2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[rickh150]

 

Burnes will likely be one of Milwaukee’s most crucial starters, given the relative youth anticipated to be in the Brewers’ rotation. His fastball/slider combination in 2018 proved to be effective. But he is expected to use his changeup, a pitch he seldom featured, with more frequency.

 

“What people don’t see is his changeup,” Graham said. “His changeup is filthy. I went and looked at my report. His changeup was like a left-handed slider since it had so much sink and run on it. Since he’s in a reliever role, we don’t see it that much. It’s one of his best pitches that nobody knows about.”

 

Very exciting to hear. That's all that was missing to this point in the majors. If he makes proper use of an effective enough changeup, watch out.

 

If his changeup is THAT good of a pitch, he should be throwing it somewhat out of the pen as well. No reason to sit on it. It's hard to argue the results so far, though.

[SRB]

Nelson hasn't pitched in a live game in well over a year. He's definitely going to be on a different pace than everybody else, though I wouldn't read into it that there are still lingering injury issues.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

If his changeup is THAT good of a pitch, he should be throwing it somewhat out of the pen as well. No reason to sit on it. It's hard to argue the results so far, though.

 

Well Graham could be exaggerating about its "nastyness". It's still almost assuredly Burnes' 3rd best pitch. And when you're in the pen, going once through the order at most, there's no reason to throw anything but your best stuff. If Burnes can match Peralta's ability to keep hitters off balance multiple times through, the Brewers are sitting pretty. Collectively they've likely already got the arms to cover the needed innings to avoid having to send pitchers out deep into games when the splits would be working against them.

[clancyphile]

Nelson hasn't pitched in a live game in well over a year. He's definitely going to be on a different pace than everybody else, though I wouldn't read into it that there are still lingering injury issues.

 

Nelson has an option left, and I see him in AAA to start - using a month or two to get him back into game shape beyond spring training.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

At what point would the brewers look to extend Chacin for 2 years? Or is that not likely an option. Personally like the guy and how steady he was last year.

[JosephC]

Well now that it sounds like Nelson enters spring training with "no restrictions," how do people see the pitching staff shaping up?

 

This is kind of what I see it looking on opening day unless more moves are made (or an unfortunate injury occurs).

-Takes into account that the Brewers do not have many off-days early....I think they probably do start with 13 pitchers.

-Does Counsell really favor veteran players? I guess I'm not convinced but a couple moves here does reflect that (Guerra over Burnes and Woodruff in rotation, Albers in pen).

-Stearns trying to keep as much talent as he can (Houser on opening day roster as he is out of options).

 

I'd guess-

 

Rotation:

Jhoulys Chacin

Junior Guerra

Jimmy Nelson

Chase Anderson

Zach Davies

 

Bullpen:

Adrian Houser

Brandon Woodruff

Matt Albers

Alex Claudio

Corbin Burnes

Josh Hader

Jeremy Jeffress

Corey Knebel

 

Minors:

Freddy Peralta

Taylor Williams

Bobby Wahl

Jacob Barnes

Jake Petricka

Aaron Wilkerson

Marcos Diplan

Trey Supak

 

60 day DL - Brent Suter

 

And if they aren't being altogether truthful about Nelson and he does start the season on the DL....then Burnes goes from the bullpen to the rotation and Taylor Williams from the minors to the bullpen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well now that it sounds like Nelson enters spring training with "no restrictions," how do people see the pitching staff shaping up?

 

This is kind of what I see it looking on opening day unless more moves are made (or an unfortunate injury occurs).

-Takes into account that the Brewers do not have many off-days early....I think they probably do start with 13 pitchers.

-Does Counsell really favor veteran players? I guess I'm not convinced but a couple moves here does reflect that (Guerra over Burnes and Woodruff in rotation, Albers in pen).

-Stearns trying to keep as much talent as he can (Houser on opening day roster as he is out of options).

 

I'd guess-

 

Rotation:

Jhoulys Chacin

Junior Guerra

Jimmy Nelson

Chase Anderson

Zach Davies

 

Bullpen:

Adrian Houser

Brandon Woodruff

Matt Albers

Alex Claudio

Corbin Burnes

Josh Hader

Jeremy Jeffress

Corey Knebel

 

Minors:

Freddy Peralta

Taylor Williams

Bobby Wahl

Jacob Barnes

Jake Petricka

Aaron Wilkerson

Marcos Diplan

Trey Supak

 

60 day DL - Brent Suter

 

And if they aren't being altogether truthful about Nelson and he does start the season on the DL....then Burnes goes from the bullpen to the rotation and Taylor Williams from the minors to the bullpen.

