2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[FVBrewerFan]

If Brewers want to try for the longer version on 1st out getters think you almost should enter season with:

1st out getters

Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Davies, Anderson

 

2nd out getters

Peralta, Woodruff, Guerra

 

Middle out getters (6th & 7th)

Claudio & 1 of Williams, Houser, Wahl, Barnes, Albers

 

High leverage late out getters

Hader, Jeffress, Knebel

 

Don’t think it will work out this way but with the 3 long arms who can give you 3-4 innings when needed will help keep keep arms fresh. I don’t think Brewers will do the bullpening again until late in season.

 

Lot of quality arms to pick from! Spring will be fun!

 

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.

 

Why do you say that? Hader, Jeffress, Knebel handled late innings in close games all of last season and none of them were over-worked.

 

I think what we miss sometimes is this list of 13 is just the initial list. They will use at least 10 other pitchers over the course of the season. That's how the middle innings get eaten up, even some of the starts.

[bill hAll Star]

If Brewers want to try for the longer version on 1st out getters think you almost should enter season with:

1st out getters

Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Davies, Anderson

 

2nd out getters

Peralta, Woodruff, Guerra

 

Middle out getters (6th & 7th)

Claudio & 1 of Williams, Houser, Wahl, Barnes, Albers

 

High leverage late out getters

Hader, Jeffress, Knebel

 

Don’t think it will work out this way but with the 3 long arms who can give you 3-4 innings when needed will help keep keep arms fresh. I don’t think Brewers will do the bullpening again until late in season.

 

Lot of quality arms to pick from! Spring will be fun!

 

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.

 

Why do you say that? Hader, Jeffress, Knebel handled late innings in close games all of last season and none of them were over-worked.

 

I think what we miss sometimes is this list of 13 is just the initial list. They will use at least 10 other pitchers over the course of the season. That's how the middle innings get eaten up, even some of the starts.

 

Right. It's all about leverage management.

 

People hated Jennings more than they should have because Counsell left him in there to get eaten alive in games that we were losing 5-1 and his numbers were even worse than he actually was. We'll bring up Zagurski-esque scrubs as a last resort if the 2nd tier depth in the minors is also gassed or not ready. It's a risk, but the plan is to use an army of pitchers to get you through those less meaningful innings so that you can get most wins with certainty when you use the best part of your bullpen.

[KeithStone53151]

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.

 

Why do you say that? Hader, Jeffress, Knebel handled late innings in close games all of last season and none of them were over-worked.

 

I think what we miss sometimes is this list of 13 is just the initial list. They will use at least 10 other pitchers over the course of the season. That's how the middle innings get eaten up, even some of the starts.

 

I guess I shouldn't point specifically to the late inning plan, but you can't have 5 options for innings 6-9 every game. I don't care how good you are at shuffling from AAA, it's not sustainable...especially when the inevitable extra innings games happen. This bridges into the whole 1st out getter thing(which is just a fancy way of saying starting pitcher) and piggybacking...all this stuff works well on paper when everything goes perfectly to plan...but that's not reality.

[brewcrewdue80]

Clearly top two starters are Chacin and Burnes now. Nelson/Davies/Anderson probably 2 there with 1 injured/not worthy after spring training. Then Peralta or Woodruff whoever looks sharpest in spring training. You'll have Hader Kneble and Jeffress to back end RP. Its a solid setup with lots of potential. Nelson/Anderson have had great past season's, Burnes potential, could be best in Central

[bill hAll Star]

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.

 

Why do you say that? Hader, Jeffress, Knebel handled late innings in close games all of last season and none of them were over-worked.

 

I think what we miss sometimes is this list of 13 is just the initial list. They will use at least 10 other pitchers over the course of the season. That's how the middle innings get eaten up, even some of the starts.

 

I guess I shouldn't point specifically to the late inning plan, but you can't have 5 options for innings 6-9 every game. I don't care how good you are at shuffling from AAA, it's not sustainable...especially when the inevitable extra innings games happen. This bridges into the whole 1st out getter thing(which is just a fancy way of saying starting pitcher) and piggybacking...all this stuff works well on paper when everything goes perfectly to plan...but that's not reality.

