not mistaken, we were all here in spring contemplating phantom IL stays as a way to manage innings for the youngsters so I guess it's not all that surprising that the Brewers are doing it to find playing time for a team with more than 25 capable major leaguers. Good problem to have. I wonder what MLB is going to do to try and combat it. I'm not sure they can since there is no way to prove someone's body part isn't fatigued or sore. At least none that I know of.

 

I'm not so sure these IL stays are phantom stays. I don't think perfectly healthy players would agree to simply accept an IL stint. Especially someone like Gio who is hurting his market value and/or bonuses for IP/starts. They might be a touch exaggerated, but I highly doubt there isn't at least some truth to them.

 

I'm also super excited to see Jimmy on Wednesday. I hope everyone tempers their expectations a bit. He hasn't pitched in the majors in 2 years and I believe I've seen reports of diminished velocity. His results in AAA also have been very mediocre. It will still be nice to see him pitch again.

[tmwiese55]

They combatted a bit by going back to the 15 day IL. I think that starts again next year, maybe it's two years. Of course doesn't fully stop it or anything, but makes it tougher. And just not as easy to fabricate DL stints around off days basically to get an extra roster spot while skipping someone in the rotation.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

I'm not so sure these IL stays are phantom stays. I don't think perfectly healthy players would agree to simply accept an IL stint. Especially someone like Gio who is hurting his market value and/or bonuses for IP/starts. They might be a touch exaggerated, but I highly doubt there isn't at least some truth to them.

 

Bolded is pretty much where I'm at. There's almost always some sore muscle or joint that can be exaggerated on any given day for just about every player. I feel like that's what the Brewers are exploiting here. If there wasn't a roster crunch, I think there's a good chance either Gio's or Chacin's IL stays never happen.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

They combatted a bit by going back to the 15 day IL. I think that starts again next year, maybe it's two years. Of course doesn't fully stop it or anything, but makes it tougher. And just not as easy to fabricate DL stints around off days basically to get an extra roster spot while skipping someone in the rotation.

 

Yeah, I suppose if IL manipulation becomes too big an issue, they could up it more to something like 20 days. I hope not.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think if a player is hurt or sore just enough that it's affecting his mechanics and he knows he's hurting the team, then a short IL stay is probably agreeable. If someone is just not playing well and the team wants to free up a roster spot, I think that's where it gets a bit sticky. I think that's where the Giants ran into trouble when they wanted to put someone on the IL not too long ago.

[Brew crew 92]

I am getting frustrated with the pitching decisions this team is making.

 

Why is Peralta starting on Thur/fri? At best a short start, piggyback bullpen game. Why not start Wilkerson, who’s given up only 5 runs starting ALL YEAR? There’s at least a chance to not only get a good start but a deep one as well. I suppose they will potentially call him up to piggyback, but why not just start him instead?

 

Thank goodness I think we’ve seen the last of Williams Barnes. More than a little surprised it’s taken this long to KNOW they shouldn’t be within 1,000 miles of the big league bullpen. Why didn’t Stearn’s trade or DFA them both, I’ll never know.

 

New arms are needed on the 40 man imo. Sanchez Perdomo among others should replace the aforementioned.

 

I also believe they should get by with a 12 man staff when Gio and Chacín are off the IL and Hiura past the super 2. That be 2 weeks.

 

Starters:

Woodruff Nelson Gio Davies Wilkerson

 

Bullpen:

Anderson

Chacín

Houser

Claudio

Jeffress

Guerra

Hader

 

Peralta Burnes to AAA stretched and starting.

 

I believe Nelson and Wilkerson will pitch deeper and having 3 starter arms can cover more innings, allowing for 3 high leverage arms being enough to close out games. And this should work till the deadline when some of the dead wood on offense should be gone(Thames?Aguilar?Shaw?).

[brewmann04]

I am sorry but I don't think Wilkerson is the answer for the rotation.

He has done well at times in 3A but that is most likely his celling

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just a guess on my part obviously, but perhaps the Brewers see Wilkerson as many posters here do ... as a AAA-type depth piece who is nice to have around as an emergency guy, but that's about it. That fact that he's on the 40-man roster indicates that he'll likely see more big league time at some point this year, but it appears that he's somewhat down the starting pitching pecking order, despite his great AAA numbers.

 

As for the new 40-man arms, I get it ... but this team is all about conserving depth. They wouldn't be adding guys like Sanchez and Perdomo unless they planned to call them up. With your prospective 12-man staff, there simply isn't room for them.

 

Please don't take this as me disagreeing with you for the sake of disagreeing, or picking on you as you've implied lately to me and others. It's simply providing an alternative viewpoint.

[pacopete4]

The call for Wilkerson is like calling for the backup QB in football. He's a different name but he's just a guy.