2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Lathund]

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2811251

 

Today DRA (Deserved Run Average) finally became available on Baseball Prospectus; it needs to collect a few weeks of data first as it factors in quality of opposition and such things. It's noteworthy because of all the publicly available metrics it has the best predictive value, the highest consistency, and it also reaches that point based on much smaller samples than other metrics. I'd say the last one is the most important at this point.

 

Anyway, it's not gospel or infallible or anything, just another (rather good) data set to take into account. But it's suggesting that based on how the team has been pitching, the results normally would have been better. And thus, continuing to do what they've done would see the pitching staff as an about middle of the road staff (16th) overall. Which is worse than we'd like, but take into account the following too: Brewers have used 20 pitchers, the 10 best contributors by DRA are all on the current roster. And that this isn't an old decrepit staff, there was nothing to suggest that Chacin was suddenly that 6+ ERA guy, that Jacob Barnes is suddenly 2 runs worse than in the past, or that even Alex Wilson has gone from a career 3.44 ERA to 9.53. In other words, the perfomance so far can better be described as "meh" rather than "awful". And that getting a better picture of who will or will not best help us out, adding some new blood (Gio, Jeffress, hopefully a healthy Nelson soon), and some talented guys hopefully figuring some things out (Burnes, Peralta) should see better underlying performance, and thus better run prevention, going forward.

 

TL;DR: April stats don't tell us much of value, less than stats in any other month of the year does. DRA is better at cutting through the noise, and in doing so better at predicting the future.

[Oxy]

Does the Brewers starting staff try to pick the corners too often?

 

That's who they are, other than maybe the young guys. Chacin, Davies, Anderson and Gonzalez are finesse pitchers who need to pick the corners and get calls and/or induce soft contact. They just don't have the stuff to challenge hitters--and that's fine.

[Eye Black]

I’ve remained patient and positive, but there is no denying things look pretty grim for this group right now.

 

Here is where the Brewers currently rank among NL teams in pitching stats so far through 32 games...

 

Most earned runs allowed

 

2nd most hits allowed

 

2nd most walks allowed

 

2nd most HR allowed

 

2nd highest OPS allowed

 

Most total bases allowed

 

Fewest quality starts (just four total, next closest team has seven quality starts)

 

There are plenty more stats that look atrocious, but I decided to stop there. It has been about the worst start to the season imaginable for the Brewers pitching.

[brooks_quichenick]

[JosephC]

I’ve remained patient and positive, but there is no denying things look pretty grim for this group right now.

 

Here is where the Brewers currently rank among NL teams in pitching stats so far through 32 games...

 

Most earned runs allowed

 

2nd most hits allowed

 

2nd most walks allowed

 

2nd most HR allowed

 

2nd highest OPS allowed

 

Most total bases allowed

 

Fewest quality starts (just four total, next closest team has seven quality starts)

 

There are plenty more stats that look atrocious, but I decided to stop there. It has been about the worst start to the season imaginable for the Brewers pitching.

 

I agree from the standpoint that the results so far have been awful. But I still look at the following and....

 

Rotation = Chacin, Gonzalez, Davies, Anderson, Nelson

Bullpen = Hader, Jeffress, Woodruff, Guerra, Albers, Claudio, Burnes, Barnes

MiLB possibilities = Peralta, Williams, Houser, Hart, Wilkerson

 

I still think if that's how it settles, that it could be a pretty decent staff overall. And if one of the listed starters there flops, then Peralta could hopefully jump up and do a better job. Guerra has already seemed to be completely written off as a starter and that could be a rather hasty judgment as well. I have no problem with him remaining in the bullpen for the time-being, but he should be given starter consideration if needed.

 

I'm really starting to think the decision-makers likely made some poor judgments starting the year off and hopefully they will settle on a combination of starters/relievers that can get the job done. Is there elite talent there? Well there are a couple guys but it's far from an elite group as a whole. But there are many of the same names the Brewers played with last year, and they certainly got the job done in 2018.

[sveumrules]

I’ve remained patient and positive, but there is no denying things look pretty grim for this group right now.