 

It worked last year and we're risking that it works again this year. It's our only way forward.

 

Just like the Mets are praying that Jacob deGrom's arm stays healthy or Cleveland hopes for Kluber to pitch to his norms this year (this is a special case where they may win the division no matter what).

 

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

[KeithStone53151]

I guess I shouldn't point specifically to the late inning plan, but you can't have 5 options for innings 6-9 every game. I don't care how good you are at shuffling from AAA, it's not sustainable...especially when the inevitable extra innings games happen. This bridges into the whole 1st out getter thing(which is just a fancy way of saying starting pitcher) and piggybacking...all this stuff works well on paper when everything goes perfectly to plan...but that's not reality.

 

It worked last year and we're risking that it works again this year. It's our only way forward.

 

Just like the Mets are praying that Jacob deGrom's arm stays healthy or Cleveland hopes for Kluber to pitch to his norms this year (this is a special case where they may win the division no matter what).

 

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

 

No, it worked in September and the playoffs last year. Throughout the regular season, we had 5 starters and 8 relief pitcher...and operated as a bullpen normally does. The biggest difference we may see this year is more multi-inning relievers, but we won't see the September type stuff that everyone seems to remember so well from last year...at least not consistently throughout the season.

[Humans Need Water]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

What was Burnes' reaction when the Brewers told him "starter" means one time through the order according to bf.net

[bill hAll Star]

I guess I shouldn't point specifically to the late inning plan, but you can't have 5 options for innings 6-9 every game. I don't care how good you are at shuffling from AAA, it's not sustainable...especially when the inevitable extra innings games happen. This bridges into the whole 1st out getter thing(which is just a fancy way of saying starting pitcher) and piggybacking...all this stuff works well on paper when everything goes perfectly to plan...but that's not reality.

 

It worked last year and we're risking that it works again this year. It's our only way forward.

 

Just like the Mets are praying that Jacob deGrom's arm stays healthy or Cleveland hopes for Kluber to pitch to his norms this year (this is a special case where they may win the division no matter what).

 

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

 

No, it worked in September and the playoffs last year. Throughout the regular season, we had 5 starters and 8 relief pitcher...and operated as a bullpen normally does. The biggest difference we may see this year is more multi-inning relievers, but we won't see the September type stuff that everyone seems to remember so well from last year...at least not consistently throughout the season.

 

We still had pitchers getting yanked early and cycled in your Williams, Albers, Zagurski, and 10 other guys to pitch the 5th through 7th inning (or 9th) when the bullpen was out of gas or a blowout.

 

It was even better in September but we operate on an abbreviated version of it prior to September.

 

The Brewers had the 8th lowest innings pitched per start in the majors. 2 of the teams that had less were Tampa (obvious) and Oakland (also a heavy bullpenning team). The other 5 teams that had less were all the worst starting staffs in baseball and had guys pulled either due to performance or they were working in young pitchers that were capped most of the season.

[KeithStone53151]

No, it worked in September and the playoffs last year. Throughout the regular season, we had 5 starters and 8 relief pitcher...and operated as a bullpen normally does. The biggest difference we may see this year is more multi-inning relievers, but we won't see the September type stuff that everyone seems to remember so well from last year...at least not consistently throughout the season.

 

We still had pitchers getting yanked early and cycled in your Williams, Albers, Zagurski, and 10 other guys to pitch the 5th through 7th inning (or 9th) when the bullpen was out of gas or a blowout.

 

It was even better in September but we operate on an abbreviated version of it prior to September.

 

Well right, 10 other guys filling 7-8 bullpen spots. Not a 5 man bullpen caused by this piggybacking nonsense. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see our starters not go super deep into games unless they pitch well, but when I say that...I mean they'll pitch into the 5th-6th inning fairly consistently. We have a lot of multi-inning relievers so you have 7-8 guys to cover 3-4 innings most games...and most of these guys are able to pitch 2-3 innings if needed. We need more multi-inning relievers because we haven't invested as heavily into starting pitchers.

