2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Simply stated, if you're going to avoid a 3rd trip through like the plague, your staff better be constructed with an ample amount of long arms and starter types to accommodate it. Instead they're relying on the shuttle system which exposes the team to using lesser arms. I'm sure it will go over like a turd in a punch bowl here if Burch Smith is relied upon in a tight game and blows it.

[TURBO]

I'm sure it will go over like a turd in a punch bowl here if Burch Smith is relied upon in a tight game and blows it.

 

You know it's going to happen, it is inevitable...

[brewmann04]

I guess during a 162 game stretch we will have the issues with the staff.but it nice to have some starters go longer.

[Brew crew 92]

Simply stated, if you're going to avoid a 3rd trip through like the plague, your staff better be constructed with an ample amount of long arms and starter types to accommodate it. Instead they're relying on the shuttle system which exposes the team to using lesser arms. I'm sure it will go over like a turd in a punch bowl here if Burch Smith is relied upon in a tight game and blows it.

 

Very true.

I don’t think the crew has been able to deploy more than one starter type into the pen as of yet. But with Gio on board, and Nelson expected back in the next couple weeks, I believe they will go with 2 multi-inning arms from among Houser Wilkerson Peralta Nelson Woodruff. Not perfect, I’d prefer 3, but with CC letting a starter pitch thru 6 occasionally, we should be ok.

[trwi7]

Reds have blown 8 and 4 run leads in the series against a really bad Giants offense.

[xisxisxis]

Reds have blown 8 and 4 run leads in the series against a really bad Giants offense.

FIRE the pitching coach!

[The stache]

I'm feeling so much better about things since we brought Gio back. A solid veteran pitcher that can eat up a lot of innings while keeping his team in the game.

 

It's a small sample size (seven starts), but his FIP with the Brewers (3.07) is nearly identical to his career peak between 2012-2015 (3.08). That's likely not sustainable, but it's encouraging. Even if he has an occasional rough outing, his being back in a Brewers uniform will help the bullpen stay sharper.

 

Now, if the bats would just wake up.

[Jenkins5]

Praise Davies for every 5th day giving us consistency so far. Only one right now doing so. Gio is off to good start as well.

[wntrtxn21]

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2811251

 

Today DRA (Deserved Run Average) finally became available on Baseball Prospectus; it needs to collect a few weeks of data first as it factors in quality of opposition and such things. It's noteworthy because of all the publicly available metrics it has the best predictive value, the highest consistency, and it also reaches that point based on much smaller samples than other metrics. I'd say the last one is the most important at this point.

 

Anyway, it's not gospel or infallible or anything, just another (rather good) data set to take into account. But it's suggesting that based on how the team has been pitching, the results normally would have been better. And thus, continuing to do what they've done would see the pitching staff as an about middle of the road staff (16th) overall. Which is worse than we'd like, but take into account the following too: Brewers have used 20 pitchers, the 10 best contributors by DRA are all on the current roster. And that this isn't an old decrepit staff, there was nothing to suggest that Chacin was suddenly that 6+ ERA guy, that Jacob Barnes is suddenly 2 runs worse than in the past, or that even Alex Wilson has gone from a career 3.44 ERA to 9.53. In other words, the perfomance so far can better be described as "meh" rather than "awful". And that getting a better picture of who will or will not best help us out, adding some new blood (Gio, Jeffress, hopefully a healthy Nelson soon), and some talented guys hopefully figuring some things out (Burnes, Peralta) should see better underlying performance, and thus better run prevention, going forward.

 

TL;DR: April stats don't tell us much of value, less than stats in any other month of the year does. DRA is better at cutting through the noise, and in doing so better at predicting the future.

 

Please don't put much emphasis on something so subjective as DRA. DRA even takes into account someone's opinion of the umpire, the catcher calling the game and framing, temp., someone's opinion of the park, the team's defense, etc.... Because there are far too many variables based on opinion, not fact, DRA is in the eye of the beholder.

 

And by taking all that into account, it does a better job than any publicly available stat out there in predicting future run prevention. Because those things matter, they affect how a pitchers performance translates into preventing runs. Most of what you call "opinion" has a lot of data behind it. In the statcast era, framing isn't a matter of "someone's opinion". Nor is it "someone's opinion" that Marlins Park and Coors Field have an effect on the game. I'm especially intrigued by how temperature is an "opinion". Not to mention that all those things only add up to a small part of the DRA total. It's still about about singles, doubles, HRs, walks, strikeouts etc, all these other things just add context and slightly modify the run values. No stat is perfect, but it's the best we have. Far better than using ERA over a 20 inning sample to make definitive statements.