 

Here is where the Brewers currently rank among NL teams in pitching stats so far through 32 games...

 

Most earned runs allowed

 

2nd most hits allowed

 

2nd most walks allowed

 

2nd most HR allowed

 

2nd highest OPS allowed

 

Most total bases allowed

 

Fewest quality starts (just four total, next closest team has seven quality starts)

 

There are plenty more stats that look atrocious, but I decided to stop there. It has been about the worst start to the season imaginable for the Brewers pitching.

 

There's no denying things have looked pretty grim over the first 32 games, that does not guarantee those same results will repeat themselves over the next 130.

 

As terrible as they've been, they still rank 5th in the NL in wins.

 

It could be much much worse.

 

DJ has transformed the Reds into a pitching juggernaut not seen since the days of Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, yet they are still only 12th in the NL in wins

 

So it goes.

[adambr2]

At some point, they just need to view Jacob Barnes as an AAA pitcher again. Send him down and let him work on things in San Antonio for most of 2019 without doing so much damage up here, don't bring him back up unless injuries necessitate it. If things start to click for him he can be an option in 2020 again.

[TURBO]

I'm just going to say it, and let the argument rage on:

 

It was a HUGE mistake letting DJ go to the Reds. His importance has had a magnifying glass attached since day one of this season.

 

You can say the pitching coach has no effect on the staff, and you can say that if he does have an effect, it is too small to worry about, but since he left, our staff has been in shambles.

 

Yes, I realize that losing Knebel and Jeffress made a giant impact, but losing DJ may have been even worse...

 

That is all.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm just going to say it, and let the argument rage on:

 

It was a HUGE mistake letting DJ go to the Reds. His importance has had a magnifying glass attached since day one of this season.

 

You can say the pitching coach has no effect on the staff, and you can say that if he does have an effect, it is too small to worry about, but since he left, our staff has been in shambles.

 

Yes, I realize that losing Knebel and Jeffress made a giant impact, but losing DJ may have been even worse...

 

That is all.

 

I was one of the strongest supporters of the "pitching coach doesn't matter" movement. Needless to say, I'm starting to see the light now. I mean, some regression on a pitching staff can be expected, but 12 of 13 guys? Really?

 

Losing Knebel obviously sucks, but he was just a part of a pretty dang great pen last year. Granted a few others aren't back, and it's early, but the promise is fleeting.

[pacopete4]

I don't remember the details but did we "let him go" or did he go to Cincy because it was closer to family?

[Boomer5]

Cincinnati’s team ERA is about two runs less than ours. Draw your own conclusions.

 

 

This has completely flip flopped recently as expected. Talking about ERA in these really small samples is just silly. It takes 500 IP for ERA to mean anything at all and over 1000 innings for it to mean a ton, it is just an awful metric to try to judge a rotation by.

 

Nothing about this current Brewer staff suggests they have anything in common with our previous years pitching success. If you want to wait for the sample size argument to play itself out knock yourself out but it’s pretty clear things need to change beyond sample size.

[Lathund]

I don't remember the details but did we "let him go" or did he go to Cincy because it was closer to family?

 

Closer to family, and a lot more money, apparently. They also got the Dodgers' hitting coach the same way.

 

Who knows if there was anything that could have been done to keep him here, but I hope the club tried everything. Not that I think that the struggles are entirely, or even mostly, due to a change in pitching coach; in particular, I Don't think a coach has the kind of negative effect, i.e that if DJ had the entire pitching staff at their best, that doesn't just go away in a few month, no matter what. The other way around I could see it, that a pitching staff with great stuff but flawed execution could get a lot better quickly. But yeah, so while I don't subscribe to the commonly proposed theory that DJ is worth like 3 ERA (+1.5 for us, -1.5 for the Reds), I obviously would have preferred it had he stuck around, as it clearly has *some* effect.

[Boomer5]

I'm just going to say it, and let the argument rage on:

 

It was a HUGE mistake letting DJ go to the Reds. His importance has had a magnifying glass attached since day one of this season.