[Humans Need Water]

It worked last year and we're risking that it works again this year. It's our only way forward.

 

Just like the Mets are praying that Jacob deGrom's arm stays healthy or Cleveland hopes for Kluber to pitch to his norms this year (this is a special case where they may win the division no matter what).

 

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

 

People will be somehow be shocked to see the Brewers repeat what they did last year. That being 5 starters going 5-6 innings (or into the 7th depending on how they're throwing, pitch count, score, part of the opponent batting order up, etc). Most pitchers have the occasional garbage start or a start where they might only give up 1-2 runs in 4 innings but are doing so while struggling with command allowing plenty of runners on base. In both of these instances they'll be pulled and that's where the versatility pitchers come in (ie Woodruff, Guerra, Peralta as of now) to eat up 2-3 innings. But there are going to be stretches where the entire rotation is effective so that's where these guys can be used in high leverage situations (Woodruff) or throwing the final 3 innings (Guerra/Peralta) giving the rest of the pen the night off. They can also spot start if someone needs to skip a start due to minor injury or rest (ie Burnes) but 70-75% of the time the 7-8 man pen is going to operate like a relatively normal pen. We'll just have flexibility to shut down early chaos using "starters" (Woodruff/Guerra/Peralta) to keep it from getting out of hand so we can work our way back for a W.

 

*that is exactly what happened last year* outside of the final several weeks when they were operating like it was the playoffs because that was the only way to get there (not to mention all the injuries we had to the rotation). Then they had *one week* off between the end of the season and the CO series, which had days off within the series too. People can push the "one time through the order/initial out getter/whatever garbage term they want to use for a guy going 3 innings max to start the game" narrative all they want but that's not reality. That's not what's going to happen and there's *zero* evidence of *that* happening last year outside of the aforementioned final couple weeks and playoffs, which is when most teams operate differently for obvious reasons.

 

Even if Woodruff and/or Peralta are in the rotation we still have Albers, Barnes, Williams, Houser, Wahl, Derby in the pen after Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio + any of Woodruff, Peralta, Guerra who aren't starting. We'd also still have Brown and Tomlin in AAA who can start or be used in the versatility pen role. That's 10 rotation arms already plus some other AAA arms who would be emergency options (Wilkerson and such). Adding a Keuchel or Gio makes the rotation arms even deeper, which in turn makes the entire pitching staff deeper.

 

Since Burnes was told he's starting I'm assuming he's joining Chacin, Chase, Davies. That 5th spot is a FA, Nelson (depending on spring) or Woodruff/Peralta (I'd bank on Peralta here if it's between them as it makes us better as a team having Woodruff in his right-handed Hader role vs Peralta there - better control and stuff plays up in short bursts).

[Ennder]

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

 

Sure but we really have no other choice, we do not have a single pitcher who can reliably break 160 IP or that can reliably work its way through the order a 3rd time. We pretty much have to go with a bullpen heavy strategy. It is going to tax the AAA/AA depth a bit as we will probably have to make some moves just to get fresh arms onto the team at some points.

[Jenkins5]

If Brewers want to try for the longer version on 1st out getters think you almost should enter season with:

1st out getters

Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Davies, Anderson

 

2nd out getters

Peralta, Woodruff, Guerra

 

Middle out getters (6th & 7th)

Claudio & 1 of Williams, Houser, Wahl, Barnes, Albers

 

High leverage late out getters

Hader, Jeffress, Knebel

 

Don’t think it will work out this way but with the 3 long arms who can give you 3-4 innings when needed will help keep keep arms fresh. I don’t think Brewers will do the bullpening again until late in season.

 

Lot of quality arms to pick from! Spring will be fun!

 

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.