 

Temp. isnn't an opinion, it's the difference that temp. makes in the game that's an opinion. Parks have an effect on the game, but again, it's an opinion as to the degree of effect a Coors Field compared to a Wrigley with the wind blowing out will have. Or a Padres ball park compared to other parks. ERA cannot be used alone as a determining fact on a pitcher. However it cannot be dismissed either. WHIP is a better factor, but again, cannot be used as a sole factor. Neither is subjective. Look at WAR. Extremely subjective. There are at least three different WAR descriptives out there. All three vary greatly with many of the mid-level players, based on opinion.

[Lathund]

Temp. isnn't an opinion, it's the difference that temp. makes in the game that's an opinion. Parks have an effect on the game, but again, it's an opinion as to the degree of effect a Coors Field compared to a Wrigley with the wind blowing out will have. Or a Padres ball park compared to other parks. ERA cannot be used alone as a determining fact on a pitcher. However it cannot be dismissed either. WHIP is a better factor, but again, cannot be used as a sole factor. Neither is subjective. Look at WAR. Extremely subjective. There are at least three different WAR descriptives out there. All three vary greatly with many of the mid-level players, based on opinion.

 

The effects of temperature and ballparks still isn't a matter of opinion. They're derived from differences in scoring and batted ball results over large samples. They're not perfect, but treating raw slash lines from a Marlins player and a Rockies player the exact same is far less useful and more flawed.

 

The thing about ERA though is that it is in fact subjective; it's subject to the judgement of the official scorer. An error can mean that a barrage of hits and walks after that are treated as unearned runs. Which is fair in the sense that those plate appearances shouldn't have happened, but as a measure of performance it's not very useful because they did happen. A different scorer (Home vs away, or if the batter has a hitting streak going or w/e) can judge plays differently. But in addition to subjectiveness, it's also lacking. ERA also does a poor job when it comes to relievers and inherited runners. Reliever inherits a runner at 1st with 2 outs. He proceeds to walk three straight batters before recording the final out. Starter gets docked for 1 ER, reliever for 0, which hardly reflects their performance that inning. It shouldn't be dismissed, but it's very important to not treat it as gospel, especially over small sample sizes. Because it is subjective, and in the short term can be very volatile and not really be reflective of performance, and even less so of talent. WHIP is better in some ways, and it is more objective, but it's very limited. It doesn't say anything about whether the hits were XBH or not. Nor does it take into account, for example, strikeouts or double plays; pitchers who generate a lot of both, or either, don't get punished as much for allowing baseunners. And over small samples, even hits allowed carries a lot of randomness and luck.

 

The reason I like DRA better than some other metrics is that it's based on what happens at the plate. At its heart it's essentially the inverse of wOBA/wRC (And thus very similar in results to OPS), i.e it adds up all the outcomes of plate appearances; 1B, HR, BB, HBP, GIDP etc and their effect on run scoring. Using DRA (or wOBA/OPS against, though they don't include controlling the running game, or double plays) to judge pitching performance is similar to using wOBA/wRC+/OPS (i.e essentially the triple slash) to judge a players offense. Whereas ERA (or RA9) is like using RBI + runs to judge a players offense. The latter does tell you something, it tells you the eventual result of the players performance once his teammates performance is added onto it. And over the long run, they will line up pretty well with things like OPS (+ baserunning). But runs scored and runs allowed are still a product of singles and doubles and HRs and walks. So in looking to, in any way shape or form, try to evaluate which player will do better in the future it's better to look at stats based of inputs rather than results. People vastly underestimate the variance in baseball, and the effects of sequencing, that in turn affects run scoring. And just how big a sample you need to draw any conclusions from things like ERA.

 

Anyway, regardless of ones view of what's relevant, what's objective or not, the methodology behind it etc, I'd like to return to my original point: To predict the future run prevention of this (or any) pitching staff, DRA is a much, much better metric than one month of ERA. Or two. Or three. That much is fact. For that matter, so are SIERA, xFIP, FIP and K%-BB%. Haven't seen any data on it, but I'd imagine that even WHIP beats ERA at this point. Use ERA for awards season, or for hall of fame voting, or to evaluate large chunks of time. But not for this.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Don't look now, but the Brewers are getting umm "creative" tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken it will be in defiance of a few "never will happen" outside of September / October" proclamations I might have heard somewhere. Was that here? Nah, must have been somewhere else.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Don't look now, but the Brewers are getting umm "creative" tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken it will be in defiance of a few "never will happen" outside of September / October" proclamations I might have heard somewhere. Was that here? Nah, must have been somewhere else.

 

C'mon man ... the only, and I mean ONLY reason they are doing it is because your boy sucks in the 1st inning. This is far from being some sort of regular thing.

 

But I suppose they are employing an "opener" in a May baseball game, so .... props.