 

You can say the pitching coach has no effect on the staff, and you can say that if he does have an effect, it is too small to worry about, but since he left, our staff has been in shambles.

 

Yes, I realize that losing Knebel and Jeffress made a giant impact, but losing DJ may have been even worse...

 

That is all.

 

I was one of the strongest supporters of the "pitching coach doesn't matter" movement. Needless to say, I'm starting to see the light now. I mean, some regression on a pitching staff can be expected, but 12 of 13 guys? Really?

 

Losing Knebel obviously sucks, but he was just a part of a pretty dang great pen last year. Granted a few others aren't back, and it's early, but the promise is fleeting.

 

I have never pitched but I am a big golfer. I have gone through about a dozen instructors in my life and only one seemed to figure out how to help when I’d go into a funk. A coach matters and matters big.

 

We had our LaRussa and Duncan. Why would not try to keep them is amazing. I’d be shocked if the cost was more than our worst player.

 

The cost of a pitching coach is less than we pay Albers. Talk about market opportunity and ROI!

[coolhandluke121]

 

Nothing about this current Brewer staff suggests they have anything in common with our previous years pitching success. If you want to wait for the sample size argument to play itself out knock yourself out but it’s pretty clear things need to change beyond sample size.

 

A bigger data set should arguably be the last thing we want right now.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Perhaps Johnson sought greener pastures because he saw the folly in strategizing to avoid starters pitching deep into lineups without a staff constructed to handle the short outings. The Brewers are stuck in a period of transition, it's ugly, and they're paying to price for it. At least it's fixable.

[adambr2]

I've always believed that a pitching coach probably has more affect on a team's W/L record over the year than a manager. A manager matters, but at the end of the day, they all make 90% of the same decisions as the rest of them.

 

Pitching is different. It's a craft and there's so much involved that the pitching coach needs to be mindful of for each guy -- adjustments, watching for signs of injury, arm slot, delivery, landing, balance, as well as being a good communicator.

Hitting coach matters too, but not so much as a pitching coach.

 

You could argue that pitching coach isn't going to make as much of a difference for veteran guys, but it's probably even more important when you have the youthful pitching that we have.

 

I thought Hook would do better solely on the fact that he's been working with these young starters already, but obviously that hasn't been the case. I don't know much about him at all, and I do think that there needs to be a larger sample before calling for his head.

 

But certainly early returns haven't been good and yes, losing Derek Johnson mattered.

[Roderick]

 

 

As terrible as they've been, they still rank 5th in the NL in wins.

 

Counting stat. The Brewers have played more games then anyone else other than the Dodgers. Win% they are 7th in the league (and out of the playoffs).

 

Of course that will benefit them later. They have played four more games than the Cubs so far this year and will get a day off here and there more than them.

[TURBO]

I am not calling for anyone's head, just making the observation that DJ mattered to this team. I have seen plenty of times people saying the pitching coach doesn't matter. I think we are seeing that as being false.

[wildcat83]

 

I have zero concern with our rotation, depth and upside best it’s been in a long time maybe ever. We have 7 above ave starters with 2-4 potential TOR in my opinion. Which should bode well this deadline hopefully not needing that expensive starter.

 

 

Concerned yet?

 

There are a LOT of posts that did not age well in this thread... including my own. I doubted the starting rotation, but thought we had enough arms in the pen to hide a few flaws. Neither side of the pen/rotation argument turned out well, and I don't think anyone saw it coming where both sucked this deep into the season.

 

Right now we really need Anderson to return to the rotation when healthy, and getting a good Jimmy Nelson back would help as well, but man did every possible regression candidate happen so far.

[Ennder]

I am not calling for anyone's head, just making the observation that DJ mattered to this team. I have seen plenty of times people saying the pitching coach doesn't matter. I think we are seeing that as being false.

 

 

No we really aren't. We are seeing a tiny sample of IP and making wild speculative judgements about it that really mean very little.

 

Chacin is one good game away from pitching to expectation. Davies has been better than we expected. Anderson was pitching well before he got hurt. Woodruff's peripherals are solid and is also really just 1 good game away from expectations.

