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2019 Brewers' pitching staff


adambr2

Re: Woodruff

 

BRANDON WOODRUFF

 

Wait! Don't leave! Only one pitcher has allowed more line drives so far this season than Woodruff, which might help explain how he's gotten hit so hard. Still, line drives are the least predictive batted ball type. The next piece of compelling research I see that suggests giving up line drives is a sticky "skill" will be the first. If those line drives start turning into fly balls, perhaps the home runs continue … which is a problem in that park. But he generated grounders at an above-average rate the last two seasons (53% in 2018, 47% in 2017) — albeit primarily as a reliever — so there's precedent to suggest he possesses skills to avoid fly balls. Command doesn't appear to be a problem — he was at least league-average by Command+ in 2017 and 2018 — and you don't find an 81st percentile K-BB% on your wire very often. I'm holding or adding and keeping a close eye on the trend of his line drives allowed.

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I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.

 

Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.

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I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.

 

Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.

 

Not to shabby for a guy who a few fans were tossing around as a "throw in" at the trade deadline last year. His dominant run as a reliever in August-October seems to have given him a lot of confidence.

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Yes, I misread your post, do agree if he keeps improving, will outperform his non-bluechip prospect rating. If he continues his improvement of his FB command he’s a 2. Then if he can command his change-up a 1.

 

Not to shabby for a guy who a few fans were tossing around as a "throw in" at the trade deadline last year. His dominant run as a reliever in August-October seems to have given him a lot of confidence.

 

Also worth noting that having him the pen for a few months didn't seem to stunt his development in any significant way. I mean, I get that he wasn't getting as much work on all his pitches and pacing, but that's just a detour in his development, not a road block. So glad they have Burnes and Peralta in modified roles again. They'll get plenty more chances to start.

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I might be a month or so early in saying this, and yes I do know this is not the brewer optimism thread, but this pitching staff is the best I’ve seen in at least 27 years, maybe ever.

 

9 Starters deep, all at least ave to above, most with lots of experience pitching in big games, most still in their prime physically. Most important I’m confident in their ability to keep us in games.

 

The bullpen is even more exciting, with 3-4 of Burnes Peralta Anderson woodruff Nelson Houser joining the pen over the next month or two. Not to mention a youngin or two if needed from down below. Jeffress improving by the start, Albers pitching well, Hader the best there is, and then we have our secret true weapon in junior Guerra, who can close or pitch 3. This pen will be our ticket to the series.

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After another Saturday marathon, expect Burch Smith to be optioned, with Hart, Barnes, or Chase eligible to take his place.

It’s Barnes.

 

 

We’ll have arrived this year as a pitching staff when We don’t need Barnes to shuttle as a mop up arm. Same with Williams Smith and maybe Houser.

 

When Albers is our mop up arm, we’ll have a staff that can beat the dodgers. 2-3 Quality pitchers from that right now, but with Anderson back this week, and Nelson in June, barring injury we should be there.

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With Anderson starting sat and Peralta to the pen, Then jimmy to the rotation @ june 1 with Anderson in all likelihood to the pen, barring catastrophic injuries we can say goodbye to Jacob Barnes forever, he’ll probably be Dfa’d. I suppose they could put Peralta in AAA, but they would have houser Wilkerson for depth.

 

Pitching staff June 1:

 

Rotation-

 

1.) Woodruff

2.) Nelson

3.) Chacín

4.) Gio

5.) Davies

 

Bullpen:

 

6.) Anderson(2-4 innings)

7.) Peralta(2-4 innings)

8.) Albers > mop up/1-2 innings

9.) Claudio > Loogy+

10.) Guerra > 1-3 innings/close

11.) Burnes > 1-2 innings/close

12.) Jeffress 1-2 innings/close

13.) Hader > 1-3 innings/close

 

If Nelson strong top 3 rotation in NL

If Anderson Peralta strong we have a superpen

 

From June on this team should win 66% of their games with good health, a favorable schedule and a strong Nelson.

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Anderson has looked looked good in the few starts he has had. Chacin has not impressed me this year, I could see them swapping starts.

 

Chacin's last three starts have been pretty good. I'm not changing anything with him yet, he may have found his groove.

