2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Toby H (And That) predicted on Twitter that Rasmussen would be in Biloxi by mid-May and by gosh he was right. He's now saying that if Drew fares well in AA over the next couple months, an appearance in Milwaukee by year's end is quite possible. I don't see any reason to think otherwise.

 

He was a college senior draftee from a big program, so he's used to facing top college competition. I imagine he'll have a lot tougher go of it at AA, facing the type of hitting he's more used to facing in college. If he continues to deal, it is certainly possible he sees ML innings this year. He definitely fits the blueprint for what the Brewers like in their relievers.

[shanedog19]

Would anyone (including Counsell) trust Matt Albers to come in during a meaningful juncture of a ballgame? I certainly wouldn't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Would anyone (including Counsell) trust Matt Albers to come in during a meaningful juncture of a ballgame? I certainly wouldn't.

 

He's been fine for the most part. He's been scored on in 4 of 15 appearances. Had blow-up appearances against the Dodgers (3 ER) and Cubs (2) before today. Days like today certainly won't help where he lines up on the bullpen totem pole, buts he's been far from a gas can this season.

[Brew crew 92]

Would anyone (including Counsell) trust Matt Albers to come in during a meaningful juncture of a ballgame? I certainly wouldn't.

 

He's been fine for the most part. He's been scored on in 4 of 15 appearances. Had blow-up appearances against the Dodgers (3 ER) and Cubs (2) before today. Days like today certainly won't help where he lines up on the bullpen totem pole, buts he's been far from a gas can this season.

 

I also think Albers not a good mop up pitcher, I think the lack of adrenaline, for a pitcher that’s pitched in as many high leverage situations as Albers, hurts him. I would trust Matt Albers in big game situations more than most.

[mrn1ceguy]

Drew Rasmussen is pitching in A ball right now. Why is he even being discussed for a playoff roster spot? Falling in love with prospects is one thing but my lord is this just absolutely crazy. Let the guy develop and work his way through the system at least.

 

Well, he just got bumped to AA today. So in about a month he went from A -> A+ -> AA with only needing 5 showings to prove his worth. If he is in AAA by mid-July and continuing to dominate, I would consider it a definite possibility. I expect him to run into challenges at some point in time, most likely with AA where he will stay all year. That being said the Brewers are definitely advancing him hard and quick so it is a realistic possibility.

 

He is a college pitcher...or was. Getting to AA fast isn't that hard. Things slow down fast once you get to AA. Especially since he is a starter as it stands. They would have to make him a reliever to push him all the way to the MLB level this year.

 

Look at Burnes, those kind of movements are normal for guys. Blow through A- through A+....then you get stuck at AA for a solid half year and then maybe get the bump to AAA if utterly dominating. Him at the MLB level this year would be massive optimism...not impossible he could be a September call-up...but man that is crazy optimistic and assuming he pitches like the next great thing without a single bump in the road till then

 

But getting to AA after only 5 appearances? I've never seen anyone for the Brewers do that. As fast as Burnes was, he had 3 rookie league appearances, 9 in A, and 10 in A+ before getting the bump to AA. Burnes doing it in 22 appearances is also the best Brewer I can remember. But even if you want to consider Burnes rise as normal for advanced prospects, what Rasmussen doing is other worldly. Obviously he now needs to perform in AA as good as he has been and show he is still a man among boys before he would be bumped to AAA, but its getting closer to a possibility.

[coolhandluke121]

Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?

[Brew crew 92]

Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?

 

For this year yes.

Because of his tj’s max 50 pitches/outing. But he has a starters mix, 99 fb plus plus slider, plus change and great command.

[pacopete4]

Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?

 

For this year yes.

Because of his tj’s max 50 pitches/outing. But he has a starters mix, 99 fb plus plus slider, plus change and great command.

 

So our sixth ace?

[Brew crew 92]

Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?

 

For this year yes.

Because of his tj’s max 50 pitches/outing. But he has a starters mix, 99 fb plus plus slider, plus change and great command.

 

So our sixth ace?

 

We have a couple potential tor arms, if the crew let him start next year I’d add him as potential tor, yes.

[MrTPlush]

Saw this on ESPN tonight:

 

Occurrences of pitchers throwing 100+ pitches in a game.

 

2010 - 2,400

2018 - 1,200

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Saw this on ESPN tonight:

 

Occurrences of pitchers throwing 100+ pitches in a game.

 

2010 - 2,400

2018 - 1,200

I think the most surprising part of this is that you learned something of use on ESPN.

[FVBrewerFan]

Would you say he projects as a right-handed Hader?

 

For this year yes.

Because of his tj’s max 50 pitches/outing. But he has a starters mix, 99 fb plus plus slider, plus change and great command.

 

So our sixth ace?

 

LIKE

[MrTPlush]

Saw this on ESPN tonight:

 

Occurrences of pitchers throwing 100+ pitches in a game.

 

2010 - 2,400

2018 - 1,200

I think the most surprising part of this is that you learned something of use on ESPN.

 

When the hotel only has like 35 channels options can be limited.

 

Though in more ESPN appropriate fashion one guy questioned if Fiers average career made his no-hitters less relevant and impressive. Some people are truly idiots.

[Eye Black]

Took a look at where Brandon Woodruff currently ranks among all qualified major league starters in a handful of categories...