 

I stated twice I don’t see them doing it that way but was basing it off if they wanted to try bullpenning all year. Starters still go 5 if not 6 if they don’t get in trouble early. Not a true piggyback. But having those 3 long arms that can come in and pitch 2-3 innings & shorten games should keep pen fresh. Figure Peralta, Woody, Guerra can handle 2-3 outings a week getting you 6-7 innings a week. Claudio & last RP eat innings in lower leverage spots. To me this saves need to over pitch the big three & only throw them in leverage situations.

 

I’m still a believer in traditional starters going deep however, that’s not way our rotation is built nor way CC manages. We don’t have guys you can count on giving you 7 innings a night. You kind of just hope for 6.

 

If I had to bet I’d go with

Chacin

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Burnes

 

Woodruff 6th man and long guy. This is important with Jimmy coming back & assuming they will manage innings. Anderson & Davies for their off days where they are shelled.

 

You have big 3 in backend with Jeffress Hader Knebel & Claudio looked in for lefty middle relief

 

That’s 10 locks then you will have a battle & cycling of other arms

We have 3 guys with no options: Houser Albers Guerra

Then option guys like Williams, Wahl, Barnes Peralta

 

Be interesting how it shakes out

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I with Mr. Stone on this one. The bullpening from September and playoffs isn’t sustainable for the regular season. The starters need to be decent to good and go deepish in to games more times than not. Also a reason I like Keuchel to soak up innings.

[clancyphile]

I with Mr. Stone on this one. The bullpening from September and playoffs isn’t sustainable for the regular season. The starters need to be decent to good and go deepish in to games more times than not. Also a reason I like Keuchel to soak up innings.

 

If they get Keuchel, they can option Nelson to AAA.

 

Nelson may want to be there opening day, but I'll believe it when I see it. If the Crew gets Keuchel, they should not feel pressured to put Nelson on the MLB roster. Use an option, have him build himself back up in San Antonio.

[brewcrewdue80]

We're risking a very contingency-based bullpen management strategy in lieu of having frontline aces.

 

Sure but we really have no other choice, we do not have a single pitcher who can reliably break 160 IP or that can reliably work its way through the order a 3rd time. We pretty much have to go with a bullpen heavy strategy. It is going to tax the AAA/AA depth a bit as we will probably have to make some moves just to get fresh arms onto the team at some points.

 

Chacin has gone longer than 160IP each of last two seasons. Nelson went 170+ 3 straight years prior to his injury. Anderson has had 3 occasions of above 150 IP(point noted) Burnes highest total to date in a single season seems to be 145, but you know he could eclipse 160. Same can be said for Peralta after last year an increase above 160. Woodruff went 158 so another likely capable increase above 160.

Davies pitched 191 in 2017. Junior Guerra had ~148IP last season.

 

That is 8 pitchers who should be able to bring 160 IP or more out of them if needed. You could go numerous times during the year stretching the starters 7IP if the bullpen needed rest, or just Piggyback 1 with the other 2 extra SPs giving bullpen a rest.

I know your point is valid with "reliably" but it's not like years past 2015 for example where you are handing starts to Tyler Cravy, Ariel Pena, Jorge Lopez, Tyler Wagner, and a 22yr old Rookie Zach Davies.

Pitching wasn't what held 2018's team back, the hitting did. We're most definitely stronger as a staff heading in to 2019 than the staff was for 2018.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think we're getting caught up with semantics. Piggybacking, bullpenning, long man, etc.

 

Bottom line, in general starters will not go deep into games, just like last season. Third time through the lineup will be avoided whenever possible. They will use their pen a ton, and shuttle guys up to cover innings so nobody is burned out. We'll also see more than 5 starters, so that will keep the starters innings down as well.

 

None of this should really be a surprise, it's what they did last season- and not just September/October. That's when they took it to the extreme, and no we won't see that level of "bullpenning" for the entire season.

[markedman5]

Houser granted another option......

[long ball]

Houser granted another option......