 

1) Guerra was quoted last month saying that the Brewers have already informed him that he'll be in the pen in 2019. He was electric there, so that makes a lot of sense in my opinion. I think he's done as a starter with the Brewers, though, barring the unforeseen. If nothing changes roster-wise, Burnes slides into that spot.

 

2) I agree on Houser. I predict he looks strong in Spring Training and makes the team as a reliever. He's going to have to pitch well to maintain his spot, though. I just hate to give up on that kind of arm.

 

3) I also agree on Peralta heading to AAA. There's just no room at the inn, especially if they have to keep Houser up full time. I predict he'll make a big contribution to the 2019 MLB squad, though. Just maybe not in April.

 

4) Its really cool having power arms like Williams, Wahl and Petricka at their disposal at AAA. That shuttle is gonna get a lot of work.

 

5) Predictions - a) One of Davies or Anderson is dealt before the start of the season. b) Trey Supak is a breakout star in AAA, and makes an impact at the ML level.

[long ball]

At what point would the brewers look to extend Chacin for 2 years? Or is that not likely an option. Personally like the guy and how steady he was last year.

 

What incentive would they have to extend Chacin right now? He was very good last year, but he's under contract for next season. Based on how the past two off seasons have gone, I'm not sure he'd get two guaranteed years as a free agent next season. Probably makes more sense for the Brewers to let this season play out and if he's good again try to re-sign him as a free agent.

 

I just don't think the risk is worth it for them at this point.

[wntrtxn21]

I wouldn't be upset if both Davies and Anderson were slated for rotation spots going into 2019, but both are solid mid-rotation starters on affordable deals who will likely be very appealing to teams with starting pitching shortages. That's why I personally think one, or even both, will be traded before Spring Training, and likely for a return that most are surprisingly impressed with. It would surprise me if they don't go with a stated traditional 5-man rotation to start the season at least. Guerra has already said that the Brewers have him preparing for a pen role next year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be one of the top options, health provided. He looked terrific coming out of the pen at the end of last year, and his arsenal of pitches is a good fit there.

 

With Claudio and Hader both being lefties capable of going multiple innings, they are likely fine with their LHRP depth. I agree that they probably want another lefty starter, though, and will likely look at doing a 2-year deal with Miley if they don't go bigger for someone like Bumgarner or Kuechel.

 

I can't see Claudio going multiple innings unless the opposition has a ton of LH batters or he is the last resort. Righties hit an incredible .369/.404 off him last year. Plus he allowed 91 hits in only 68 IPs. I think he is a LOOGY or maybe a couple of hitters if they are both LH. With Miley gone and it looks like Stearns doesn't want anything to do with Gio, a trade for a lefty is all that's left. I think you're right, they do need a lefty starter in the NL Centra.

[wntrtxn21]

Well now that it sounds like Nelson enters spring training with "no restrictions," how do people see the pitching staff shaping up?

 

This is kind of what I see it looking on opening day unless more moves are made (or an unfortunate injury occurs).

-Takes into account that the Brewers do not have many off-days early....I think they probably do start with 13 pitchers.

-Does Counsell really favor veteran players? I guess I'm not convinced but a couple moves here does reflect that (Guerra over Burnes and Woodruff in rotation, Albers in pen).

-Stearns trying to keep as much talent as he can (Houser on opening day roster as he is out of options).

 

I'd guess-

 

Rotation:

Jhoulys Chacin

Junior Guerra

Jimmy Nelson

Chase Anderson

Zach Davies

 

Bullpen:

Adrian Houser

Brandon Woodruff

Matt Albers

Alex Claudio

Corbin Burnes

Josh Hader

Jeremy Jeffress

Corey Knebel

 

Minors:

Freddy Peralta

Taylor Williams

Bobby Wahl

Jacob Barnes

Jake Petricka

Aaron Wilkerson

Marcos Diplan

Trey Supak

 

60 day DL - Brent Suter

 

And if they aren't being altogether truthful about Nelson and he does start the season on the DL....then Burnes goes from the bullpen to the rotation and Taylor Williams from the minors to the bullpen.