 

So you are saying the pitching coach is obviously the flaw here because two guys they were hesitant to put in the rotation last season started the year poorly. There is no logic in that.

[brewers888]

I'm just going to say it, and let the argument rage on:

 

It was a HUGE mistake letting DJ go to the Reds. His importance has had a magnifying glass attached since day one of this season.

 

You can say the pitching coach has no effect on the staff, and you can say that if he does have an effect, it is too small to worry about, but since he left, our staff has been in shambles.

 

Yes, I realize that losing Knebel and Jeffress made a giant impact, but losing DJ may have been even worse...

 

That is all.

 

I don't know how much more people need to see to realize what a huge loss Johnson is to this pitching staff. Nearly every pitcher has seriously regressed especially our young trio of starters. Meanwhile Cincy with one talented starter has been pitching lights out as a staff all year long.

 

The question I have is were we just cheap with Johnson or were there issues between him and Counsell and/or Stearns. Anyway you slice it we are paying a big price for letting Derek go. A smart team is going to hire Johnson next offseason as a manager but we should have at least had him until someone made that move on him.

 

Lets also remember that we let Lee Tunnel go as well. Why was he let go when the staff was so good last year especially the bullpen where he coached.

[tmwiese55]

Of course the pitching coach isn't the end all be all. But think of it this simply of how many times the last year or two many of us attributed credit to him for him fixing this guy or improving that guy. But then he's gone and we try to justify its ok by saying he really didn't matter. I mean, we were basically talking about him here like he was a pitching guru/magician.

 

We of course have no idea how the negotiation went though so it's tough to blame anyone. For all we know he was just dead set on being in Cincy due to his family and some personal reasons. Sure, if it was just over a small amount of money I'd be annoyed they didn't pay it, but we have no way of knowing the reality.

[adambr2]

Of course the pitching coach isn't the end all be all. But think of it this simply of how many times the last year or two many of us attributed credit to him for him fixing this guy or improving that guy. But then he's gone and we try to justify its ok by saying he really didn't matter. I mean, we were basically talking about him here like he was a pitching guru/magician.

 

We of course have no idea how the negotiation went though so it's tough to blame anyone. For all we know he was just dead set on being in Cincy due to his family and some personal reasons. Sure, if it was just over a small amount of money I'd be annoyed they didn't pay it, but we have no way of knowing the reality.

 

That's totally fair. I'm bothered that we let him walk, but I don't know the circumstances. Maybe it wasn't about the money and he just had his heart set on Cincy. I hope it had nothing to do with us being cheap or some dumb grudge in the organization, but I can't assume it did. So I can't be mad. But yeah, we talked up DJ so much last year --."DJ will fix him", "DJ can work his magic", etc. Then he leaves and some act like he didn't matter at all. Doesn't work that way.

[82brewcrew82]

You mean like last year when everyone wanted to fire Coles. So they fired Coles and this year everyone is exactly the same hitter, or worse, than they were last year? Blaming the coach is lazy. Execute a pitch or two and things will probably turn out different.

[tmwiese55]

You mean like last year when everyone wanted to fire Coles. So they fired Coles and this year everyone is exactly the same hitter, or worse, than they were last year? Blaming the coach is lazy. Execute a pitch or two and things will probably turn out different.

 

I think everyone would agree pitching coach matters way more than hitting coach. I was one that just wanted to shake it up but I would never make the case hitting coach is huge. I watched STL with Duncan for too long to not think pitching coach matters. Or at least, having an elite one matters. Maybe all the guys in the middle won't be much different, but if you have one of the top top guys he makes a difference. And we might've had that guy.

 

That said, I really like how much better a guy like Moose has been going opposite field this year. And we are scoring more runs than last year. Which they should be though with having Moose and Grandal all year vs the scrubs at those two positions last year. For the most part, yea not much has changed on the hitting though. IDK though, I'd be curious of the stats on leaving guys on base, RISP, and especially the stranding guys on 3rd with less than 2 outs that so many lamented about last year. That doesn't seem to be as bad this year so far at least.