[JosephC]

It is interesting how dominant Peralta was against right handed hitters last year (.111/.209/.188/.396), and how they are just feasting on him this year (.333/.404/.647/1.051). Burnes went from starter to bubble to reliever and Woodruff went from starter to bubble and, at least for now, seems pretty safe in the rotation. Peralta will have to start showing improvement pretty quick. His major issues early in ballgames is pretty much saying that he probably cannot be counted on to be an effective MLB reliever. One more blowup from him and I'd put him back in AAA. Hopefully he can rebound like Woodruff did.

 

Big opportunity for Houser too. He'll be pitching on two days rest, I think that would limit him to about 60 pitches considering he's been a starter for most of this year. Would be pretty wonderful if the plan was to pitch him two innings, but he did so well that Counsell left him out there for four. An excellent opportunity for Adrian to go out there and earn some more MLB innings.

[homer]

Don't look now, but the Brewers are getting umm "creative" tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken it will be in defiance of a few "never will happen" outside of September / October" proclamations I might have heard somewhere. Was that here? Nah, must have been somewhere else.

 

Here's the thing....if this is a one-off and they have regular starters the next 6 weeks don't be surprised and or offended if people come after you. It will be well-earned.

[RollieTime]

Don't look now, but the Brewers are getting umm "creative" tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken it will be in defiance of a few "never will happen" outside of September / October" proclamations I might have heard somewhere. Was that here? Nah, must have been somewhere else.

 

Don’t look now, but I said that baseball will start to go back to less homeruns and putting the ball in play more to manufacture runs. They won yesterday 5-3 and didn’t hit as much as a single homerun. The changes have already begun and it happened a day before your creative pitching shenanigans were implemented. Should of hopped on my bandwagon earlier. I win .

[tmwiese55]

Don't look now, but the Brewers are getting umm "creative" tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken it will be in defiance of a few "never will happen" outside of September / October" proclamations I might have heard somewhere. Was that here? Nah, must have been somewhere else.

 

Here's the thing....if this is a one-off and they have regular starters the next 6 weeks don't be surprised and or offended if people come after you. It will be well-earned.

 

This guy just can't help himself. Gotta respect the doubling down though.

 

This was forced due to an injury to Anderson and a starter being awful in his last few starts. This is by no means their 'plan', they're being forced into it.

 

Now, if this creative move gets lit up today should everyone here come in with a bunch of "told ya so's" about how it won't work, etc? No, we realize it is what is. Odd situations forcing bullpen days has happened forever

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

Lead with that next time

 

I'm looking forward to tonight's game because they are thinking outside the box in an attempt to get an uber-talented young pitcher right. If we want to see success for this team long-term, it's going to take developing talented arms like Peralta, and finding ways to help them find the most success.

[Brew crew 92]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

Lead with that next time

 

I'm looking forward to tonight's game because they are thinking outside the box in an attempt to get an uber-talented young pitcher right. If we want to see success for this team long-term, it's going to take developing talented arms like Peralta, and finding ways to help them find the most success.

 

Great takes from the both of you.

Agree it’s a creative way to try to get Peralta right with-out sending him back to AAA just yet. And Houser is real talented as well, be great if they both can help the big league team this year even if it’s out of the pen pitching multi-innings.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

No, this isn't anything new. Every team, every year has a game or more where they need to bring up someone from the bullpen or minors to start a game in a pinch. They try to get 4 innings, with a long reliever following him. You can call Peralta a tandem starter, piggyback, whatever you want but it's the same thing as long relief.

 

Sorry, this new philosophy you've been touting is not becoming true. Also, I like the way you keep saying "it's coming." That way you can never be wrong.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

No, this isn't anything new. Every team, every year has a game or more where they need to bring up someone from the bullpen or minors to start a game in a pinch. They try to get 4 innings, with a long reliever following him. You can call Peralta a tandem starter, piggyback, whatever you want but it's the same thing as long relief.

 

Sorry, this new philosophy you've been touting is not becoming true. Also, I like the way you keep saying "it's coming." That way you can never be wrong.

 

This is a little different in that they technically have a starter available to take the turn in Peralta, so it isn't a true bullpen game. It's more of a "our young starter sucks in the first inning, so lets throw the noodles against a wall" game. Results are pretty much the same though.

[homer]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

This should have been your original post. So please...for the sake of the board....leave it alone until it actually becomes a thing.

[MadScientist]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

No, this isn't anything new. Every team, every year has a game or more where they need to bring up someone from the bullpen or minors to start a game in a pinch. They try to get 4 innings, with a long reliever following him. You can call Peralta a tandem starter, piggyback, whatever you want but it's the same thing as long relief.

 

Sorry, this new philosophy you've been touting is not becoming true. Also, I like the way you keep saying "it's coming." That way you can never be wrong.