 

1) Guerra was quoted last month saying that the Brewers have already informed him that he'll be in the pen in 2019. He was electric there, so that makes a lot of sense in my opinion. I think he's done as a starter with the Brewers, though, barring the unforeseen. If nothing changes roster-wise, Burnes slides into that spot.

 

2) I agree on Houser. I predict he looks strong in Spring Training and makes the team as a reliever. He's going to have to pitch well to maintain his spot, though. I just hate to give up on that kind of arm.

 

3) I also agree on Peralta heading to AAA. There's just no room at the inn, especially if they have to keep Houser up full time. I predict he'll make a big contribution to the 2019 MLB squad, though. Just maybe not in April.

 

4) Its really cool having power arms like Williams, Wahl and Petricka at their disposal at AAA. That shuttle is gonna get a lot of work.

 

5) Predictions - a) One of Davies or Anderson is dealt before the start of the season. b) Trey Supak is a breakout star in AAA, and makes an impact at the ML level.

 

I can't see Houser making the roster in any capacity. He stunk in the minors last year and wasn't much in the majors. I think Williams is far better. Barnes is also better suited for the majors than Houser. Guerra is headed for the pen and provided they don't sign a lefty, I believe Woodruff will get the call as the 5th starter. Burnes is also a strong possibility to start if Woodruff falters. Wilkerson may be a dark horse as well as Brown. An awful lot depends on if MLB dumps the 10-day DL and goes back to the 15-day DL.

[RollieTime]

I don’t see us being a player for any free agent pitchers unless it is on a minor league deal.

 

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

Davies

Anderson

 

I think Woodruff will stay in the bullpen where he had great success last season and can spot start if needed. Guerra can spot start if needed as well. Peralta should start in AAA and slide into the rotation if Nelson isn’t ready by opening day or when an injury arises.

[KeithStone53151]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

[Warning Track Power]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

A rotation of Chacin-Woodruff-Peralta-Burnes and (cross your fingers, pray to God, give Jobu some rum) healthy Nelson is sexy. With Anderson and Davies waiting in the wings in the pen with Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Claudio and Guerra...MAN. Sign Moustakas and lengthen the lineup.

[istanbultaye]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

A rotation of Chacin-Woodruff-Peralta-Burnes and (cross your fingers, pray to God, give Jobu some rum) healthy Nelson is sexy. With Anderson and Davies waiting in the wings in the pen with Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Claudio and Guerra...MAN. Sign Moustakas and lengthen the lineup.

 

I think Anderson or Davies would take Peralta's spot barring absurdly good/bad spring training results, due to veteran grit, service time, roster flexibility, and Peralta's overall inconsistency last year. I don't think it would hurt Peralta any to be in the minors again to work on his control a little more either.

[FVBrewerFan]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

 

I'm still not counting on Nelson being a factor until/unless he can show the same velo he has pre-injury. Even then I won't be optimistic until I see he can maintain it throughout even 3-4 innings over several games. First he has to touch that upper range, then he needs to be able to stay there. Sorry to be a buzzkill, but all this "on track" talk is better than the alternative but still doesn't mean much to me.

[Mudville9]

I agree, I think we are looking at:

 

Chacin

Burnes

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

...with Peralta and Nelson in AAA to start the year. A lefty would sure like nice in the middle of that rotation, but as long as Peralta and/or Nelson get the call up when/if ready I am ok with it. We will also have guys that move fluidly between AAA and MLB like we did last year to keep everyone fresh, I would assume.

[JosephC]

A couple tidbits from McCalvy. Nelson throws a 45 pitch bullpen with full arsenal, and Burnes is told he will be a starter in 2019.

 

 

McCalvy is also guessing that Burnes starts the year in AAA.

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-opening-day-roster-prediction/c-303759980

[clancyphile]

I agree, I think we are looking at:

 

Chacin

Burnes

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

...with Peralta and Nelson in AAA to start the year. A lefty would sure like nice in the middle of that rotation, but as long as Peralta and/or Nelson get the call up when/if ready I am ok with it. We will also have guys that move fluidly between AAA and MLB like we did last year to keep everyone fresh, I would assume.

 

I see it as Chacin, Anderson, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff in the rotation to start, and Nelson and Davies in San Antonio, given the time they missed last year. If Anderson starts hot, the Crew deals him for prospects, and whichever one of Nelson/Davies is doing better comes up. Probably Davies, as I think Nelson will need to shake a lot of rust off.