 

13th in Strikeouts (54 total)

 

9th in K/9 (11.48)

 

15th in K% (29.7%)

 

40th in BB/9 (2.55)

 

25th in HR/9 (0.85)

 

59th in ERA (4.25)

 

9th in FIP (2.87)

 

13th in xFIP (3.32)

 

11th in fWAR (1.2)

 

68th in WHIP (1.37)

 

Dead Last in BABIP (.385)

 

There are only ten guys even within 50 percentage points of his BABIP. That is seemingly an unsustainably high BABIP that is almost assuredly going to lower as the season progresses. In other words I am buying into Brandon Woodruff from this point moving forward.

[OldHeidelberg]

It seems like just a week ago that Woody was being thrown on the disappointment pile, and I remember a lot of comparisons to Wily Peralta early last season. But while they are similar hard throwing big guys Wily never seemed to carry the K rate to match his stuff. No problem there for Woodruff, I think he looks to be on a different trajectory for sure.

[coolhandluke121]

I was totally on board giving all the young guys a chance, but in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising that Woodruff appears to be the only guy who was ready. He's had more time to shore up his command and his offerings. That stuff matters a lot, regardless of raw talent. He looks kind of like Nelson in talent (not quite blue chip, but still good)except with a shorter "figuring it out" phase.

 

It would be a good argument for giving Burnes and Peralta more seasoning in AAA if the Brewers weren't contenders who desperately need them in the pen.

[Brew crew 92]

I was totally on board giving all the young guys a chance, but in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising that Woodruff appears to be the only guy who was ready. He's had more time to shore up his command and his offerings. That stuff matters a lot, regardless of raw talent. He looks kind of like Nelson in talent (not quite blue chip, but still good)except with a shorter "figuring it out" phase.

 

It would be a good argument for giving Burnes and Peralta more seasoning in AAA if the Brewers weren't contenders who desperately need them in the pen.

 

Agree that woodruff was the only one ready for the rotation, age, experience likely the reason. I would slightly differ with the good but not blue chip commentary, his easy 97 And plus slider and close to plus command has him at the good level now with an improving change-up and command probably moving him closer to the top of the rotation in the near future.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.

[OldHeidelberg]

I'm just saying he wasn't considered a blue chip guy like Burnes coming up. No question if he keeps improving he will be very good. It's kind of like saying de Grom wasn't as blue chip as Harvey or Syndergaard coming up. It's true, but it doesn't mean he didn't end up being the best.

 

I remember both Woodruff and Burnes having mid rotation upside in scouting reports and both seemed to top out about the same in prospect rankings. There aren't a lot of prospects that get ace or TOR type outlooks but like you say that doesn't mean these guys can't get there.

[Lathund]

Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.

[MrTPlush]

Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.

 

If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....

[jjfanec]

The pitching staff was always going to start to look better when they start going against poorer hitting teams. Those last 14 days covers the Mets, Rockies, Mets, and Nationals who sit 17-21 in OPS ranking as a team. Before that they were playing a lot against the Cards, Dodgers, and Cubs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.

 

If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....

 

If anything, it's a reminder of the highs and lows that every team goes through over a 162-game season. This team will have more stretches this year where the pitching looks like trash, and fans are ready to give up. And it will have more stretches just like the last week when the pitching looks World Series-caliber.

[sveumrules]

The results, as we know, have been dreadful.

 

At this still very early juncture the only results that matter are wins & losses, we are 13-9.

 

Individual category ranks for our pitchers prior to tonight's game were...

 

K9 9.34 (12th) BB9 3.94 (22nd) HR9 1.85 (28th)

ERA 5.21 (25th) FIP 5.07 (25th) xFIP 4.34 (17th)

 

The only thing dreadful is a fluky high HR9 (which can happen over less than 200 team IP thus far) which is driving the poor ERA/FIP numbers.

 

I'd bet our ERA/FIP are closer to our current xFIP at season's end than their current levels.

 

Thought it might be interesting to revisit this post from April 20th & see how the last three weeks have changed things...

 

K9 9.33 (9th) BB9 3.66 (20th) HR9 1.51 (26th)

ERA 4.60 (21st) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.14 (10th)

 

So in just under three weeks our current ERA/FIP have almost caught up with our xFIP from April 20th, while our current xFIP has lowered to a top 10 mark on account of our gains in BB9/HR9 & other teams' losses in K9.

 

Interesting to note is that our ERA is currently underperforming our xFIP, while over the last three years it has been the exact opposite with our ERA outperforming our xFIP by an average of 0.30 per season. (3.94 ERA vs 4.24 xFIP, 2016-18)

 

Assuming DJ's pixie dust wasn't solely responsible for that, it could indicate that our pitching staff is due for even more positive regression than some of the surface level indicators say.

[Lathund]

Over the last 14 days, the Brewers pitching staff has the 7th best ERA (3.31) in the majors, and the 2nd best xFIP (3.57). Pitching staff coming around nicely, run prevention steadily approaching the peripherals. Almost as if past results, projections and certain advanced metrics all, separately, are better than March/April ERA and HR rates at judging the actual talent level and future performance.

 

If only 14 days of a baseball season predicted future performance too....

 

Of course they don't, but they also don't need to. After a tough schedule, a lot of bad luck, and some roster moves, the run prevention is simply getting more and more in line with what the underlying performance says it "should" be. The metrics that even when the staff ERA was in the mid 5s and the HR rate was on a record setting pace suggested that this staff was in fact a roughly average to above average one.

 

The pitching staff was always going to start to look better when they start going against poorer hitting teams.

 

That, and the peripherals, would have lead a reasonable person to that conclusion, yes. Playing 20/26 games against the Cardinals, Dodgers and Cubs isn't ideal. But that wasn't exactly the prevailing opinion here. There was quite a lot of doom and gloom; sell at the deadline, sign Kimbrel now or we'd be out of the race by mid May etc.