 

This is a little different in that they technically have a starter available to take the turn in Peralta, so it isn't a true bullpen game. It's more of a "our young starter sucks in the first inning, so lets throw the noodles against a wall" game. Results are pretty much the same though.

 

Not sure if this qualifies, but June 30th 1987, the Brewers started Mark Clear, for his only start of his career. After 3.1 innings they brought in Chuck Crim who had started 5 games earlier that month. Crim was a starter in the low minors, but was mainly a reliever after that. His only other start came in 94.

[Brew crew 92]

Don't worry, I don't mind if this is a one-off thing and people jump at the chance to throw it back in my face. The reason is, in time I know it's coming. Whether the go 3 straight months after this of doing it traditionally, or start doing it regularly, what I've been expecting will come in time. Yes, I know this occurrence is mostly circumstantial, and my post is thus mostly tongue in cheek. The smallest part of me is excited that they're even willing do it in a game in May. In days past, today's formula wouldn't even be considered. So I take that as progress. This is how change happens. Rarely do teams dive in. It comes in small doses. Today is a dose, a test run, an out of box way that wasn't even a glimmer of an idea in the past and for some teams, still isn't. Hope it works today and will laugh at the overreaction if it doesn't. I can tell you right now, I won't come in here boasting a huge victory if Houser and Perlata team up to shut down the Nats. This is but a mere step.

 

No, this isn't anything new. Every team, every year has a game or more where they need to bring up someone from the bullpen or minors to start a game in a pinch. They try to get 4 innings, with a long reliever following him. You can call Peralta a tandem starter, piggyback, whatever you want but it's the same thing as long relief.

 

Sorry, this new philosophy you've been touting is not becoming true. Also, I like the way you keep saying "it's coming." That way you can never be wrong.

 

This is a little different in that they technically have a starter available to take the turn in Peralta, so it isn't a true bullpen game. It's more of a "our young starter sucks in the first inning, so lets throw the noodles against a wall" game. Results are pretty much the same though.

 

He said, largely circumstantial.

 

What I want to talk about is what I think is the blueprint of the perfect pitching staff for a small to mid-market team like the crew. The idea of 9-10 starter type arms that tbbc talked about in past posts is the answere for a team that can’t afford the Max Scherzer’s. 5 non-ace starters that can keep the team in the game, if their pitching well, let them pitch or take them out before the 3rd time thru, replaced by the starter( whose the better arm than the middle reliever) that can go 3 + strong to finish or get you to high lev arm that can close.

 

If a pen has 4 or 5 starter arms they don’t need a Claudio. 3-4 high lev back end arms that can go 2 innings if needed, with quality starter arms would give you a well rested pen.

 

No Barnes Williams type arms on this staff.

 

My pen for the crew later in year:

 

Burnes( 2-4 innings )

Woodruff( 2-4 innings)

Peralta( 2-4 innings)

Guerra(2-4 innings)

 

Jeffress

Claudio

Hader

Rasmussen/deadline aquisition

 

Then in playoffs replace Claudio with position player.

 

That would be a true superpen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

He said, largely circumstantial.

 

What I want to talk about is what I think is the brilliant blueprint of the perfect pitching staff for a small to mid-market team like the crew. The idea of 9-10 starter type arms that tbbc talked about in past posts is the answere for a team that can’t afford the Max Scherzer’s. 5 non-ace starters that can keep the team in the game, if their pitching well, let them pitch or take them out before the 3rd time thru, replaced by the starter( whose the better arm than the middle reliever) that can go 3 + strong to finish or get you to high lev arm that can close.

 

If a pen has 4 or 5 starter arms they don’t need a Claudio. 3-4 high lev back end arms that can go 2 innings if needed, with quality starter arms would give you a well rested pen.

 

No Barnes Williams type arms on this staff.

 

My pen for the crew later in year:

 

Burnes( 2-4 innings )

Woodruff( 2-4 innings)

Peralta( 2-4 innings)

Guerra(2-4 innings)

 

Jeffress

Claudio

Hader

Rasmussen/deadline aquisition

 

Then in playoffs replace Claudio with position player.

 

That would be a true superpen.

 

Claudio is a matchup nightmare against left-handed hitters, and has a rubber arm that you can trot out there every day. If there's any time someone like that is valuable, it's the playoffs. You may not like him, but with the price they gave up for him, and how he's been used so far, he's going to continue to be a big part of this bullpen.

 

The "opener" philosophy works in isolated cases. A team can get away with it in one or perhaps two spots in the rotation. Any more than that really limits your bullpen options, and for a team like the Brewers that regularly goes to the pen early and plays matchups, it just isn't going to be sustainable without the playoff schedule of having set days off between games.