[wntrtxn21]

Starters: Burnes, Chacin, Anderson, Davies

Middle: Woodruff, Nelson, Peralta, Guerra

Pen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio, Houser

 

I've got Barnes, Williams, Wahl, and Diplan in AAA as the first guys up for the pitching staff, with Supak as a deeper option. Albers is released, but could end up making the team if he has an impressive spring, which might result in Houser being moved.

 

I think they will ease Nelson back in in 2019 in more of the middle/piggyback role that they value highly rather than as a traditional starter. Just a hunch.

 

There's 13, and I categorized the pitching staff a bit differently to reflect our continued blurring of the starter/reliever lines. The lack of lefties in the starter/middle category is pretty glaring and I think that will probably be addressed before the season, whether it be Bumgarner or Miley or Gio. If so, bump Peralta or Guerra down to AAA for now.[/quot

 

It won't be Miley because he signed already with someone else. It's looking less likely that Bumgarner is going to go anywhere. I don't think Stearns thinks much of Gio so I believe he goes into the season all right-handed. I think they keep Williams over Houser or Albers if he is truly over his injury and can pitch like he did early last year and the year before.

[Ennder]

So lets look at this from an IP standpoint.

 

I can't project Nelson for more than 175 IP since he hasn't reached 180 yet and he was injured all of last season. Chacin is probably 180-190 IP. Anderson has never thrown over 160 that is probably his peak projection. Hard to envision Davies with much more than 160 IP. Burnes is probably capped at about 150 IP. Woodruff capped at about 150. They probably need at least 2 more starters in this mix even if everyone stays healthy. That would be Guerra and Peralta but that is assuming everything goes well. I guess that is why they drafted Tomlin for depth but I think they need at least one more depth guy.

[brewmann04]

Nelson is still a darkhorse and still think Anderson is traded and we add Keuchel.

[cesser000]

So lets look at this from an IP standpoint.

 

I can't project Nelson for more than 175 IP since he hasn't reached 180 yet and he was injured all of last season. Chacin is probably 180-190 IP. Anderson has never thrown over 160 that is probably his peak projection. Hard to envision Davies with much more than 160 IP. Burnes is probably capped at about 150 IP. Woodruff capped at about 150. They probably need at least 2 more starters in this mix even if everyone stays healthy. That would be Guerra and Peralta but that is assuming everything goes well. I guess that is why they drafted Tomlin for depth but I think they need at least one more depth guy.

If the Brewers go full-bore all season with the bullpen as they did the latter part of last year, 150 innings per guy is probably enough. That's roughly 30 starts each at 5 innings per, which was at the upper-limit of what their starters were throwing anyway.

[Jenkins5]

If Brewers want to try for the longer version on 1st out getters think you almost should enter season with:

1st out getters

Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Davies, Anderson

 

2nd out getters

Peralta, Woodruff, Guerra

 

Middle out getters (6th & 7th)

Claudio & 1 of Williams, Houser, Wahl, Barnes, Albers

 

High leverage late out getters

Hader, Jeffress, Knebel

 

Don’t think it will work out this way but with the 3 long arms who can give you 3-4 innings when needed will help keep keep arms fresh. I don’t think Brewers will do the bullpening again until late in season.

 

Lot of quality arms to pick from! Spring will be fun!

[Baldkin]

I really hope Albers comes back healthy. He clearly was never right after he got hurt in June.

 

His first 28IP last year he was 1.93 ERA, .653 OPS against and a 1.03 WHIP.

 

Then he got hurt and his last 6.1 IP was a 31.26 ERA, 1.717 OPS against and a 4.59 WHIP.

 

I mean.... wow.

[KeithStone53151]

If Brewers want to try for the longer version on 1st out getters think you almost should enter season with:

1st out getters

Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Davies, Anderson

 

2nd out getters

Peralta, Woodruff, Guerra

 

Middle out getters (6th & 7th)

Claudio & 1 of Williams, Houser, Wahl, Barnes, Albers

 

High leverage late out getters

Hader, Jeffress, Knebel

 

Don’t think it will work out this way but with the 3 long arms who can give you 3-4 innings when needed will help keep keep arms fresh. I don’t think Brewers will do the bullpening again until late in season.

 

Lot of quality arms to pick from! Spring will be fun!

 

If your goal is to completely wreck the back end of the bullpen by July, this is a great plan. Joe Maddon would be proud.