 

That's good news for the Brewers and maybe good news for Houser. He will definitely get big league innings this season and gets to stay on the 40 man without potentially bouncing around on the waiver wire like Oliver Drake.

[brewmann04]

Great news on Houser good to hear.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Can we put this piggybacking nonsense to bed now? Yes, Counsell operates with an early hook. That's just the way he manages. It's great having guys in the pen that can go multiple innings, but they are still going to want/expect long starts from their starters. The Brewers aren't reinventing the wheel.

[Humans Need Water]

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Can we put this piggybacking nonsense to bed now? Yes, Counsell operates with an early hook. That's just the way he manages. It's great having guys in the pen that can go multiple innings, but they are still going to want/expect long starts from their starters. The Brewers aren't reinventing the wheel.

I put it to bed months ago using last season as evidence. What I described (again) a dozen posts up is exactly how it's going to play out.

 

Anybody seen True Blue Brew Crew anywhere on this subject matter.....WAIT AND SEE!!!!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Can we put this piggybacking nonsense to bed now? Yes, Counsell operates with an early hook. That's just the way he manages. It's great having guys in the pen that can go multiple innings, but they are still going to want/expect long starts from their starters. The Brewers aren't reinventing the wheel.

I put it to bed months ago using last season as evidence. What I described (again) a dozen posts up is exactly how it's going to play out.

 

Anybody seen True Blue Brew Crew anywhere on this subject matter.....WAIT AND SEE!!!!

 

Yep, I think your post nailed the situation. In fact, that's why it still wouldn't surprise me to see them bring in Keuchel. Not only would that give them a lefty in the rotation, it would also provide length.

 

I'm sure True Blue will eventually show up with some sort of post backtracking on his original thoughts, though, or instead calling us all out as not truly understanding the "revolution".

[Humans Need Water]

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Can we put this piggybacking nonsense to bed now? Yes, Counsell operates with an early hook. That's just the way he manages. It's great having guys in the pen that can go multiple innings, but they are still going to want/expect long starts from their starters. The Brewers aren't reinventing the wheel.

I put it to bed months ago using last season as evidence. What I described (again) a dozen posts up is exactly how it's going to play out.

 

Anybody seen True Blue Brew Crew anywhere on this subject matter.....WAIT AND SEE!!!!

 

Yep, I think your post nailed the situation. In fact, that's why it still wouldn't surprise me to see them bring in Keuchel. Not only would that give them a lefty in the rotation, it would also provide length.

 

I'm sure True Blue will eventually show up with some sort of post backtracking on his original thoughts, though, or instead calling us all out as not truly understanding the "revolution".

Agree on Keuchel. I still think Gio is a legitimate possibility as well. Would also give us 9 solid or better starters + Tomlin/Brown in AAA

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Agree on Keuchel. I still think Gio is a legitimate possibility as well. Would also give us 9 solid or better starters + Tomlin/Brown in AAA

 

I love the pitching depth, both in the rotation and the pen, that this team has amassed. You can never have enough solid pitching depth, and they provide high value, as there are always teams looking for pitching should the Brewers get to the end of Spring Training and have a hole at another place on the roster to fill.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Lol at doing this celebratory dancing based on what Counsell is saying when he clearly left open for plenty of interpretation.

 

“We have to remember that we’re going back to 25-man rosters, we’re going to have a game every day,” Counsell said. “What you saw in September and October, you won’t see. It’s going to look different.

 

“We’ve got to get pitchers that are going to get a whole bunch of outs in a game. That’s the best way for us to be successful, to have guys at the start of the game get us a whole bunch of outs.”

 

Did I miss where he said they're going back to a traditional 5 man rotation? Did I ever say they were going to continue to use a pitcher for one out to start the game? Nothing Counsell said equals no piggybacking or tandems. "it's going to look different" is your clue that they're still going to be doing non-traditional things.

 

The same people declaring there won't be piggybacks or tandems in 2019 even though Counsell didn't say that, are the ones expecting additional starters to be signed. At some point you'd have no choice but to pair some of them up.

 

Wait and see.