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Bullpen now has 4 high leverage arms Counsell loves, Guerra Burnes Jeffress Hader.

 

With Peralta able to pitch 2-4 innings, Houser needs replaced by Anderson when Nelson is in rotation. CC doesn’t trust Houser like he does Chase, so that would be two arms that could pitch 3+ innings or 50-60 pitches. That would rest the high leverage arms, keeping everyone fresh. That’s the missing link to the superpen.

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Bullpen now has 4 high leverage arms Counsell loves, Guerra Burnes Jeffress Hader.

 

With Peralta able to pitch 2-4 innings, Houser needs replaced by Anderson when Nelson is in rotation. CC doesn’t trust Houser like he does Chase, so that would be two arms that could pitch 3+ innings or 50-60 pitches. That would rest the high leverage arms, keeping everyone fresh. That’s the missing link to the superpen.

 

I don’t think I’d use Barnes and High Leverage in the same sentence...unless if it’s for he should never be in them.

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Bullpen now has 4 high leverage arms Counsell loves, Guerra Burnes Jeffress Hader.

 

With Peralta able to pitch 2-4 innings, Houser needs replaced by Anderson when Nelson is in rotation. CC doesn’t trust Houser like he does Chase, so that would be two arms that could pitch 3+ innings or 50-60 pitches. That would rest the high leverage arms, keeping everyone fresh. That’s the missing link to the superpen.

 

I don’t think I’d use Barnes and High Leverage in the same sentence...unless if it’s for he should never be in them.

 

I'm not sure Anderson automatically goes to the pen. He stunk in the pen so far this year, but thrived as a starter. When Nelson comes back, he might be the pen arm. I'm not so sure on Jeffress as a high leverage arm just yet. His lastest outings haven't been very good even though his velocity looks to be back to normal. Burnes seems to have found a home and Guerra is steady.

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Bullpen now has 4 high leverage arms Counsell loves, Guerra Burnes Jeffress Hader.

 

With Peralta able to pitch 2-4 innings, Houser needs replaced by Anderson when Nelson is in rotation. CC doesn’t trust Houser like he does Chase, so that would be two arms that could pitch 3+ innings or 50-60 pitches. That would rest the high leverage arms, keeping everyone fresh. That’s the missing link to the superpen.

 

I don’t think I’d use Barnes and High Leverage in the same sentence...unless if it’s for he should never be in them.

 

I'm not sure Anderson automatically goes to the pen. He stunk in the pen so far this year, but thrived as a starter. When Nelson comes back, he might be the pen arm. I'm not so sure on Jeffress as a high leverage arm just yet. His lastest outings haven't been very good even though his velocity looks to be back to normal. Burnes seems to have found a home and Guerra is steady.

 

It’s gonna be interesting to see what the crew does when Nelson is ready. I believe 60% chance Anderson to the pen, but we’ll see, I also believe jimmy could dominate out of the pen.

 

To me, Jeffress looks dominant again, and I believe even more importantly CC believe’s that also.

 

Agree that Burnes belongs in the pen THIS year.

 

Guerra more than steady, he’s now one of the best pen arms in baseball. Stuff, demeanor, he can shut down a team for one two or three innings, rare bird.

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Brewers are #1 in baseball in innings pitched and second-to-last in quality starts. Things have improved, but the bullpen is still being overused.

 

Since the 3rd of May we have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. And getting better. And one of the ways it will improve moving forward is by having starter type arms that can pitch 3+ innings of quality baseball to rest the high leverage arms.

 

And that is what is happening, with Peralta now in the pen. With another replacing Houser June 1.

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I also believe jimmy could dominate out of the pen.

 

Can you please stop saying this. This team has made absolutely no indication that the thought of Nelson going to the pen has even crossed their minds. He's been a starting pitcher his whole career, they are stretching him out as a starter right now, and he's coming off a major+++ injury that likely necessitates a higher level of maintenance and recovery work between outings. That is not a guy you stick out in the pen and demand to get ready quickly for short, spontaneous outings.

 

I mean, I've been wrong before about this team, but on this one, I feel pretty darn certain. Jimmy Nelson isn't going to be a reliever this year. His options are starting for the MLB team, optioning him and starting him at AAA, or a trip back to the DL if he deemed not ready.

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